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Will Big Business Force Boehner To Give In On The Budget?

The government has been shut down due to the Republican inability to govern and contempt for the democratic process. Lately even the Iranians are appearing more rational. The question now is what happens next. Some believe that the shutdown makes it less likely for the Republicans to refuse to raise the debt ceiling. On the other hand, if the Republicans are still not willing to act in good faith on the budget, is there really reason to believe they will suddenly become more sensible on the debt ceiling?

This crisis is purely re Republican creation. John Boehner can end this any time he chooses. Instead Boehner prefers to play political games, such as with the latest games he is playing over veterans. If Boehner wants to end the shutdown he can do so by allowing a handful of moderate Republicans to vote along with the Democratic minority to pass a clean budget which does not attempt to reverse the results of the last election, eliminate a law which has passed Congress and been upheld by the Supreme Court. Besides, if allowed to see what Obamacare really contains, a vast majority support it:

Here are figures from Kaiser’s March 2013 poll:

Tax credits for small businesses to buy insurance: 88% in favor.

Closing the Medicare drug benefit doughnut hole: 81% in favor.

Extension of dependent coverage to offspring up to age 26: 76% in favor.

Expanding Medicaid: 71% in favor.

Ban on exclusions for preexisting conditions: 66% in favor.

Employer mandate: 57% in favor.

If you agree with those provisions, congratulations: You love Obamacare. Yet when respondents are asked how they feel about “Obamacare,” they’re against it.

Maybe that is the point. Republican leaders realize they have to stop Obamacare now because Americans will love it once it is fully in effect. Plus they will no longer be able to lie about what is contained in the law.

The Tea Baggers in Congress show no likelihood of compromise or rational action. Ideological fervor combined with vast ignorance is a dangerous combination. Maybe this will end by Boehner giving in and allowing a bipartisan House majority to pass a clean budget bill. Maybe he will be forced to give in, if not by public opinion than by one of the Republicans main constituencies, big business. There is not much future left for the Republican Party if their actions cause big business to defect to the Democrats, and there are signs that this is now happening. Just as old fashioned country club Republicans never had much use for the religious right, businessmen have no use for the Tea Party if it continues to act in a manner which cripples the economy.

Republicans Unable To Shift Blame For Their Recklessness

The Republicans have once again shown that they are incapable of governing responsibly by giving into the Tea Party extremists and bringing about the shutdown. They further show their lack of integrity by trying to place the blame for their actions on Barack Obama and the Democrats. This shut down is 100 percent the fault of the Republicans. There is no blame to share. The Republicans have no business trying to hold the Affordable Care Act hostage in these negotiations. Obama is right that “This perpetual cycle of brinksmanship and crisis has to end once and for all.”

The Republicans are having difficulty so far in placing the blame for their actions on others, fooling only right wing ideologues and sheep. While flipping through the channels after midnight last night I noticed Chuck Todd questioning the Republican line. If the Republicans lost Chuck Todd, this hopefully means that they will lose many in the mainstream media who practice the false objectivity of artificially placing the truth half-way between the claims of each party.

The Republicans are not fooling the American people, with a new Quinnipiac poll showing the Democrats leading the Republicans in a generic Congressional poll by 43 percent to 34 percent. We can’t read too much into a margin which will probably drop after the current crisis ends, but such a wide margin could mean that the Republicans really are risking control of the House. The Republicans have a built-in advantage in the House as Democrats tend to be more highly concentrated in urban districts. Gerrymandering after the 2010 election further strengthened the Republicans. After the 2012 elections, when more people voted for Democrats for Congress than Republicans,  Think Progress calculated that it would take over a seven point lead by Democrats to take control of the House.  That sounds quite difficult, but if the Republicans continue to act this recklessly a wave election which changes control of the House no longer looks impossible.

Polls Show Limited Support For Congress, the Tea Party, and Delaying Obamacare

As the irresponsible extremists in control of the Republican Party are bringing us to the brink of a government shutdown, polls show a majority opposing how the Republicans are handling the budget battle. A CNN/ORC International poll shows that the Republicans would receive the bulk of the blame:

According to the poll, which was conducted Friday through Sunday, 46% say they would blame congressional Republicans for a government shutdown, with 36% saying the president would be more responsible and 13% pointing fingers at both the GOP in Congress and Obama.

Support for Congress has dropped to 10 percent. Opposition to the Tea Party has increased to a new high:

The unfavorable numbers for the tea party movement are also at an all-time high in CNN surveys.

Thirty-one percent say they see the tea party in a favorable light, while 54% hold an unfavorable view of the of the movement now in its fifth year.

A poll from Morning Consult shows that only 33 percent believe the Affordable Care Act should be delayed, repealed, or defunded as the Republicans are demanding. A margin of  66-33 believe that the 2012 election “represented a referendum on moving forward with implementation of the 2010 health care law.” Two thirds also believe the law should be given a chance to succeed (even if skeptical or ignorant of what the law contains).

These numbers don’t tell the entire story. Republican members of Congress are often from Congressional districts were voters believe the Republican line on the deficit and the Affordable Care Act and these voters are more likely to reward than vote against members of Congress who are acting against the interests of the country. Republican politicians benefit from the manner in which they promote ignorance and misunderstanding of the issues.

