Supreme Court kills overall limits on individual political campaign donations

This is from the Los Angeles Times:

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court struck another major blow against long-standing restrictions on campaign money Wednesday, freeing wealthy donors to each give a total of $3.6 million this year to the slate of candidates running for Congress.

Rejecting the restriction as a violation of free speech, the 5-4 ruling struck down a Watergate-era limit that Congress wrote to prevent a single donor from writing a large check to buy influence on Capitol Hill. It was the latest sign that the court's conservative majority intends to continue dismantling funding limits created over the last four decades.

Under those limits, donors could give up to $5,200 to any individual candidate for Congress per election cycle, and no more than $123,200 to all candidates and political party committees put together.

Acting on an appeal from the Republican National Committee, the high court left the individual candidate limits intact but declared the overall limit unconstitutional.

As a result, individuals will be able to give the individual maximum to every candidate for Congress, either directly or through contributions to a political party. That in effect raises the new maximum that can be given to candidates and party committees during a two-year election cycle to $3.6 million.

We now have the very best political system that money can buy.  If you have $3.6 million dollars, you can give to every candidate and through both political parties to make sure that your political viewpoints are heard above everyone else.  Toss in the practically unlimited corporate campaign contributions of Citizens United,  and you can pretty much purchase your own congress-critter.  It seems like we're moving away from a one man / one vote, to a $1 / one vote.  What choice is there between corporate and ultra-rich sponsored Candidate A, and corporate and ultra-rich sponsored Candidate B, when both candidates have pretty much the same political opinion on business regulations, environmental regulations, labor, wages, and economic issues?  When both candidates support big business and the ultra-rich? 

Harris Poll--24 percent Republicans believe Obama is Anti-Christ

This is an interesting poll from The Daily Beast, which reveals Republican attitudes about President Barack Obama. From The Daily Beast:

On the heels of health care, a new Harris poll reveals Republican attitudes about Obama: Two-thirds think he's a socialist, 57 percent a Muslim—and 24 percent say "he may be the Antichrist."

To anyone who thinks the end of the health-care vote means a return to civility, wake up.

Obama Derangement Syndrome—pathological hatred of the president posing as patriotism—has infected the Republican Party. Here's new data to prove it:

* 67 percent of Republicans (and 40 percent of Americans overall) believe that Obama is a socialist.

* 57 percent of Republicans (32 percent overall) believe that Obama is a Muslim.

* 45 percent of Republicans (25 percent overall) agree with the Birthers in their belief that Obama was "not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president."

* 38 percent of Republicans (20 percent overall) say that Obama is "doing many of the things that Hitler did."

* Scariest of all, 24 percent of Republicans (14 percent overall) say that Obama "may be the Antichrist."

These numbers all come from a brand-new Harris poll, inspired in part by my new book Wingnuts. It demonstrates the cost of the campaign of fear and hate that has been pumped up in the service of hyper-partisanship over the past 15 months. We are playing with dynamite by demonizing our president and dividing the United States in the process. What might be good for ratings is bad for the country.

The poll, which surveyed 2,230 people right at the height of the health-care reform debate, also clearly shows that education is a barrier to extremism. Respondents without a college education are vastly more likely to believe such claims, while Americans with college degrees or better are less easily duped. It's a reminder of what the 19th-century educator Horace Mann once too-loftily said: "Ignorance breeds monsters to fill up the vacancies of the soul that are unoccupied by the verities of knowledge."

Full results of the Harris poll can be found here.

The interesting thing I found about this poll is actually the link between education and beliefs in such outrageous claims. Going into the Harris poll data, there is this interesting data:

These replies are also strongly correlated with education. The less education people have had the more likely they are to believe all of these statements. Consider these differences between those with no college education and those with post-graduate education:

* He is a socialist (45% and 20%)
* He wants to take away Americans' right to own guns (45% and 19%)
* He is a Muslim (43% and 9%)
* He was not born in the United States so is not eligible to be president (32% and 7%)
* He is a racist (28% and 9%)
* He is anti-American (27% and 9%)
* He is doing many of the things Hitler did (24% and 10%).

Those respondents with no college education appear to have believed the more outrageous statements than those respondents with a post-graduate education. I do wish the Harris poll would have broken down the education factor by whether the respondents had no college degree, some college degree, a bachelors, or post graduate education here. But the results are certainly striking--respondents who did not have a college education had a higher belief that President Obama was a Muslim, was not born in the U.S., was a racist, and did things that Adolf Hitler did. The less educated these Republicans are, the more they are easily swayed by GOP hate and fear-mongering. Going back to the 24 percent of Republicans that believe President Obama is the Anti-Christ, I wonder just how many of these Republicans feel they are justified to take a gun and assassinate President Obama? After all, it only takes one to believe he/she is killing the Anti-Christ.

Now that is scary.

USA Today poll--Americans have 9-point favorable view of health care reform

It has been a while since I've talked about public opinion polls, but I do find this poll very interesting. This may be the first poll I've seen taken after the health care reform bill passed Congress, and was signed by President Obama today. It is certainly not going to be the last poll on this issue. From USA Today:

WASHINGTON — Americans by 9 percentage points have a favorable view of the health care overhaul that President Obama signed into law Tuesday, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, a notable turnaround from surveys before the vote that showed a plurality against it.

By 49%-40% those surveyed say it was "a good thing" rather than a bad one that Congress passed the bill. Half describe their reaction in positive terms, as "enthusiastic" or "pleased," while about four in 10 describe it in negative ways, as "disappointed" or "angry."

The largest single group, 48%, calls the bill "a good first step" that should be followed by more action on health care. An additional 4% also have a favorable view, saying the bill makes the most important changes needed in the nation's health care system.

Remember that the Republicans have consistently reiterated that the American people are against the health care reform bill. Now that the bill has passed, this first poll is showing that Americans are starting to warm up to health care reform. All that GOP fear-mongering over health care, and their incessant rhetoric that the American people are against health care has become baseless. Now with President Obama going into campaign mode to sell this health care law, I have to wonder what direction the next polls will be taking as Americans digest the specifics of this law?

The USA Today poll shows that President Obama job standing is at 46 percent excellent or good, while 31 percent call it poor. Congressional Democrats job standing are split at 32 percent good and 33 percent poor. The job standing for congressional Republicans on health care is 26 percent excellent or good, while 34 percent say it has been poor. More Americans apparently disapprove of the Republican job standing than approve. My guess is that Americans did not like the negative rhetoric, fear-mongering, obstructionism and hatred that has been spewed by the Republicans and the hard-lined conservative activists during this health care debate. Now it is starting to show.

Steve Benen at The Washington Monthly makes a brilliant analysis here:

This is the Republican nightmare coming to fruition -- the country gets a better system, Democrats get a victory, the president looks like a hero, and the country is pleased with the results.

It's not too late for Republicans to reconsider that "repeal" strategy, if only the party's unhinged base would let them.

The Republicans have certainly boxed themselves into a corner here. Moderating their strategy of working with the Democrats will anger their crazed, "unhinged base," that they've courted. Whatever moderates that are left in the GOP would also earn the wrath of Fox News and conservative commentators like Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage. So the Republicans continue to pander to the extremist votes. This will certainly alienate the moderates, non-partisans and independents, but will they continue supporting the Democrats this November? Especially now that health care reform has passed? I'm tempted to say yes, but it may be a close vote with the GOP pulling every dirty campaign trick and negative ads to use against the Democrats.

New poll reveals 23 percent Americans spend too much time online

Excuse me while I check out the latest OMG from Yahoo. In the meantime, you can ponder this revealing Rasmussen poll:

Americans increasingly live in a world of cell phones, laptops, Blackberries, desk computers and more, all wirelessly linked to the Internet, and now automakers even plan front-seat computers in some cars.

But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 23% of adults think they personally spend too much time using the Internet, computers and mobile communications devices.

Seventy-one percent (71%) disagree and believe the amount of time they spend this way is appropriate. Seventy-five percent (75%), however, believe young children spend too much time on computers and other electronic equipment.

In a survey last August, 51% of adults said they use the Internet every day or nearly every day. Another 14% said they are online several times a week. Six percent (6%) said they are on the Internet once a week or less, while 28% rarely or never go online.

