Consulting

The European Central Bank is now making the economic case for decarbonisation. Not as climate policy. As monetary policy. Frank Elderson, ECB board member, argues in the Financial Times that Europe's dependence on imported fossil fuels is a structural threat to price stability (👉 https://lnkd.in/eKWWjKbh). The data is damning: energy price shocks pushed euro area inflation to 10.6% in October 2022. Every geopolitical tremor in the Middle East shows up in European energy bills. And the ECB is caught in an impossible bind: tighten to fight inflation and deepen the slowdown, ease to support growth and entrench inflation. The solution is not better forecasting models or finetuned monetary policy. It is cheaper energy. Spain shows what is possible. Wholesale electricity prices in early 2024 were approximately 40% lower than they would have been had wind and solar generation remained at 2019 levels ( 👉 https://lnkd.in/edXgxh9q). Once the infrastructure is built, the energy itself is virtually free. Volatile global commodity markets simply become less relevant. Elderson is explicit: €660 billion per year in clean energy investment sounds large. But Europe already spends nearly €400 billion annually on fossil fuel imports, money that leaves the continent and buys geopolitical vulnerability. Analysis in the UK shows that for every pound invested in sustainable energy, benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 2.2 to 4.1 ( 👉 https://lnkd.in/emEXVfiw). This is precisely what I argued in my piece for Triodos a few weeks ago: Europe's crisis response has been backwards. We keep treating energy dependence as a shock to manage rather than a structural problem to fix. (👉https://lnkd.in/ehFqA6iY) The ECB cannot decarbonise Europe. What it can do is name the conditions: keep the ETS, mobilise capital toward renewable capacity, strip out fossil fuel subsidies, and stop confusing cheap fossil fuels with affordable energy. If people need help with energy costs, target it: don't suppress the price signal that drives the transition. The cheapest energy is the energy we no longer have to import.

🌍 We Can’t Afford to Get Climate Policy Wrong—A Look at the Data Behind What Really Works 🌍 In the race against time to combat climate change, bold promises are everywhere. But here’s the critical question: Are the policies being implemented actually reducing emissions at the scale we need? A groundbreaking study published in Science, cuts through the noise and delivers the insights we desperately need. Evaluating 1,500 climate policies from around the world, the research identifies the 63 most effective ones—policies that have delivered tangible, significant reductions in emissions. What’s striking is that the most successful strategies often involve combinations of policies, rather than single initiatives. Think of it as the ultimate teamwork: when policies like carbon pricing, renewable energy mandates, and efficiency standards are combined thoughtfully, the impact is far greater than any one policy could achieve on its own. It’s a powerful reminder that for climate solutions the whole is indeed greater than the sum of its parts. Moreover, the study’s use of counterfactual emissions pathways is a game changer. By showing what would have happened without these policies, it provides a clear, quantifiable measure of their effectiveness. This is exactly the kind of rigorous evaluation we need to ensure that every policy counts, especially when we’re working against the clock. If we’re serious about meeting the Paris Agreement’s targets, we need to focus on what works—and this research offers a clear roadmap. Let’s champion policies that have proven to make a difference, because we don’t have time to waste on anything less. 🔗 Full study in the comments #ClimateAction #Sustainability #PolicyEffectiveness #ParisAgreement #NetZero #ClimateScience

