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The real causes of the bubble were rapid changes in the mortgage lending industry, rating agencies that didn't account for those changes, combined with a lack of regulatory oversight. 1/
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Thread on new home sales across country. "Interest lists are shrinking slightly. Likely just too much price pressure."https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1406283728393949188 …
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June 19th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/june-19th-covid-19-new-cases.html … America will come close on the 70% goal, and might meet the 160 million total vaccinated goal by July 4. But the problem is in the states that haven't achieved 50% of adults with one shot yetpic.twitter.com/q2NmmPaYLk
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Schedule for Week of June 20, 2021 https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-20-2021.html … The key reports this week are the third estimate of Q1 GDP, May New and Existing Home Sales, and Personal Income and Outlays for May.
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Random thought: A contributing factor to every financial crisis is some clever new way to do unregulated (or poorly regulated) finance. Like shadow banking in the GFC. Especially if the new way involves leverage. Finance is not the economy, it is just grease for the wheels.
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The Housing Conundrum https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/the-housing-conundrum.html … I've seen several housing booms and busts in my life. My Spidey senses are tingling again, however it isn't obvious why this time - or what the outcome will be.
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June 18th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/june-18th-covid-19-new-cases.html …pic.twitter.com/RiAobbCbbI
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Retweetol používateľ Bill McBride
Update on institutional single-family rental (SFR) ownership in top 20 markets. Only 2% of homes are owned by investors with 100+ portfolio. That % jumps to 7% if you include investors owning 11-99 properties.
#Atlanta,#Indianapolis,#Jacksonville,#Nashville highest.pic.twitter.com/VS6ylF5rrm
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Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 10% https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/q2-gdp-forecasts-around-10_18.html …
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Indiana Real Estate in May: Sales Up 25% YoY, Inventory Down 48% YoY https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/indiana-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-25.html …
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Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/black-knight-number-of-homeowners-in_18.html …pic.twitter.com/5ofhVK2PGR
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Lawler update on Dismal Demographics: "Provisional data show US births over the 12 month period ending March 2021 at 3.565 million, and US deaths over that period at 3.521 million ... the so-called “natural” increase in the US population was barely positive."
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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html …
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Existing Home Inventory: Local Markets https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/existing-home-inventory-local-markets.html … Little change from April to May.
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June 17th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations; Illinois Reaches 70% Goal https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/june-17th-covid-19-new-cases.html … Congratulations to the residents of Illinois on joining the 70% club! Go for 80%!!!pic.twitter.com/KBfzSK0tA0
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Rhode Island Real Estate in May: Sales Up 21% YoY, Inventory Down 62% YoY https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/rhode-island-real-estate-in-may-sales.html …
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 10% Compared to Same Week in 2019 https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/hotels-occupancy-rate-down-10-compared.html … The occupancy rate is down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down double digits.pic.twitter.com/mjRN7J7tDA
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Phoenix Real Estate in May: Sales Up 33% YoY, Active Inventory Down 54% YoY https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/phoenix-real-estate-in-may-sales-up-33.html … Inventory in May was up 14.9% from last month.
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 412,000 https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/06/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_17.html …pic.twitter.com/oO8lUxShIO
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Merrill: "The Fed is on track to announce tapering at an upcoming meeting - we continue to think the September meeting is most likely with tapering beginning at the turn of the year."
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to chew on over weekend. Mid-June update from 100+home builders across country. 1) rumblings of price ceiling. 2) slightly shrinking pool of qualified buyers. 3) some home releases not selling out immediately. 4) normal summer slowing as vacations take priority.