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. 2005 Feb 8;102(6):1963-7.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.0406718102. Epub 2005 Jan 25.

Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics

Janne S Kotiaho  1 , Veijo Kaitala, Atte Komonen, Jussi Päivinen
Affiliations

Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics

Janne S Kotiaho et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Understanding the ultimate causes of population declines and extinction is vital in our quest to stop the currently rampant biodiversity loss. Comparison of ecological characteristics between threatened and nonthreatened species may reveal these ultimate causes. Here, we report an analysis of ecological characteristics of 23 threatened and 72 nonthreatened butterfly species. Our analysis reveals that threatened butterflies are characterized by narrow niche breadth, restricted resource distribution, poor dispersal ability, and short flight period. Based on the characteristics, we constructed an ecological extinction risk rank and predicted which of the currently nonthreatened species are at the highest risk of extinction. Our analysis reveals that two species currently classified as nonthreatened are, in fact, at high risk of extinction, and that the status of a further five species should be reconsidered.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Relative distribution change (%) of butterflies in relation to their Red List classification (median and quartiles).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Density (ln-transformed) of butterflies in relation to their Red List classification (median and quartiles).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Larval specificity for threatened and nonthreatened species. Original data are coded as 0 for monophagous and 1 for polyphagous species. Bars represent mean and 1 SEM.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
Dispersal ability of butterflies in relation to their Red List classification (median and quartiles).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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