In Defense of South Carolina: Institutions Matter

We all know the story of the 2000 Republican presidential primary in South Carolina.  John McCain won New Hampshire by double digits, leading a massive increase in campaign donations, campaign volunteers and press.  In response, the Bush campaign went negative in South Carolina–using push polls and other means to spread some nasty rumors, including one that McCain had fathered a black child out of wedlock.  Messy stuff for sure.

Christopher Lamb, a colleague of mine at the College of Charleston, writing in yesterday’s Huffington Post, warns Mitt Romney to avoid “going naked to a knife fight.”  This is certainly prescient advice.  In explaining why Mitt Romney should be especially prepared in South Carolina Lamb writes:

To understand politics in South Carolina, one needs to be aware of the quote from the Unionist James Louis Petigru who responded to the state’s decision to secede from the United States in December 1860 by saying, “South Carolina is too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum.”

As a social scientist, in particular a political scientist, I have an issue with Lamb’s claim. In my mind this quote implies that South Carolina’s politics (particularly it’s primaries) is unusually negative and hyperbolic because it’s people are somehow atypical.  In simple terms, the state’s politics is a function of its 4.7 million citizens.  But while South Carolina is more conservative than most states (and no doubt differs in other ways), I highly doubt its citizenry alone leads to viscous primaries.  In fact, I’m skeptical that the people of South Carolina are even a critical factor in this case.

A political scientist (Lamb is a communications professor)–in particular one approaching this topic from an institutional perspective–might look to other factors.  Specifically, while I think Lamb’s overall point is accurate, what he overlooks in my view is that the primary system itself, and the rules making South Carolina “first in the South,” greatly affect the nature of the state’s primaries.  Because the primary system is an iterated process (rather than a one-shot, 50 state election), political “momentum” is critically important (see this paper by John Aldrich for a formal proof of this dynamic).  Simply put, candidates who win early primaries like Iowa and New Hampshire are likely to receive greater support in subsequent states because of sophisticated or “front runner” voting (see this paper) as well as generate greater campaign donations and support.  This, in turn, improves their chances of winning subsequent primaries.  Because South Carolina is third in this sequence, there is an incentive for opposition candidates to go negative independent of the state’s demographics.

In sum: I don’t think it’s that South Carolina is atypical per se, it’s just the way the primary system is designed and run.

Posted in Elections, Electoral Institutions, Primaries | Leave a comment

The Cordray Appointment and Congress’s Crisis of Legitimation

Last week Richard Cordray received what the White House called a “recess” appointment to serve as director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  (side note: during break I was surprised to learn that a family member was his roommate at Michigan State).  This was a controversial maneuver because the Senate was holding pro-forma sessions (quickly gaveling in and out) every fourth day after its normal recess date in the hopes that, because the Senate was technically “in session”, Obama would be blocked from appointing making executive appointments.  Of course Democrats used this procedure (successfully) during Bush’s second term.  Naturally, House and Senate Republicans were outraged upon hearing of Cordray’s appointment, which probably looked something like this.

Sarah Binder addressed this topic asking whether the Cordray appointment was “fair” [by which I think she meant “Constitutional”].  Her overall conclusion is that, while this is somewhat uncharted territory from a legal vantage point, there are no firm precedents against its use.  She notes that the Constitution is silent on recess appointments in general and that the Supreme Court declined to address a similar case in 2004.  Binder (aptly in my opinion) describes the White House’s maneuvering for what it is:

an aggressive use of executive power in face of the opposition’s foot-dragging over confirming a nominee to the [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau].

Binder’s claim is in contrast to the public outcry from Boehner, McConnell and company that Obama’s recess appointment represents an unnecessary “power grab.”  But despite the constitutional implications, the Cordray appointment raises a more significant question in my view: How and why Congress evolves in the face of executive encroachment?

In “Congress, the Constitution, and the Crisis of Legitimation,” Larry Dodd—my dissertation advisor and mentor—addressed this topic, arguing that Congress’s “institutional will” vis-à-vis the presidency is conditioned by a range of factors including the political external environment, how lawmakers conceive of their congressional service and long-term cycles of Congressional change.  Of Congress’s lacking institutional will in the 1960s and 1970s, Dodd writes that

In spreading organizational power so widely that Congress cannot act, members undermine not only the legitimacy of the institution but also the popular belief in the viability of Congressional policymaking (p. 413).

