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Monday's papers: Election analysis and second-round prospects

Analysts note first-round results in Finland's presidential closely aligned with pre-election polls, and both finalists will now have to appeal to a broader base in order to win.

Pekka Haavisto and Alexander Stubb.
Pekka Haavisto (left) and Alexander Stubb (right), are going into the second and final round of the presidential election. Image: Silja Viitala / Yle
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The first round of the presidential election played out with far less excitement than many drama-hungry followers of politics had hoped, says Maaseudun Tulevaisuus.

A Monday morning column by its editor-in-chief, Jouni Kemppainen, notes that both of the first-round winners, Alexander Stubb (NCP) and Pekka Haavisto (Green/voters' association) did particularly well in the big cities of the south. But Haavisto also had more support than expected in the rural areas up north. Both frontrunners also clearly outperformed the usual backing for their own parties.

In particular, support for Haavisto was more than twice as high as the Greens' voter base. He collected votes not only from the Greens but also from left-wing supporters. The same is sure to be seen in the second round.

On the other hand, Stubb, a native Swedish speaker, received a significant portion of the votes cast by supporters of the Swedish People's Party, although he has been careful not to play his language card too much. That could alienate some voters in the second round, especially backers of the Finns Party.

Kemppainen writes that as campaigning for the second round of the elections now begins, it is particularly important for the candidates to pay attention to voters in the rural areas. Many voters there who backed other candidates will now have to reconsider who they vote for.

The two main candidates will have address issues largely ignored up to now, such as the future of food production and keeping the countryside inhabited. Although the president has no real power in these issues, their parties' position is sure to have an impact.

Government vs opposition

Also in Maaseudun Tulevaisuus, commentator and feature writer Heikki Tuuri writes that with Stubb and Haavisto now facing off, the second round can now be seen as government versus opposition, right versus left, or even as a personality race.

Since there are no major differences of opinion on foreign and security policy between the two, differences have to be found, or at least sought, on issues outside the president's actual remit.

The candidates are likely to be asked for their views on issues such as the labour market, especially as the trade union movement is holding major strikes on Thursday and Friday, right in the middle of the second round.

Tuuri adds that the first round of the presidential election showed how neat and orderly elections can be conducted, if you compare them with, say, the ongoing US and Russian presidential campaigns, where one consists of mud-slinging and the outcome of the other is determined in advance.

Tactical voting

According to Helsingin Sanomat political and economic columnist Marko Junkkari, when Haavisto lost his lead to Stubb in the autumn polls, his campaign panicked. Political professionals know that a faltering campaign is extremely difficult to turn around. It is hard to inspire volunteers when the overriding goal is to halt the decline in support.

However, Haavisto's campaign succeeded in doing just that, and he made it to the second round.

Haavisto was considerably helped by tactical voting, as many leftists gave him their backing. This, in turn, severely dented support for the SDP's Jutta Urpilainen, who fell 15 percentage points short of reaching the level of voter support for her party. Li Andersson also fell short of the support enjoyed by hers, the Left Alliance.

Junkkari sees the most notable change in the run-up to the vote as being the sharp rise in late polls in support for Jussi Halla-aho of the Finns Party.

Halla-aho's strength was that he could easily direct his message to his own people. There was no point in Halla-aho even trying to appeal to the whole nation, as polls showed him to be by far to be the candidate opposed by the most voters.

Halla-aho's rise in the polls during the final week did, though, seem to make left and green voters even more eager to focus on Haavisto. Paradoxically, then, Halla-aho's rise in the final polls may have ensured Haavisto's good result and entry into the second round.

This Helsingin Sanomat columnist points out that the traditional dividing line in politics is between liberal and conservative. In this election, two liberal candidates made it to the second round.

The result, he says, also shows that voters are increasingly divided between a green-left and a centre-right bloc. And that, especially in the red-green bloc, the dividing lines between the parties have become very blurred in the eyes of voters.

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Dull is good

Pasi Koivumaa, editor-in-chief of Joensuu's Karjalainen tells his readers that "Dull is good".

Reviewing election night, he writes that seldom before has the atmosphere in a national election in Finland fallen so flat and the tension so quickly evaporated as it did on Sunday night a few seconds after 8pm.

But why is this good?

Because dull meant that it was a high-quality, moderate, civilised and substantive election.

All nine candidates were very good, especially from the point of view of their own reference group, but also in general, says Koivumaa.

There were no irrelevancies and the tone of the debates was serious. This was undoubtedly influenced by Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and hybrid warfare against the whole Western world, including Finland.

According to Koivumaa, at a time when Finland's security is under such serious threat as it is now, it was wise for the presidential candidates to show, also to those outside Finland, that the people are united as a nation on the most important issues.

Four differences

Iltalehti notes that the two candidates now going into the final round have been described as having similar values.

However, Haavisto and Stubb do not agree on everything and Iltalehti points to four issues where their answers to questions posed by the paper during the campaign differ.

The biggest difference between the candidates relates to the past and the timing of the Finland's Nato membership application.

Stubb agrees wholeheartedly that Finland should have joined Nato earlier, saying that a good time to join would have been at the same time as it took up EU membership.

Haavisto disagrees, pointing out that the security situation in Finland changed after the start of Russia's against Ukraine.

Haavisto and Stubb also disagree on whether Finnish law should be amended to allow nuclear weapons on Finnish territory.

Haavisto disagrees completely with this argument. Stubb's position is neutral.

The third difference relates to public services in remote areas. Haavisto does not view fewer public services in these areas as acceptable. Stubb has taken a neutral position on the issue.

The two are diametrically opposed on the suggestion of whether conscription should be extended to include women.

Haavisto agrees and Stubb disagrees.

Gearing up for round two

Savon Sanomat is one of the papers carrying an STT news agency report that preparations are already underway for the second round of the presidential election.

Advance voting begins Wednesday, and as usual, will last one week.

Election day is Sunday, 11 February, and the results will be officially confirmed three days later, on Wednesday 14 February.

The new president's six-year term of office will start on Friday 1 March, when he makes a solemn declaration in parliament to uphold the constitution and laws of the republic and to do his utmost to promote the success of the Finnish people.

This will then mark the end of President Sauli Niinistö's 12-year presidential term.

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