The numbers are also not static, with some polls showing an increase in the number of people who blame both sides. This may be a consequence portions of the media which promote such a false equivalency, either due to a false concept of objectivity or due to conservative control.

This might turn out to be a question of whether Obama can utilize the bully pulpit of the presidency more effectively than he often has in the past. We are seeing some signs of this with comments such as these:

I’m always willing to work with anyone of either party to make sure the Affordable Care Act works better, to make sure our government works better. I’m always willing to work with anyone to grow our economy faster, or to create new jobs faster, to get our fiscal house in order for the long run.

I’ve demonstrated this time and time again, oftentimes to the consternation of my own party.

But one faction, of one party, in one House of Congress, in one branch of government doesn’t get to shut down the entire government just to re-fight the results of an election. Keeping the people’s government open is not a concession to me. Keeping vital services running and hundreds of thousands of Americans on the job is not something you give to the other side…

he American people sent us here to govern. They sent us here to make sure that we’re doing everything we can to make their lives a little bit better – to create new jobs, to restore economic security, to repair the prospects of upward mobility. That’s what they expect.

And they understand that there are differences between the parties. And we’re going to be having some tough fights around those differences. And I respect the fact that the other parties are not supposed to agree with me 100 percent of the time, just like I don’t agree with them.

But they do also expect that you don’t bring the entire government to a halt or the entire economy to a halt just because of those differences.

That’s what they deserve. They’ve worked too hard for too long to recover from previous crises just to have folks here in Washington manufacture yet another one that they have to dig themselves out of.

So Congress needs to keep our government open, needs to pay our bills on time, and never, ever threaten the full faith and credit of the United States of America.

 

Classmate Who Took Nude Pictures Of Miss Teen USA Caught By FBI

Handout photo of Miss Teen USA 2013 Cassidy Wolf posing for photos at ATLANTIS, Paradise Island, Bahamas

In August I reported on a sextortion plot against Miss Teen USA. Rather than give into  extortion, with threats to release nude photos taken through her webcam,  Cassidy Wolf went on several television shows to warn people about this threat from hackers who take control of  webcams on laptops. In the previous post I noted that the FBI was investigating. The FBI has found the webcam spy, who turned out to be a classmate of the victim. Ars Technica described how he was caught and Reuters reported on her reaction.

Jesse Pinkman Explains Why We Need The Affordable Care Act

Jesse Pinkman explained the benefits of the Affordable Care Act on Saturday Night Live last night. He talked about a school teacher with a family who developed lung cancer..

Republicans Add Limiting Contraception Coverage To Their Demands

Yesterday I pointed out how the Republican battles over the budget are not really over reducing the deficit. A new terrorist-demand from the far right does show how they remain dedicated to using the power of the state to infringe upon the rights of individuals–in this case the rights of women:

House Republicans have added a measure aimed at limiting contraceptive coverage to the spending bill coming up for a vote Saturday night, a spokesman for Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kansas, told CNN.

A senior House leadership aide confirmed that development.

The so-called “conscience clause” would allow employers and insurers to opt out of preventative care for women which they find objectionable on moral or religious grounds. That prominently includes birth control, which most insurers are required to provide for free under current Obamacare rules…

Democrats say the measure is unnecessary because the administration has granted exemptions to contraceptive coverage to religious nonprofit institutions. But advocates, such as Huelskamp, insist that all institutions should be able to opt out of any preventative coverage for women that they find objectionable.

The addition of the “conscience clause” ties a heated social issue to the already sharp shutdown debate.

Not surprisingly, Tim Huelskamp is a member of the Tea Party Caucus

Once again, House Republicans who ran on a platform to increase jobs show that they are more concerned with fighting the culture wars than creating jobs–even when the result of their actions is to harm the economy and increase unemployment. This also shows that the Republicans are not serious about coming to an agreement (at least with a little time left before the last minute). They know there is no way that this measure will be accepted by either the Senate or the White House. Hopefully Democrats can use this to their advantage in pointing out the Republican opposition to birth control, which most Americans disagree with.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, nobody’s life, liberty, or property is safe while the Teabaggers are in session.

SciFi Weekend: Breaking Bad; Dexter Finale; Sleepy Hollow; The Blacklist; Agents of SHIELD; Orphan Black; How I Met Your Mother

breaking bad granite state

If the television shows I watched this week really reflected reality, many of the characters would be talking about the Breaking Bad finale, with some catching up on Netflix and the AMC marathon. Breaking Bad has done what few shows can do in increasing interest, and ratings, as it approached its finale. Breaking Bad has succeeded against its rivals the same way that Walter’s blue meth has–being superior to the competition. The show has also become as addictive as blue meth. This is primarily due to basics such as high quality acting and writing, but Breaking Bad has also been assisted by modern technology. The ability of many people to catch up at no additional cost on streaming services such as Netflix has helped increase the audience over past years. High definition big screen televisions are necessary to fully appreciate the camera work.

