It’s a ridicu­lous time for spec­u­la­tion, given that the one poll that really matters is actively underway, but I’m going to spec­u­late anyway. I’ve got four ifs and a hopeful then.

• If Harper doesn’t get a majority.
• If the NDP comes in number two.
• If the NDP and the Liberals have more seats together than the Conservatives, without the help of the Bloc.
• If the NDP cal­cu­late that the public opinion cost of spear­heading a coali­tion wouldn’t be too high.
• Then we could have an NDP-​​led centre-​​left coali­tion within weeks.

I’d assign about 2/​3rds like­li­hood to the #1 if. The best two polling aggre­ga­tion and mod­el­ling sites are both pro­jecting 143 seats for the Cons, 12 short of a clear majority. Polling and mod­el­ling some­times gets it wrong, but not usually very wrong right before an election. Especially if multiple models are coa­lescing on the same projection.

#2 if is probably 2/​3rds likely as well. Even the more cautious three​hun​dredan​deight​.com is pro­jecting the NDPs in a strong second place. Given that the numbers were getting higher right up until the last poll left the field, that could mean that the final results could look even better.

#3 is hard to tell, but let’s say ¹⁄₂ chance. tooclos​e​to​call​.com says yes, three​hun​dredan​deight​.com says no.

#4 is probably 3/​4s likely. The Liberals made a choice to under­write Harper’s very effec­tive framing of coali­tions as back-​​room deals to elect second place leaders. They probably had to. But the NDP never bought that message, and they’re better placed to lead the charge on re-​​framing. And if they do form a rel­a­tively stable two-​​party sans-​​Bloc coali­tion, it would likely give them a full four years to prove to the sus­pi­cious Anglo masses that coali­tions are a boring, prac­tical arrangement.

I’m not sure how to boil those prob­a­bil­i­ties into a single math­e­mat­ical like­li­hood, because they’re all cor­re­lated with each other. But gen­er­ally I’d say we’ve got a one out of two chance of a won­derful outcome here.

The alter­na­tive could be terrible. Who says Canadian politics are boring? OK, nobody lately.

Also worth noting: the first major act of a re-​​elected Conservative party is pre­sum­ably to re-​​introduce the same budget that par­tially trig­gered the last dis­so­lu­tion. If a coali­tion is to be formed, that will be an obvious moment for it. If it happens, it could happen in a matter of weeks. Another wildcard: even if a coali­tion meant a second-​​place Liberal party very pub­li­cally going back on their word and allying them­selves with the nasty Bloc, they might still go for it. I’m not sure it would be stable or play well in the inevitable next election, but it would be hard to resist.

Oh boy.