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Jan
23

Vince Cable should look past executive pay to the wages of the workforce | Duncan Exley

BERJAYA

As well as rewarding executives for poor performance, unfair pay has adverse impacts on the wider economy and on taxpayers

Vince Cable's policy announcement on tackling the soaring levels of executive pay is unlikely to put an end to the controversy. The business secretary's proposals place a lot of faith in the ability and willingness of investors to rein in excess. There will be no shortage of commentators pointing out that investors, some of whom are very well paid themselves, have neither the motivation, nor the form, to justify such faith.

So, it might appear odd to suggest that to reduce excessive income inequality and improve company performance we should be paying less attention to executive pay.

Although it is true that top pay has risen out of all proportion to either company performance or employees' pay, it is also true that focusing on the few people in the boardroom has led to us neglecting the fact that organisations also have other employees, whose pay and performance might also be important.

The way that executive pay is spoken about strongly suggests that the majority of the workforce are not really being considered. Many policymakers have expressed a desire to link executive pay to company performance, but suggest that company performance is entirely dependent on the actions of a handful of superhumans and that everyone else is more or less irrelevant. It is also telling that the government-commissioned Hutton review of fair pay in the public sector was actually a review of top pay in the public sector.

This compulsive focus on boardroom pay should concern those with an interest in the UK's unusually high levels of income inequality, because although top incomes have rocketed away from median incomes, there has been much less outrage about the stagnation of pay for the majority of the working population.

Paying insufficient attention to the wider workforce is likely to neither improve most people's living standards nor improve company performance. Despite the obsession with linking executive pay to performance, studies suggest that incentives tend to be counterproductive for directors, but effective for unskilled staff. Other studies show that productivity tends to be lower in organisations where pay gaps are wider, and that – unsurprisingly – people who think their pay is unfairly low tend to have reduced motivation.

However, unfair pay in the wider workforce also has adverse impacts on the wider economy and on all taxpayers. This is not only because of the obvious effect of low pay on suppressing spending, but also because levels of debt tend to be higher where pay gaps are wider. At the bottom end of the pay scale, there is a direct cost to taxpayers. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that pay below the living wage costs taxpayers £6bn a year in benefits and forgone revenue. The real cost is likely to be much higher, if we consider that 57% of children in poverty have at least one working parent and that child poverty costs us £25bn a year, to say nothing of the wider social costs of poverty and inequality.

Not only does excessive pay at the top lead us to neglect other employees' pay, but also directors' incentives may lead to suppressed pay further down. If directors' incentives are linked to company profits, then it may be tempting to increase profits by suppressing costs – such as wages – rather than the harder task of increasing revenues.

The egalitarian, financial and performance arguments for giving proper regard to the pay, performance and productivity of staff beyond the boardroom are strong ones. However, those who have most influence over organisations' pay – in the company, the City, Westminster and Whitehall – tend to interact with directors disproportionately (relative to their interactions with other employees) and therefore tend to think about directors disproportionately. This suggests that we need to have structural solutions designed to build a whole-company perspective into how companies operate and what they report on. This is why it is sensible to require companies to include employees on remuneration committees and to report on pay ratios and any policy on low pay. Unfortunately, Cable seems to have been persuaded away from rigorous action in those areas.

For all of our sakes, we need to remember that there are more people in a company than there are in a boardroom.

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Executive pay and bonusesPayEconomic policyEconomicsPovertyVince CableDuncan Exleyguardian.co.uk

Jan
23

Trust is in short supply – if we want our economy to grow, we need it | Veronica Hope-Hailey

BERJAYA

Trust in the workplace is key in a strong society, but it's slipping away thanks to the financial crisis. How do we get it back?

In times of uncertainty, trust becomes more important. The Edelman Trust Barometer has reported some depressing results: the global financial crisis and the demise of high-profile banks, and the government rescue plans that followed, have profoundly destabilised public confidence, resulting in a breakdown in trust in government and business.

