Peace, order and good government, eh?

Four professors involved in researching income inequality in Canada took a close look at the National Household Survey and what it appeared to tell us, and then put it into context.

According to the NHS, many of the census tracts where low-income people live have seen their average incomes rise, while the highest-income census tracts in the country have lower average incomes. If true, this means we are now a more equal society with a much larger middle-income group. The rich are not so rich; the poor are not so poor.

But when the data was compared to income data from the Canada Revenue Agency where, as the authors point out, supplying accurate information is still mandatory, the NHS results don't stand up.

In short, all the good news from the NHS is nonsense.

The sad thing is that the news is now "official." It comes from official government of Canada statistics. It will, no doubt, be used in partisan ways. It will be used to confuse the debate about the growing gap between rich and poor. It will be used to make it appear that Canada is becoming more equal, when the opposite is happening.

And so they arrive at the inevitable conclusion:

The income data in the National Household Survey is not valid. It should not be used or cited. It should be withdrawn.

If it's more difficult to demonstrate the reality of growing income inequality because the evidence is suspect or contradictory, it's more difficult to make the case for doing something about it.

I'm prepared to believe that when Tony Clement eliminated the manadatory long census form prior to the 2011 census, he didn't actually intend to make rural communities in the western provinces disappear. After all, rural communities in the west would be a big part of the CPC's base of support. But when you implement a policy for ideological reasons and without the proper study, unintended consequences will happen.

A tiny community in Saskatchewan will be placed back on the statistical map of Canada after it was accidentally turned into a ghost town in the 2011 census.

Industry Minister James Moore offered reassurances last week that Davin, Sask., will no longer appear in the census with a population of zero -- a mistake that was threatening to cut off the hamlet from provincial grants for municipalities.

...

But while Davin's existential crisis is over, there are still many other small communities in Canada that are vanishing from the statistical landscape, thanks to the ongoing fallout over the federal government's decision to end the mandatory, long-form census.

The linked article explains the problem and also includes some interesting comments from a statistical analyst in Saskatchewan who plans to retire if the mandatory long form isn't restored because "There won't be anything to analyze."

Isn't it about time for someone to remind us that despite their flaws, at least the Conservatives can be counted on for mostly competent government?

This is Davy Knowles at a music festival in Colorado a couple of years back covering Cream's version of Outside Woman Blues.

Government defends security certificate process in high court submission

The federal government says suspected terrorists and spies detained under national security certificates do not have a right to full disclosure of information in the case against them.

That's the lead paragraph for a story about the federal government's submission in advance of a Supreme Court hearing next month in the matter of the security certificate against Mohamed Harkat, who's challenging the constitutionality of the process.

That lead states the government's position pretty clearly: the right to due process can be revoked for certain individuals by virtue of a mere accusation of terrorism or spying. Proof isn't necessary and in fact, if the cases like this to date are any indication, the accusation itself is enough to lower the standard of evidence necessary to make the case against the accused. This is a two-tier justice system.

The notion that a government can selectively respect rights at its own discretion has no place in a democratic society. It's too easily subject to abuse. And our current federal government is a good example of one that might give in to the temptation to abuse it.

It isn't mentioned in this story but this is the case which will see our highest court hold an unprecedented secret session next month.

We're bending our system of justice out of shape in the name of fighting terrorism.

A few months ago, Dean Del Mastro expressed his impatience with the Elections Canada investigation into his campaign spending.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's parliamentary secretary is demanding that Elections Canada put its cards on the table after more than a year of unresolved allegations concerning his 2008 campaign expenses.

I think this might qualify as "cards on the table", don't you?

Elections Canada announced Thursday that it has laid four charges under the Canada Elections Act against the Conservative MP and three charges against Richard McCarthy, Del Mastro's official agent for the 2008 election campaign.

And with that, the Deaner is suspended from the Conservative caucus and from his role as Parliamentary Secretary. So I'm pretty sure his long absence from Ethics committee meetings will continue. And where he was once one of the main government attack poodles, I guess we'll be missing his dulcet tones in Question Period the next time the subject of robocalls is raised.

We might see more tears, though, if he ever agrees to appear in front of TV cameras again.

Thomas Mulcair, NDP running on electoral reform in 2015

Last night, in Toronto, Opposition Leader Thomas Mulcair joined Toronto-Danforth MP Craig Scott at "Democracy Day on the Danforth," a meeting jointly held by Fair Vote Canada and the riding's NDP association, to discuss changing the way Canadians vote.

Mulcair announced clearly and precisely that a vote for the NDP in 2015 is a vote for electoral reform, and that "we will treat it as a mandate for change".

...

MP Scott then took the audience through a presentation of the NDP's proposals, which are for a mixed-member proportional representation system using flexible party lists.

Justin Trudeau has publicly stated his own preference for a ranked ballot system but has there been any indication that implementing that or any similar reform will be a part of the next Liberal election campaign?

Good evening. Here's a young Johnny Winter performing Mama, Talk to Your Daughter (h/t to Moose).

Hamilton neighbourhoods vanishing from new 'census'

The death of the long-form census has left Hamilton full of "black holes" of neighbourhood data, leaving out many of its poorest areas.

According to a new report from the Social Planning and Research Council, that could lead to bad policy choices and inappropriate spending that won't help the people who need it most.

That means decisions on social program funding will be made "scrambling in the dark," says Sara Mayo, social planner with the council.

"It's a huge concern in Hamilton," she said. "It's vital to have data from these neighbourhoods."

As noted previously, in those areas where StatsCan's confidence in the reliability of the data collected through the new National Household Survey is low enough, the agency is simply not publishing. You can request the information and get it, but it will come with a caution that it's of low quality.

If there is less data available concerning the poorest among us, it becomes that much easier to pretend they're not there and govern accordingly.

Have some pops from the past. This is Lightnin' Hopkins with Couldn't Be Satisfied.

Toby Sanger has a post up at The Progressive Economics Forum discussing the effects of changes the Harper government made to the census. Specifically, the Conservatives eliminated the mandatory census long form and substituted a voluntary National Household Survey despite the warnings of, well, pretty much everyone who knows anything about statistics that the change would damage the reliability of the resulting data.

As Sanger notes, Statistics Canada has declined to publish information it normally would on low income Canadians because the data is unreliable. Instead they've issued a note to let readers know that the info is available on request but should be viewed with much more skepticism than would previously have been required for this kind of data set.