🚫 How to Run UX Research Without Access To Users. With practical techniques to avoid guesswork and gather insights if you can’t talk directly to users. Attached cheatsheet (with and without access to users) by Nielsen Norman Group. 🚫 Ask for reasons for no access to users: there might be none. ✅ First, study job openings to map existing workflows/tasks. ✅ Make friends with sales, customer success, support, QA. ✅ Find colleagues who are the closest to your customers. ✅ Convey your questions indirectly via your colleagues. ✅ If you can’t get users to come to you, go where they are. ✅ Ask to observe or shadow customers at their workplace. ✅ Listen in to customer calls and interview call centre staff. ✅ Request access to analytics, CRM reports, call centre logs. ✅ Use Google Trends to find product-related search queries. ✅ Gather insights from search logs, Jira backlog, support tickets. ✅ Explore past/ongoing NPS and Voice-of-Customer programs. ✅ Study reviews, discussions, comments for your product/competitors. ✅ Map key themes and user sentiment on TrustPilot, AppStore etc. ✅ Recruit users via UserTesting, Wynter (B2B), Maze, UserInterviews. ✅ Ask for small but steady commitments: 5 users × 30 mins, 1× month. 🚫 Avoid ad-hoc research: set up regular check-ins and timelines. As H Locke noted, if we shed the light strongly enough from many sources, we might end up getting a glimpse of the truth. Ironically, the stakeholders who can’t give you time or resources to talk to users often are the first to demand evidence to support your initiatives. Sometimes the reason why companies are reluctant to grant access to users is simply the lack of trust. They don’t want to disturb relationships with big clients which is carefully maintained by the customer success team. They might feel that research is merely a technical detail that clients shouldn’t be bothered with. Show that you deeply care about that relationship and that you don’t want to disturb it any way. What you do want though is to reduce costs and risk — the risk of drawing wide-reaching conclusions from very little research, or none at all. Your best shot is to explain research as a powerful risk mitigation tool. And: search for people whose priorities align with yours — people who value and see the impact of UX in their units. They would absolutely love to support your work because it also supports their work — and they will put up a good word for you if they only had known that you existed. ✤ Useful resources: UX Research Cheat Sheet, by Susan Farrell from NN/g (attached) https://lnkd.in/eUTHKWvF What Can You Do When You Have No Access To Users?, by H Locke https://lnkd.in/ewHEKhBS UX Research When You Can’t Talk To Users, by Chris Myhill https://lnkd.in/ez5-b6zf #ux #research

This is the most underrated way to use Claude: (and it has nothing to do with writing or coding) It's competitive intelligence. Using data that's free, public, and updated every single week. Here's my extract step by step guide: Step 1. Go to claude .ai. Step 2. Select the new Claude "Opus 4.6." Step 3. Turn on "Extended Thinking." Step 4. Pick a competitor. Go to their careers page. Step 5. Copy every open job listing into one doc. (Title. Team name. Location. Full description) Step 6. Save it as one .txt or .docx file. Step 7. Search the company at EDGAR (sec .gov) Step 8. Download its recent 10-K or 10-Q filing. (Official strategy, risks, and financials - all public.) Step 9. Upload both files to Claude Opus 4.6. Step 10. Paste this exact prompt: "You are a competitive intelligence analyst at a rival company. I've uploaded [Company]'s complete current job listings and their most recent SEC filing. Perform a strategic intelligence analysis: → Cluster these roles by what they suggest is being built. Don't use the team names they've listed. Infer the actual product initiatives from the skills, tools, and responsibilities described. → Identify capabilities or teams that appear entirely new — not mentioned anywhere in the SEC filing. These are unreleased bets. → Find roles where seniority is disproportionately high for a new team. This signals executive-level priority. → Cross-reference the SEC filing's Risk Factors and Strategy sections with hiring patterns. Where are they investing against a stated risk? Where did they flag a risk but have zero hiring to address it? → Predict 3 product launches or strategic moves this company will make in the next 6-12 months. State your confidence level and cite specific job titles and filing sections as evidence. Format this as a 1-page competitive intelligence briefing for a CMO." What you'll find: → Products that don't exist yet but will in 6 months. → Priorities that contradict what the CEO said. → Risks they told the SEC but aren't addressing. This is what consulting firms charge $200K for. It took me 10 minutes. I used the new Claude 'Opus 4.6' for a reason: ✦ It read 60 job listing & a 200-page filing together.  ✦ And connects dots across both. ✦ It is superior in thinking and context retrieval. That's why I didn't use ChatGPT for this.