The UK public's cynicism has been stoked by the MPs' expenses scandal, high-profile organisational failures (such as the BP disaster in the US), the unveiling of News International's phone-hacking practices, the 2011 summer riots and the ongoing eurozone crisis. Cuts to national and local public services have been reported alongside the reinstatement of high bankers' bonuses in the very institutions taxpayers so recently bailed out – a decision perceived as incomprehensible to those experiencing a reduced standard of living.

Does it really matter for society whether trust is up or down like the weather? Surely some of the decisions made in the banks that led to the crisis were a result of people trusting leaders too much? Is trusting your work colleagues essential, or simply a "nice to have"?

The answer is yes, trust does matter; we rely on certain levels of trust to function and prosper. Ask any UN peacekeeper and they will tell you that a society whose citizens lose the capacity to trust one another will become dysfunctional. Trust is critical for building the foundations of social order; it is the basis for civil society.

In the workplace, one distinct advantage of trust is its link to innovation. Some economic commentators argue that for UK plc to return to growth and restore job opportunities, innovative approaches will be key. No one is going to take a risk unless they know that they will be backed by their immediate and senior managers. For small- to medium-sized enterprises, innovation will fuel growth, and that has to be good for our economy. In the public sector, managers will have to rethink the way they deliver services – we need people to spend time reinventing forms of delivery, not simply hacking away at the size or volume of existing practices.

Another distinct benefit is that "high trust" workplaces find it much easier to embrace organisational change – they can change faster and will achieve better levels of employee engagement at all levels. At times of high uncertainty, having a boss or CEO that they really trust can encourage employees to take the plunge and try something different. Furthermore, we know that trust encourages successful co-operation and teamwork, promotes and facilitates partnerships and joint ventures and decreases operating and transaction costs (managers can spend less time monitoring staff).

A focus on trust does mean concern for a company's moral and ethical principles. Perceptions of trustworthiness include the organisation's competence and predictability, but also relate to two ethical dimensions. One is the integrity of the organisation – the degree to which it and its managers adhere to general moral standards. Another is benevolence, which emphasises the positive intent towards those who are trusting in them. Research both conceptually and empirically illustrates that employees prefer to trust organisations that uphold moral and ethical standards.

In autumn 2011, as part of an in-depth case study research, my team and I surveyed 2,000 people at 14 private- and public-sector organisations. While trust remains a serious problem for many workplaces, there is good news. Some of the organisations researched not only managed to maintain trust during adverse times, but in some cases actually enhanced trust relations despite downsizing and restructuring – and this was observed within the public as well as the private sector.

In many cases, it came down to senior managers taking some bold but moral decisions about how to manage change while elevating the importance of maintaining the trust of their workplace. For some organisations this paid dividends at a business level, in their community and in their workplace.

Financial crisisEconomicsBankingFinancial sectorVeronica Hope-Haileyguardian.co.uk

Jan
23

IMF urges Europe to build bigger firewall around Italy and Spain

BERJAYA

Christine Lagarde calls on Brussels to drop opposition to bigger fund as Greece and its creditors remain at loggerheads

EU leaders came under pressure from the International Monetary Fund on Monday to bolster the protective firewall around Italy and Spain, as talks between Greece and its creditors remained in deadlock for a third week.

IMF director general Christine Lagarde told Brussels to drop its opposition to a bigger insurance fund, with a view to convincing world money markets that Europe has the firepower to protect vulnerable nations.

The former French finance minister pointedly gave her warning in Berlin where Angela Merkel's conservative CDU-led government has organised opposition to providing bigger loans for the EU's bailout fund.

Lagarde's speech came as a senior Greek official warned the eurozone would "dissolve" if Greece was forced out of the euro after being offered what he described as non-negotiable but unaffordable rates of interest with its creditors.

Gikas Hardouvelis, who heads the economics team advising prime minister Lucas Papademos, said the EU would be abdicating its responsibility if it allowed banks, insurers and hedge funds to offset a 50% writedown of the country's debts by charging interest rates of around 4%.

He said that enforcing such rates would be the same as kicking Greece out the euro, in a speech that added to the tension in Brussels.