Now it’s important to remember that when Dodd was writing (1981), Congress was still highly decentralized despite recent reforms (due in large part to it’s heterogeneous parties and seniority norm).  In the previous decades Congress was marked by significant failings and institutional challenges: in particular the inability to enact civil rights legislation in the 1950s and 60s and Nixon’s impoundment of appropriated funds in the 1970s.

With the Cordray appointment what we see is the opposite problem that Dodd noted: careerist politicians operating in an ideologically polarized and hierarchal environment where party loyalty is critical for a member’s reelection prospects.   This cyclical pattern is something Dodd has also written about in a series of essays—see “Congress and the Question for Power” (1977) and “The Cycles of Legislative Change” (1986).  The gist of the argument is that legislative reforms are driven by the complex interaction of lawmakers’ career goals and the movement of previous generations of reformers through a hierarchical career trajectory.  When junior members occupy Congress during periods of institutional normalcy, power will be decentralized to foster the individual members’ reelection goals.  Over time, however, Congress becomes too rigid and unable to act; as a result the executive branch usurps some area of congressional authority.  The important point is that, like the Cordray appointment and Binder’s point, the executive branch does not usurp congressional prerogatives for the sake of power alone (merely to fill an important void left by Congressional inaction).  According to Dodd’s theory of Congressional cycles, over time this state of affairs leads to greater public dissatisfaction with Congress and an influx of new members tasked with re-centralizing power.  These new members, operating in an environment of Congressional upheaval, are less tied to the existing structure and, therefore, receptive to enacting reforms.

Anyway the point if this post is that (1) the Cordray appointment is due more to Congress’s institutional failings rather than an intentional “power grab” by the president and (2) that previous authors have written about these kinds of developments noting a particular pattern of change over time.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that a number of Dodd’s writings on this topic—including those cited previously—were published a month ago in a single volume.  I encourage anyone interested in Congressional history and institutional development to read “Thinking About Congress: Essays on Congressional Change.”  The reviews of this book—by Sarah Binder, Joseph Cooper, Theodore Lowi, Sean Theriault and Rodney Hero—are quite praiseworthy and impressive.

Posted in American Political Development, Empirical Theory, Legislative Politics, Legislative Theory | Leave a comment

People know why the Senate is Weird, Quick Hit Style

We’re swinging back into a semi-normal routine after vacation.

If you haven’t already read the BE Press Forum on the Senate, it has several very solid articles from multiple leading Senate scholars. If you have the time and interest, I recommend all of them (also, its free).

Jonathan Bernstein has a great take on who decides when congressional recesses occur. Beyond recommending his blog more generally, Bernstein always has excellent analyses on Senate confirmations or, more accurately, the lack thereof.

In a similar vein, Matt Glassman offers some perspective on recess appointments and constitutional powers more generally. It’s a great read and digs a little deeper into the potential historical significance for the separation of powers.

Seth Masket over at Enik Rising challenges Kevin Drum‘s take on the filibuster. Is it at all similar to the pre-Civil War nullifcation crises? He thinks not. I agree though Thomas Mann doesn’t.

Ok, this isn’t about the Senate but over at The Monkey Cage Charles Tien and Michael Lewis-Beck offer their 2012 Election prediction based on consumers’ perceptions of business conditions. I’ve used their analyses as a guide in a couple of my posts but reading the real thing is better. As conditions (read: perceptions) stand right now they predict a narrow victory for Obama in November. Keep in mind, this is before the President’s campaign is in full swing (i.e. relatively little Obama spin on economic numbers compared to the Republicans’ primary campaigns). My guess is that voters’ perceptions will shift in Obama’s favor as his campaign ramps up.

Happy 2012, everyone!

Posted in Quick Hit, Senate | Leave a comment

Congressional Salary = Congressional Disapproval?

Aaron Blake (aka The Fix) at Washington Post recently wrote about congressional disapproval with respect to member salaries. It’s an interesting take but I have a couple points to make about it.

First, let me point out that congressional salaries already put members of Congress in the top 5%. So it’s not surprising to find that so many are well off financially. In fact, it’s been this way since the beginning of the 20th Century. Matt Glassman wrote a great post about a month ago on the history of congressional pay. In part this is because higher pay insulates members from corruption (at least the really bad kind: Teapot Dome Scandal, etc). A member is less likely to take a bribe if they are making 175k than 50k. Are members paid too much? You can decide that yourself. Just know that with decreased pay comes a higher risk of corruption.