Things appeared to be as bad as possible for Walt and Jesse at the end of Ozymandias. Matters got even worse in Granite State. Walt lived alone in isolation in New Hampshire, unable to spend his money on anything other than supplies from Ed, along with an extra hour of his company for $10,000. Couldn’t they at least give him a pile of good novels and a radio to listen to? Ed even provided chemotherapy. I wouldn’t expect such intermittent doses with no monitoring to be the best way to treat his cancer, but Walt did appear far stronger when he returned home than on his first attempt to walk into town, even if he became so thin that his wedding ring slipped off his finger. Walt’s attempts to save his family have failed, and he hit bottom with the the total rejection from his son, who wished he was dead. This was enough to get Walt to decide to surrender, until his pride took over when he heard Gretchen and Elliot deny him credit for his work creating Gray Matter Technologies on television.

Meanwhile things were so bad for Jesse that he wished Todd and the neo-Nazis had killed him rather than keeping him alive as a slave to cook blue meth. At points Todd appeared to be less than 100 percent evil when he spared Skyler’s life and gave Jesse some Ben and Jerry’s but showed what a psychopath he really is by so coldly killing Andrea (nothing personal).

This brought us to the scenes which started both halves of Season 5. So far we have seen a couple of possible endings–Walt living happy and retired from the meth business at the start of Season 5, and more recently exposed and arrested by Hank. Now we will see a third, and final, ending. We know Walt is well-armed and has retrieved the ricin from his old home. There are many predictions as to what will happen. The overall arc of the show has been for Walt to become increasingly evil, but some signs of goodness have remained from trying to save Hank to his continued concern for his family.  Will Walt be punished for his crimes, or will he survive? Vince Gilligan left us to wonder with comments on the ending such as “I feel like this ending represents on some level, however small, something of a victory for Walter White.”

Beyond coming out of this alive, the biggest potential victory for Walt would be to find a way for his family to be cared for and Skyler to escape prosecution. Perhaps he will force Gretchen and Elliot to give his family the money from Gray Matter which he believe should have been his (although he certainly was not interested in their money back in the first season).

Presumably Walt will get his revenge over Uncle Jack and Todd. The neo-Nazis must be punished. However, as this is so predictable, either it will occur quickly and the finale will concentrate on other things, it or the outcome will include an unexpected element. How Jesse and Walt will react to each other remains a big question. Perhaps Todd’s demise will involve Lydia as opposed to Walt or Jesse. Unlike on his role of Landry on Friday Night Lights, Jesse Plemon’s character is unlikely to get the girl this time. It would come as no surprise if either winds up killing the other.

What is Walt planning to do with the ricin? Perhaps it is intended for Gretchen and Elliot. Maybe we will even see a flashback which more clearly shows what happened between them and Walt. If a flashback does show them screwing Walt out of what should have been his share of the company and a fortune, I would assume that the two wind up dead.

The ricin might also be for Lydia, should Walt want to undo what he has done and shut down the distribution of blue meth. Yet another possibility is that Walt saved it for himself to ensure that he will not wind up living in prison, after being in a situation as bad as imprisonment in New Hampshire. Maybe he will take the ricin, and then arrange a deal where he goes to prison in return for a deal not to prosecute Skyler. There are also several other characters who might knock off Walt sparing him from going to prison beyond the obvious ones, including Skyler, Marie, and perhaps even Walt, Jr. Perhaps Marie deserves the honors, considering how much she was hurt by Walt while never becoming tainted as was the case with Skyler.

At this point I suspect viewers are mixed regarding their hopes for Walt. If the evil characters are punished, this should include Walt, but the show has always been about rooting for Walt to triumph. Jesse wasn’t initially intended to survive past the first season, and now having Jesse survive would be welcomed by fans. Jesse’s survival could also provide an answer to Brock’s fate. There are lots of other characters to wonder about. Will Saul return from Nebraska? At least we know why Better Call Saul will have to be a prequel show. Did Huell ever get out of that room? Is Baby Holly fated to one day take up chemistry?

While we won’t know what happens to Walt and Jesse until Sunday night, we do know what is next for Vince Gilligan. He will be doing a crime series for CBS next season taking place in Battle Creek. I’m not sure if I’m more disappointed that he will be on network television or that it takes place in Battle Creek, but most likely Gilligan will exceed expectations for such a scenario.

Dexter Ending

While most have high hopes for a satisfactory ending to Beaking Bad, the series finale of Dexter was a disappointment–as was much of  the final season. The two problems are interconnected. A better ending would have meant a better lead up during the season. There were two possible satisfactory scenarios. Dexter could have been caught at the end and the final season could have been about Dexter desperately trying to cover his tracks while at risk of being uncovered. Alternately we could have had a big bad who eventually killed Dexter, but there was nobody this season who was big enough to provide a satisfactory conclusion in this manner. A variation of this would be Hannah being the enemy who kills Dexter, but the season did not play out in a way to make that plausible. Instead we saw a number of potential menaces pop up during the season, but none provided a compelling enough story to justify them being the one who beat Dexter.

The finale was disappointing on a couple additional levels. Having Dexter survive at all seemed implausible until we were reminded that Dexter did have a small life boat available on the Slice of Life. While the final episode did blatantly foreshadow the fact that Dexter would never see his son again and that Hannah would be raising him, they might have given a small clue that the life boat existed nearer the conclusion.

The big disappointment is that Dexter’s decision just made no sense. He has brought doom to some people around him, especially Deb, but Deb died because he changed and did not kill Saxon, not because of his dark passenger. His decision would have made more sense if Dexter’s killing someone is what had led to Deb’s death. Besides, leaving the country with Hannah and getting a fresh start would seem to be a reasonable solution, while still allowing him to be with his son. Even after having Dexter fake his death, it would have been more satisfactory if the ending was like The Dark Knight Rises and Dexter was eating with Hannah and Harrison in an outdoor café in Buenos Aires.

