Understanding Real Estate Market Trends

Over the last year, nearly every FMCG executive I’ve spoken to whether sitting in Chicago, Paris, or São Paulo has echoed the same challenge: “We need to get closer to the consumer, faster.” Global brand, local nuance the future of FMCG growth depends on how well your leadership understands the street, not just the spreadsheet. It’s no longer enough to run a global playbook and hope for local resonance. Why? Because the center of gravity in FMCG has shifted. 84% of FMCG companies are now increasing local decision autonomy in key growth markets. (Bain FMCG Operating Model Report, 2023) → That means your CMO can’t be the only one with a finger on the pulse. → Your regional GM can’t just execute HQ strategy. → And your global leaders can’t lead with assumptions they need cultural fluency and operational humility. In other words: local-for-local is not just a supply chain shift. It’s a leadership shift. The most successful candidates weren’t those who had rotated through five global hubs. They were the ones who could… → Read the cultural nuances of consumer behavior in that specific region → Navigate the regulatory quirks that could derail a product launch → Influence global teams while building trust with local retailers → Speak the language literally and commercially They understood the street not just the spreadsheet. And they had the rare ability to connect what’s happening on the ground with what needs to be shifted at the center. These are the leaders FMCG needs now. → Strategists who don’t just adapt to the market, they anticipate it. → Operators who don’t wait for HQ they build and test in-market. → Connectors who know when to push back and when to align. Because in today’s world, speed and relevance win. And that doesn’t come from waiting for global sign-off. It comes from empowering the right local leaders. Here’s where I see many companies trip up: They treat “local” as junior. As operational. As reactive. The truth? Your next competitive edge may be a GM in Manila, a Marketing Director in Lagos, or a Commercial Lead in Warsaw who’s trusted enough to build strategy from the ground up. That’s what global FMCG companies are starting to understand and what we’re helping them solve for in every executive search we run. Not just global leaders who can work across regions…but local leaders who can lead across functions, cultures, and expectations while driving growth with urgency and empathy. This is the new face of global FMCG. Not centralized, but coordinated. Not rigid, but responsive. Not top-down, but built from the middle out. #ExecutiveSearch #FMCGLeadership #GlobalGrowth #ConsumerGoods #TalentStrategy #LeadershipHiring

The recent decline in mortgage rates—staying below 6.5% for most of September—is a meaningful shift for housing. Though it may not feel like much for those accustomed to 2% or 3% rates, even small drops can have a major impact on affordability.   For example, moving from 7% to 6.5% puts 2.125 million more households in a position to buy. If rates were to fall to 6%, that number more than doubles, pricing in another 4.246 million households.   That said, it's important to consider the underlying reason behind the decline: the cooling labor market. Our historical research shows a consistent two-phase dynamic between the economy and housing:   Phase 1. A slower job market initially reduces housing demand despite lower rates. This is driven by job insecurity and weaker consumer confidence. Phase 2. Falling interest rates eventually outweigh those headwinds, helping revive sales activity.   Right now, the housing market is still in Phase 1. This is consistent with the historical pattern where housing acts as a leading indicator—it slows before the broader economy but also turns the corner sooner. Zonda Alexander Edelman Trevor Tetzlaff Sean Fergus Sarah Bonnarens Tim Sullivan Keith Hughes Cameron McIntosh Kyle Cheslock

One thing seems clear after putting together lots of market indicators this weekend: The last few trading sessions were characterized by a significant reduction in levered exposures and index holdings, as well as the sale of winners to fund margin calls and (actual and anticipated) outflows from funds. The lack of an immediate policy "circuit breaker" has amplified the adverse technical dynamics. Unsurprisingly, the result has been a generalized and quite indiscriminate hit to asset prices (from stocks to gold), with most correlations converging to one for now. While this has created pockets of value for investors able and willing to stomach significant price volatility, the “when” is a much harder call given the extent of potential de-leveraging still in the pipeline, especially if the direction of travel on tariffs worldwide remains retaliatory rather than de-escalating. #economy #markets #investing #investors