Sarah Palin's polarizing poll numbers

I saw this story on Countdown with Keith Olbermann last night, and I found it especially interesting. First, here is Olbermann's story about Alaska governor Sarah Palin's polarizing poll numbers:

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

And here is the USA Today source story for all this:

WASHINGTON — Sarah Palin's bombshell that she is resigning as Alaska governor actually has boosted her a bit among Republicans, a nationwide USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, though it also has dented her standing among Democrats and independents.

Two-thirds of Republicans want Palin, the party's vice presidential nominee in 2008, to be "a major national political figure" in the future. Three-fourths of Democrats hope she won't be.

Independents by 55%-34% would prefer she leave the national stage.

The findings underscore how polarized opinions of Palin were even before Friday's surprise announcement. Seven in 10 polled say their views weren't affected by her decision. Among those whose opinions shifted, Democrats by a 4-1 ratio and independents by 2-to-1 view her less favorably. Republicans are somewhat inclined to see her more favorably.

"For independents and Democrats, she's already not their candidate, and with Republicans her support is not based on her record as governor of Alaska," says GOP consultant Alex Castellanos.

The poll Monday of 1,000 adults — including 321 Democrats, 323 independents and 316 Republicans — has a margin of error of +/–3 percentage points for the full sample and 6 points for the partisan subsamples.

Palin's complaints about unfair treatment by the news media resonate with many respondents. Three-fourths of Republicans, more than half of independents and a third of Democrats say coverage of Palin has been unfairly negative.

When it comes to a potential presidential run, the USA TODAY Poll displays Palin's strength in the Republican base and weakness among swing voters, who traditionally decide national elections. Republicans by 71%-27% say they'd be likely to vote for her if she ran for president in 2012, while independents by 51%-44% would not.

The results are just fascinating. Two-thirds of Republicans want Sarah Palin to be a major political figure, while three-fourths of Democrats don't want Palin on the stage. Independents want Palin to leave the national stage by a 55%-34% majority. Sarah Palin is the darling of the conservative base here, but she stinks like a dead fish among Democrats and independents. Palin's inability to provide a reason why she resigned as Alaska's governor still implies that Sarah Palin is a quitter.

There is also another interesting polarizing poll number that I found on Palin. This is from Rasmussen Reports, with graphic via Daily Kos:

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is second only to Mitt Romney as the presidential candidate Republican voters say they’ll vote for in 2012 state GOP primaries, but she’s also one of two candidates they least hope wins the party’s nomination.

Graph showing Sarah Palin's contradictory polling stance among GOP voters. From Daily Kos.

In a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, it’s close to a three-way tie when GOP voters are asked whom they would vote for – from among a list of six prominent Republicans - in the 2012 party primary in their state: 25% say Romney, while 24% say Palin and 22% opt for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

After that, GOP primary voters list former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (14%), while Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty each received one percent (1%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate.

However, among those same six potential candidates, Palin and Barbour are tied as the ones GOP voters would least like to see win the party nomination in 2012. Twenty-one percent (21%) of Republican voters nationwide say that of both Palin and Barbour.

[....]

Forty percent (40%) of GOP voters nationally believe Palin has hurt her chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 by resigning as governor of Alaska. Twenty-four percent (24%) say the resignation helps her chances, and 28% say it will have no impact on the race.

Forty percent (40%) of GOP voters nationally believe Palin has hurt her chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 by resigning as governor of Alaska. That is the key reason for Palin's contradictory polling numbers in the Rasmussen poll numbers. While the GOP voters may love Sarah Palin, and select her in a hypothetical 2012 presidential race, these same GOP voters are also saying that they don't want Palin to win the GOP nomination in 2012. I think the GOP voters are fearful that, if Sarah Palin wins the 2012 GOP primary, she still will not be able to explain why she quit as Alaska's governor, allowing a huge opportunity for the Obama campaign to attack Palin. The USA Today / Gallup poll reveals some interesting insights among Democrats fears of Sarah Palin. The Democratic voters see Sarah Palin as a national political figure that can ignite, and excite, the conservative and Republican base. And she certainly can excite the Republican base, considering the crowds that came out to see her during last year's election. The Democratic voters do not want Sarah Palin to be a national political figure because she could end up challenging President Barack Obama in 2012, perhaps winning as the first female U.S. president.

What I'm trying to say here is that I think fear is gripping both sides of the political spectrum on Sarah Palin, bringing us these rather polarizing poll numbers. We don't know what is going to happen in 2012, or what Sarah Palin's political future, or presidential aspirations may be--only Sarah Palin knows that. Either way, Sarah Palin is here to stay.

Majority of Americans do not blame Obama for economic downturn

This is from The Washington Post:

The number of Americans who believe that the nation is headed in the right direction has roughly tripled since Barack Obama's election, and the public overwhelmingly blames the excesses of the financial industry, rather than the new president, for turmoil in the economy, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

At this early stage in his presidency, Obama continues to benefit from a broadly held perception that others should bear the bulk of responsibility for the severe economic problems that confront his administration. Americans see plenty of offenders, but only about a quarter blame the president and his team for an economy that's in the ditch.

Despite the increasing optimism about the future, the nation's overall mood remains gloomy, and doubts are rising about some of the administration's prescriptions for the economic woes. Independents are less solidly behind Obama than they have been, fewer Americans now express confidence that his economic programs will work, barely half of the country approves of how the president is dealing with the federal budget deficit, and the political climate is once again highly polarized.

The percentage of Americans in the new poll who said the country is on the right track still stands at just 42 percent, but that is the highest percentage saying so in five years and marks a sharp turnabout from last fall, when as many as nine in 10 said the country was heading in the wrong direction. Fifty-seven percent now consider the nation as moving on the wrong track.

Overall perceptions about the country parallel a rapid increase in the percentage of Americans who say the economy is improving. For the first time since late 2004, the gap between the numbers saying the economy is getting better and those saying it's getting worse is in the single digits (27 percent to 36 percent).

Two-thirds of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the country's top job, and six in 10 give him good marks on issue No. 1, the flagging economy. Those figures are little changed from last month. But he receives lower marks for dealing with the federal budget deficit after submitting a plan that would see continued huge deficits over the next decade. Fifty-two percent back Obama on his approach to the deficit, with the public split about evenly over whether belt-tightening or big increases in spending should be used to try to improve the economy.

There is now a pronounced divergence between Democratic and Republican perceptions of the economy, a bigger partisan divide than the one that occurred 16 years ago after Bill Clinton took office. In early 1993, people in both parties were about equally likely to see the economy as improving, but now the number of Republicans who say it is souring is more than double that of Democrats.

A sharp rise in optimism has occurred among Democrats, who are about three times as likely to approve of the country's course as they were just before Obama's inauguration. Independents, too, are more optimistic, with twice as many feeling positive as in mid-January. Among Republicans, there has not been significant movement in either direction.

Obama's overall approval rating among independents has dipped six points, to 61 percent, and fewer than half, 45 percent, said he is doing a good job of handling the deficit. His approval rating among Republicans has dropped seven points, to 30 percent.

I think what is important to understand here is that Americans are still giving President Barack Obama the benefit of the doubt with this poll. They understand that President Obama is trying to fix the complex economic problems caused by the Bush administration, the deregulation, the housing bubble, and the excessive Wall Street greed that took place over the past decade. There is certainly a division between Americans on whether the country is heading in the right or wrong direction--where 42 percent say the country is heading in the right direction, and 57 percent say the country is heading in the wrong direction. With the serious economic problems taking place within the country, Americans are certainly divided, skittish, and worried about the direction of the country. And it is the same division with American perceptions on whether the U.S. economy is improving--27 percent saying the U.S. economy is getting better, verses 36 percent saying the U.S. economy is getting worst.

For the moment, this still is not an Obama economy. President Obama has at least a year to at least stabilize the U.S. economy, or turn it around. Americans may give President Obama a pass on the economy, but there is an expiration date. If President Obama and the congressional Democratic leadership can't turn the U.S. economy around by the beginning of next year, then they will the American voters' wrath in the 2010 midterm elections. And you can bet that the Republicans are just chomping on the bit, hoping that President Obama fails.

NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll shows Obama job approval ratings at an all-time high

Here are some interesting poll numbers from MSNBC News:

WASHINGTON - After Barack Obama's first six weeks as president, the American public's attitudes about the two political parties couldn't be more different, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds.

Despite the country's struggling economy and vocal opposition to some of his policies, President Obama's favorability rating is at an all-time high. Two-thirds feel hopeful about his leadership and six in 10 approve of the job he's doing in the White House.