Great seeing our paper out in Science! Stefano Carattini, John List and I argue that policy evaluation should be combined with a causal analysis of public support. Starting point of our argument is that policies that are generally considered socially desirable by the scientific community are not always popular among voters, because of a lack of understanding or biased beliefs. Congestion charges and carbon taxes are a case in point. However, recent empirical studies have shown that, in cases like these, experiencing the policy may lead voters to correct their beliefs and increase their support. A credible policy evaluation may further help voters to learn about the policy's effects. Our article describes how credible policy evaluation can be fruitfully combined with a causal analysis of public support. If it becomes more widely documented that opposition to sound policies dissipates when voters experience a policy, then policy-makers may be more inclined to experiment with such policies. Learning when and why public support does not increase after policy implementation would be very important as well. Indeed, this may even lead to a change in the consensus about the policy's desirability, for instance when scientists learn that they overlooked some negative aspects of the policy that voters strongly care about. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ed2EAj9G Science Magazine

Should you try Google’s famous “20% time” experiment to encourage innovation? We tried this at Duolingo years ago. It didn’t work. It wasn’t enough time for people to start meaningful projects, and very few people took advantage of it because the framework was pretty vague. I knew there had to be other ways to drive innovation at the company. So, here are 3 other initiatives we’ve tried, what we’ve learned from each, and what we're going to try next. 💡 Innovation Awards: Annual recognition for those who move the needle with boundary-pushing projects. The upside: These awards make our commitment to innovation clear, and offer a well-deserved incentive to those who have done remarkable work. The downside: It’s given to individuals, but we want to incentivize team work. What’s more, it’s not necessarily a framework for coming up with the next big thing. 💻 Hackathon: This is a good framework, and lots of companies do it. Everyone (not just engineers) can take two days to collaborate on and present anything that excites them, as long as it advances our mission or addresses a key business need. The upside: Some of our biggest features grew out of hackathon projects, from the Duolingo English Test (born at our first hackathon in 2013) to our avatar builder. The downside: Other than the time/resource constraint, projects rarely align with our current priorities. The ones that take off hit the elusive combo of right time + a problem that no other team could tackle. 💥 Special Projects: Knowing that ideal equation, we started a new program for fostering innovation, playfully dubbed DARPA (Duolingo Advanced Research Project Agency). The idea: anyone can pitch an idea at any time. If they get consensus on it and if it’s not in the purview of another team, a cross-functional group is formed to bring the project to fruition. The most creative work tends to happen when a problem is not in the clear purview of a particular team; this program creates a path for bringing these kinds of interdisciplinary ideas to life. Our Duo and Lily mascot suits (featured often on our social accounts) came from this, as did our Duo plushie and the merch store. (And if this photo doesn't show why we needed to innovate for new suits, I don't know what will!) The biggest challenge: figuring out how to transition ownership of a successful project after the strike team’s work is done. 👀 What’s next? We’re working on a program that proactively identifies big picture, unassigned problems that we haven’t figured out yet and then incentivizes people to create proposals for solving them. How that will work is still to be determined, but we know there is a lot of fertile ground for it to take root. How does your company create an environment of creativity that encourages true innovation? I'm interested to hear what's worked for you, so please feel free to share in the comments! #duolingo #innovation #hackathon #creativity #bigideas