One trend I'm curious to watch: What happens with construction jobs, and what impact will that have on housing demand and affordability? Particularly as apartment starts plummet -- as do other types of commercial real estate construction. Six observations/thoughts: 1) Current data shows overall construction employment continuing to expand, though at a moderating pace of 2.8%, the slowest since 2021 when the industry was climbing out of the COVID-era freeze. 2) Multifamily construction has been even more impacted. After surging from 2021-23, multifamily construction job growth has flattened off in recent months. That correlates with the plunge in new starts. We've completed 218,500 more multifamily units than we've started so far in 2024, which means far fewer jobs available for construction workers as they wrap up the current pipeline. (Note this BLS data excludes many trade jobs, which are tracked in other categories.) 3) The tailwinds for construction employment are increasingly giving way to headwinds. High rates = expensive debt = lesser construction (though single-family appears less sensitive to those trends than CRE). Apartment starts have plunged due to not only high rates, but flat/falling rents and slugging lease-up velocity across much of the country. 4) Potentially higher tariffs for construction materials could be another complicator in already complicated math. And any major shifts in immigration (whether deportations or further restrictions) in the next presidency could impact the construction labor pool (where immigrants comprise 40%+ of the jobs in many trades, per NAHB). That scenario might put upward pressure on wages even if construction levels continue to go down, which could (theoretically) delay a rebound. 5) The combination of variables points to prolonged headwinds in new construction and therefore construction employment. One counter factor could be single-family home construction, particularly if the new administration prioritizes a major incentive program to boost the supply of new starter homes. In that scenario, we could see rents rebound even as for-sale home affordability/availability improve to some degree. That would narrow the rent-or-buy affordability gap (currently at long-term highs), but probably only moderately -- not erasing the hump created in recent years given the unlikelihood of near-zero rates returning. 6) But bottom line is there are a lot of unknowns, including the potential for a construction employment drop to lead to a broader slowdown in national employment and wage growth. Thoughts? #housing #affordability #construction

🏡 Post-Pandemic Population Shifts Are Rewriting Residential Markets, and Investors Who Understand Both Demand and Supply Will Win New county-level data (2021–2024) shows a clear reshaping of where Americans live, and these shifts are directly influencing residential fundamentals. 📈 Demand Is Surging in the Sun Belt Harris County, TX (+273K), Maricopa County, AZ (+227K), and multiple Florida counties are leading the nation in population growth. These markets continue to attract new households seeking affordability, jobs, and lifestyle advantages. 📉 Coastal Urban Cores Are Still Shrinking Los Angeles County (-239K), Cook County (-84K), and major NYC boroughs remain in decline. These markets aren’t disappearing, but the fundamentals have structurally changed. 🏘️Rural & Small-Metro Counties Surprise Remote work stabilized, allowing many rural counties to enjoy a net inflow of ~670K residents, creating pockets of unexpected housing demand. 🔍The Insight: Demand Matters, But Supply Determines the Outcome Population growth alone doesn’t guarantee strong returns. Supply constraints, zoning, entitlements, and land availability decide whether demand translates into rent growth and pricing power. Some of the strongest opportunities today are in counties with: ✔ Strong in-migration ✔ Limited ability to add new supplies quickly That’s where durable value is created. Source: U.S. Census Bureau via Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies / Visual Capitalist #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #HousingMarket #SunBeltGrowth #PopulationTrends #MarketResearch #PropTech #MigrationPatterns #SupplyAndDemand #RealEstateAnalytics

Every single major U.S. metro (minus Milwaukee) currently shows trailing 12 month multifamily permitting levels below the 2020s cycle peak. I doubt anyone is surprised by this considering construction headwinds the past couple of years, but the market-level differences - both in terms of relative pullback and where permitting activity is still quite aggressive - are pretty interesting. On this chart the blue column shows peak annual multifamily permits (Census data based on 5+ units permitted) at the peak for each respective major U.S. metro. The purple column meanwhile shows the same datapoint based on current permitting activity. Then finally are the blue diamonds. This datapoint shows you the absolute departure in peak permits vs. current permits sorted from greatest to least. For the better part of the past few years, grouping markets as "Sun Belt", "Gateway", etc. has been done so with a broad stroke of the paint brush, so to speak. But I think beyond 2026 (effectively the terminus for the 2020s cycle's supply boom) you're going to begin to see some inner-regional splits on the longer tail of the supply cycle. Consider Austin, Jacksonville, Nashville, and Raleigh/Durham, for example. Urban Land Institute groups these markets together as 'Supernova' markets in the 2025 Emerging Trends report (a great term for those areas if I may add). Austin and Raleigh/Durham's current permits remain pretty aggressive in the grand scheme of things accounting for about 5% of existing inventory (the only two markets close to that threshold in fact). But Jacksonville and even Nashville show a 500 to 600 basis point departure relative to the peak level. Jacksonville's current permits account for just 2% of existing units - easily the lowest level for that market in a number of years. So within that 'Supernova' market profile, don't be surprised to see deliveries taper off much more in Jacksonville & Nashville vs. Austin & Raleigh/Durham. Meanwhile, ULI's "The Establishment" markets (i.e. Gateway + Chicago), there's a more consistent theme. Those markets all show about 1% to 2% of existing units permitted in the past 12 months, all of which are down about 100 to 200 basis points relative to the peak (excluding Seattle which is down more like 400 basis points). On this front then, I think you'll see less of a bifurcation in these thematically-similar markets as the 2020s cycle moves forward.