"What is amazing here is how much political capital Obama has spent in the first six weeks," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "And against that, he stands at the end of this six weeks with as much or more capital in the bank."

It is not surprising that the American people are giving President Obama such high poll numbers. This economic recession started with the previous Bush administration, and the Obama team has been magnificent in placing the blame for the recession on former President George W. Bush. It is brilliant use of the president's bully pulpit, and the American people are giving President Obama a pass on this recession, as they wait to see the details on the president's domestic policies for getting this country out of the economic malaise.

The poll numbers for the Republican Party, however, are not so bright:

By comparison, the Republican Party — which resisted Obama's recently passed stimulus plan and has criticized the spending in his budget — finds its favorability at an all-time low. It also receives most of the blame for the current partisanship in Washington and trails the Democrats by nearly 30 percentage points on the question of which party could best lead the nation out of recession.

The poll numbers here are really reflecting the partisan bickering that took place during the debate on the economic stimulus package. President Obama attempted to reach a bipartisan compromise on the economic stimulus package, met with Republican congressional leaders, and the Republicans snubbed him over the stimulus vote. That is the drama that is being played out from Washington, and it is the drama that the American people perceive. The president appears composed, confident, and bipartisan, while the Republians are reduced to a partisan, bickering, obstructionist group.

But there is more to the story here. According to the NBC/WSJ poll, 68 percent of Americans give a favorable opinion to the president, including 47 percent rating President Obama as "very positive." In addition, 67 percent say that they are more hopeful about his leadership and 60 percent approve of President Obama's job in the White House. Yet the poll numbers show that Americans are not as confident with President Obama's policies, when compared to his popularity--54 percent say that President Obama has the right policies for the country. With the economic stimulus plan so big and complex, Americans may not fully understand the details of the plan and are a little wary of the plan's success. In fact, 57 percent of Americans support President Obama's economic stimulus plan, while 34 percent oppose it.

As for the direction that the country is heading into, 41 percent feel that the country is heading into the right direction--up from 26 percent in January. Americans are feeling a little more optimistic about President Obama's actions during his first month in the White House. They are supportive of the Obama administration's policies--the stimulus plan, the closing of Gitmo, the withdrawal plan of American troops from Iraq. But there is also a wait-and-see attitude with the public here. The American people are willing to give President Obama a "long leash" over whether his policies will help the country:

These high marks for Obama come at a time when Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the economy. Only seven percent say they're satisfied about the state of the economy, which is an all-time low in the poll. What's more, a whopping 76 percent believe the economy still has a ways to go before it hits rock bottom.

Obama, Hart says, "has done a Herculean job in raising the spirits and mood of the American public against what is an economic tsunami."

According to the poll, part of the reason why Obama's numbers remain high despite these economic concerns is that the public doesn't blame the president for the current state of the economy. Eighty-four percent say this is an economy Obama inherited, and two-thirds of those people think he has at least a year before he's responsible for it.

"That's a long leash," McInturff says. "It normally doesn't last that long. But believe me, that's a good place to start."

Yet McInturff cautions that while these numbers suggest a patient public, "Americans are notoriously impatient people."

This is a key point. I'd say that the American people are willing to give President Obama a year to implement his policies, and to see the results of policies effect on the country. They accept that President Obama inherited an economic recession. They are willing to give some time for President Obama to change the direction of the country. But if change doesn't come to a positive effect, then President Obama's poll numbers will start to drop.

This is where the Republican Party comes in. Right now, the Republicans are polling some very bad numbers:

Just 26 percent view the Republican Party positively, which is an all-time low for the party. That's compared with 49 percent who have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

In addition, a combined 56 percent say the previous Bush administration deserved "almost all" of the blame or a "major part" of the blame for the partisanship in Washington, and a combined 41 percent say the same of congressional Republicans.

By contrast, only 24 percent say that of congressional Democrats and just 11 percent say that of the Obama administration.

Also, the public overwhelmingly believes the GOP's opposition to Obama's policies and programs is based on politics: 56 percent say they're trying to gain political advantage, versus 30 percent who say they're standing up for their principles.

Finally, Americans don't seem to have confidence in the Republican Party when it comes to the economy. By a 48-20 percent margin, they think the Democratic Party would do a better job of getting the country out of the recession.

Republicans, Hart argues, "have been tone deaf to the results of the 2008 election... They never heard the message. They continue to preach the old-time religion."

McInturff, the GOP pollster, agrees. "These are difficult and problematic numbers."

The Republicans are certainly positioning themselves as an opposition party against everything that the Obama administration is proposing. They certainly want President Obama to fail, and are hoping that if the president's economic policies do not succeed in jump-starting the economy, then Americans will take another look at the Republicans and how they stood for their core principles. The Republicans were decimated in the 2006 midterm elections, and the 2008 presidential elections. They lost control of both Congress and the White House. The in-fighting we're seeing in the GOP between conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh and RNC chairman Michael Steel is really a power struggle for control of the hard-line conservatives--the 26 percent who still view the Republicans as favorably. This is the start of the rebuilding process for the GOP.

But the Republicans do not have much time for their rebuilding process. At this point, they are playing the obstructionist game to appease their hard-line conservative followers. But they are going to need to reach out to the moderates and independents that have voted Barack Obama and the Democrats into power. Reaching out to moderates and independents will mean that the GOP will have to present new ideas and new political policies that represent real change that the American people have voted for. Unfortunately, the Republicans are still presenting the same, stale policies and ideas for the past eight years of the former Bush administration. We probably have a year before Americans start demanding results of President Obama's economic policies. The Republicans have about a year before they will have to shift their attention away from the hard-core conservatives, and start courting the moderate and independent voters for the upcoming 2010 midterm elections. They are going to need to present political solutions to complex economic problems this nation is facing--depending of whether President Obama's policies really do fail to bring the U.S. economy out of the recession. So there is not much time for the GOP here.

Time to wait and see.

Congressional approval ratings jump from 19 percent to 31 percent

This is from Gallup.com:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest congressional job approval rating, from a Feb. 9-12 poll, shows a sharp 12 percentage-point increase from last month, rising from 19% to 31%. While still quite negative on an absolute basis, this is the best rating for Congress in nearly two years.

Congress' approval ratings have been below 30% pretty consistently since October 2005. There have been a few exceptions to this, with ratings as high as 37% in early 2007 after the Democrats took party control of Congress after their victories in the November 2006 midterm elections, but those quickly disappeared. More recently, approval ratings of Congress had been about 20% or lower, including an all-time low rating of 14% in July 2008.

Congressional job approval ratings from 2006 to 2009. From Gallup.

This month's sharp increase largely reflects a more positive Democratic review of Congress. Since the previous measure from early January, Barack Obama has been inaugurated as president, and now Democrats have party control of both the legislative and the executive branches of the federal government.

I'm thinking that Congress' abysmal poll ratings were due to the perception that they were a rubber-stamp for the Bush administration. Back in October, 2005, the Republicans held control of Congress and pretty much rammed down their own ideology, and conservative legislation, down the country's throat. Of course, in 2005, the scandals were coming out against the Bush administration on the intelligence failures on Iraq, Valerie Plame, domestic spying, and torture. The GOP leadership refused to allow any serious congressional investigations into the Bush administration's connection with these scandals. The 109th Congress, at that time, was considered the "Do-Nothing" Congress. Even when the Democrats took control of the 110th Congress, after the 2006 midterm elections, they could not pass much legislation with a closely divided Senate, and both a threatening GOP filibuster in the Senate and a President Bush veto. The 37 percent uptick in 2007 was a positive result due to the Democrats' retaking control of Congress. But the Democratic leadership still could not effectively legislate.

Flash forward to today. We've got a Democrat in the White House, under President Barack Obama, and the Democrats in charge of Congress. With the economic stimulus bill having passed in Congress, and President Obama signing the bill, it is not surprising that the congressional approval ratings have shot up by 12 points. And even though the poll was taken on February 9-12, the American people have been watching the political events taking place during this debate on the stimulus bill, and how the Obama administration has been moving this bill through Congress, attempting to provide bipartisanship with Republican congressmen. And so far, the American people have been approving of both President Obama, and Congress.

But congressional approval only goes so far. The big losers are, again, the Republicans:

Democrats' average approval ratings of Congress more than doubled from January (18%) to February (43%). Independents show a smaller increase, from 17% to 29%, while Republicans are now less likely to approve of Congress than they were in January.

