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Showing posts with label Hurricane Ike. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hurricane Ike. Show all posts

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Gas Prices Going Up Again

It's been less than 12 hours since Hurricane Ike made landfall in the Galveston area, and gas prices are going up again.

"According to a nationwide survey released by the AAA Saturday," writes CNNMoney.com, "the average price of regular unleaded gasoline edged up 5.8 cents to $3.73 a gallon, from $3.675 a day earlier."

Gas shortages are expected because so many Gulf Coast refineries had to shut down.

President Bush says federal officials are monitoring what's happening and will step in if it appears that anyone is trying to take advantage of the situation.

"[T]he Department of Energy, the Federal Trade Commission and, I know, the state authorities will be monitoring the gasoline prices to make sure consumers are not being gouged," Bush said in a brief televised statement this morning.

Last night, the Houston Chronicle reported that the severity of the storm would determine "[h]ow soon refineries can start back up, tanker trucks can fill up at terminals and new supplies reach retailers."

It's still too early to know when that will be.

But this much is for sure:
  • One of the refineries is the #1 domestic supplier for the United States, and many of the other affected refineries play significant roles in U.S. energy supply.
  • Production and supply experts were telling CNN this afternoon that, even if the shutdowns are temporary, it will be days, if not weeks, before they can get back up to normal capacity.

    The restoration of power to the region will have a lot to do with how long the refineries remain shut down.
For the distribution points that depend on those supply lines, it is said that $4/gallon gas is back on the horizon.

The Galveston Hurricane of '08


BERJAYA

Destruction from the 1900 storm was so complete
the news didn't reach the outside world
until a message got out a couple of days later.


I doubt that the hurricane of 2008 that struck Galveston in the early morning hours ultimately will be regarded as comparable to "The Great Storm" that devastated the city in September 1900.

"The Great Storm," as it is remembered locally, remains the deadliest natural disaster in American history.

(Why, you may ask, was the 1900 storm not given a name like Ike?

(The answer is simple. The National Hurricane Center did not begin naming tropical storms and hurricanes until 1953.)

In 1900, Galveston was a booming harbor city, the largest city in Texas. Some residents had urged the city to construct a seawall, but the proposal met a stonewall of local opposition. The logic at the time was: The city has been here for 60 years, and it's always gotten through storms with few problems. Why go to the unnecessary expense of constructing a seawall?

Thus, the city was left with little barrier between it and the waters of the Gulf of Mexico when the 1900 storm brought a surge exceeding 15 feet (at the time, the city's highest point was less than 9 feet above sea level).

To its credit, the city learned from its experience and constructed barriers to protect it from future storm surges. A seawall was no longer seen as an unnecessary expense.

So, in its way, I guess "The Great Storm" served the same purpose for Galveston that the Titanic served for oceanic travel. It led to necessary changes and the abandonment of foolish assumptions.

After the Titanic sank, passenger ship lines made appropriate changes to improve passenger safety, revising outdated regulations and mandating enough lifeboats to accommodate everyone on board. One of the most important changes was the total abandonment of the assumption of the unsinkable ship.

After "The Great Storm," Galveston learned that lives could be saved and property could be protected if the city invested in a seawall. And the city abandoned its assumption that just because nature hadn't subjected Galveston to anything that horrific in the past was no guarantee it would not do so in the future.

Although the surge from Hurricane Ike was predicted to be higher than the surge was 108 years ago, it probably won't prove to be as devastating as the surge that flooded Galveston in 1900, thanks to the seawall.

It's not possible to talk to anyone who lived through "The Great Storm" and therefore gain the insight of eyewitness comparisons.

Reportedly, the last living survivor died four years ago. She was said to be 116 when she died, which means she would have been about 12 when the storm hit Galveston. Census records suggest she was younger than that.

Whatever Hurricane Ike's eventual status turns out to be in local lore, its impact will be felt for a long time.

Ten years ago, I got a hint of what was coming — although I didn't know it (nor, I suppose, did I have any reason to).

I attended a James Taylor concert in Dallas, and Taylor performed a nearly half-century-old song about the 1900 hurricane called "Wasn't That a Mighty Storm?"

If you were to hear that song performed today — and if it didn't refer specifically to the year 1900 — you would think it had been written about the hurricane of 2008.

"The Great Storm" was, indeed, a "mighty storm." Between 6,000 and 12,000 people perished in the 1900 storm, and damage figures (in today's dollars) exceeded Hurricane Katrina. The 1900 storm is estimated to have been a Category 4, although the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale that categorizes such storms did not come into existence until more than 70 years later.

Hurricane Ike made landfall as a Category 2 — but it's safe to say that Ike was not a typical Category 2. It was really more of a freak. The wind strength may have been Category 2, but the storm itself produced an amazingly large storm surge, which posed the major threat to Galveston and other communities located along the western Gulf coast.

