LAS VEGAS — Apple won’t be missed at the 2012 Consumer Electronic Show (CES), at least according to the chief economist of the event’s organizing body.
Shawn DuBravac, chief economist and director of research with the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), which hosts the annual, week-long international gadget parade, started the 2012 show off with a bang during his State of the Industry speech on Sunday night — taking aim at those gadget writers and Apple fans who demean the show’s importance by pointing out Apple’s longstanding absence.
“I always read 30 plus articles heading into CES about how Apple is not presenting,” DuBravac told a crowd of reporters and analysts overflowing out of a cramped conference room at the Venetian hotel. “To me, that’s not the big story.”
Instead, DuBravac said that the big story was more about the overall trend in the industry toward creating gadgets that offered “natural” i.e. intuitive controlled experiences to the user. DuBravac said this was evidenced in the explosion of touchscreen smartphones, tablets, apps and other touch and gesture-controlled gadgets over the past several years, a trend he said would only continue to pick up steam in 2012.
DuBravac even went so far as to proclaim 2012 the “Year of the Interface,” based on his projection that all of the gadgets unveiled at CES — including 30 to 50 ultrabooks (ultra-thin laptops), over 50 tablets, and over 100 smartphones, not to mention countless large-screen TVs and other high-tech toys — would feature more refined, easy-to-use controls and menus for navigating the Web.
The CEA econ chief’s presentation included a number of flashbacks to gadgets of yore to illustrate his points — perhaps none more potent than the reminder that at one point, Zenith used to make a TV remote attached to the actual set by a physical cord. However laughably anachronistic that may now seem, DuBravac noted that the 4-button “Lazy Bones” Zenith remote was in some ways superior to the tech we’ve gotten used to over the past few decade, bringing up a slide of a modern remote with 40 buttons.
“If you’ve ever tried to check your email on a 50 inch TV, you’ll know it’s an unpleasant experience,” DuBravac said.
But, he said, it was illustrative of the general cycle of technology advancement: From “birth to complexity,” back to “simplicity” and finally to “natural experience.”
DuBravac noted new TVs being showed off at CES 2012 — including an Android-based Lenovo set — were making huge leaps toward this goal. He also held out hope for a Google TV with Google web search seamlessly integrated into the channel finder, as well as thinner, bezel-less models.
“The next decade of the digital transition is all about pulling together all of the digital assets we’ve accumulated, all of our content,” DuBravac explained, “So we can organize them and search them.”
DuBravac also sought to downplay the tension between Google’s “open source” model and Apple’s “walled garden” approach when it came to their mobile operating systems (Android and iOS), saying “Open and closed platforms don’t really matter. What matters is that they are ‘open enough,’” both allowing developers the chance to build apps — and related hardware — using the powerful operating systems.
And just to give the tech analysts one more thing to talk about, DuBravac attempted to beat back the rising consensus that nobody wants a stereoscopic (no goggles) 3D TV set, saying that it was an innovative technology that just needed more time to become a commercial success.
Carl Franzen
Carl Franzen is TPM Idea Lab's tech reporter. He used to work for The Daily, AOL and The Atlantic Wire (though not simultaneously, thankfully). He's never met a button that didn't need to be pressed. He can be reached at carl@talkingpointsmemo.com.
Thanks Carl..... Just another mindless bean counter that no one should ever listen to about anything.... Meh.......
Nobody really misses Apple at CES. We know what Apple has. It's about other products that we don't know about. A lot of the stuff is experimental or specialized and this is the perfect place for it. For Apple to set out and display its iPhone, iPad, or IBook would be a yawn. They are great, but we all know what they are. God knows Apple won't display any of its new experimental ideas - it is way too secretive.
"Instead, DuBravac said that the big story was more about the overall trend in the industry toward creating gadgets that offered “natural” i.e. intuitive controlled experiences to the user."
That would be because Apple did it 5 years ago with the introduction of the iPhone. An argument could be made they did the same with the original Mac. There's a reason Apple doesn't frequent CES, it's because the technology there tends to not be followed up with actual products or is 2-4 years behind Apple's development curve.
DuBravac seems to be singing from two different hymnals here. On the one hand, he praises the old-fashioned remote; on the other, he's talking up all these different smartphones and tablets and such. How do the different products distinguish themselves from each other? Why, by including superfluous, unwanted and unused features, hence the 50-button remote.