There were so many implausible elements in the finale beyond Dexter’s decision to lead a solitary life. He spared Saxon, leaving him to be killed by the state, and then risked everything to kill him. There was no guarantee his connections with the police would lead to those viewing the film to so easily go along with Dexter’s story. I predicted that Saxon would cut off the guy’s tongue after he said he knew he would not speak, but how did Saxon avoid getting covered in blood? A hospital might be in chaos during an evacuation, but not likely to the point where Dexter could turn off Deb’s life support and carry her out of the hospital. Is it really wise to trust that Hannah will give up killing forever and make a good mother for Harrison?

Scott Buck defended his idea for the finale in this interview with The Hollywood Reporter. Clyde Phillips, show runner in earlier seasons, had a better idea as to how the show should end:

“In the very last scene of the series,” Philips explained, “Dexter wakes up. And everybody is going to think, ‘Oh, it was a dream.’ And then the camera pulls back and back and back and then we realize, ‘No, it’s not a dream.’ Dexter’s opening his eyes and he’s on the execution table at the Florida Penitentiary. They’re just starting to administer the drugs and he looks out through the window to the observation gallery.”

And in the gallery are all the people that Dexter killed—including the Trinity Killer and the Ice Truck Killer (his brother Rudy), LaGuerta who he was responsible killing, Doakes who he’s arguably responsible for, Rita, who he’s arguably responsible for, Lila. All the big deaths, and also whoever the weekly episodic kills were. They are all there.

“That’s what I envisioned for the ending of Dexter. That everything we’ve seen over the past eight seasons has happened in the several seconds from the time they start Dexter’s execution to the time they finish the execution and he dies.  Literally, his life flashed before his eyes as he was about to die. I think it would have been a great, epic, very satisfying conclusion.”

Phillips further explained that his idea for the ending was inspired by An Occurence at Owl Creek Bridge, the 1890 story by Ambrose Pierce about a Confederate soldier that is famous for its time-altering, plot-twisting ending. When the soldier is hanged, the rope breaks, he falls into the river, swims to shore, runs toward his family, see his wife and children and right before they are reunited, the rope catches and he dies. It turns out that the entire story takes place in the two to three seconds between the soldier’s initial drop and his neck snapping.

As SciFi Weekend is supposed to be about science fiction (even though I frequently cover other show) it is time I returned to science fiction in the video above. It is an animated version of Badger’s idea for an episode of Star Trek as presented at the start of the second half of the final season of Breaking Bad. The humor as well as the drama of Breaking Bad will be missed.

I will wait a while longer to come to any conclusions about the new season. Sleepy Hollow showed promise in the first episode, but after the second I’m not sure that I really want to devote an hour a week to it. One thing which might keep me interested is that John Noble will have a recurring role. Nicole Beharie answered questions about the show here.

So far The Blacklist looks like the best new show, with all the twists providing a perfect vehicle for the talents of James Spader. The show does remind me in some ways of Hannibal. A key difference is that with Hannibal we know the broad outline of where the show is going. We were left with lots of questions on The Blacklist.

SHIELD premiere

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. has a recurring mystery of its own regarding what really happened to Agent Coulson. In some ways it is a light, Disneyized version of Torchwood. Torchwood, in the early seasons, dealt with a team working in a universe where people knew about the Doctor and experienced alien invasions, while Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. has a team working after the events of The Avengers. Both introduced their agents by recruiting from the outside–Gwen on Torchwood and Sky on SHIELD. Both pilots even used a sci-fi serum at a pivotal point but in far different ways–Retcon to cause amnesia on Torchwood and a truth serum on SHIELD.

I do have one nitpick about the pilot for SHIELD. (Two if I mention how obnoxious Fitz is). I realize that we must accept a lot of implausible things related to fictitious science and superheroes. There are things which none of this should change from our reality. I have been in many hospitals and have never seen one with big open windows in patient rooms which would allow someone with superpowers to leap out and jump to the ground.

orphan-black-season-2-production-bbc-america

Orphan Black has started filming for the second season, with Sarah once again trying to get reunited with her daughter.

Lilly met the mother on  How I Met Your Mother and we got a scene from a year later showing her with Ted. She does look like the right woman for Ted to wind up with, and now that it has started I think that a season long wedding will work out fine.

Republican Threats To Shut Down Government Have Nothing To Do With Reducing The Deficit

Perhaps the Republicans will back down from harming the economy in the dangerous game of chicken they are playing, but for now John Boehner appears powerless to stop the extremists who effectively control the Republican Party. They still continue to push for a delay to Obamacare before they will agree to avoid a government shutdown. An example of why their demands really have nothing to do with fiscal responsibility can be seen in their demand to end the tax on medical devices.

The Affordable Care Act, in contrast to big spending measures which came from Republicans when George Bush was in the White House, was written with means to pay for the new costs it will generate. This includes a 2.3% tax on medical devices. The short-sighted medical device industry denies that having more people covered will lead to increased sales and  higher profits. They have been lobbying heavily to have the tax repealed. The Republicans have two choices. They can take up the cause of a business interest, or they can support fiscal responsibility and support this means of paying for the Affordable Care Act. There shouldn’t have been any doubt on where they would fall on that question.

