Three weeks ago, Iran threatened to forcibly bar the Strait of Hormuz to "enemy ships" i.e. the USS Stennis carrier. The US bowed to the threat by stopping sending aircraft carriers through the strait. Rather than confronting Tehran, the Obama administration is holding Israel back from striking Iranian nuclear sites. The next  DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday will bare features of Israel's strike plan and also track Saudi Arabia's entry to the Middle East nuclear race with active Chinese assistance.
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US-Israeli discord over Iran went into overdrive Sunday, Jan. 15 when the White House called off Austere Challenge 12, the biggest joint war game the US and Israel have every staged, in reprisal for a comment by Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon in an early morning radio interview. He said the United States was hesitant over sanctions against Iran's central bank and oil for fear of a spike in oil prices and Israel must be ready to defend itself. Yaalon exacerbated the row over US objections to any Israeli role in military action against Iran.  

The Thai police's capture of a Lebanese-Swedish Hizballah suspect thwarted a terrorist attack on Bet Habad in Bangkok, involving the taking of hostages and blowing up the building - on the same lines as al Qaeda's 2008 assault on the Mumbai Habad center which killed 8 Israelis and Jews - only more ambitious. Habad Bangkok is much larger; its hostel has dozens of rooms. A second team was to have hit the Khao San Road restaurants popular with Israelis and Americans. The terror alert is still in force.

The unattributed killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan last Wednesday, Jan. 11, was the subject of an angry phone call from US President Barack Obama to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the next day, debkafile reports.  Washington is concerned, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, that Israel may strike Iran's nuclear sites and has bolstered the defenses of US facilities in the region. In Jerusalem, Washington's strong and unusual slamming of the attack was deeply resented.

US President Barack Obama is busy aligning Middle East allies with the next US steps on Iran. Contributing to the mounting sense in Washington of an approaching US-Iranian confrontation, the Pentagon is substantially building up its combat power around Iran, stationing nearly 15,000 troops in Kuwait - two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit – and keeping two aircraft carriers in the region.

Iran's Ali Larijani told Turkish leaders in Ankara that his country is prepared to take on any attacks and may go public on a nuclear weapon.
 

When IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi accused Iran and Hizballah Wednesday, Jan. 11of of supplying Bashar Assad with arms for suppressing protest, Turkey had just closed the Iranian corridor carrying those arms through its territory after its contribution to the Syrian army's success in beating down Hama, Homs and Idlib. debkafile discloses that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu also warned Tehran that Ankara would not tolerate a nuclear Iran. It would retaliate by posting NATO troops on the Iranian border.

Tehran plans an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, debkafile reports. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the clamor raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran's fortified Fordo bunker-site. Yet, according to a Tel Aviv University think tank scenario, Israel is resigned to a nuclear Iran and would accept a US defense pact instead of retaliating. debkafile's Washington sources refute this:  Barack Obama is resolved to use force if need be to preempt a nuclear Iran.

US, Russian, French and British air and naval forces are gathering around the Syrian and Iranian coasts on guard for fresh developments at the two Middle East flashpoints. The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov put in earlier than planned at Syria's Tartus port Sunday, Jan. 8, together with two more Russian warships. British and French naval craft head to the Persian Gulf, while the giant US RQ-4 Global Hawk drone has begun monitoring Iranian coastlines from the USS Stenning aircraft carrier.

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Iran has crossed another red line in its drive for a nuclear weapon with the announcement Sunday, Jan. 8 that the underground uranium enrichment site at Fordo near Qom goes on stream soon. debkafile's military sources:  60 percent enriched uranium can be produced at this facility - just one step before weapons grade. Israel has warned that once Fordo is operational, Iran's nuclear bomb program will be immune to attack and hidden from Western surveillance.  US and Israel launch military deployment.

Washington and Jerusalem were dismayed to discover last week that Egypt's transitional military rulers (SCAF) were preparing to drop the reins of government and hand them over - lock, stock and barrel, including the armed forces - to civilian rule, i.e., the Muslim Brotherhood, at the earliest opportunity. By staying mute while this process ripened, Israel emboldened Muslim Brotherhood leaders to reiterate that they were not bound by any pledges to Washington to uphold the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

A rush of military events was orchestrated Wednesday, Nov. 2, to persuade Tehran that the US, Britain and Israel are on the verge of a military operation unless it gives up its drive for a nuclear weapon - depending on President Barack Obama's okay. Israel would not participate in a US-led NATO strike on Iran but reserve its armed forces to defend the home front, guard the assault forces against Iran's allies and serve as a strategic reserve.