Most healthcare AI doesn't stall because models underperform. It stalls because infrastructure is fragmented. We are no longer constrained by algorithmic creativity. We are constrained by data silos, privacy governance, interoperability gaps, compute access, and the operational friction of translating retrospective research into prospective clinical impact. This brief examines this structural bottleneck through the Mayo Clinic Platform. The authors focus on something foundational: building an AI-ready ecosystem designed to accelerate real-world clinical research at scale. The platform provides a secure, cloud-based research environment built on de-identified, standardized EHR data from more than 15 million patients. Key capabilities include: ⭐ OMOP-aligned data models for interoperability ⭐ Structured and unstructured data ⭐ Cohort-building and schema exploration tools ⭐ Integrated workspaces with scalable CPU/GPU infrastructure ⭐ Both no-code and advanced coding environments Unlike traditional institutional repositories, Mayo Clinic Platform enables access for external researchers, supports federated multi-institutional data contributions, and embeds analytics within a privacy-preserving architecture. The paper highlights four applied studies conducted within MCP: 1️⃣ RCT emulation for heart failure drug efficacy using observational data 2️⃣ Validation of antihypertensive medications and reduced dementia risk 3️⃣ Deep learning prediction of mild cognitive impairment progression to Alzheimer’s disease 4️⃣ Neural network prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events after liver transplantation Extracting a cohort of ~15,000 patients took approximately one week. Training and running a deep learning model required roughly 10 minutes on moderate compute resources. When infrastructure friction is minimized, research velocity changes materially. Competitive advantage in healthcare AI is increasingly defined by: 💫 Data harmonization at scale 💫 Federated, privacy-preserving architectures 💫 Reproducible research pipelines 💫 Integrated compute environments 💫 Lower barriers for clinician engagement The authors also point toward multimodal expansion (notes, imaging, genomics), large-scale cross-institutional validation, and “Clinical Trials Beyond Walls” models that broaden participation and diversify real-world evidence. For those shaping AI strategy in health systems, pharma, or digital health, this paper offers a concrete example of production-grade, AI-ready infrastructure. The future of healthcare AI will not be won by isolated models. It will be won by platforms that integrate data, governance, compute, and workflow into a coherent operating system for translational impact. John Halamka, M.D., M.S. and team, great work! #HealthcareAI #HealthSystems #RealWorldEvidence #ClinicalResearch #DigitalHealth #TranslationalMedicine #PrecisionMedicine #HealthData #AIInfrastructure #MedicalInnovation

Most “data storytelling” is missing a piece. And it’s usually why the work doesn’t land. You can have: Great charts → but no clear point A clean, logical deck → but no action taken A persuasive message → but no data to back it up Each of these looks good on its own, but none of them reliably drive decisions. What actually works is the combination of three things: 1. Data visualization: Make the insight easy to SEE 2. Narrative structure: Make the insight easy to FOLLOW 3. Influence: Make the insight easy to ACT ON Most teams are strong in one or two of these. But that always leaves a gap: Strong viz + structure → clear report… that doesn’t move anything Structure + influence → compelling anecdote… without evidence Viz + influence → key stat… without enough context to unpack it The work that drives decisions sits at the intersection of all three: The right insight, delivered in the right way, framed so people actually do something with it. THAT’s the difference between sharing information and actually influencing decisions. This is also how I approach working with teams when tailoring workshops. In early conversations, we usually map where the gaps are: are we clear but not driving action? persuasive but not landing it visually? Then we focus on closing that gap to move closer to the center. 📌 Save this for your next big presentation Learn more about my most popular workshop here: https://lnkd.in/g_pKPCKh Where in this diagram do you see people getting stuck most often? What would help them move closer to the center? (Also - I welcome any feedback on the diagram as I continue to refine the labels!) --