The Republicans have no real interest in fiscal responsibility or reducing the deficit. As usual, Republican policies are purely centered on reducing taxes for their supporters.

Barack Obama has made some excellent responses to the GOP’s terrorist tactics:

“I’m not going to start setting a precedent, not just for me, but for future presidents, where one chamber in Congress can basically say each time there needs to be a vote to make sure Treasury pays its bills, we’re not going to sign it unless our particular hobby horse gets advanced.

Imagine if you had a Republican president and a Democratic speaker, and the Democratic speaker said, well, we’re not going to pass the debt ceiling unless we raise corporate taxes by 40 percent or unless we pass background checks on guns or whatever other list of agenda items Democrats were interested in. Does anybody actually think that we would be hearing from Republicans that that was acceptable behavior? That’s not how our constitutional system is designed. We are not going to do it.” (source)

“Paying America’s bills is not a concession to me. That’s not doing me a favor.” (source)

Quick Guide To The New Climate Report: Five Minutes Before Midnight

The Atlantic gave a quick summary of the climate report with a post on What Leading Scientists Want You to Know About Today’s Frightening Climate Report. For those who don’t want to read even this much, here are the key points:

The polar icecaps are melting faster than we thought they would; seas are rising faster than we thought they would; extreme weather events are increasing. Have a nice day! That’s a less than scientifically rigorous summary of the findings of the Fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released this morning in Stockholm.

Appearing exhausted after a nearly two sleepless days fine-tuning the language of the report, co-chair Thomas Stocker called climate change “the greatest challenge of our time,” adding that “each of the last three decades has been successively warmer than the past,” and that this trend is likely to continue into the foreseeable future.

Pledging further action to cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said, “This isn’t a run of the mill report to be dumped in a filing cabinet. This isn’t a political document produced by politicians… It’s science.”

When I asked him for his headline, Michael Mann, the Director of the Earth Systems Science Center at Penn State (a former IPCC author himself) suggested: “Jury In: Climate Change Real, Caused by Us, and a Threat We Must Deal With.”

It is now 95 percent likely that human spewed heat-trapping gases — rather than natural variability — are the main cause of climate change, according to today’s report. In 2007 the IPCC’s confidence level was 90 percent, and in 2001 it was 66 percent, and just over 50 percent in 1995.

What’s more, things are getting worse more quickly than almost anyone thought would happen a few years back.

“If you look at the early IPCC predictions back from 1990 and what has taken place since, climate change is proceeding faster than we expected,” Mann told me by email. Mann helped develop the famous hockey-stick graph, which Al Gore used in his film “An Inconvenient Truth” to dramatize the sharp rise in temperatures in recent times.

Mann cites the decline of Arctic sea ice to explain : “Given the current trajectory, we’re on track for ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic in a matter of a decade or two… There is a similar story with the continental ice sheets, which are losing ice — and contributing to sea level rise — at a faster rate than the [earlier IPCC] models had predicted.”

But there is a lot that we still don’t understand. Reuters noted in a sneak preview of IPCC draft which was leaked in August that, while the broad global trends are clear, climate scientists were “finding it harder than expected to predict the impact in specific regions in coming decades.”

There are some possibilities that are deliberately left out of the IPCC projections, because we simply don’t have enough data yet to model them. Jason Box, a visiting scholar at the Byrd Polar Research Center told me in an email interview that: “The scary elephant in the closet is terrestrial and oceanic methane release triggered by warming.” The IPCC projections don’t include the possibility — some scientists say likelihood — that huge quantities of methane (a greenhouse gas thirty times as potent as CO2) will eventually be released from thawing permafrost and undersea methane hydrate reserves. Box said that the threshhold “when humans lose control of potential management of the problem, may be sooner than expected.”

Box, whose work has been instrumental in documenting the rapid deterioration of the Greenland ice sheet, also believes that the latest IPCC predictions (of a maximum just under three foot ocean rise by the end of the century) may turn out to be wildly optimistic, if the Greenland ice sheet breaks up. “We are heading into uncharted territory” he said. “We are creating a different climate than the Earth has ever seen.”

The head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, speaks for the scientific consensus when he says that time is fast running out to avoid the catastrophic collapse of the natural systems on which human life depends. What he recently told a group of climate scientist could be the most chilling headline of all for the U.N. report:

“We have five minutes before midnight.”

Andrew Sullivan has further reactions to the report.

Jon Stewart On Vatican No Longer Promoting Republican Agenda

For a long time it felt like the Republican Party and the Vatican represented a type of axis of evil, both pushing to impose antiquated religious teachings on everyone else. Pope Francis has taken a step back from the dark side in recent interviews, saying the Church should not be “obsessed” with abortion, gay marriage, and contraception. As Jon Stewart points out in the video above, the Pope is no longer on the same page as Republicans, who are obsessed with abortion, gay marriage, and contraception. Will Republicans change? More likely they will follow the lead of Bill O’Reilly in promoting their own alternate religious history to match their alternate history of the United States while promoting their own view of the Constitution.

