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. 2023 Aug 30;290(2005):20231262.
doi: 10.1098/rspb.2023.1262. Epub 2023 Aug 30.

Infectious diseases may have arrested the southward advance of microblades in Upper Palaeolithic East Asia

Kenichi Aoki  1 , Naoyuki Takahata  2 , Hiroki Oota  3 , Joe Yuichiro Wakano  4 , Marcus W Feldman  5
Affiliations

Infectious diseases may have arrested the southward advance of microblades in Upper Palaeolithic East Asia

Kenichi Aoki et al. Proc Biol Sci. .

Abstract

An unsolved archaeological puzzle of the East Asian Upper Palaeolithic is why the southward expansion of an innovative lithic technology represented by microblades stalled at the Qinling-Huaihe Line. It has been suggested that the southward migration of foragers with microblades stopped there, which is consistent with ancient DNA studies showing that populations to the north and south of this line had differentiated genetically by 19 000 years ago. Many infectious pathogens are believed to have been associated with hominins since the Palaeolithic, and zoonotic pathogens in particular are prevalent at lower latitudes, which may have produced a disease barrier. We propose a mathematical model to argue that mortality due to infectious diseases may have arrested the wave-of-advance of the technologically advantaged foragers from the north.

Keywords: Qinling–Huaihe Line; ancient DNA; diffusion equation; infectious disease; microblades.

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Conflict of interest statement

We declare we have no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Numerical solution of the non-dimensional equations (2.4, 2.5) by the forward Euler method with Neumann boundary conditions on a space lattice comprising l+1 points where l=2000; space and time increments are Δx=0.5 and Δt=0.05, respectively. Initial conditions are C1(x,0)=1 for l/2+1≤x≤l and 0 elsewhere; M2(x,0)=1 for 0≤x≤l/10 and 0 elsewhere; C2(x,0)=1 for l/10+1≤x≤l/2 and 0 elsewhere. Parameter values are L1=50, K2=100, L2=60, b=0.825, ρ=1.2, ε=0.01, w=0.3, δ=0.029053. Densities of C1, M2 and C2 are pictured in red, blue and yellow, respectively. (a) Solution after 1500 time steps (iterations); (b) after 4000 time steps; (c) after 4500 time steps. With r1=0.025 (<0.03 to reflect disease load), one time step corresponds to 2 years. At about 4500 time steps, i.e. 9000 years, a stationary front has been formed at x≈743 between M2 on the left (north) and C1 on the right (south). The simulation was continued until 6000 time steps as a check.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Values of the contagion-mortality parameter, δ=m/r1, that yield a stationary front between M2 and C1 are apparently linearly increasing in the competition coefficient, b, for each of three values of K2. Fixed parameters are L1=50, L2=60, ρ=1.2, ε=0.01, w=0.3. The grey dot corresponds to the case where 1−(b/K2+δ/ρ)L1=0 and 1−bK2/L1=0. Electronic supplementary material, equation S4a does not apply when b>L1/L2=5/6. Results were obtained by numerical solution of equations (2.4, 2.5) rather than of equations (2.6), from the same initial conditions as in figure 1, to ensure that M2 or C1 would not be eliminated.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Values of the contagion-mortality parameter, δ=m/r1, that yield a stationary front between M2 and C1 are apparently inversely proportional to the square of the carrying capacity of southern foragers without microblades, L1, for each of three values of K2. Fixed parameters are L2=60, b=0.5, ρ=1.2, ε=0.01, w=0.3. The grey dot corresponds to the case where 1−(b/K2+δ/ρ)L1=0 and 1−bK2/L1=0. Results were obtained by numerical solution of equations (2.5) rather than of equations (2.6), from the same initial conditions as in figure 1, to ensure that M2 or C1 would not be eliminated.
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