The gloom surrounding Greece's chances of charting a route to sustainable debt levels overshadowed attempts to agree the details of the permanent euro bailout fund and its complement, a "fiscal compact" intended to entrench German-style fiscal rigour across the eurozone.

With Athens and its private creditors at loggerheads over the scale and terms of the losses to be borne by Greece's lenders, the finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, briefed the eurozone's finance ministers in Brussels on the chances of making a breakthrough in time for the latest EU summit on the euro crisis next Monday.

In return for writing off €100bn (£84bn) of Greek debt, however, Athens' private creditors are demanding a higher interest rate on their loans than the eurozone would like.

On Sunday, Charles Dallara, who is leading the negotiations for Greece's private creditors, said Athens would need to default on its debt mountain if it could not accept the outlines of the deal taking shape.

The scale of the "haircuts" being mooted would not bring Greek debt down to sustainable levels – the aim of the exercise – and the deadlock is holding up final agreement on the second eurozone and IMF €130bn bailout of Greece. The rescue plan has to be in operation by March to prevent a Greek sovereign default.

Brinkmanship on all sides of a complex negotiation looked certain to continue at least until next week.

"It is important that the interest rates are low so that Greece can reduce its debt mountain," said Austria's finance minister, Maria Fekter. "We know that the banks are not overly happy, but a crash is far more expensive."

While the bond-holders' losses are to be "voluntary" to prevent Greece being declared in formal default, other eurozone figures said the banks could be forced to take the haircuts.

"Our goal is a sustainable debt. It has our preference if it's voluntary, but it's not a precondition for us," said the Dutch finance minister, Jan Kees de Jager.

Tonight's eurogroup meeting in Brussels, the first this year, focused on the Greek impasse and was then to be followed by all 27 EU finance ministers wrangling over the fine print of the new treaty on a "fiscal compact" – stiffer rules for the euro and for non-euro countries who want to join – and of the permanent €500bn bailout fund being launched later this year. The compact is to be an international treaty between governments signing up to it rather than European law, because David Cameron vetoed that option in December.

Government leaders are to agree the new treaty underpinning the euro and the permanent fund – the European Stability Mechanism – at next Monday's summit.

Germany is pushing the new euro rulebook against resistance elsewhere. Although the new rules will have minimal quick impact on the euro crisis, Berlin is making agreement on them conditional on its green light for the bailout fund.

With the intense politicking over the fate of the euro resuming following the new year lull, conflicting signals promptly re-emerged.

In a speech in Berlin, Lagarde, called for the ESM's resources to be expanded beyond €500bn and demanded a form of eurobond or common liability for eurozone debt.

Both demands are supported by Italy's new prime minister, Mario Monti, who has swiftly emerged as a possible gamechanger in the euro crisis due to the confidence he commands among eurozone policymakers, the credibility of his attempts to lift Italy out of the quagmire and, crucially, because he is using his clout to challenge Germany's policies on the crisis, the first such eurozone national leader to do so effectively.

Nonetheless, Lagarde's demands were promptly dismissed by the German government. Berlin does not rule out eurobonds eventually becoming part of the eurozone's new financial architecture, but will not countenance them as a quick fix to the immediate crisis.

Eurozone crisisIMFEuropean UnionEconomicsEuroEuropeGreeceChristine LagardeIan Traynorguardian.co.uk

Jan
23

Vote of no confidence has crushed Britain’s economic recovery

BERJAYA

Fourth-quarter GDP figures will show that Britain is in a Japanese-style depression lasting well beyond the usual cycle of a recession

Much of the UK's plan for recovery from the financial crisis was based on a full-throttle recovery in 2012. This was going to be the year that a return of consumer confidence, business investment and general spending would converge to send the economy on a trajectory of above-average growth. Maybe we would even get back some of the output we lost in the crash.

Instead, GDP figures on Wednesday covering fourth-quarter growth will show that the long depression continues.

Maybe the Office for National Statistics will provide some solace for the Treasury with a small increase. More likely, there will be a contraction that reveals that a shallow recession gripped the country during the winter months.