It would be great if Republicans would take the lead of Pope Francis here. At very least, assuming they do not change their views, could everyone try to stop letting them get away with claiming to support small government and liberty?

Scary High Number Of People Support Tea Party

The headline at Gallup is Tea Party Support Dwindles to Near-Record Low. I don’t think that’s the real story. First, here is what Gallup reports:

Americans' tea Party affiliation

In November 2010, days after the Republicans recaptured the majority in the House of Representatives, 32% of Americans pledged support for the Tea Party, or 10 percentage points higher than in the latest survey, conducted Sept. 5-8.

Opponents of the Tea Party now outnumber supporters 27% to 22%, which is similar to their edge in 2012. However this differs from most of Gallup’s earlier measurements, in 2010 and 2011, when supporters and opponents were either equally matched, or Tea Party backers had the slight edge.

Fully half of Americans, 51%, currently say they are neither a supporter nor an opponent of the Tea Party, or they have no opinion about it.

Strong Tea Party Opponents Outnumber Strong Supporters

In addition to their overall advantage in numbers, opponents of the Tea Party also lead supporters in intensity. The majority of Tea Party opponents call themselves strong opponents, while supporters are evenly divided as strong and not strong supporters. The net result is that 17% of Americans consider themselves strong opponents of the Tea Party, contrasted with 11% who are strong supporters, similar to the balance seen in 2011.

Yes, it is good that the number of supporters is on a downward trend. It is still scary that over one-fifth of the country supports a group which opposes the basic tenets of self-government which this country was founded on with their hysterical hatred of government (especially when there is a black president) and unquestioning support for plutocrats like the Koch brothers. Americans should know better, and far fewer should support the Tea Party insanity. Having half the country not taking a position isn’t reassuring either.

The last time we faced a vote on the debt ceiling (which allows the United States to pay its bills, not increase spending), the Tea Party created a show-down which led to a downgrading of the credit rating of the United States and slowed economic recovery.

Now that we face a comparable crisis, we need far more than twenty-seven percent opposing this extremist and dangerous group.

Obamacare Bringing Lower Than Expected Insurance Costs

The right wing blogs and publications continue to spread scare stories such as that insurance costs will rise under the Affordable Care Act, often using funny math and outright lies. The Affordable Care Act has already cut costs for many people with measures such as requiring coverage of routine preventative studies to covering young adults up to age twenty-six on their parents’ policies.  The most important savings is that insurance coverage cannot be lost–a problem which has been a widespread cause of bankruptcy in t his country. As we are now getting more data, we are finding that insurance coverage which will soon be offered on the exchanges will cost less than many predicted based upon information released in a report from the Health and Human Services Department.

According to the new report, the average premium nationally for the second-lowest cost “silver” plan will be $328 a month before tax credits — 16 percent below projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. As many as 95 percent of the uninsured who are potentially eligible to use the exchanges live in states with average premiums below the CBO projections.

The options available to consumers will vary significantly depending on their health care market. In Wyoming, for example, the average lowest-cost bronze plan is $425, while it is $144 in Minnesota. In Jackson, Miss., after receiving tax credits, a 27-year-old could potentially pay as little as $8 a month for a bronze plan.

In the federally-run exchanges, states with the lowest average premium tend to have a higher average number of issuers offering qualified health plans, according to HHS. Those 36 states have an average of eight different health insurers participating in the exchange system. About one in four of these insurance companies are offering health plans on the individual market for the first time ever, signaling that insurers are eager to compete for the new business, Gary Cohen of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services told reporters Tuesday.

Cohen said consumers will have a “good and very transparent shopping experience” on the exchanges, contending the range of options shouldn’t be too confusing.

“We have requirements that there be a meaningful difference between plans available,” he said. “Consumers will be able to make side by side comparisons… they’ll be able to select the characteristics of the plan they want to see.”

The exchanges will offer a choice of platinum, gold, silver, and bronze plans which vary based upon coverage and out-of-pocket expenses. Those with chronic diseases which require frequent health care expenditures might be better off with the more expensive plans. For others it will be a choice based upon affordability and how much risk they want to take with higher deductibles or copays.

Cost should not be the only consideration in choosing a plan. There is valid concern as to which doctors will be included in each plan, as insurance plans might be motivated to limit choice in the hopes of keeping costs down. Current laws rules require all plans on the exchanges to offer a sufficient number and a variety of physicians in their networks. It will be necessary for those who are concerned about keeping their own doctor to investigate this before signing up for a plan–considering both their preferred primary care physicians and the specialists they want access to.

I suspect that in many areas there will continue to be nearly as large a choice for consumers as they have now (which does mean potential limitations, as are currently experienced). Physicians have joined together into networks to jointly negotiate with health care plans. The network I practice in includes virtually every physician in town making it hard for insurance companies to limit choice. Another concern is how the plans created for the exchanges wind up paying physicians. If they attempt to pay poorly to keep costs down, it is possible that many physicians will decide not to accept the plan.

Location will also play a part in how much the premiums are for a variety of reasons, including actions by some Republican controlled state governments to attempt to sabotage the Affordable Care Act and taking actions which lead to higher costs.

