The increase in the vote of the extreme right, the fall of the Dutch government, the bonds speculation against Spain, the problems of adjustment of the Monti government, the continuous disintegration of the Portuguese, Spanish and Greek societies - all demonstrate that change in the economic policy of the EU is necessary. Economic adjustments and structural changes cannot happen overnight as Merkel wishes. A vote for Hollande may bring change within the EU, something which will be much welcomed. It is interesting that the message of the first round of the French Presidential elections was not heard by the EU establishment elites who continue to claim that there will be no change to the economic policy conducted so far. For instance, Commission President Barroso stated that the current u...

Ukraine’s favourite foreign policy game is called ‘multi-vectorness’ – a constant process of 'eschewing choice' as this recent study explained. For years Ukraine sought to extract concessions and be treated nicely by both Russia and the EU or US not because it was sticking to its promises, but because it played sometimes skilfully and sometimes brazenly on contradictions between external actors. A simplified version of the rule of rules of the game, in its Ukrainian version, looks the following way: Promise both Russia and the EU everything they might want to hear (usually integration into some Russian- or EU-led initiative); Ask for something in exchange (market access, lower gas prices, financial assistance, opportunities for lucrative but opaque deals  etc). Get what you asked a...

It’s become difficult to escape legislation on Internet regulation. In Europe, and across the Atlantic to the US, the governance of cyber-land hasrisen to the top of the political agenda. In January the European Commission released legislation to re-write the data protection directive, while the Commission and the European Parliament are also haggling over the little-loved anti-counterfeit treaty Acta. Meanwhile, the Obama White House published its own ‘Internet bill of rights’ in February and blocked two anti-piracy acts from going through Congress after a concerted online campaign involving Wikipedia and Facebook earlier this year. Last week, the US Congress actually ignored protests by the Obama administration and backed legislation aimed at helping to thwart electronic cyber-attacks o...

At the moment, the Euro Area is stagnating, unemployment is rising and the entire banking system is dangerously fragile---in Nouriel Roubini’s phrase, we are watching a slow motion train wreck. But if the opinion polls are right, François Hollande will very soon be President of the French Republic and economic policy in the Euro Area (EA) could become decisively more progressive. ‘Austerity’ could be ditched and Europe could go for growth and jobs. Hollande can talk the talk, but can he ‘walk the walk’? Whether genuine change is possible depends on a number of factors difficult to evaluate; eg, how markets will react, how Hollande manages the relationship with Germany in the coming months, whether the German SPD can form a government after the 2013 general election and, crucially, wheth...

On a recent trip to Ukraine for the Kiev Security Forum I asked some of the Ukrainian analysts whether Yanukovich will manage to become like Putin - a successful authoritarian leader able to retain firm political control for a long time. There is little doubt that Yanukovich would like to be like Putin and is trying to build a more or less similar system. But there are a number of differences. First, is that Ukraine does not have energy resources and Yanukovich therefore lacks the money to co-opt the elites and the public as widely as Putin could do. But another important factor is how Putin and Yanukovich play their systems. Putin's role in the Russian system is that of the ultimate arbiter between various elite groups. He is a moderator, not a player in the elite squabbles. He is not ...

The final volume of the trilogy In the Name of the State was published on 19 April 2012. Entitled ‘Prikrivanje’, Cover-up, it deals with the abuse of political and legal power of leading Slovene politicians around the time when the country gained its independence. Today's guest blog by Rafael Njotea of Journalismfund.eu Journalists Matej Šurc and Blaž Zgaga spent more than three years investigating and analysing more than 6000 pages of declassified official documents on the trade of arms in Slovenia during the Yugoslav Wars. They obtained the documents through the Slovene Freedom of Information Act. Journalists from six other countries cooperated in cross-border investigation. The research was co-financed by a Journalismfund.eu research grant. The findings of the investigation are ch...

Don’t look. Can you say what’s on the 5, the 10 or the 50 Euro banknotes? Thought not. On each, a bridge-and-window motif mumbles “linking” and “openness”. The European stars edge apologetically off the page. The map of Europe, with its blurred east and its southern shadow, can’t quite muster the energy to be controversial. The design on the Euro notes has gone down in history as a massive defeat for Brussels—the generic flavourlessness proof that the peoples of Europe really don’t have anything in common. From today’s perspective, of course, this blandness looks like a happy accident: if the banknotes had featured, say, Beethoven or the Brandenburg Gate, even the impoverished people of Greece might be tempted to set a light to them, along with the German flag. And yet, no matt...

Almost 40 years after Turkey's intervention left Cyprus divided into a Greek Cypriot South and a Turkish Cypriot North, a successful reunification recipe has yet to be found.  There have been many lost opportunities. The set of ideas produced by Boutros Boutros-Ghali in 1992 came to nothing thanks to the then Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktas and a hard-line government in Ankara, while the 2004 Annan Plan failed due to the intransigent position of former Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos, who accused the UN of negotiating a Turkey-friendly settlement, which his compatriots then voted against.  While most ordinary Cypriots have almost given up hope, the international community continues to insist Cyprus can somehow be glued back together, not least because an internationally recog...

It is standard practice to bash Catherine Ashton and how the External Action Service turned out. The story is of an inward looking institution, without having a grand narrative or strategic vision, and little credibility in either EU member states or EU's external partners. It is hard to argue that EU foreign policy is doing well. But that is first and foremost because of structural factors - the economic crisis that drastically reduces EU's foreign policy appetite and resources, as well as soft power appeal (see EU Foreign Policy scorecard 2012 for a similar assessment). It is perhaps time to reconsider at least some of the standard, off the cuff, assessments of the EEAS (and Catherine Ashton). If one looks at some specific foreign policy dossiers, the reality is that of EEAS gradually...

Although this is not purely of interest to Europe, it is of tremendous interest to Europe. Some of its member states are believed to be perpetrators in this little-reported (but fundamentally important) struggle now playing out in Qatar. The Tax Justice Network has just blogged a dramatic statement by senior and highly respected former staff members of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), highlighting what appear to be attempts by the global financial services industries, via their representatives in developed country governments to neuter UNCTAD's analysis of financial globalisation, which has often stood out against the prevailing financial orthodoxy. Now, courtesy of David Spencer, here is an even more dramatic statement on the same issue, issued on Friday. The ...