Saturday, July 16, 2011
Sunday, May 01, 2011
Vote Swap Canada 2011: Facebook app finds you someone to strategically vote swap with
Use it now!
http://voteswap.sharurl.com/vo
Ridings at risk of falling into Harper's hands andwhom you should vote for:
Liberals:
Swap into Eglinton/Lawrence*, Don Valley West*, Avalon*, Vancouver South*, Vancouver Quadra*, St. John's South-Mount Pearl*, Cardigan, Etobicoke Centre,Ajax--Pickering, Bramalea, Brampton West, Brampton Springdale, Guelph, Mississauga South, Mississauga Streetsville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan**, West Nova**
NDP:
Swap into Pontiac*, Beauport-Limoilou*, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles*, Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo, Nanaimo--Alberni, Vancouver North, Surrey North, Palliser, Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar, Essex, Oshawa, South Shore--St. Margaret's, Central Nova**, Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission**, Gatineau**, Hull**
Green:
Swap into: Saanich-Gulf Islands*
* these appear to make Harper's majority, seats 153, 154 and 155 defend at all costs
** long shot gains that only locals dare predict; heavy voter turn out may swing these but they are risky swaps.
http://voteswap.sharurl.com/vo
Instructions
Submit your riding, party you support, and parties you're willing to vote for.
Review your matches.
Submit requests to swap votes with the people you've matched with. You can submit as many requests as you like.
Once someone accepts your request, you vote for their supported party on election day and they vote for yours.
Ridings at risk of falling into Harper's hands andwhom you should vote for:
Liberals:
Swap into Eglinton/Lawrence*, Don Valley West*, Avalon*, Vancouver South*, Vancouver Quadra*, St. John's South-Mount Pearl*, Cardigan, Etobicoke Centre,Ajax--Pickering, Bramalea, Brampton West, Brampton Springdale, Guelph, Mississauga South, Mississauga Streetsville, Richmond Hill, Vaughan**, West Nova**
NDP:
Swap into Pontiac*, Beauport-Limoilou*, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles*, Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo, Nanaimo--Alberni, Vancouver North, Surrey North, Palliser, Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar, Essex, Oshawa, South Shore--St. Margaret's, Central Nova**, Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge--Mission**, Gatineau**, Hull**
Green:
Swap into: Saanich-Gulf Islands*
* these appear to make Harper's majority, seats 153, 154 and 155 defend at all costs
** long shot gains that only locals dare predict; heavy voter turn out may swing these but they are risky swaps.
My predictions
I know others have slaved over predictions models. Grats for your work. I just wait until the end, and then guess. Here's my prediction:
I have the Conservatives at 130 because I refuse to give them a bump up, and want their seat count significantly reduced as punishment for being so anti-democratic. Polls show this to be the lower end of Conservative support. It can be lower -- the NDP maintain momentum, by all accounts, and Layton has the highest leadership rating, which is an important predictor of eventual voting behaviour.
Will the conservatives get a majority? It's unlikely. Harper is grasping at straws calling on Liberals to defect to him. His rhetoric has gotten even thicker than usual. Harper would not issue such a call unless the NDP were a threat to his standing. Usually, Conservatives passively encourage NDP votes to split off the Liberal left wing. No longer.
I believe the NDP deserve a crack at government, but that means being the Official Opposition first. They have the poll numbers to support that position, and the Liberals did not manage to successfully challenge Harper on what is really a terrible government record. It's time for a change of guard in the opposition benches.
I don't think the BQ will be destroyed -- too bad -- but greatly reduced.
I want Elizabeth May to win her seat. It's quite possible.
There's an independent in Quebec who leans Conservative, but keeps winning. I'll concede.
As you see, I'm using the 'I sense it in my gut' seat projection system. LOL.
E-Day is going to be very exciting. There's some uptick in Ontario for the Conservatives, but polls vary too much as to how much support the Conservatives have here. The NDP-Liberal vote split will help the Conservatives, but not so much if the NDP manage to maintain their level of support, or even go higher. So many ridings in Ontario are in play due to vote splits, it's very hard to call. A lot will ride on last day impressions and GOTV (Get Out The Vote).
Forum Research even reports that it is possible, though not probable, for the NDP to form a minority government.