Steve Schmidt is Right About GOP & Sarah Palin Is Wrong–ObamaCare Is The Opposite Of Socialized Medicine

Needless to say, Sarah Palin supports Ted Cruz’s nonsense attack on Obamacare. Meanwhile Steve Schmidt says he has “deep regret” for helping to create a “freak show” wing of the Republican Party for sicking Sarah Palin on the nation. Schmidt got it right:

“For the last couple of years, we’ve had this wing of the party running roughshod over the rest of the party. Tossing out terms like RINO, saying we’re going to purge, you know, the moderates out of the party,” Schmidt said. “We’ve lost five U.S. Senate seats over the last two election cycles. And fundamentally we need Republicans, whether they’re running for president, whether they’re in the leadership of the Congress, to stand up against a lot of this asininity.”

Sarah Palin’s ridiculous response:

“What Sen. Cruz is doing is waving [the U.S. flag] and he is saying, ‘Hey, what is the alternative here in fighting for our economic liberty in the United States of America?’” Palin said on “Your World” on Fox News. “What his colleagues, too many of them are doing, they’re waving [the white flag] and they’re saying, ‘Oh, let’s surrender until we win.’ That is their tactic? This is nonsense. More power to Sen. Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, others who are standing up for what they campaigned upon, and that was to do whatever they can do, seize whatever tool that they have, in this case the tools are in the legislative branch, the purse strings, getting rid of the socialized health-care coverage policy of Barack Obama.”

Besides the fact that the effort is futile, and shutting down the government over this fight will probably harm the Republicans, she has her facts wrong about the Affordable Care Act. It is not socialized health-care coverage. Obamacare is the opposite of socialism. The Affordable Care Act promotes private health care coverage. In much of the country their is no market for health care coverage because one insurance company dominates the market. The Affordable Care Act creates a true market where consumers have a choice of competing health insurance companies.

The risk of socialized medicine comes from opposing ObamaCare. If recent trends had been allowed to continue, the individual market would have collapsed and a government-run program would have become far more likely to be developed as the only remaining way to provide health care coverage.

Latest Scare Story On Obamacare Uses Funny Math, A Deceptive Headline, And Misquotation Of Obama

Forbes is spreading a story using very bizarre math claiming that “Obamacare Will Increase Health Spending By $7,450 For A Typical Family of Four.” The authored played around with numbers, taking a projection as to the increase in health care spending and then pretending in the headline that this will be divided up into the average family’s health care premiums. Beware when people cite averages. After all, statistically the average human has one breast and one testicle. The article later makes lower claims about the premium increases, but fails to provide justification for the more modest predictions.

Think Progress debunked this funny math, concentrating on the fact that those who receive health care coverage through their employers are not going to pay more due to the Affordable Care Act. In addition, those who obtain health care through the exchanges are likely to be able to obtain health care coverage at a lower price than is now possible on the individual market (unless you live in a red state where the state government is working to sabotage the new exchanges and increase costs). Those currently who are unable to obtain coverage, often due to having a pre-existing condition, will be paying more than they are now. Some people with crappy insurance which doesn’t actually cover much will also be paying more for better coverage. This is far different than what is suggested in the headline, as if the increase in health care spending will be paid by the average family of four. Overall health care spending will go up, but that is note really relevant to the average family.

Chris Conovor, the author of the Forbes article, responded by saying that a campaign promise from Obama did not come about: “I will sign a universal health care bill into law by the end of my first term as president that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family’s premium by up to $2,500 a year.”

While the Affordable Care Act will not cut the cost of a typical family’s premium by $2,500 a year, this is not at all relevant to the arguments contrary to his wild claims. If Obama’s prediction as to savings was too high, this does not justify Conovor inventing a fiction about increased spending for a typical family of four.

Also note that Conovor misquoted Obama in his article, when he said Obama promised the “typical family will see their premiums go down by $2500 (per year!!!!)” Obama actually said “up to 2,5000 a year” not making a definite promise that savings would be this great. Savings will be less, but also keep in mind that it was the Republicans who opposed measures which would have increased the potential savings under the Affordable Care Act, such as the public option.

Update: Middle Class Political Economist shows further errors in the right wing claims.

SciFi Weekend: Under the Dome Finale; Atlantis; Agent Carter; Breaking Bad; AMC Spin Offs; Downton Abbey Premiere; Orphan Black; Revolution and Blacklist

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The season finale of Under The Dome has been widely criticized by reviewers. We were promised some answers about the dome but instead we got what felt like a bunch of random scenes. After more meaningless butterfly scenes, the big revelation was that Julia is the Monarch, not that we know what that really means. The beings behind the dome spoke in the body of Norrie’s dead mother and declared that the intention was to protect them and apparently we are to believe they are good because they say they are. (They really are intended to be protecting the humans per this interview with executive producer Brian K. Vaughan).  There is no indication of what the dome is protecting Chester’s Mill from, and they show a funny way of providing protection when the dome turns black. Of course we don’t have to worry for long because somehow Julia was right in deciding that the way to protect the egg was to dump it at the bottom of the lake, leading to pink stars rising and the dome turning white. There was no explanation as to why the beings behind the dome even require a human to protect the egg.

The interview noted above tells more about the plans for the series but beware that it also spoils aspects of the book if you intend to read it between seasons. That is pleural seasons. There was a limit to how satisfying any revelations about the dome might be with a plan is to continue the series for several years. This would probably work much better as a single season show with a clear ending, but that is not how network television operates. Regardless, the writers knew there would be a break for the season and might have come up with something more sensible.