Whichever, the overarching description will be of a Japanese-style depression that lasts well beyond the usual cycle of a recession. The Resolution Foundation report published on Monday, arguing that incomes will remain stuck in neutral for the next 10 years, plays to the same theme.

Business investment has already slumped and confidence indexes show few consumers are ready to spend outside key periods such as Christmas. Technically, these measures could bounce back quickly, but they are likely to remain subdued, at best. More likely, consumers and businesses will sit on their hands.

And the lack of investment will perplex ministers. They have done what the right-wing economists told them to do and moved out of the way – the theory being that public sector spending and investment was "crowding out" the private sector.

Over the next year we will see the deep flaw in this theory. The private sector despises risk. And the solution for many businesses looking for a risk-free bonanza is an asset price crash.

It is the time-honoured solution to every asset bubble recession. Construction and financial services are the usual engines of growth out of recession and they rely on buying cheap assets and milking them for short-term gain. What they lose from their balance sheets they more than make up in the resulting boom through extra profits.

That model is broken, at least for the moment. Without the Bank of England's quantitative easing, the property developers and the banks would all be bust. QE saved them.

The flipside of saving their bacon is that asset prices are also maintained. There is an absence of easy money to be made buying cheap homes or businesses and selling for a quick buck. Talk to the prime purveyors of this "vulture" capitalism – the private equity buccaneers. They have gone back to the dull business of running firms. They live in hope of the old financial engineering opportunities returning, but if they do, it won't be for a while.

Private industry, far from taking (non-) risks with investments in cheap assets, is busy paying down its debts. Analysts talk about the prevalence of companies with "fortress balance sheets" that can withstand any event, any risk. Their conservatism relies on someone else to move first; someone else to take the first risk.

This situation leaves the government to inject confidence into the system, to encourage the "animal spirits" Keynes wrote about.

If George Osborne was convinced he was too weak to embark on public investments and a slower debt repayment schedule without sparking the revenge of the bondholders, the chancellor could have joined his European counterparts and launched a 27-state defence of investment in times of trouble.

Obviously the rest of Europe is run by equally right-wing governments and Ed Balls, should he have assumed the mantle of chancellor, would have struggled to win a consensus.

Nevertheless, Osborne led the way and in the opposite direction. His adherence to right-wing economic theory and beggar-thy-neighbour tactics has brought us to this situation. It was the solution Europe's politicians adopted in the 1930s – each country desperately devaluing against the other, imposing trade barriers of one kind or another and scuppering joint government-sponsored initiatives.

Spain is showing the way with its austerity-driven recession. Where the weak tread, we look keen to follow.

Economic growth (GDP)EconomicsRecessionConsumer spendingQuantitative easingPrivate equityGeorge OsbornePhillip Inmanguardian.co.uk

Jan
23

Tony Blair had ‘secret group preparing for euro referendum’

BERJAYA

Planning was kept secret to avoid Gordon Brown's disapproval, Peter Hain discloses in autobiography

Tony Blair and his aides sanctioned a secret group inside Labour, including the-then Europe minister, Peter Hain, to prepare the ground for a euro referendum during his second term in office.

The group was secret partly to avoid Gordon Brown's disapproval, Hain discloses in his autobiography Outside In, to be published on Monday. The episode shows how determined Blair was in 2002 and 2003 to join the euro.

Hain reveals that in the middle of 2002 he "talked discreetly to key pro-Europe individuals about raising funds for communications research, focus groups, opinion polling and detailed research" to be conducted by the Labour pollster Philip Gould, who died last November.

Substantial funds were required and the operation had to be done very carefully, and at arm's length from Brown, he

Jan
22

Pay freeze to last until 2020 for millions

BERJAYA

Thinktank says rich will prosper but 'squeezed middle' will not regain pre-recession earning power for eight years

Millions of ordinary families are unlikely to see their earnings return to pre-recession levels until at least 2020, a report from a leading thinktank has warned. But it predicts that the income of the wealthy will continue to rise over the same period.

The study, which focuses on the state of the "squeezed middle" and is produced by the independent Resolution Foundation, looks at the situation of 10 million adults, who crucially do not rely heavily on means-tested support from the state, and their 5.2 million children.