My preferred scenario at this point is 18-24 months of a Conservative minority, giving the NDP time to firm up these gains, and showcase skills. Layton is experienced, and Harper will have a harder time painting him to the Canadian public with attack ads as Canadians already know him.
Perhaps in the meantime the Liberals will fold their tent into the NDP, though I think this unlikely during a minority government, and certainly even more unlikely due to their pride.
CPC 130
NDP 93
LPC 63
BQ 20
GPC 1
Ind 1
I have the Conservatives at 130 because I refuse to give them a bump up, and want their seat count significantly reduced as punishment for being so anti-democratic. Polls show this to be the lower end of Conservative support. It can be lower -- the NDP maintain momentum, by all accounts, and Layton has the highest leadership rating, which is an important predictor of eventual voting behaviour.
Will the conservatives get a majority? It's unlikely. Harper is grasping at straws calling on Liberals to defect to him. His rhetoric has gotten even thicker than usual. Harper would not issue such a call unless the NDP were a threat to his standing. Usually, Conservatives passively encourage NDP votes to split off the Liberal left wing. No longer.
I believe the NDP deserve a crack at government, but that means being the Official Opposition first. They have the poll numbers to support that position, and the Liberals did not manage to successfully challenge Harper on what is really a terrible government record. It's time for a change of guard in the opposition benches.
I don't think the BQ will be destroyed -- too bad -- but greatly reduced.
I want Elizabeth May to win her seat. It's quite possible.
There's an independent in Quebec who leans Conservative, but keeps winning. I'll concede.
As you see, I'm using the 'I sense it in my gut' seat projection system. LOL.
E-Day is going to be very exciting. There's some uptick in Ontario for the Conservatives, but polls vary too much as to how much support the Conservatives have here. The NDP-Liberal vote split will help the Conservatives, but not so much if the NDP manage to maintain their level of support, or even go higher. So many ridings in Ontario are in play due to vote splits, it's very hard to call. A lot will ride on last day impressions and GOTV (Get Out The Vote).
Forum Research even reports that it is possible, though not probable, for the NDP to form a minority government.
My preferred scenario at this point is 18-24 months of a Conservative minority, giving the NDP time to firm up these gains, and showcase skills. Layton is experienced, and Harper will have a harder time painting him to the Canadian public with attack ads as Canadians already know him.
Perhaps in the meantime the Liberals will fold their tent into the NDP, though I think this unlikely during a minority government, and certainly even more unlikely due to their pride.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Preserving Judeo-Christian Values in Canadian Society
Bearing false witness is apparently not much of a Judeo-Christian value these days.
Check this out:
"Naked in a bed in a brothel with a young Asian woman." Well, that's not in the story linked to. He was in the bed, she wasn't. And it was "suspected" of being a "bawdy house." Not the same as *being* a "brothel." Layton was questioned, but not charged. There wasn't anything to charge him over.
So, if you go to the wrong place to get a massage -- I see them all over and have no idea which is good and which isn't -- and the police come in, that's it, your public career is over?
This is Conservative endgame crap all over again. Remember Goodale and the baseless RCMP investigation announced at the end of the 2006 election? "Senate seat" Duffy releasing the tapes against Dion? Same thing.
I note that the NDP considers the story malicious. People need to be more cautious about what they write.
Check this out:
"Naked in a bed in a brothel with a young Asian woman." Well, that's not in the story linked to. He was in the bed, she wasn't. And it was "suspected" of being a "bawdy house." Not the same as *being* a "brothel." Layton was questioned, but not charged. There wasn't anything to charge him over.
So, if you go to the wrong place to get a massage -- I see them all over and have no idea which is good and which isn't -- and the police come in, that's it, your public career is over?
This is Conservative endgame crap all over again. Remember Goodale and the baseless RCMP investigation announced at the end of the 2006 election? "Senate seat" Duffy releasing the tapes against Dion? Same thing.
I note that the NDP considers the story malicious. People need to be more cautious about what they write.