Congressional approval ratings for January and February, 2009, by political party. From Gallup.

Job approval ratings for the Republican Party dropped 4 percentage points between January and February of this year, from 23 percent in January to 19 percent in February. Contrast that to the 25 point percentage increase by the Democrats, between January and February, of this year. You can blame this 4 percent drop in the Republican's job approval ratings due to the GOP's incessant opposition and obstruction against the economic stimulus bill. Even as President Obama attempted to reach out for bipartisanship on the stimulus bill, not a single Republican House member voted for the stimulus bill, and only three Republican senators voted for the bill. This stimulus bill comes at a time when the U.S. is struggling through a severe economic recession, with Americans worried about the employment picture, the financial crisis, the housing crisis, and the plummeting 401K retirement funds. And with the Republicans opposing the stimulus bill at a time when the U.S. is facing such severe economic problems, it is no wonder that the GOP's approval ratings are sinking. It is a high-risk strategy that the GOP is playing, hoping that the worsening economic conditions will turn the American public against the Democrats and President Obama, sending the Republicans back into power in the 2010 and 2012 elections--for both Congress and the White House.

Poll shows American support for investigations into Bush administration wrongdoings

This is a rather interesting Gallup poll to consider:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Earlier this week, Sen. Patrick Leahy called for a special commission to investigate possible government wrongdoing by the Bush administration in its anti-terror policies, as well as possible attempts to politicize the Justice Department through the firing of U.S. attorneys who were viewed as potentially disloyal to the administration. While Americans appear to support some kind of investigation into these matters, no more than 41% favor criminal probes.

These results are based on a Jan. 30-Feb. 1 USA Today/Gallup poll. In addition to Leahy's recent call for a "truth commission" that would investigate but not prosecute Bush administration officials, a House committee led by Rep. John Conyers is awaiting responses to subpoenas of former Bush administration officials regarding Bush-era policies and actions.

For each of three controversial actions or policies of the Bush administration, survey respondents were asked whether there should be a criminal investigation by the Justice Department or an investigation by an independent panel that would issue a report of findings but not seek any criminal charges, or whether neither should be done.



While no more than 41% of Americans favor a criminal investigation into any of the matters, at least 6 in 10 say there should be either a criminal investigation or an independent probe into all three. This includes 62% who favor some type of investigation into the possible use of torture when interrogating terrorism suspects, 63% who do so with respect to the possible use of telephone wiretaps without obtaining a warrant, and 71% who support investigating possible attempts to use the Justice Department for political purposes.

So far, President Obama has been reluctant to pursue such investigations, but Leahy and Conyers in particular are calling for an accounting of what happened on Bush's watch.

A couple of points here. It is obvious that the Obama administration doesn't want a congressional investigation into the Bush administration wrongdoings--George W. Bush is out of the White House, and President Obama wants Congress to concentrate on cleaning up the Bush administration messes with the reforms in the financial industry, housing, the economy, the frozen credit market, and such. There may also be a fear that, if the Obama administration concentrates heavily into investigations of the previous Bush administration, then President Obama may be on the receiving end of investigations by a successive Republican White House, or Congress, intent on exacting revenge against the Obama administration. Instead of political brinkmanship here, you could call this political fearmanship.

Unfortunately, President Obama is completely wrong here. Too many wrongdoings and criminality by the Bush administration have been exposed during the past eight years. We all know what those wrongdoings were--the Bush domestic spying program, the use of torture, the Valerie Plame outing, the politicization of the Justice Department, and the firing of the U.S. attorneys. As much as I would like to see criminal investigations into some of the top Bush administration officials--particularly Dick Cheney and Karl Rove--I seriously doubt that any criminal investigations, or indictments, will be handed down against these officials. Instead, I'll accept the independent, or congressional, investigations into the causes for these Bush wrongdoings, and what steps could be taken to stop a future administration from engaging in these same criminal acts. However, the American people are demanding these investigations, as per the Gallup poll.

One interesting detail here is, again, the partisanship that divides American opinions regarding the investigations into the Bush administration:

Perhaps not unexpectedly, a majority of Democratic identifiers favor a criminal probe into all three matters -- including 54% who do so with respect to warrantless wiretaps, 51% for the possible use of torture, and 52% for the firing of U.S. attorneys.



In contrast, Republicans are most likely to oppose any type of investigation, including a majority who say so in regard to the possible use of torture (54%) and warrantless wiretaps (56%). Republicans are more receptive to an investigation into possible efforts to politicize the Justice Department, with 24% favoring a criminal probe and 28% in favor of an independent panel report. Still, the greatest number (43%) of Republicans think there should be no investigation into the Justice Department matter.

Independents' views on all three matters fall in between those of Republicans and Democrats, with a majority favoring some type of investigation but (unlike Democrats) not a criminal probe.

There is not much to say here. Democrats are angry at the past eight years of Bush wrongdoing, and they want punishment enacted against the top Bush officials. Of course, the top three Bush wrongdoings are the domestic spying, torture, and U.S. attorney firings--all three have been written in the news media, and on liberal blogs. So it is now wonder that Democrats want criminal investigations enacted against the Bush administration officials. In contrast, the Republicans want these investigations to end. President Bush is out of the White House, so let's end the investigations. It is ironic that a majority of Republicans are against investigations into torture and domestic spying. I'm guessing that the Republicans want to cover up these potential Bush administration abuses, fearing a combination of criminal charges handed down against former Bush officials, and a further tarnishing of a failed Bush legacy. So the political partisanship continues on.

Gallup / CNN polls show Obama having upper hand in stimulus fight

I have found two public opinion polls that are showing some interesting results in the economic stimulus fight between President Barack Obama and the congressional Republicans. First is this Gallup public opinion poll:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The American public gives President Barack Obama a strong 67% approval rating for the way in which he is handling the government's efforts to pass an economic stimulus bill, while the Democrats and, in particular, the Republicans in Congress receive much lower approval ratings of 48% and 31%, respectively.



These findings, based on Gallup Poll interviews conducted Feb. 6-7, underscore the degree to which Obama appears to be maintaining the upper hand over his opponents from a public opinion perspective as he and congressional leaders wrangle over the precise form and substance of a new economic stimulus plan. (Recent Gallup polling also shows that a slight majority of Americans in general favor the idea of passing a stimulus plan of around $800 billion, a sentiment that has stayed constant over the last several weeks.)

Obama will address the stimulus issue before a nationwide audience on Monday night with his first prime-time news conference. He will also conduct town-hall meetings this week in Elkhart, Ind., and Fort Myers, Fla., as part of his efforts to help sell his view of the urgency of passing a stimulus package. The new Gallup data certainly suggest that these public relations efforts will find a generally receptive audience.

The data in particular show the sharp divide between the public's views of how Obama has handled efforts to pass a stimulus bill and its views of how the Republicans have handled this -- a divide that quantitatively produces a 36-point approval gap.

So we have 67 percent of Americans approving of President Obama's efforts in passing the economic stimulus bill, while 58 percent of Americans disapprove of the Republican obstructionism against the economic stimulus bill. And yet, the GOP is claiming victory in their opposition against the Obama stimulus plan. Who are they trying to sell this victory to?

The answer to that question is their 31 percent base, who will support the GOP regardless of how far the Republican Party will send this country into a huge disaster. These are the extreme conservatives, the Bible-thumpers--the folks who still give President Bush a 33 percent job approval rating as he left office. What this Gallup poll says is that all the rantings from the Republican congressmen, all the talk of finding their opposition voice, and all the obstructionism of the Obama stimulus plan, is really a PR-campaign to rally their base in opposing the Obama administration. This is a campaign to curry higher conservative voter turnout in the upcoming midterm elections to regain congressional seats, and hopefully control, of Congress. It is playing politics over policy. What is especially frightening is that if the GOP is successful in blocking enough of the stimulus package to make it impotent enough in failing to pull the U.S. economy out of its recession, there will probably be even greater economic pain for middle-class Americans, and probably for the base of the GOP residing in the southern states, and the Midwest. Economic pain for a high-stakes GOP power play.

A new CNN poll also shows similar results to the Gallup poll. From CNN.com:

WASHINGTON (CNN) — A new national poll suggests that three out of four Americans approve of the job Barack Obama's doing as President — but the economic stimulus package he's trying to push through Congress is not nearly as popular.

Seventy-six percent of those quesioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday give President Obama a thumbs-up when it comes to the way he's performing his duties, with 23 percent disapproving of the way Obama's handling his job as president.

