Some good polling numbers over at VP Watch today, including one showing that an Obama/Richardson ticket could be a winner -- in New Mexico of course.

Since the end of the Democratic primary the $64,000 question has been, "how many Hillary Clinton supporters were so disappointed and disillusioned by the outcome that they won't support Obama and will cross over and vote for John McCain this fall?"

It's an impossible question to answer, especially at this point in the campaign when the general election is just barely underway. But we do have some recent polls that give us a glimpse at where things stand right now.

In addition to breaking down the general election vote by party, the most recent Fox News and Newsweek polls drilled down to focus on how Hillary Clinton primary voters are indicating they will vote in November.

As you can see, relative to the pool of all Democrats respondents, support for Obama among this subset falls by 13 and 11 percent, respectively, while support for McCain rises 7 percent in both:

So there does seem to be some lingering fallout among Clinton supporters, though it should be noted that Obama increased his overall lead in both polls.

What the national polls can't tell us, however, is how this fallout is distributed around the country and whether it is concentrated in certain states that could pose problems for the Obama campaign.

Luckily, we have some data from Quinnipiac's recent swing state survey that gives us some indication of how Clinton primary voters in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are feeling. As you can see, Florida closely mirrors the national numbers but the trend is more pronounced in Pennsylvania and especially Ohio, where the net change (drop in support for Obama/increase in support for McCain) reaches 22 and 29 points respectively:

Again, it should be noted that Obama increased his lead over McCain in every Quinnipiac state poll, indicating that despite whatever lingering fallout exists with Clinton supporters, Obama is more than making up the difference with gains among other groups.

Still, it should give the Obama campaign a bit of a pause to see that, at least for the moment, one in four Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries in both Ohio and Pennsylvania indicate they will crossover to vote for McCain in the fall.

Last night Fox News' Greta Van Susteren interviewed Speaker Pelosi, which is worth watching:

Part 2:

Today's Washington Post profiles Hillary's first day back at work:

Hillary Clinton was taking the elevator up to her Senate office yesterday for the first time since she lost the Democratic presidential nomination when one of her aides, Philippe Reines, warned her about the condition of her office.

In her months-long absence, Reines cautioned, "things have gotten a little casual."

The vanquished candidate swung open the door of her private office and found two of her legislative assistants in T-shirts, caps and sunglasses playing at a ping-pong table while the rest of the staff cheered them on. Clinton tossed her head back with her famous laughter, then sat on the couch to watch Mike Szymanski score match point against colleague Ann Gavaghan.

The girl had lost -- again! To the ping-pong loser, Clinton had some empathetic advice. "Ann," she said, "you have to be very gracious in defeat."

"It was a lesson Clinton learned at great cost in her extended battle with Barack Obama," Dana Milbank writes, reporting that Clinton's first day was one of hugs, high-fives, and some showy public chumminess:

In a sense, her stature had increased during the failed primary battle: She left as a legislator but returned as the leader of an 18 million-strong movement of women and working-class voters -- a group whose support Clinton's Democratic colleagues fervently desire.

And so, as Clinton entered a private luncheon in the Capitol, these colleagues greeted her with cheers, hugs and high-fives. "It's great to be here among my colleagues," Clinton teased, "just another regular, plain old superdelegate."

Also, in case you were wondering--by the end of the last paragraph, moments after Hillary suggests turning it into a "conference table," the ping-pong table is long gone.

According to a national poll from AP/Yahoo News, more people believe that McCain can handle the war in Iraq better than Obama. 76% of Republicans, 31% of independents and 15% of Democrats said McCain would best handle Iraq, while 57% of Democrats, 19% of independents and 8% of Republicans feel Obama would do a better job. Overall, 39% said McCain would better handle Iraq and 33% said Obama.

AP/Yahoo News is tracking the moods and opinions of the same 2,714 people over the course of the campaign. For this installment, they polled 1,759 people (844 Dems, 637 GOPers) from June 13-23.

Also tested was who would handle terrorism better. Republicans favored McCain 78%-2% over Obama; independents did as well with a 37%-7% margin. Democrats were split, favoring Obama 38%-21% over McCain.