I get mail: Stephen Taylor
I think he's blowing a gasket:
Days before Canadians go to vote, I am shocked by the latest poll numbers. Apparently, the socialist NDP is surging in various parts of the country and may indeed spoil a Conservative majority. Even worse, Jack Layton has suggested that he would share power with the separatist Bloc Québécois and reopen Canada's constitution. Pair this with an economic agenda that was written in Candyland, and Canada could be facing a generation of political and fiscal turmoil.
I remember Bob Rae's Ontario and the accidental election of the socialist NDP in the 90s. Many Canadians are looking to the socialist NDP as a protest vote, but the time is critical to bring everyone back to the sobering reality. We must protect this fragile economic recovery that has now become uncertain with the rise of the socialists.
I've let you know of our plan to run these ads in the weekend editions of the Globe and Mail and National Post. We're spreading a wakeup call to Canadians to remind them of the consequences of a terrible Orange Dawn that may come next Tuesday after election night. If you agree with me that this is a critical time to remind Canadians of what is at stake under the socialists and separatists please help us run these ads by contributing $35, $145, $250 or as much as you can afford at this time.
This is it... Let's fight this together. We can save this election.
Thank you,
Stephen Taylor
Fellow Rallier
Director, National Citizens Coalition
Conservatives conceed "NO MAJORITY"
From today's Star, a source inside the CPC says "It all comes down to Ontario and we're just not there...[there is currently no] seat matrix that gets Harper to a majority.”
They need to find two dozen more seats in Ontario than they think they can get due to loses elsewhere in the country. They shook free Liberal votes alright, but they all went NDP... There just isn't enough time to regain momentum and outpace the NDP.
This means they are looking at a reduced seat count somewhere around 130-135.
If the Bloc are held to under 20 seats, NDP+Liberal will equal a majority.
Could happen.
They need to find two dozen more seats in Ontario than they think they can get due to loses elsewhere in the country. They shook free Liberal votes alright, but they all went NDP... There just isn't enough time to regain momentum and outpace the NDP.
This means they are looking at a reduced seat count somewhere around 130-135.
If the Bloc are held to under 20 seats, NDP+Liberal will equal a majority.
Could happen.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Forum Research reports reduced Harper minority, NDP in Stornoway
From The Hill Times, the projection is Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only three seats for the Bloc Québécois.
As for individual ridings, Gerard Kennedy is set to lose Parkdale-High Park to the NDP's Peggy Nash, and Beaches-East York as well to the NDP. Everyone's favourite Conservative Gerald Keddy is set to lose to the NDP out in Nova Scotia.
Liberals and Conservatives will lose seats to the NDP in Quebec.
There's even a loss of Conservative support to the NDP out West, though what that will do to the seat count is not clear.
There's still a few days to go, but the Conservative campaign is winding down, correctly expecting less air time for the campaign as hockey and the royal wedding take the final weekend over.
That also means there will be little action to change numbers. With the NDP having momentum, we're looking at the Bloc marginalized, and the NDP and the Liberals creating a majority.
I recommend an accord, but I'm getting ahead of myself.
---
Update:
EKOS has a different take, but not that different. NDP are a bit lower and the Bloc is holding some ground, but the NDP has surged well ahead there. All in all, I think we're waiting to see if NDP+Liberal = majority.
As for individual ridings, Gerard Kennedy is set to lose Parkdale-High Park to the NDP's Peggy Nash, and Beaches-East York as well to the NDP. Everyone's favourite Conservative Gerald Keddy is set to lose to the NDP out in Nova Scotia.
Liberals and Conservatives will lose seats to the NDP in Quebec.
There's even a loss of Conservative support to the NDP out West, though what that will do to the seat count is not clear.
There's still a few days to go, but the Conservative campaign is winding down, correctly expecting less air time for the campaign as hockey and the royal wedding take the final weekend over.
That also means there will be little action to change numbers. With the NDP having momentum, we're looking at the Bloc marginalized, and the NDP and the Liberals creating a majority.
I recommend an accord, but I'm getting ahead of myself.
---
Update:
EKOS has a different take, but not that different. NDP are a bit lower and the Bloc is holding some ground, but the NDP has surged well ahead there. All in all, I think we're waiting to see if NDP+Liberal = majority.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Two simulstaneous polls, two very different results
Proclaims the National Post: Tories 19 points up, NDP tops Liberals for second: Poll !!!
