close
Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2006 Aug 1:32:375-399.
doi: 10.1146/annurev.soc.31.041304.122220.

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

Affiliations

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

S Philip Morgan et al. Annu Rev Sociol. .

Abstract

In the past few decades, demographic concerns have shifted from rapid population growth fueled by high fertility to concerns of population decline produced by very low, sub-replacement fertility levels. Once considered a problem unique to Europe or developed nations, concerns now center on the global spread of low fertility. Nearly half of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement levels. Further, by the mid-twenty-first century three of four countries now described as developing are projected to reach or slip below replacement fertility. We review the research on low fertility through the predominant frameworks and theories used to explain it. These explanations range from decomposition and proximate determinant frameworks to grand theories on the fundamental causes underlying the pervasiveness and spread of low fertility. We focus on the ability of theory to situate previous and future findings and conclude with directions for furthur research.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Regional fertility (TFR), 1950–2005.

References

    1. Adsera A. Changing fertility rates in developing countries: the impact of labor market institutions. J Popul Econ. 2004;17:17–43.
    1. Ahn N, Mira P. A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries. J Popul Econ. 2002;15:667–82.
    1. Ariès P. Centuries of Childhood. New York: Vintage Books; 1962.
    1. Ariès P. Two successive motivations for the declining birth rate in the west. Popul Dev Rev. 1980;6:645–50.
    1. Atoh M. Very low fertility in Japan and value change hypotheses. Rev Popul Soc Policy. 2001;10:1–21.

LinkOut - more resources