But the more important point is that when averaged in constant dollars congressional pay hasn’t fluctuated all that much. So the notion that today this is somehow a much more relevant factor than usual would have to assume that today’s populist rhetoric plays an important role in Congress’s disapproval. That’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, is it the reason congressional approval is so low? Probably not. There are a multitude of other factors that have a more pressing influence such as gridlock, the success of the 111th Congress, and intra-Congress conflict (e.g. polarization, caustic political attacks, etc) (Durr, Gilmour, and Wolbrecht 1997, gated), the process of making legislation itself (Hibbing 2001, gated), and not to mention the performance of the economy overall. And since congressional approval has been both high and low despite members’ pay, it probably doesn’t have a huge effect.

The bigger point is the research suggests that congressional approval is not an “out of touch” problem. Rather, it’s an “in touch” problem. It’s easy to point out all the ways that members of Congress are different than the average citizen. However, those differences don’t make Congress unrepresentative. There is a host of research illustrating that voters kick out members that fail to represent their interests. Rather, the problem is that as a collection of 535 different and diverse interests Congress is representing all of those interests so well that there is little to no consensus. In other words, it cannot draft legislation that a majority of members can agree on. This is normally the case when the two chambers are controlled by different parties. However, the rules in each chamber make parties so powerful that it exacerbates this problem. So again, it’s not that Congress is out of touch. Rather, it’s more likely too in-touch with their party and constituents to effectively see past differences to find common ground and legislate; which too his credit, Blake includes in his article. Put simply, people blame Congress for doing its job. Congressional salaries may be icing on the cake, but in large part I doubt it significantly moves the needle if at all.

Posted in Legislative Politics, Political Behavior | Leave a comment

Should Ron Paul “Pray for Rain” on the 3rd?

A common elections adage is that Republican candidates should “pray for rain” on election day.  The logic is that rain suppresses voter turnout among unlikely voters (who, in turn, disproportionately identify as Democrats).  The other day Mike Huckabee extended this logic to the upcoming Iowa primary, telling Chris Wallace of Fox News:

if the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul would win… Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there. And it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers.

That seems plausible.  But is it true?  A 2007 paper by Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford, and George Krause suggests it is (an ungated version can be found here).  From the abstract of their paper examining the “weather-turnout thesis”:

We argue that much of the intuitive appeal of the [Weather-turnout] thesis results from it comporting well with both socioeconomic status and rational choice models of voter turnout. We also address the theoretical underpinnings of the partisan bias conjecture associated the weather-turnout thesis, which contends that if bad weather does affect voter turnout, the resulting suppression of voters may benefit one party over the other. We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in the over 3,000 U.S. counties for 14 U.S. presidential elections (1948–2000)—the most exhaustive empirical test of the weather-turnout thesis to date… In the end, we find that bad weather (rain and snow) significantly decreases the level of voter turnout within a county. We also demonstrate that poor weather conditions are positively related to Republican party vote share in presidential elections.

In particular, the results of their impressive analysis reveal that Republican presidential candidates added about 2.5% to their vote share for every one inch of rainfall above normal.  Now the usual caveats about generalizability apply, but if we extend this effect to ideology (rather party identification) and primary elections (rather than general elections), it seems reasonable to me that bad weather will suppress turnout among Mitt Romney voters.  The logic is that ideologically extreme primary voters are more likely to cast their ballot despite inclement weather compared ideologically moderate primary voters.

Now if this logic holds then, yes, rain in Iowa may help Ron Paul’s chances as Mike Huckabee claimed (of course it may help Gingrich for the same reasons).  But does this mean that rain will be the deciding factor between a Ron Paul victory and a Mitt Romney victory?  I’m skeptical for two reasons.  First, though the most recent polling shows Gingrich, Romney and Paul in a statistical tie, my intuition is that the effect of rainfall in primary elections (even significant rainfall) is lower than that reported by Gomez, Hansford and Krause’s analysis (2.5% in their study of general elections).  Primary voters are, after all, more ideological and (I’m assuming) more motivated to turn out despite inclement weather compared to general election voters.  Moreover, a 2003 simulation by Citrin, Schickler and Sides (see an version here) shows that even full turnout rarely sways election outcomes (though there is a Democratic advantage associated with greater turnout).  The second problem is that rain is uncommon in Iowa in January.  According to one not-so-scientific source, the average BERJAYArainfall Iowa for the entire month of January is only 1.1 inches.  Moreover, an early forecast from Weather.com (left) predicts a whopping 0% chance of rain on Tuesday (and only 10% on the 2nd and 4th).

So could rain affect the Iowa Caucus?  That seems reasonable to me.  But will it affect the outcome?  Unlikely.

Posted in Elections, Primaries | 1 Comment