Ultimately the dome is just a mechanism to drive the conflict between the various human characters. We might have forgiven holes in the mythology if it actually drove good stories, as with Lost and Fringe. I already discussed many of the flaws in the story here. The cliff hanger hardly provides any suspense, knowing that they will not kill off Barbie as they have killed off less important characters. Potentially better writing might have made the plot line more  believable. Stephen King will be writing the second season premiere. Hopefully he can get the story back on track, and the show’s regular writers can carry on from there.

Atlantis

With Merlin finishing its run last year, The BBC is starting Atlantis, which reimagines Greek mythology.

The action packed series brings to life the vast store of Greek myths and legends re-imagined for a new generation.

From the creators of the hit show Merlin and the creator of BAFTA award-winning series Misfits comes a thrilling new thirteen part adventure series: ATLANTIS.

When Jason sets out to find his father, he could never have anticipated where his journey would lead…

Far from home and desperate for answers, Jason washes up on the shores of an ancient land. A mysterious place; a world of bull leaping, of snake haired Goddesses and palaces so vast it was said they were built by giants – this is the city of Atlantis.

But under the surface of this enticing place is a dark and simmering past, a complicated web of treachery and deceit, with which Jason himself seems inexplicably bound. He soon finds himself embroiled in a perilous game of politics and power from which there is no escape.

Aided by the studious young Pythagoras and the overweight, overbearing Hercules, Jason embarks on a voyage of discovery and salvation which sees him brush shoulders with Medusa, come face to face with the Minotaur and even do battle with the dead.

As the series’ progress, this unlikely but engaging trio will take us on a journey through the vast store of Greek myths and legends, which provide the bedrock of western literature. A treasure trove of extraordinary tales re-imagined in a thrilling and unexpected way for a new generation.

Atlantis was created by Julian Murphy (Merlin, Hex, Sugar Rush), Johnny Capps (Merlin, Hex, Sugar Rush) and BAFTA award winning Howard Overman (Merlin, Misfits, Dirk Gently). BBC Executive producer is Bethan Jones.

Starring Mark Addy, Jack Donnelly, Robert Emms, Sarah Parish, Juliet Stevenson, Jemima Rooper and Aiysha Hart.

Den of Geek has a spoiler-free review of the first episode.

Agent Carter

The Flash is being introduced as a potential DC Comics television spin off of Arrow, and Marvel isn’t far behind. Although the first episode of Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. doesn’t air for a couple more days, a second Marvel television series is under consideration. The second one is on the career of Agent Carter after her boyfriend Steve Rogers (Captain America) gets frozen in ice.

AMC is especially interested in spin off shows with two their major shows concluding soon. With Breaking Bad ending next week, they are developing a spin off, Better Call Saul. There had been talk for a while of a Mad Man spin off, potentially based upon the California office opened last season, but this plan is off. AMC will at least drag out Mad Men for another year, dividing the final season into two seven episode parts. At least they might extend it to eight as Breaking Bad has done. AMC is also working on a companion series to Walking Dead based upon another group in the same universe.

I do wish they weren’t airing the Emmy Awards opposite the final episode of Dexter and the penultimate episode of Breaking Bad. That was quite an episode last week as Walt lost virtually everything, including his family, Jesse, most of his money, and even his identity. We knew since the start of the fifth season that he would ultimately return with a new identity and lots of weapons (including returning home to retrieve the ricin).

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Presumably the major remaining business for Walt is go go after the neo-Nazi’s and possibly save Jesse in the process. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hasn’t found that Jesse is being forced to cook for the neo-Nazis. Perhaps while hiding out in New Hampshire he finds out about pure blue Meth still being produced and realizes that only Jesse could be cooking it. There remain many other questions such as what becomes of his home and family and whether Skylar will follow Walt if he survives in light of how he acted to protect her in that phone conversation. Last week we also saw that there was still some good in Walt as he tried to save Hank along with Skylar. On the other hand, he also turned Jesse over to the neo-Nazis and unnecessarily told Jesse about watching Jane die. Of course if Walt thought more, he wouldn’t have fallen for the fake pictures of the money, and previously wouldn’t have left that Walt Whitman book sitting around where Hank could find it. Considering the nature of the relationship between Walt and Jesse, it wouldn’t surprise me if either the two join together against the neo-Nazis or if one kills the other. I’m also sure we haven’t seen the last of Lydia, and Saul might have some role in how this all ends. Finally, is Huell still sitting in that room, afraid to answer the phone?

Michelle Dockery

Besides Dexter, Breaking Bad, and the Emmy Awards, tonight also marked the season premiere of Downton Abbey. Michelle Dockery (Lady Mary) didn’t look as good on the show as she did in this photo shoot to commemorate the fourth season premiere. I’ll avoid any real spoilers. It should come as no surprised that Lady Mary starts out the episode quite depressed in an era where Prozac has not yet been invented. Very early in the episode viewers also learned about the first major crisis of the season as a servant left without giving notice. At least two of the characters were quite unlikeable.

Orphan  Black recently started on BBC Three. Digital Spy asks if it lives up the hype. After seeing the full first season, the answer is yes.

Trailer for the second season of Revolution above.

With James Spader staring, Blacklist is high on the list of new shows to try.