Based on a recent study by S&P Global, emerging markets will play a crucial role in shaping the global economy, contributing about 65% of global economic growth by 2035. While being present in well-established markets across the world is rewarding, it is equally important for businesses to invest in emerging markets, as they offer significant growth potential thanks to a rapid economic development, a rising middle class, and an evolving consumer behaviour influenced by a huge use of digital solutions. To succeed, businesses should tailer their operations, services, or products to match with local consumer habits. Affordability is crucial, as many consumers in emerging markets have lower purchasing power, so offering cost-effective solutions can help businesses reach a wider audience. Forming local partnerships can also provide valuable market insights, easing entry and building long-term trust. While emerging markets offer plenty of opportunities, risks such as currency fluctuations, and regulatory changes must be carefully and proactively managed. By staying proactive and investing in local expertise, businesses can successfully navigate these challenges and focus on the growth potential of emerging markets. #CEO #Leadership #business #Emergingmarkets #BFLGroup

Florida’s Hidden Housing Risk: 3,600+ Properties Now Underwater Even in one of the nation’s strongest real estate markets, cracks are starting to show. This map highlights more than 3,600 Florida properties now in negative equity--where the market value is below the loan balance plus closing costs (remember the Buyer's offer could be even less than market). And the pattern isn’t random. Clusters are forming across the state: -Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Palm Beach: Insurance and tax costs are eroding values faster than expected. -Naples–Cape Coral: Investor-heavy zones hit by price corrections and rising carrying costs. -Sarasota–Bradenton: Short-term rental demand is cooling in once-hot tourist markets. -Orlando–Daytona Corridor: Oversupply meeting slower buyer demand. -Jacksonville–Palm Coast: Delinquencies climbing alongside higher debt-to-income ratios. This isn’t 2008—but it’s a signal. Equity cushions are thinning. Homeowners who were safe six months ago may be slipping into need-to-sell territory today. If you’re an agent or investor: watch these hotspots closely. They’re likely to generate the next wave of distressed listings and short sale opportunities. Each blue dot represents one or more properties with market value below loan + closing costs.

This monthly report doesn't just cover sales, but is chock full of other data that often says more about the state of the #housing market than just how many homes changed hands. Prices Inventory First-time buyer share Investor share ...and one I'm particularly fond of, the sales by price tier and share of the market by price tier. Full disclosure: I like it because they only started doing it several years ago after I bugged them for the data each month ;). April was particularly interesting because it showed the biggest jump in inventory was in $1m+ homes and consequently the biggest jump in sales was in that tier as well. $1m+ now makes up roughly 8% of total sales. Five years ago that price tier made up just 3% of sales . It shows you not just the crazy #inflation in #housing but also the lack of affordable homes even listed. Part of that is due to investors holding so many homes in that affordable category, and part of it is that builders just aren't able to build affordable homes anymore. Part of it also is that owners in that price category can't afford to move up. National Association of REALTORS® National Association of Home Builders Lawrence Yun #realestate #realestateinvesting #homeownership #personalfinance #economy #mortgage #mortgagerates

Housing starts have plummeted to their lowest level since 2020, falling short of consensus expectations. The month-over-month decline is primarily due to a drop in the volatile multi-family groundbreaking. Compared to last month, starts have decreased by 10%, and they are down 4.6% from the same period last year. Single-family home starts were essentially flat in May compared to April but down 7.3% compared to last year. A decline in single-family building permits points to a weaker trend moving forward, with SF building permits declining 2.7% in May and down 6.4% compared to a year ago. Not entirely surprising, considering that builder sentiment in June reached its lowest level in 13 years, excluding April 2020 and December 2022. This growing pessimism was widespread across all HMI components. Optimism about single-family sales for the next six months dropped by two points, and current sales conditions also fell by two points, marking the lowest level since June 2012. Prospective buyer traffic decreased from 23 to 21. Despite the weak construction print, new home sales showed strength in April. What's going on? New home sales might offer a better deal for buyers than existing homes. The latest HMI survey revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in June, the highest percentage since NAHB began tracking this figure monthly in 2022. Additionally, the use of sales incentives rose to 62% in June, up one percentage point from May. Historically, new homes have come with a price premium, but that gap has disappeared. In April, the median price of an existing home ($414,000) was actually higher than that of a median new home ($407,200). This is partly due to price cuts and builders constructing smaller, less expensive homes. New home sales made up the highest share of total sales since 2005 in April. Builders face higher financing costs, tariff uncertainty, softer demand from elevated rates, rising existing-home inventory in key markets like Texas and Florida, and higher inventories of their own. This mix is weighing on builder sentiment and likely to slow single-family construction. The headline housing starts number for May was dragged down by a 30% drop in the volatile multi-family sector. But smoothing the data shows multi-family permits and starts have been trending sideways, suggesting stabilization. Tailwinds for the MF market include a small relative backlog, growing apartment demand (as affordability constraints persist in the for-sale market), and continued growth in the prime renter-age population.