National Coalition Party presidential candidate Alexander Stubb maintained his lead in the most recent presidential election poll commissioned by Yle and carried out by the pollster Taloustutkimus.
The poll shows Stubb leading 54-46 over Pekka Haavisto, an electoral association candidate backed by the Greens.
The percentages remain exactly the same when including only the responses of respondents who said they had already voted in advance, or would definitely vote.
The situation has changed over the last two weeks and Haavisto has managed to move toward closing the gap. The difference in backing for the candidates has narrowed by a few percentage points since Yle's last opinion poll, published on 25 January.
At that time, 59 percent said they would vote for Stubb and 41 percent for Haavisto if the candidates met in the second round of the presidential election.
First round votes up for grabs
In the first round of the elections at the end of January, Stubb won 27.2 percent of the vote, and Haavisto 25.8 percent.
Both candidates seem to be largely successful in retaining their own supporters for the second round of the elections.
"Well over nine out of ten of those who voted for Stubb in the first round are staying with him. The situation is much the same for Haavisto," says Taloustutkimus CEO Jari Pajunen.
But what will decide the race on Sunday is which of the contenders picks up the most votes that were cast for other candidates in the first round.
According to Pajunen, background data from this Yle poll confirms the view that those who voted for the Finns Party candidate Jussi Halla-aho and the Centre/independent Olli Rehn at the end of January have shifted into Stubb's camp.
Almost 80 percent of those who voted for Halla-aho say they will be backing Stubb in the second round. Haavisto, on the other hand, is polling just over 10 percent of the votes cast for Halla-aho.
More than half of those who voted for Rehn are now leaning towards Stubb and just under a third towards Haavisto. The rest are still undecided.
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Haavisto seems to be picking up support from those who voted for the left-wing parties' presidential candidates. Up to 90 percent of those who voted for Jutta Urpilainen (SDP) and Li Andersson (Left) say they will vote for Haavisto in the second round of the election.
However, there is also support for Stubb on the left, especially among SDP supporters.
"There was a small Stubb faction among the Social Democrats, with more than a fifth of them backing Stubb already in the first round of the election," Pajunen points out.
Stubb popular among workers
Haavisto is the clear favourite of women, while Stubb is attracting significantly more votes from men.
Both candidates enjoy support from all age groups. However, Stubb has stronger support among pensioners, while the profile of Haavisto's supporters is slightly younger.
"Haavisto's backing is a little more weighted towards the under-35s," says Pajunen.
Haavisto has widespread support among white-collar workers, while Stubb is attracting more votes from senior managers and entrepreneurs.
Stubb's popularity is also clearly higher among blue-collar workers. According to Pajunen, these votes are a legacy of Halla-aho's campaign.
"There is probably a correlation with the fact that the Finns Party is a party of working-class voters and the majority of them are backing Stubb," Pajunen explains.
Haavisto courting undecided voters
Haavisto's ace in the hole is those who are still considering whom to vote for, and those unsure whether they will vote at all.
"This is where Haavisto has a tiny, tiny chance to spring a surprise if he can get these groups," Pajunen points out.
This poll shows that Haavisto has more support among those who do not believe they will exercise their right to vote at all.
"Those who are still undecided are also significantly more likely to name Haavisto as a favourite rather than Stubb," notes Taloustutkimus CEO Jari Pajunen, but adds that the proportion of those who are unsure about who they support, or whether they will vote, is quite small at this stage.
The poll was conducted by telephone interviews between 31 January and 6 February.
A total of 1,543 people responded to the survey, and 78.5 percent of the respondents indicated a choice of candidate. The margin of error in the survey is appropriately +/- 2 percentage points.
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