And the CNN poll has these interesting details:

Three out of four Democrats support the bill, but that number drops to 51 percent for self-identified independents, and just 32 percent for Republicans. Nearly seven in ten Republicans questioned oppose the bill.

"Partisanship is alive and well — not just in the House and Senate, but in the rank-and-file as well," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "The partisan split that has been a staple of American public opinion for decades is alive and well."

[....]

Sixty-four percent of those polled say the current bill being debated in the Senate would help the economy a lot or somewhat, with 36 percent feeling that the package would not help the economy much or at all.

"The public may be lukewarm on the stimulus package because they only see limited benefits from it," Holland said. "Sixteen percent say it would help the economy a lot, but 48 percent foresee only some improvements if the bill passes."

The CNN poll shows a partisan divide with a three-quarters majority of Democrats supporting the bill, a 51 percent majority of independents supporting the bill, and a 70-percent majority of Republicans opposed to the bill. The Gallup poll also shows a partisan divide between the stimulus bill, but the results are more muddled with the Republican base:

Previous research has suggested that there is a sharp partisan divide concerning almost everything involved with the massive economic stimulus plan. The sense of urgency that it be passed is no exception.



Only 29% of Republicans are willing to say that passing a new stimulus bill is critically important, contrasted with the nearly two-thirds of Democrats who hold this view.

Still, a clear majority of Republicans say it's at least important to pass the bill.

The Gallup poll confirms with the CNN poll that only around a third of the Republicans support the stimulus bill, while the rest may think it is not important, or somewhat important. I'm guessing that the results were skewered by both the way the Gallup question was asked, and in its responses. But still, both polls show that, while the Obama administration may have wanted to bring bipartisanship into this stimulus bill, partisanship still remains both inside Congress, and the American people.

And yet, regardless of political party affiliation, Americans want some type of economic stimulus plan passed by their government. The CNN poll shows that 64 percent believe that the current stimulus bill would help the U.S. economy a lot, or somewhat. The Gallup poll shows that 51 percent of Americans believe the stimulus plan is "critically important" helping the U.S. economy, while 29 percent say the stimulus plan is "important." In other words, Americans support some type of economic stimulus plan to halt this U.S. economic slide. Americans want the government to help them out of this economic malaise. If an economic stimulus plan is not passed, then the lawmakers in Washington are going to feel a very serious wrath from the American people--regardless of party affiliation here.

McCain campaign pulling out of Michigan

I found this story through Americablog, with the original source story from The Politico.com:

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

McCain's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans had been bullish on Michigan, hopeful that McCain's past success in the state in the 2000 primary combined with voter dissatisfaction with Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm and skepticism among blue-collar voters about Barack Obama could make it competitive.

McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin spent the night after the GOP convention at a large rally in Macomb County, just outside Detroit. The two returned later last month for another sizable event in Grand Rapids.

But recent polls there have shown Obama extending what had been a small lead, with the economic crisis damaging an already sagging GOP brand in a state whose economy is in tatters.

A McCain event planned for next week in Plymouth, Michiigan, has been canceled.

Michigan is a toss-up state, with 17 electoral votes. However, Pollster.com is reporting that Barack Obama is leading John McCain by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. Public Policy Polling is reporting the same 10-point lead by Obama over McCain. Real Clear Politics is reporting that Obama is up between 7-13 points in Michigan, depending upon several different poll results.

I haven't really wanted to comment on polling results because I wasn't sure about the accuracy of this polling data. I'm not saying that the polling firms are adjusting their data to fit their own pre-conceived notions (perhaps some firms are), but rather that the American public may be saying one thing to the pollsters, while deciding to vote the opposite way on Election Day. So I'm not sure I can trust the polls' 5-10 point Obama lead over McCain, especially with the 3-4 point margin of error. So I'm watching the poll numbers with a quiet interest.

But this is a big story here. Michigan was one of the battleground states which both Obama and McCain have been fighting over. In order to win, McCain needed the Midwestern states of Michigan, Ohio, and perhaps even Wisconsin. McCain also needs Pennsylvania and Florida. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are leaning towards Obama, and the polls are showing Michigan turning completely to Obama. According to MSNBC News, the McCain campaign was spending $1 million a week in advertising in Michigan, even as McCain was sliding down in the Michigan polls. The McCain campaign also did not purchase commercial airtime in Michigan for next week, although the campaign did purchase airtime for every other state. Also according to the MSNBC story, resources will be sent "to Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and other competitive states." The McCain campaign has spent millions of dollars in advertising--especially the negative TV advertising attacking Barack Obama--in Michigan, only to see Obama's lead increase over McCain. John McCain has been sinking precious campaign resources down a Michigan black hole. No wonder he is shifting those resources into Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida.

But John McCain still has a huge problem. If Michigan voters are trending over to Barack Obama, with only five weeks left before the election, could they also be trending over to Obama in the other toss-up states? For the past three weeks, we have seen a lot of economic turmoil and jitters, with the stock market gravitating wildly--the Dow has dropped 348 points today. There is still a lot of worry over Congress' $700-plus billion bailout package for Wall Street, which has passed the Senate yesterday, and is now going back to the House with an added $150 billion bribe. Couple this with the Republican control of the White House, and with only a quarter of the country supporting President Bush, John McCain is in an almost impossible position to win the White House. And finally, let us not forget that Democrat Barack Obama has run a nearly flawless campaign, even as the McCain campaign has been throwing every negative, kitchen-sink, attack advertising against Obama. This is just a huge example of how badly the McCain campaign is imploding.

Eight out of ten Americans say country heading in wrong direction

The gloomfest continues here. This is off The Washington Post:

Americans are gloomier about the direction of the country than they have been at any point in 15 years, and Democrats hold their biggest advantage since early 1993 as the party better able to deal with the nation's main problems, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Despite more than eight in 10 now saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, coupled with growing disaffection with the Republican Party, Sen. John McCain, the GOP's presumptive presidential nominee, remains competitive in a hypothetical general-election matchup with Sen. Barack Obama, the favorite for the Democratic nomination, and he runs almost even with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Those findings indicate that McCain continues to elude some of the anger aimed at his party and at President Bush, whose approval ratings dipped to an all-time low in Post-ABC polling. Maintaining a separate identity will be a key to McCain's chances of winning the White House in November. Overall, Democrats hold a 21-percentage-point advantage over Republicans as the party better equipped to handle the nation's problems.

There are a lot of interesting statistics within this story, of which you can find the results here. But the important point to remember is that as Americans' mood continues to sour with the direction this country's economy is heading, that anger is going to be reflected against President Bush, the Republican Party, and GOP presidential nominee John McCain. So far McCain has avoided the brunt of Americans' anger because the election focus is on the Democratic race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. According to the ABC/WaPost poll, six out of 10 Democrats say that Obama has the better shot at winning the general election, however two-thirds of the Democrats also say that Clinton should stay in the race. Democrats really don't want the Clinton-Obama race to be decided yet, even though they know that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. What is especially interesting here is that the Democrats seem unconcerned that the protracted nomination battle is actually hurting the party's chanced in November, with 56 percent saying the contest had no impact on the party's prospects, and 15 percent saying the contest has been helpful. Only 27 percent say that protracted battle will cause long-term damage to the party. Democrats like that the media is focused on this horse race, giving all the spotlight to both Clinton and especially Obama. The ABC/WaPost poll shows Obama with a 12-point advantage over Clinton in a national race. In a hypothetical general-election race, Obama leads McCain by a slim 51-to-44 percent margin, while they split with 49 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for McCain. But this particular stat really shows McCain's problem:

McCain romps against Obama among the 16 percent who think the country is headed in the right direction, but among the near-record 82 percent who hold a pessimistic view, Obama runs more than 20 points ahead of McCain. Similarly, about seven in 10 of those who disapprove of Bush said they would back Obama over McCain, while McCain picks up most of those who are still behind the president. The trouble for McCain is that Bush's approval has slipped to 31 percent, and has been lower than 50 percent for 38 consecutive months.

The economy remains the biggest issue on Americans' minds, although its importance dipped for the first time since last fall. In the new survey, 36 percent cited the economy and jobs as their top voting issue; 21 percent named the Iraq war. All other issues remained in single digits, including health care and the price of oil and gasoline.