A report by the foundation last year led to Ed Miliband's championing of the squeezed middle, a part of Britain that the foundation says remains a key political battleground. It says that households without children earn between £12,000 and £29,000 a year to be part of the squeezed middle; homes with children, between £16,000 and £41,000.

On Monday Labour's welfare spokesman, Liam Byrne, will debate the report's implications with Liberal Democrat MP David Laws at the foundation's London offices.

The two have not met since the former Treasury secretary Byrne's infamous note in 2010 to his successor, Laws, which read: "There's no money left." Since then, the UK's economic woes have deepened and the foundation paints a "gloomy picture on incomes for the next decade".

Byrne told the Guardian that Britain risks replicating the US's "lost decade" where the middle class has fallen so far behind the rich that "Time magazine recently wrote its obituary". Byrne said the report underlined the fact that "the government's economic strategy is doing nothing for jobs, which is why wages are stagnating and welfare reforms are doing nothing for working people. The result is inequality between the middle and the top. Working people do not have a government working on their side."

Taking the Office for Budget Responsibility's latest forecasts, the researchers show that if growth remained sluggish for the next eight years the average annual disposable income of people in this crucial electoral battleground, representing a third of the population, would be £20,200 in 2020 – around £1,700 less than in 2007.

It would take growth rates not seen for almost a decade to let incomes in the squeezed middle return to pre-recession levels by 2020.

While such strong, persistent growth might ensure ordinary families recover lost ground, the real winners would be the top half of the country's earners, whose real disposable income would rise by almost 10% by 2020. Even under the slow growth scenario envisaged by the foundation, the top half of society would see incomes rise by 4%.

The report's author, Matthew Whittaker, said there was a "growing inequality of earnings" at the heart of the long-term squeeze. "Members of the squeezed middle did not share in the spoils of economic growth in the pre-recession years, with wages at the median and below stagnating. Gains instead flowed primarily to higher income households and, more particularly, to those at the very top of the distribution.

"If this trend continues once growth returns it may not be just those on low and middle incomes finding themselves left behind in the next decade, but rather the majority of society."

Part of the reason for the disparity in future spending power according to the report is that the incomes of the lower middle class rise more slowly than the rich, with their spending power eroded by fast-rising fuel and food costs. If low- to middle-income households faced the same price rises as higher earners since 2003 in the types of goods they typically buy they would be better off by £427 in 2011.

The report says the squeezed middle also has to cope with a prolonged wage squeeze – with real wages falling 4.2% over the last year – and warns that the most significant cuts to tax credits have yet to kick in. It says that the major recipients of tax credits are facing a further loss of income of nearly half a billion pounds from this April.

According to the report's calculation, this will see 2 million households worse off by £305 in 2012.

Whittaker pointed out that as the coalition's cuts have hit women harder than men, lower to middle-income families are likely to be "hurt twice". There are also dire figures for young people in rented accommodation and for young property owners who had already borrowed too much to get on the housing ladder, leaving themselves dangerously exposed if interest rates rise.

The proportion renting and aged under 35 has soared from 28% to 47% in the last six years alone.

In the same period the number of homes owned by under-35 members of the squeezed middle fell from almost a third from 770,000 to 562,000.

Those with mortgages may be benefiting from record low interest rates, but with one in five signing up to a 100% mortgage before the recession, a quarter of families still spend between 25% and 50% of their income on their mortgage.

Gordon Brown's administration realised too late to do anything about the widening gap. A treasury paper in 2009, obtained by the Guardian, identifies a "squeezed middle" facing stagnant or falling wages since 2004 – believed to be the first official reference to the phenomenon.

To solve this, Brown's Treasury argued in 2009 for removing "low level regulatory burdens" on the industries such as retail and hotels where "squeezed Britain" works. It also suggests finding ways to get 10 hours more per week per household by 2020 by finding ways of making work more family friendly. It controversially called for "the tax and benefit system to transfer £2bn more each year".

Whittaker said the foundation's analysis "shows rising pressure from pretty much all sides".