Yikes! Ipsos Reid has the Conservatives at 43%, NDP 24%, Liberals in third at 21%? Can it be?
A second poll by Ekos has the Conservatives at 34.4%, and the NDP and the Liberals tied at 24.7%.
Both were made by random sample phone April 18-20.
Both can't be right!
The answer is (likely) Ekos. Its sample size is 2156, whereas Ipsos Reid is only 1000.
One thing is common here: The NDP is up, way up, while Liberal fortunes are sagging.
Read the links. the regionals on Ekos are interesting.
========
UPDATE:
I thought I'd toss in the Nanos numbers. Nanos is compiled differently than the other two. 900 random calls a night are added to the two previous nights and averaged to get an ongoing rolling average. The most recent shows Con 39%, Libs 26.7%, NDP 22.1%
These numbers cover April 18-20 as well.
Conservative numbers appear to be all over the place, but I've been watching the Nanos poll for weeks, and the Cons have been stalled at 39% for a long time.
hard to say what is going on out there. The only consistent pattern is NDP support rising, and Liberal fortunes flagging.
Yikes! Ipsos Reid has the Conservatives at 43%, NDP 24%, Liberals in third at 21%? Can it be?
A second poll by Ekos has the Conservatives at 34.4%, and the NDP and the Liberals tied at 24.7%.
Both were made by random sample phone April 18-20.
Both can't be right!
The answer is (likely) Ekos. Its sample size is 2156, whereas Ipsos Reid is only 1000.
One thing is common here: The NDP is up, way up, while Liberal fortunes are sagging.
Read the links. the regionals on Ekos are interesting.
========
UPDATE:
I thought I'd toss in the Nanos numbers. Nanos is compiled differently than the other two. 900 random calls a night are added to the two previous nights and averaged to get an ongoing rolling average. The most recent shows Con 39%, Libs 26.7%, NDP 22.1%
These numbers cover April 18-20 as well.
Conservative numbers appear to be all over the place, but I've been watching the Nanos poll for weeks, and the Cons have been stalled at 39% for a long time.
hard to say what is going on out there. The only consistent pattern is NDP support rising, and Liberal fortunes flagging.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Updates from The National Citizens Coalition
FYI, I get emails from the NCC, all of them peddling shamelessly for Harper...
April 12, 2011:
April 15, 2011:
April 19, 2011:
The NCC got its start fighting universal health care, and counts Harper as one of its favoured sons. Harper worked there for a time when he tired of the Reform Party. When he re-entered politics, the NCC was more than happy to run ads in his riding to help him get elected. The NCC desperately wants Harper to have a majority. Gee, I wonder why...
April 12, 2011:
Dear Friend of freedom,
It seems like just yesterday that we braved a certain frigid December day, which changed the way we'd look at Canadian politics for a generation. We rallied for Canada against the socialist-separatist coalition.
We thought we had put this all behind us, but now, in the midst of a surprise election, while our economic recovery is still fragile, the ambition of Michael Ignatieff and his reckless co-conspirators has proven too much and it's time to raise the alarm again.
If we don't see stability in Ottawa, the coalition will try to take over again. If they do, you might as well staple Michael Ignatieff's platform together with that of the NDP and the separatist Bloc. They all love to spend our money on their special interests. Meanwhile, they won't say no to each other's spending demands, while they dangerously hold onto power.
Friend, the National Citizens Coalition (NCC) is an organization that is continuing the fight alongside Rally for Canada, letting Canadians know about this socialist-separatist threat. The NCC is mobilizing the fight against the coalition in key ridings where our voices can make the strongest difference during this critical election.
We're buying billboards, radio ads and spreading the word via social media. You answered Canada's cry for freedom before, will you do it again?
I'm asking you for a $20, $50, or $200 contribution, whatever you can afford to help us in this fight. Please click here to make your contribution. Every dollar helps gets our message out to more Canadians. Will we celebrate the end of the coalition soon? Let's win this fight!
Thank you,
Stephen Taylor
staylor@ncc-on.org
Fellow Rallier
Director, National Citizens Coalition
PS - Please watch the attached video by clicking here. It delivers our very serious message in a humorous and memorable way. Please forward this email and our video to as many of your friends and fellow citizens as possible.