Talk about bad news for the McCain campaign. Americans who hold the pessimistic views of the country going on the wrong track are pummeling McCain by giving their support to Obama, who runs 20 points ahead of McCain. Even more, the seven in 10 who disapprove of President Bush said that they would back Obama over McCain--the Bush albatross is sinking McCain, and we haven't even gotten to the general election yet. The McCain campaign has tied itself to the Bush administration on both the U.S. war in Iraq and the economy (Supporting Bush tax cuts). So far McCain is sinking badly.

Barack Obama also holds double-digit leads over McCain on domestic issues of health care, gas prices and the economy, while McCain has a 21-percent lead on handling the U.S. battle against terrorism. Both Obama and McCain run almost even in managing the U.S. war in Iraq and on immigration. The Great War on Terrorism was McCain's signature issue for jumping into the 2008 race, the issue which would propel McCain into the White House. McCain would lead the U.S. through the war in Iraq and our battle against the evil terrorists! The big problem for McCain is that the war in Iraq took second stage to the slowing U.S. economy, giving Obama huge double-digit leads on both the economy and domestic issues. And with a majority of Americans wanting to pull out of the Iraq war, Obama has pulled to almost even with McCain on the Iraq war. So even McCain's single issue campaign of leading the U.S. through the war in Iraq has started to crumble, as Americans are demanding an end to the war.

Certainly not very promising for John McCain.

Clinton, Obama beat McCain over economy in LA Times poll

I found this very interesting Los Angeles Times story showing both Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama polling ahead of Republican presidential candidate John McCain over the issue of the U.S. economy. From the Los Angeles Times:

WASHINGTON -- Although Democrats are tangled in a fractious primary contest, both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama probably would win the White House against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain if the election were held now, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

Arizona Sen. McCain remains competitive, but the poll identified one important vulnerability: Voters ranked him lowest among the three candidates on who could best handle the nation's economy -- by far the most pressing concern for the public irrespective of party, gender or income. Of the three main candidates, New York Sen. Clinton inspired the most confidence on the economy.

In a hypothetical matchup, the poll gave Illinois Sen. Obama 46% to McCain's 40%, with 9% undecided.

Clinton led McCain 47% to 38%, with 11% undecided. The nationwide poll, conducted May 1 through Thursday and released Friday, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The results represent a shift from a Times/Bloomberg poll in February, when McCain led Clinton by 6 percentage points and Obama by 2, within the poll's margin of error.

"Although there is such infighting now between the two Democratic candidates, we are finding that both Democrats are beating McCain, and this could be attributed to the weakening of the economy," said Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus, who supervised the survey.

For example, among the 78% of voters who said they believe the economy has slid into a recession, 52% would vote for Obama, compared with 32% for McCain. A Clinton-McCain matchup showed nearly identical results.

The poll was based on telephone interviews with 2,208 adults nationwide -- 1,986 of them registered voters -- several days before and after Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, which Clinton and Obama split.

The slowing U.S. economy has become the big election year issue, supplanting even the U.S. war in Iraq. The LA Times poll reports that 56 percent of voters said the economy should be the top priority for the presidential candidates to address, over that of the 34 percent who said that the Iraq war should be the top priority. This is not a good situation for John McCain to be in, considering how McCain has already admitted that he doesn't know much about economic issues. McCain's economic plan is really another rehash of the Bush economic plan--more tax cuts, deregulation, cuts in domestic spending, and his ridiculous gas tax holiday. McCain has even admitted that "there’s been great progress economically" since the Bush administration took office and that "the fundamentals of America’s economy are strong." So that is a round-up of the McCain economy.

And the American people are not buying John McCain's economic happy talk.

The fact here is that John McCain is completely clueless as to the workings of the U.S. economy, or even how to address the serious challenges U.S. faces with this latest slowing economy, the housing crisis, the financial institutions mortgage meltdown, the huge U.S. debt, the cost of the U.S. war in Iraq, the job losses, the eroded U.S. infrastructure, and so many other problems this country faces. It is no wonder that John McCain is losing ground to both Clinton and Obama on the economy.

Of course, John McCain's entire presidential campaign was never based on the economy, but rather about the U.S. war in Iraq. McCain staked his presidential claim to the Bush administration's war in Iraq, calling it "necessary and just." McCain has advocated to sending even more U.S. troops to Iraq over the current Bush White House troop surge. Of course, back in 2007, the U.S. war in Iraq was generating most of the political headlines with the presidential wannabes aligning themselves over the war. The McCain campaign felt that they had a strong position in supporting the war as a means to both generate terrorism fears within Americans and to blame the Democrats not just losing the war in Iraq, but also surrendering to al Qaeda terrorists. It is still the standard talking point that the GOP used against the Democrats in 2004, 2006, and even now in the 2008 elections.

But the political dynamics have changed since 2007. The U.S. economy, and not the war, has taken center stage in the presidential elections. Pocketbook issues are now the big fear among American voters. And they are looking to the presidential candidates for the answers to the U.S. economic, and their pocketbook, problems. John McCain's presidential campaign was centered around McCain's "strength" as a Commander-in-Chief in fighting the evil al Qaeda terrorists in Iraq for another 100 years. The McCain campaign was never expected to deal with economic issues during this election.

Clueless McCain.

CNN poll: 70 percent of Americans say things are going badly

There is not much more to say about this CNN story:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The vast majority of Americans think things are going badly in the country, according to a new poll.

Seven in 10 people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday say things are going badly, with only 30 percent saying things are going well.

"It's been 16 years since the public gave the country's condition such a bad rating: January 1992, to be precise, in the last year in office of the last president named Bush," CNN pollster Keating Holland said.

"Seventy percent is a lot worse than two years ago, when 48 percent thought times were bad and the Republicans lost control of Congress," CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider added.

The poll indicates that presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain fares poorly against either Democratic candidate when it comes to most domestic and economic issues but has a big advantage on terrorism and a narrow edge on Iraq.

Let us see now. We've got a slowing U.S. economy, high gas and food prices, a slumping housing market, increasing number of foreclosures by American homeowners, a wreaked U.S. financial industry, and a still unpopular U.S. war in Iraq. Is it no wonder that Americans are turning sour as this year progresses?

Then there is this comment on McCain's "advantage" on terrorism and Iraq over his Democratic counterparts Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. While there may be a statistical advantage here for McCain with this CNN poll, there is another CNN poll reporting that the U.S. economy is taking center stage over that of Iraq in the 2008 presidential race:

INDIANAPOLIS, Indiana (CNN) -- A new poll indicates that the economy is issue No. 1 with American voters, now more than ever.

Forty-nine percent of those questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Friday said the economy is the top issue in their vote for president, seven points higher than found in a March survey.

The Iraq War is a distant second, with 19 percent of those polled saying it's the most important issue, followed by the issues of health care at 14 percent, terrorism at 9 percent and immigration at 8 percent.

"Through most of 2007, the war in Iraq was the top issue in voters' minds," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But starting in November, the economy and Iraq tied for first and by December the economy was in the lead. Now the economy beats the war by more than 2-to-1."

The poll suggests that inflation is the top economic issue for most Americans, with 47 percent of those questioned identifying it as the biggest economic problem.

The housing crisis, at 19 percent, came in second, followed by taxes,13 percent; unemployment, 13 percent; and the stock market, 5 percent.
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Both gasoline prices and food prices have skyrocketed this year, but 68 percent of respondents said prices at the pump concern them more, while 23 answered food prices did.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday, with 1,008 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

This is not good news for the McCain campaign, since the McCain economic policy has been pretty much a continuation of the Bush administration's economic policy of more tax cuts and deregulation. If Americans continue to sour on the economy, and if the U.S. economy starts to contract later this year, you can probably bet that Americans will tie McCain to the Bush administration's failed economy when they go into the polls this November. And I do want to point out that the U.S. economy grew by only 0.6 percent for the first quarter of 2008. If it is reported that the U.S. economy contracts during the second or third quarters, then I'm thinking that the McCain campaign will be in serious trouble in explaining how their continuation of the Bush economy policies will pull the U.S. out of a recession. No amount of war spin or terrorist threats would convince Americans to vote Republicans when they are losing their homes, their jobs, and their savings to high food and gas prices.

USA Today headline: Bush's disapproval rating worst of any president in 70 years

Not much more to comment here. From USA Today:

WASHINGTON — President Bush has set a record he'd presumably prefer to avoid: the highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll.