Integration of SDGs and ESG Pillars 🌎 For businesses committed to sustainability, effectively categorizing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) under Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) pillars can streamline strategic planning and operational execution. This approach clarifies how initiatives within these pillars can directly contribute to achieving broader global goals, thus enhancing business impact and compliance. The Environmental Pillar of ESG aligns with SDGs focused on ecological stability, such as Climate Action, Clean Water and Sanitation, and Affordable and Clean Energy. Businesses that enhance their environmental strategies not only adhere to regulatory demands but also drive efficiencies in resource use, which can lead to reduced operational costs and improved market positioning. Under the Social Pillar, SDGs like Quality Education, Gender Equality, and Decent Work and Economic Growth are pivotal. By focusing on these areas, companies can foster a more inclusive and equitable work environment, enhancing employee satisfaction and community relations, which are crucial for long-term business sustainability and customer loyalty. The Governance Pillar supports the achievement of SDGs related to ethical practices and equitable growth, including Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure, and Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions. Strengthening governance can help businesses manage risk, operate transparently, and maintain compliance with increasing legal standards, securing trust and support from investors and stakeholders. Integrating SDGs with ESG initiatives allows businesses to not only address specific global challenges but also to enhance their strategic planning processes. This structured approach provides a clear pathway for companies to evaluate their impact, set measurable targets, and communicate progress in a manner that resonates with global standards and stakeholder expectations. Furthermore, while the example diagram shows one method of mapping SDGs to ESG pillars, businesses are encouraged to adapt this framework to better suit their specific contexts and strategic objectives. Understanding and applying this integration effectively empowers companies to tackle complex sustainability challenges, paving the way for innovation and leadership in their industries. By leveraging the SDGs as a guide to categorize and prioritize ESG efforts, businesses can ensure that their sustainability initiatives are not only impactful but also aligned with global objectives, enhancing overall business resilience and reputation. #sustainability #sustainable #business #esg #climatechange #climateaction #sdgs #impact #strategy

When 234 smartphones turned a bus into a fireball — a reminder of how layered risk really is. A quiet morning near Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh. A passenger bus catches fire. Within minutes, flames engulf the entire vehicle. Nineteen lives lost. When investigators reached the site, they found something shocking — 234 smartphones worth ₹46 lakh packed inside the bus. The lithium-ion batteries in those phones had amplified the fire, turning a tragic accident into a full-blown inferno. Every loss like this isn’t just a human tragedy — it’s also a stark lesson in risk awareness and insurance preparedness. 🔹 Goods-in-Transit vs Passenger Policy The bus was carrying passengers and a high-value cargo. Was it declared? Was a Goods-in-Transit policy in place, or did everyone assume the motor policy was enough? In mixed-use transit, undeclared cargo often leads to denied claims and shattered businesses. 🔹 Fleet & Public Liability When 19 lives are lost, liability doesn’t stop at vehicle damage. It extends to the operator, the transporter, possibly even the manufacturer if any design flaw worsened the fire. Public liability insurance and fleet covers aren’t just checkboxes — they’re shields against unpredictable human and legal fallout. 🔹 Product Liability – The Battery Angle Lithium-ion batteries are among the most fire-sensitive cargo types. If any of those batteries malfunctioned, the product manufacturer could face claims. That’s why product liability insurance and cargo declarations matter so deeply for e-commerce, logistics, and tech supply chains. 🔹 Business Interruption & Supply Chain Losses Those smartphones were meant for an e-commerce giant. Their loss triggers delivery delays, customer refunds, and operational disruption — all part of contingent business interruption exposure. 🔹 Risk Accumulation & Under-Insurance Fuel + passengers + lithium batteries + aluminium flooring = a perfect storm. One small leak cascaded into multiple lines of loss — property, cargo, liability, and life. That’s risk accumulation in real time. 🔹 Policy Wordings & Risk Engineering Battery explosions are often excluded in standard motor wordings. Cargo declaration, segregation, fire suppression systems, and proper risk audits — these details decide whether a claim is paid or denied. This isn’t just a story about a bus fire. It’s a story about how small oversights can magnify risk across every layer of insurance. For those of us in the insurance world, this is the takeaway: > Don’t just insure assets. Understand exposures. Don’t just issue covers. Engineer safety. May the departed souls rest in peace. 🙏 And may we learn to manage risk — before it manages us. #Insurance #RiskManagement #PublicLiability #CargoInsurance #ProductLiability #BusinessInterruption #FleetInsurance #BatteryRisk #Underwriting #Claims #SafetyEngineering