In the Headlines

"Turnout Boost Could Favor Obama" (Mike Dorning, Chicago Tribune) - Barack Obama could make major gains in at least nine states the Democratic ticket lost in 2004 if he can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and African-American voters, a Tribune analysis of voting data suggests.

"McCain calls for energy-efficient government" (Glen Johnson, AP) - Republican John McCain said Tuesday the federal government should practice the energy efficiency he preaches, pledging as president to switch official vehicles to green technologies and do the same for office buildings.

"Evangelical Leader Attacks Obama on Religious Views" (Larry Rohter, New York Times) - Just days after Senator Barack Obama met quietly with religious leaders, including the son of the Rev. Billy Graham, another of the evangelical movement's most prominent names, James C. Dobson, has sharply attacked Mr. Obama, accusing him of having "a fruitcake interpretation of the Constitution" and twisting the meaning of both the Old and New Testaments.

"Obama's aim: 14 Bush states and local races" (Ben Smith, The Politico) - Barack Obama will focus his resources largely in 14 states George W. Bush won in 2004, his chief field operative said Tuesday, hoping to score upsets in places like Virginia, Indiana, and Georgia.

From the Morning Shows

Today - Lisa Caputo, Hillary Clinton adviser, on why Bill Clinton has not been more outspoken in supporting Obama as the party's nominee: "I think he's waiting to be asked to do something for this campaign. It is up to the nominee and it's their choice how they want to use the former president."

From Late Night

David Letterman:

(Greg Bobrinskoy contributed to the Morning Report.)

A bit of detail from the pool report of Obama's star-studded Hollywood fundraiser yesterday:

Donors sipped wine and bottled water. Waiters wearing black vests, white shirts and black ties served hors d'oeuvres: endive spears of brie, toasted almonds and truffle oil; tuna tartare with passion fruit ponzu and macadamia nut on wonton crisp; beef short rib skewers with Asian flavors.

Clearly, one of Obama's potential vulnerabilities as a candidate is the image that he's an elitist who is "out of touch" with working class America. This is an angle Republicans are keen to exploit, as we saw with Karl Rove test-driving the "coolly arrogant" country club line just this week. And though Maureen Dowd is confident Republicans won't be able to get away with it, even the tiniest details like the ones from the pool report help feed the narrative, as you can only imagine how a beer-drinking, blue-collar Democrat in Ohio might react to news that Obama was hanging out "sipping wine and eating endive spears of brie" with Hollywood liberals.

My point isn't that Obama has to go to mega-fundraisers where rich activists are paying $2,300 a piece and serve them burgers and dawgs. But if I was advising the Obama campiagn - a group that seems to be quite serious and disciplined about managing their candidate's image - I'd make sure that for every story that ran with details of glitzy, wine and brie fundraisers, there would be two stories in the news showing Obama eating burgers and dawgs with ordinary folks in places like Ohio and Michigan.

Those events won't raise $4 million a pop, of course. But, then again, lack of money isn't Obama's biggest potential problem this November.

"When an issue is this hot, it would be so much easier if there was a single reason to blame. The oil shock is real and is about the hottest political issue right now. So Congress feels the pressure to do something but there is not much it can do to promote peace in Nigeria or to get the value of the dollar to go up." - Energy expert Daniel Yergin, who will testify today before the Joint Economic Committee.

In a new L.A. Times/Bloomberg national poll, Obama holds a wide lead over McCain (June 19-23, 1,115 RV, MoE +/- 3%). When Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr were added to the race, Obama's lead over McCain grew to 48%-33%. The Times reports that Obama's strong numbers stem from respondents believing he could better solve the country's economic problems, and that McCain suffers from an "enthusiasm gap" among conservatives.

Obama 49
McCain 37

Obama leads by 7.5 points in the RCP National Average

A new SurveyUSA presidential poll in Indiana shows McCain and Obama separated by just 1 point. Also tested were the candidates in the race for governor -- Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels leads former Democratic Rep. Jill Long Thompson by 5 points.

(June 21-23, 627 LV, MoE +/- 4%)

Obama 48
McCain 47
Und 2

Obama leads by 0.5 of a point in the RCP Average for Indiana

Daniels 50 (+1 vs. last poll, June 10-12)
Long Thompson 45 (-4)
Und 5

Daniels leads by 10.0 points in the RCP Average for Indiana