In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 69% disapprove. The approval rating matches the low point of his presidency, and the disapproval sets a new high for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

The previous record of 67% was reached by Harry Truman in January 1952, when the United States was enmeshed in the Korean War.

Bush's rating has worsened amid "collapsing optimism about the economy," says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies presidential approval. Record gas prices and a wave of home foreclosures have fueled voter angst.

Bush also holds the record for the other extreme: the highest approval rating of any president in Gallup's history. In September 2001, in the days after the 9/11 attacks, Bush's approval spiked to 90%. In another record, the percentage of Americans who say the invasion of Iraq was a mistake reached a new high, 63%, in the latest poll.

Assessments of Bush's presidency are harsh. By 69%-27%, those polled say Bush's tenure in general has been a failure, not a success.

Low approval ratings make it more difficult for presidents to maneuver, limiting their ability to get legislation passed or boost candidates in congressional elections.

"The president understands war and the slowdown in the economy weigh down public opinion, but the situation in Iraq is improving, and the economy is about to get a big boost from the stimulus package," White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said.

Bush has had dismal ratings through most of his second term. His approval rating hasn't reached as high as 50% since May 2005. He has been steadily below 40% since September 2006.

Views of Bush divide sharply along party lines. Among Republicans, 66% approve and 32% disapprove. Disapproval is nearly universal — 91% — among Democrats. Of independents, 23% approve, 72% disapprove of the job he's doing.

I love White House spokesman Scott Stanzel's spin on Bush's unpopularity. The president understands that the war and the economy are bad, but they will be getting better--you just have to wait a little longer. You just have to wait until January, when Bush will leave office and dump the entire mess on his successor. And if things are still bad in January, 2009--it is not Bush's fault!

I guess King George, The Deciderer is still fantasizing about history vindicating him--just like Harry Truman.

The real interesting number in this USA Today poll is the independents, with 23 percent approving of President Bush's job performance, and 72 percent disapproving of Bush. Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain will certainly try to solicit the independent voters with the message that he is a "maverick" senator who has butted heads with the GOP. However, McCain's political policies are pretty much an extension of the Bush administration's policies. And the independents are overwhelmingly disapproving of President Bush's job performance. The key point here for the Democrats will be to tie this albatross of President Bush around John McCain's neck, and force the McCain campaign to sink within the Bush administration's failures. And McCain is certainly tying this Bush albatross to himself, with his continued support for keeping the war in Iraq going for another 100 years, making the Bush tax cuts to the rich permanent, and allowing the U.S. to drown in even more debt. It is a powerful message that the Democrats can use to convince the independents to not vote for McCain, if they are convinced that a McCain presidency will really constitute a third Bush term. And if the U.S. economy and the war in Iraq continue to worsen to November, that will cause even more problems for the McCain campaign in their own desire to court the independent vote.

Mr. 28.3 Percent

I found latest Bush job approval rating from Pollster.com:

President Bush's approval trend has taken a sharp downturn in recent weeks, to fall to a new low for the administration at 28.3%. This follows a lengthy period of stable approval at around 32-33%.

Recent polls from Gallup and AP/Ipsos put approval at 28%, a new low for the Gallup poll. Harris recently found approval at 26% while CBS News put approval at 28%. Pew similarly has approval at 28%, though the Diageo/Hotline result for registered voters (as opposed to adults in the other polls) has approval at 35%, the only recent poll over 30%.

While the President has taken a back seat to the primaries in recent months, his new approval slump reflects growing pessimism over the economy which has displaced the war in Iraq as the most important problem facing the country. Likewise the percent saying the nation is headed in the wrong direction has continued to grow in recent months, to a high of 81% in a recent CBS News poll.

Now President Bush's job approval ratings have been staying within around a 29-33 percent range for quite some time. There have been a number of polls that have placed Bush's approval at 28 percent. And I do have a Reuters/Zogby poll that placed President Bush's approval rating at 24 percent. But this appears to be more than just a simple drop in the poll numbers--this could be the start of another downward trend in President Bush's popularity. Just look at the graph:

Graph showing Bush approval ratings from January 2005 to April 2008. From Pollster.com

Starting in January 2008, there is a downward sloping trend in the Bush poll numbers after the poll numbers had stabilized at around 33 percent during the fourth quarter of 2007. At the beginning of this year, something is causing Americans to turn especially sour against the Bush administration. We know what that something is--or rather, a whole number of somethings. It is the bad news that has been coming out on the U.S. economy, recession, job losses, the war heating up in Iraq, the financial meltdown on Wall Street, the continued housing crisis, the credit crunch. All of these stories are making Americans jittery and worried about their future, and about how this country is heading in the wrong track. And the downward trend in President Bush's popularity is a clear sign of Americans displeasure with this president.

I don't know if President Bush is really worried about these poll numbers, or if he doesn't really care anymore--he is gone next January. But this should be a major concern for the Republican Party, and for the McCain campaign. Whether they like it or not, they are trying to run for a third term on the basic Bush platform of tax cuts to stimulate the economy, business deregulation, more domestic spying, and continue the Bush war in Iraq. If things continue to get worst in this country over the next six months, and the American people continue to pummel Bush with even lower job approval numbers, both John McCain and the GOP could find themselves in an electoral disaster as Americans may decide that they no longer want a third Bush term, or to have a minority Republican Party continue to block legislation in Congress through filibustering. As we get closer to November, the importance of this election is really starting to stand out as a signpost asking Americans which direction would they like to take their country to. And on that signpost will be picture of King George The Deciderer, with his declining job approval numbers showing Americans just how far he has gone in destroying the prosperity and security of this country.

NY Times poll--81% say nation is headed on wrong track

This is from The New York Times:

Americans are more dissatisfied with the country’s direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll.

In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track,” up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2002.

Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems.

A majority of nearly every demographic and political group — Democrats and Republicans, men and women, residents of cities and rural areas, college graduates and those who finished only high school — say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said the country was worse off than five years ago; just 4 percent said it was better off.

The dissatisfaction is especially striking because public opinion usually hits its low point only in the months and years after an economic downturn, not at the beginning of one. Today, however, Americans report being deeply worried about the country even though many say their own personal finances are still in fairly good shape.

Only 21 percent of respondents said the overall economy was in good condition, the lowest such number since late 1992, when the recession that began in the summer of 1990 had already been over for more than a year. In the latest poll, two in three people said they believed the economy was in recession today.

Reading these poll numbers, I'm struck by that famous question Ronald Reagan gave back in the 1980 campaign against President Carter, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" It is a question that is especially prevalent today. An overwhelming majority of Americans feel that this country is on the wrong track. They are against the Bush war in Iraq. They feel that the economy is heading into a recession. And they are especially unhappy with the direction this Bush administration has taken this country. I don't see how things can get any better for the Republican Party within the next six months, or even for the McCain campaign that is running as essentially a Bush third term.

The New Republic's Jon Cole has an interesting take on this poll:

If you think that the solutions to most of these problems necessarily invovle creating new government programs or strengthening existing ones--in other words, if you're a liberal like me--probably the most encouraging finding is the response to this question: "Would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?" Forty-three percent say "bigger"--the exact same percentage that says "smaller." Not since since late 1991--when, apparently, the Times first began asking the question--did the public express such favorable attitudes towards government.

[....]

So what's the political lesson here? On the merits, the case for more aggressive regulation and a stronger safety net--not just in health care, but also banking, pensions, and other areas--has never been stronger. And the insecurity evident in this poll suggests people are becoming more open to these sorts of initiatives--more, certainly, than they have been in a long time.

After eight years of the Bush administration's deregulation and their philosophy of shoving "free market is better" philosophy down the American publics' throats, the American public may be waking up and realizing that this extremist Bush administration's philosophy does not work. The American public is starting to demand a greater social security net and government regulation to remove the corporate greed and excesses that have run rampant during the Bush era. There has to be a balance between government regulation to protect Americans from hardship, and to keep the system running fairly, verses the desire for competition and getting ahead. We've gotten far away from that balance, where the Bush administration is rewarding corporations excessive greed with perks and deregulation at the expense of the American taxpayer and Americans' ability to even compete or get ahead in this environment. If the U.S. economic situation continues to worsen, and even if the Iraq war continues to deteriorate, we may see even more Republican politicians losing their jobs this November.

CBS National Poll: Obama leads McCain 50 to 38 percent

This is an especially interesting CBS News poll:

(CBS) A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Barack Obama with a 16-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton among Democratic primary voters nationwide.