He added: "continued low interest rates and the start of a fall in inflation offer only limited respite. This will be far outweighed by further deep cuts to tax credits due this April which will come as a shock on top of the continued wage squeeze."

A spokesman for the Treasury said: "The government has taken decisive action to tackle the deficit, which has helped to keep interest rates low for businesses and families. We recognise that people are feeling squeezed and the government is doing what it can to help, reducing fuel duty so taxes on fuel are 6p lower than they would have been, freezing council tax and implementing an increase in the personal allowance in April, taking over 800,000 of the lowest paid out of tax."

EqualityPayFamily financesEconomic growth (GDP)Tax creditsState benefitsTaxIncome taxRecessionEconomicsThinktanksGordon BrownInflationWelfareRandeep Rameshguardian.co.uk

Jan
22

Greek debt talks on knife-edge amid growing IMF pressure on bondholders

BERJAYA

Hopes dwindle of deal in time for eurozone meeting after German insistence that investors agree to lower interest rates

Hopes of a debt deal between Greece and its private creditors in time for Monday's eurozone meeting have been dashed, amid increased pressure on bondholders to accept bigger losses.

After being close to a breakthrough, the high-stakes talks – aimed at averting a Greek default by slashing the country's monumental debt load – were set back when the International Monetary Fund and Germany insisted that investors agree to reduced interest rates on new bonds.

"It has created a new set of problems," said an official, who added that the demand for lower rates reflected growing scepticism over the sustainability of Greece's debt, even if 50% is written off as initially agreed when the European Union and IMF announced a second package of rescue funds for Athens last October.

"Negotiations have been conducted by phone over the weekend and have been very intense," said the official. "Greece will set out its case at the Eurogroup [of finance ministers]. Our hope is that the differences can be bridged and there can be more solid common ground."

Well-placed sources described the delay as "putting a brake" on a deal that was virtually in place. Private government debt holders, including banks, insurers and hedge funds, had reportedly reached an agreement on interest rates averaging 4% before official creditors including the IMF and the European Central Bank called for yields to be no higher than 3.5%, citing the deteriorating Greek economic outlook.

On Saturday, Charles Dallara, who heads the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the global organisation of private investors, unexpectedly left Athens despite officials saying that he would be present at talks over the weekend. The IIF is negotiating on behalf of institutions owed about €200bn by Greece.

With so much resting on the eurozone's first large-scale debt restructuring, Greek insiders said the latest hitch would be the focus of talks between Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Berlin last night. Finance ministers representing the 17 eurozone countries also meet on Monday to discuss the debt restructuring.

Previously, the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, had told parliament that the debt reduction plan would have to be in place by Monday to give lenders enough time to draw up a second €130bn bailout for the country before the EU's next summit on 30 January. Private creditor participation has been set as a prerequisite by the EU and IMF for further aid. Without the loans Athens will be unable to meet a €14.5bn bond repayment due on 20 March, triggering a default on its debts.

"A lot of things will have to be made official by [the time] I go to the Eurogroup meeting," said Venizelos. "If there is a [financing] gap, this would have to be covered by a larger contribution from the official sector, meaning the eurozone countries, directly or indirectly, and at this point I do not see any willingness or readiness to increase that contribution. So there must be no gap. The private-sector involvement is very important."

Late on Sunday it emerged that the talks, now heading into their third week, might continue through to next weekend. "Deadlines may be moved. Ultimately it may all be agreed at the summit," said another official. "This is a very complex, highly delicate agreement that cannot just be settled like that."

The voluntary bond swap originally foresaw €100bn being sliced from Greece's €360bn debt pile, bringing its debt-to-GDP ratio down from 160% to 120% by 2020. If interest rates were cut further, net present-value losses for bondholders could be in excess of 70% – a haircut or write-off that many might refuse to accept voluntarily. Hedge funds in particular are holding out in hope that they will be able to cash in on credit default swaps, which pay out when a bond defaults.

GreeceEuropean UnionGermanyEuropeIMFEurozone crisisEuropean Central BankEuroEconomicsHelena Smithguardian.co.uk

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