April 15, 2011:
Dear friend,
I contacted you a few short days ago regarding the socialist-separatist coalition that threatens to destabilize Canadian politics. When asked point-blank in the leaders' debate of his plans for a coalition after an election won by Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff said that Stephen Harper could go ahead and just "try" to form a government.
Will Michael Ignatieff "try" to form a coalition instead? To paraphrase another Liberal, "Just Watch Him".
I sent you a video that we produced at the NCC likening Ignatieff, Layton, and the separatist Duceppe as the Three Stooges bungling everything from raising our taxes to opening the floodgates on government spending. We've been criticized for our efforts by the usual suspects on the left for our video (including a firestorm of anti-conservative vitriol at the Globe and Mail), but on the day it launched, our website nearly crashed under the traffic and the video got thousands and thousands of views.
Even the CBC featured it as an example of getting the word out virally! Imagine that...
The NCC is the only right-of-centre organization registered with Elections Canada for this federal election. That means that while the other special interests groups are shilling for more government pork, we're the only ones standing athwart this election yelling "STOP"! Our special interest is the taxpayer, free enterprise and smaller government.
I wanted to share an urgent action item with you today. Please see our attached radio ad that we're pushing into heavy rotation in strategic ridings across the country. Our efforts are completely donor-driven. If you agree that the outcome of this election is critical, please consider making the maximum contribution that you can afford at this time whether it be $20, $50, $200 or more. To do so, please click here.
Thank you,
Stephen Taylor
Fellow Rallier
Director, National Citizens Coalition
April 19, 2011:
Hello!
I just wanted to give you a quick shout to let you know about the amazing feedback we're getting spreading the small-c conservative message to ridings that could go either way in this election. We are running radio ads in key markets where we think they will make the greatest impact come election day. We are reaching millions of Canadians during this election with our message that Canada needs more freedom through less government. You can click here to check out the issues that WE think should be on the agenda this election.
Also, you may have seen that the Globe and Mail featured criticism of the NCC and our viral marketing campaign against the coalition. Not only this, but the same so-called "newspaper of record" got their facts wrong on the NCC and tried to put words in Stephen Harper's mouth that weren't his! And would you be surprised that the Liberals took this misattributed quote and used it in one of their shameless attack ads? They did! Just more evidence of what we're up against this election.
Your support has been encouraging and I wanted to send this note to say thank you.
You are an important part of the conservative movement. Your enthusiasm is motivating!
Thanks!
Stephen Taylor
Director, National Citizens Coalition
The NCC got its start fighting universal health care, and counts Harper as one of its favoured sons. Harper worked there for a time when he tired of the Reform Party. When he re-entered politics, the NCC was more than happy to run ads in his riding to help him get elected. The NCC desperately wants Harper to have a majority. Gee, I wonder why...
Monday, April 18, 2011
Harper to consider treatment centre only if a Tory is elected in riding?
Am I reading this right?
Yes, I think I am reading this right. If a non-Conservative MP is elected, there's no chance for a centre. Well, after seeing how the Harper Government favoured Conservative ridings for stimulus spending and for G8/G20 spending (Muskoka and Tony Clement, $50 million, Toronto $0.00), I'm not surprised.
YELLOWKNIFE — Stephen Harper's vision of a strong and free Far North ran up against northern reality Monday.
Even as he reannounced a promise to complete an all-season highway in the Arctic, he said funding a drug treatment centre for poor and addicted northerners isn't a promise he should make.
"In terms of specific infrastructure investments that need to be made in this area, I always say during a campaign, I don't make the local commitments. That's up to individual candidates to make and to bring those priorities to Ottawa," Harper said in answer to the only question he took from a northern reporter.
But, he said, if voters in this sprawling Western Arctic constituency elect Tory candidate Sandy Lee, an ex-territorial health minister, maybe she could bring the plan for one to Ottawa.
Yes, I think I am reading this right. If a non-Conservative MP is elected, there's no chance for a centre. Well, after seeing how the Harper Government favoured Conservative ridings for stimulus spending and for G8/G20 spending (Muskoka and Tony Clement, $50 million, Toronto $0.00), I'm not surprised.
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