Obama, coming off 11 straight primary and caucus victories, had the support of 54 percent of Democratic primary voters nationally. Clinton had 38 percent support.

In a CBS News poll taken three weeks ago, shortly before Super Tuesday, Obama and Clinton were tied at 41 percent. Clinton led by 15 points nationally in January.

[....]

When all registered voters were asked who they favored in a head-to-head general election match up between Obama and McCain, Obama led by 12 percentage points, 50 to 38 percent.

In a Clinton-McCain match up, registered voters were evenly split, with 46 percent backing each candidate.

Obama beats McCain by 10 points among independents, while McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among that group.

I'm not sure how accurate this CBS News poll is, but I still find it interesting how Obama has created such a large lead over McCain. I'm wondering if this is reflective of the change message Obama has been pressing during the Democratic nomination, and perhaps how independent voters are approving this message. What is even more interesting is the reversal of the poll numbers in a McCain-Clinton match-up, where McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among independents. There is still a high negative image of Hillary Clinton among both conservatives, and perhaps independents, while McCain is still being viewed favorably as a "maverick" senator by those same independent voters.

Poll shows sharp rise of Americans dissatisfied with current economic conditions

I found this small story through Americablog. It is a CNBC story, titled Dissatisfaction with Economy Jumps: NBC/WSJ Poll;

The number of American very dissatisfied with current economic conditions rose sharply according to the latest poll conducted by NBC and the Wall Street Journal.

There is definitely a perception that the economy is in trouble. Interestingly, 85 percent of Democrats view the economy in dark terms, as well as 40% of GOPers.

According to our pollsters, 40 percent of folks are "very" dissatisfied with the economy. That's a 15 point jump on intensity, which is a sign this is becoming a greater concern, frankly, than any other issue.

Fifty-six percent of those surveyed said they expected a recession over the next 12 months, compare with 31 percent not predicting a downturn and 13 percent unsure.

This is the big takeaway from this poll: 2008 could end up being "the economy, stupid" and not "Iraq/Iran or Terrorism, stupid."

This, perhaps, is now a bigger problem for the GOP than Iraq was in 2006. If the GOP thought 2006 was tough dealing with Iraq, wait until they have to deal with an economy election. See 1992 as prime example.

Finally, do realize that when folks say "health care" is a concern, they aren't complaining about the care they get. But they are worried about access to it. They are worried about losing their job and their health care. Bottom line: assume health care is an economic concern more so than a medical concern.

The poll surveyed 1,008 adults between Dec. 14 and Dec. 17 and the margin of error is 3.1%.

It's the economy stupid. And the 2008 presidential elections are now starting with a failed Bush administration that has destroyed this country's economic future. No wonder Americans are feeling sour.

WaPost poll finds Americans pessimistic, want change

This is from The Washington Post:

One year out from the 2008 election, Americans are deeply pessimistic and eager for a change in direction from the agenda and priorities of President Bush, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Concern about the economy, the war in Iraq and growing dissatisfaction with the political environment in Washington all contribute to the lowest public assessment of the direction of the country in more than a decade. Just 24 percent think the nation is on the right track, and three-quarters said they want the next president to chart a course that is different than that pursued by Bush.

Overwhelmingly, Democrats want a new direction, but so do three-quarters of independents and even half of Republicans. Sixty percent of all Americans said they feel strongly that such a change is needed after two terms of the Bush presidency.

Dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq remains a primary drag on public opinion, and Americans are increasingly downcast about the state of the economy. More than six in 10 called the war not worth fighting, and nearly two-thirds gave the national economy negative marks. The outlook going forward is also bleak: About seven in 10 see a recession as likely over the next year.

This is a huge poll. First, the poll comes out just before the holiday season, and it reveals that Americans are pessimistic about the future of where this country is heading. We've got three-quarters of the American public favoring a different course for the country, than what President Bush has charted, and 60 percent of all Americans feel strongly that a change is needed after the Bush presidency. Even more interesting is that there is a clear majority of Democrats, independents, and half of Republicans favoring a change. Americans want change.

And here is where the 2008 presidential elections are going to become a nasty fight. In a sense, the 2008 elections will be a referendum on the Bush legacy. Bush is stepping down in January, 2009. The problems this country faces with the economy, Iraq, health care, high energy prices, inflation, will be the result of the Bush administration's irresponsibility and incompetence at dealing with these issues. Consider the WaPost results on Bush's job approval here:

Overall, the public's sour mood is evident not only in the desire for a change in direction but also in assessments of those who control the reins of power in Washington. For the fourth consecutive month, Bush's approval rating remains at a career low. Thirty-three percent said they approve of the job he is doing, and 64 percent disapprove. Majorities have disapproved of Bush's job performance for more than 2 1/2 years.

What is interesting here is that both political parties will use the Bush legacy to advance their presidential candidates. The Democrats will use the voter's anger against the Bush administration to pitch a question--Do you really want another four-to-eight years of Republican corruption in the White House after Bush? The Democrats are going to attempt to paint the Republican candidates as "Bush lite" candidates, who will continue to take the country down the same, disastrous path that President Bush is leading this country into. For the Republicans, it will be much more difficult. The GOP candidates will try to distance themselves away from the Bush legacy, without seeming to abandon the core 30-percent conservative base that still supports the Bush administration. In fact, Republican pollsters are saying that the 2008 vote will not be a referendum on the Bush administration, but rather about two completely new candidates. Consider this from the WaPost:

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said, "It is a political environment pretty heavily tilted toward the Democrats." One hope, he added, is that an early end to the GOP nominating battle will allow the winner time "to put the current administration in the rearview mirror, placing the focus on the nominee's candidacy and agenda."

[...]

Stuart Stevens, a media adviser to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, said no Republican candidate will argue next year that the country is in great shape, but he discounted the effectiveness of running against Bush in the fall of 2008. "A year from now, it's not going to be a referendum on President Bush, it's going to be a choice between two candidates," he said.

But there is a problem with this GOP viewpoint that the election will be about two new candidates--the Republican Party has been decimated by the disastrous policies and incompetence of the Bush administration. The Republican Party has been tarnished by President Bush. Consider this from the WaPost:

Whatever their dissatisfaction with the Democrats, however, a majority of Americans, 54 percent, said they want the party to emerge from the 2008 election in control of Congress; 40 percent would prefer the GOP to retake power. One reason is that 32 percent approve of congressional Republicans, and in a series of other measures it becomes clear that the eventual Republican nominee for president may be burdened by a tarnished party label in the general election.

Thirty-nine percent of Americans said they now have a favorable impression of the Republican Party, lower than at any point since December 1998, when Republicans were in the midst of impeachment proceedings against then-President Bill Clinton.

Among the GOP rank and file, Republican favorability has fallen 15 percentage points since March 2006 (from 93 percent to 78 percent). It has dropped 19 points among independents, whose support for Democratic candidates in last year's midterm elections contributed significantly to GOP losses in the House and the Senate.

Only 23 percent of those surveyed said they want to keep going "in the direction Bush has been taking us," and the appetite for change is as high as it was in the summer of 1992, in the lead-up to Bill Clinton's defeat of President George H.W. Bush. It is significantly higher than it was in the summer of 2000 or the fall of 1988.

The Republican Party is no longer a favorable party now. I'm guessing that the 15 percentage point drop among the rank-and-file GOP voters are mainly from the Religious Right, and their distaste among the top four presidential candidates. The independents have left the GOP, and voted Democrat in the 2006 congressional elections. And Americans seem to want the Democrats to continue to maintain control of Congress after 2008, considering the 32 percent approval rating that is given for congressional Republicans is lower than the 36 percent approval rating that is given to the congressional Democrats. For the past seven years, the Republican congressmen have been goose-stepping to the Bush administration's orders, even at the risk of angering their own constituents, and their own political careers. Now the voter's anger is starting to register against the GOP congressmen. If the Republican congressmen continue down this destructive path of blindly following the Bush administration's failed policies through 2008, we could see quite a few of these GOP congresscritters standing in the unemployment lines.

There is a lot more details in this WaPost poll, but I'm going to stop here for the moment. The important factor to consider is that a clear majority of Americans want some type of change away from the failed policies of this Bush administration. If the current economic situation, and the Iraq war, continue to worsen, then we're going to see a greater number of Americans demanding change in 2008. And with President Bush and the Republican Party in the White House, I'm not sure how this could help them in the 2008 presidential elections.