Certainly, there will be extensive damage to Galveston, which will be revealed as the remnants of the storm pass through today and daylight makes it easier to assess what has happened. At the moment, in the hour before dawn's first light, it's impossible to put a dollar figure on the damages or to estimate the number of casualties — although initial reports blame three deaths on the storm.

Area newspapers will be the best sources for information, but with power outages, local reports may be spotty for awhile:
  • Science blogger Eric Berger has been monitoring the storm for the Houston Chronicle.

  • Corpus Christi appears to have been spared the brunt of the storm. Nevertheless, the Corpus Christi Caller-Times devotes the front page of its website to hurricane coverage — including information that the Coast Guard is planning to resume its search this morning for a teenager who was swept off a local jetty on Friday.

    According to reports, a large wave crashed into the jetty, sweeping the teenager, who had been walking with a companion, into the water. The reports lack specific details, but it has been suggested that the teenager was rendered unconscious when the wave hit, and he may be presumed dead. I've seen nothing that mentions preparations for his possible rescue.

    His companion apparently was rescued.

  • The Galveston County Daily News doesn't appear to have posted any updates since before the storm made landfall, but it will undoubtedly post information as soon as it can.
The storm left more than 4 million Houston-area residents without power early this morning. Estimates are that it will be "several weeks" before power is restored to all customers.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike Approaches Texas


BERJAYA
It now appears to be only a matter of hours before Hurricane Ike slams into the Texas coast.

Ike is currently a Category 2 storm with wind speeds of 105 miles an hour. By the time Ike reaches Texas, the winds may be anywhere from 111 and 155 miles an hour. The storm surge could be as high as 20 feet.

"If you live in mandatory evacuation areas and the storm surge comes, you won't have a house. It's not a question of riding it out."

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett


According to the Galveston County Daily News, the storm surge was already causing flooding in Galveston's downtown area this morning.

The Daily News' weather expert, Stan Blazyk, is blunt about the prospects.

"Unless Ike's track takes a sudden and currently unexpected turn to the north well east of Galveston Island, we are facing the highest tidal surge since at least the 1900 Storm," Blazyk writes (referring to the 1900 hurricane that wiped out Galveston), "and possibly even exceeding that if the highest projected tidal surge materializes."

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike Rearranges Football Schedule


BERJAYA
You know people in Texas are getting concerned about a hurricane when football games get postponed.

Saturday's game between my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, and the University of Texas has been postponed for two weeks because of the dire warnings about Hurricane Ike.

Texans are already fleeing the coast ahead of the storm, which is predicted to make landfall sometime early Saturday. Current projections anticipate a Category 3 storm.

The Arkansas-Texas game is supposed to be played in Austin — which lies in Ike's path, even though Austin is roughly 200 miles west-northwest from Galveston on the Gulf coast — but updated projections seem to move the path of the storm away from Austin.

Anyway, the real concern is not so much the hurricane as it is both the unimpeded inland movement of evacuees from the stricken areas and the arrival of the remnants of the hurricane — the wind and the heavy rain — which are predicted to be felt as far north as this area (Dallas) during the weekend.

Both teams have open dates on Sept. 27, so the game has been tentatively re-scheduled for that day. It was originally scheduled to be televised, but that is now undetermined. The time of the kickoff also has not been decided.

The Sept. 27 playing date could still cause headaches for both schools, ESPN says.

"It's the same weekend as the Austin City Limits Music Festival, which annually brings thousands of people to the Austin area. Hotel rooms are difficult to find throughout Central Texas during that weekend. It might be difficult to accommodate the Arkansas team party — much less fans of both schools — because of the festival. And it would also make for a tough stretch for the Longhorns, who start the Big 12 schedule the following week."

ESPN also points out that "Arkansas will also find its schedule more challenging now. The Razorbacks had an open date between games against Alabama and Florida, but now must play the Longhorns in the middle of it."

Well, that's the same three teams the Razorbacks were going to play in the next four weeks, anyway. The difference is that the open date will be this Saturday, not two weeks from now.

But re-scheduling the game won't put the fans or players at risk — unless another hurricane pops up in late September.

ESPN reports that other Texas schools also have made new arrangements for games scheduled for this Saturday:
  • The start of the Stanford-TCU game in Fort Worth has been moved up to noon (Central). The game originally was scheduled to start at 6 p.m. (Central).

  • Air Force was originally scheduled to play Houston at John O'Quinn Field at Robertson Stadium in Houston. Because of the hurricane, the game has been moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
The Austin American-Statesman also reports that more than a dozen area high school football games that were originally scheduled for this Friday have been moved up to tonight.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Ike Meanders Through the Gulf of Mexico


BERJAYA
Hurricane Ike is still making its way through the Gulf of Mexico — and it's still a long way from making landfall.

Experts seems to think it is still likely to make landfall along the Texas coast sometime Saturday morning. As a precautionary measure, some evacuations along the Texas coast were being ordered today.