Halloween Jack It's not the number of features; it's the complexity of the user interface. I have a smartphone (an iPhone, actually), and it's a lot easier to use than the remote to my DVD player. Of all the buttons I use on my DVD remote, I only need a few. The rest of them, I don't even know what they do. I can accidentally jostle one of them, and then I have to figure out how to reset the thing to where it ought to be.
The phone is easier to use, not because there are fewer functions, but because there's a touch interface that enables me to bring up whatever apps I want, each of which is controlled by its own touch interface.
It should be possible to develop a user remote for a video system that only has a few buttons that operate a menu-driven system that displays on the screen. Or you could have a trackpad on a remote. I'm sure engineers have figured this stuff out already, I don't know what's available these days. I still use a DVD player and a CRT TV screen. (I don't watch TV much.)
It may be that other companies are busy imitating Apple's talent for user interfaces. But as long as Apple itself remains a closed system, those 'imitators' are going to have a loyal following all their own.
paul.h.dirks Which is just fine. We've done well with multiple car companies using similar designs for over a century.
Nice sensationalist headline. The guy makes one comment about Apple and you use it to frame the entire post. This just as easily could have been titled: CES declares 2012 to the the Year of the Interface," but then you wouldn't have gotten rile up Apple devotees to click through.
indytallguy You must have read a different article than I read because the one I read was an explanation by one of the top people at CES for why CES doesn't need Apple.
I think the more obvious fact is that Apple has absolutely no need whatsoever for ES - and never has - it rising to the top of the corporate America value list without any help from your group.
So, the big news isn't the Apple (who's never attended CES) isn't attending CES. The big news is that easy-to-use, touch screen interfaces (that Apple pioneered and proved viable and that other electronic companies are copying as fast as they can) are proliferating.
So, in spirit, Apple is actually dominating the show. Okay.
Or may be Palm did that and Apple copied it. TREO.
comeinpbrstreetgang Or maybe they were all inspired by Star Trek.
comeinpbrstreetgang iPhone user, former Treo user. There's no real comparison.
RickParris Actually, I think it was Xerox that pioneered the touch screen.
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1663451/how-i-helped-i...
tchamp77 FFS, did Apple rip off *everything* from Xerox?
midnight ramblertchamp77 Xerox was totally disinterested in commercializing these ideas, so I'm glad someone ripped them off.
midnight ramblertchamp77 FFS, is it that difficult to use the web to find out that Apple <i>paid</i> Xerox for use of the concepts?
tchamp77
i was unaware of any consumer products offered by xerox incorporating capacitive touch screens with a multitouch interface that allowed for gestures such as swipes, pinch to zoom, etc. to be used to control the device. Could you provide us all with a link to an obscure website that would enlighten us… because until you do we'll rest on our ignorance believing that Apple pioneered the use of these in consumer electronics.
Cough, *asshat*, cough.
RickParristchamp77 Link to an obscure website? I'm pretty sure there's an obscure website for any viewpoint imaginable.
Now excuse me, while I go and update the blog of the Society for the Replacement of South Facing Esplanades with Hybrid Coconut-Monkey Heads.
actually, apple didn't do it first, Xerox did
now Android and Microsoft are proving that you don't have to be limited to the tiny world of Apple in order to enjoy great interfacesRickParris
This non-attack against Apple strategy is the best way to go. In the past, tech companies and the like have labeled Apple as THE enemy, just like they did with Microsoft a few years before. All that does is have the more rabid people take sides and turn everyone else off.
I'm really curious to see what the Smart TV HMIs will look like on this iteration. Hopefully, it is easy to set up and easy to navigate. If it is "all that", then give it 'til this Christmas or next to be the hot item. I like my HTPC, but it takes a geek like me to operate it. If they fix the HMI, that may drive content availability.
There is a rumor/article out on Apple's backdoor that's been programmed into each and every phone that the gubbermint can access far too easily to retrieve and restore information. I've not tested it yet, as my tin hat isn't back from the cleaners.
Cynner I think you're thinking of the recent Carrier IQ scandal. Apple was actually better than some of the others with that one because they give you the option to turn it off when you first activate your phone or upgrade to a new OS.
Cynner That is always a danger with closed ["walled garden" systems]. You can't hide a back door quite so easily in open source.
condewCynner On the other hand, you have much less malicious third party software.
A lot of tech writers say CES will be gone by 2015. Frankly, I think it'll be gone a lot sooner than that.
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