A high tidal surge is expected in the Galveston area so the evacuation has to be completed by 6 p.m. local time on Thursday. And officials are warning that anyone who stays needs to be aware that there will be times during the storm when no services will be available, when electricity will be out and they won't be able to go out for supplies — "they will absolutely be on their own."

Current projections call for Ike to be a Category 4 storm when it arrives.

And its current path now calls for a rainy weekend in more than half of Texas and Louisiana and in most of Oklahoma and Arkansas.

But Ike's projected path has changed frequently in the last several days so keep an eye on it for awhile.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

What a Difference a Day Makes ...


BERJAYA
... in the life of a hurricane.

About 24 hours ago, I was looking at the projected path of Hurricane Ike, which had crossed over Cuba and was hovering over the Caribbean.

As expected, Ike had weakened into a tropical storm during its time on land, but it has shown a tendency to regroup when it gets over water. And it became a hurricane again over those Caribbean waters.

Anyway, at that time, it was expected to make landfall again sometime this afternoon, cross Cuba again, perhaps weakening to a tropical storm again while on land, and then head out to sea, into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it would strengthen into a significant hurricane, maintaining a west-northwest trajectory.

That projection model took Ike's path to the Galveston area, spreading rain over most of Louisiana and half of Texas by the end of the week.

But the unpredictable nature of hurricanes has shown itself in the last 24 hours.

Ike has proceeded across Cuba again, as expected, but its latest projected path takes it more to the west and less to the northwest.

It barely qualified as a hurricane when it hit Cuba for the second time, but it hadn't spent much time over water before making landfall again.

When it emerges from Cuba, it will have the entire Gulf of Mexico to feed its ravenous appetite.

And that could mean that Ike will be a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall again — wherever that might be. As this storm has demonstrated, long-term projections for hurricanes are virtually useless, and the National Hurricane Center says Ike could make landfall anywhere from northern Mexico to the Texas-Louisiana border.

For awhile Louisiana was out of the picture for significant rainfall, according to the projection, while most of Texas was going to get some rain from Ike.

And the hurricane was expected to make landfall south of Corpus Christi, Texas, instead of near Galveston — which is nearly 200 miles north of Corpus Christi.

But the late afternoon projection today now calls for Ike to make a sudden turn to the right while it's still in the Gulf (its projected path is becoming weirdly reminiscent of Kevin Costner's description of the zig-zag path of the "magic bullet" in "JFK") and may now make landfall near Galveston after all.

And the projection now calls for western Louisiana to see some rain this weekend, along with nearly all of Texas and all of Oklahoma. Western Arkansas should also see some rain, according to the latest projection.

Keep your eyes on this one. It could still do just about anything.

Monday, September 8, 2008

What Will Be Hurricane Ike's Next Move?


BERJAYA
Hurricane Ike made landfall on the island of Cuba and weakened to a Category 1 storm, but its present projected path would take it back over water before long.

And, in Ike's brief but potent existence, the storm has shown a tendency to intensify when it's over water.

It's still far too early to tell what the storm may do. Its current path would take it to the Texas coast, possibly the Galveston area.

But the path could change once the storm begins its trek across the Gulf of Mexico.

The Galveston County Daily News isn't sounding any alarms yet — but it's wisely monitoring the storm's progress.

At this point, that's about all anyone can do.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Hurricane Ike Makes Landfall in Cuba

BERJAYAHurricane Ike made landfall in Cuba today, and its projected path appears to lead it across the entire island.

After that, it's anyone's guess what it will do. The projected path takes Ike into the Gulf of Mexico, where projections seem to take it west of New Orleans.

But hurricanes can do funny things. At 7 p.m. Central time, the hurricane had sustained winds of 120 miles an hour with higher gusts. It was moving in a westward direction at about 14 miles an hour.

Once the hurricane passes over Cuba and gets into the open Gulf waters, there's no telling what will happen, although the projections call for it to continue moving in a west-northwest direction.

If you live along the Gulf, especially in Texas or Louisiana, keep your eyes on this storm. At the very least, it looks capable of dumping a lot of rain in your area before the end of the week.

There may also be some heavy rain in southern Mississippi and Alabama.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

There's Nothing to Like About Ike


BERJAYA
Tonight, Hurricane Ike is continuing its westerly trip through the Caribbean corridor between the tip of south Florida and Cuba.

Tourists and residents of the Florida Keys were told today to pack up and leave. They would be wise to heed the directive. At last report from CNN, Hurricane Ike has been upgraded to a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 miles an hour.

Based on the latest projections, it's going to come much too close to south Florida for comfort.

Cities like New Orleans and Galveston, Texas, that lie along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico aren't off the hook. At this point, it's hard to tell what Ike will do once it passes Cuba and Florida.

Coastal officials should keep their eyes on the situation. And remember the old English proverb — Discretion is the better part of valour.