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Archive for the ‘Political Science’ Category

October 5th, 2011

It’s often said that terrorist groups are a relatively minor threat to the U.S. compared to plain-old states. That’s true. But due to their unique interest in failed rather than strong states, they’re a profound threat to the people who live where they’re based.

September 29th, 2011

In another edition of how misunderstanding statistics can lead to misleading political predictions, let’s talk about base rates, predictive power and presidential re-election. In psychiatry, there is a fun logical problem in which students are asked to generate an instrument that will accurately classify people with and without schizophrenia in a sample of the population. [...]

September 3rd, 2011

How often in your life have you heard a political commentator say something like “Well 50% of Americans may disapprove of the job the President is doing, but he is still better off than Members of Congress, of whom 70% of Americans disapprove”? Countless op-eds, essays and news stories travel the same lines. Typically, they [...]

August 21st, 2011

The malignant narcissism of a Saddam Hussein is at the extreme of a spectrum of power-induced pathologies.

August 21st, 2011

By any objective analysis, Colonel Gaddafi is toast, but his official statements still forecast victory, as they have throughout each defeat of his troops over the past 6 months. One can’t help recalling Saddam Hussein’s Information Minister who relayed his boss’s increasingly ludicrous reports of success as the regime was rapidly being crushed. There is [...]

April 6th, 2011

Franken v. Coleman.  Prosser v. Kloppenberg.  Kamala Harris v. Steve Cooley. And, of course, Bush v. Gore.  What’s going on?  Why so many hotly contested elections all of a sudden?  I can think of five theories offhand. 1)  50-50 Country.  Probably the one favored by the national press corps, and thus probably the one least [...]

April 4th, 2011

I disagree with both my fellow bloggers. The root cause of deficits isn’t either national character or Republican perfidy. It’s the logic of social choice in a system of separated powers.

March 8th, 2011

NYT has an incisive piece on Florida Governor Rick Scott’s feud with the legislature. Among other things, Scott has been criticized for abandoning the state’s planned prescription monitoring program, which he sees as Big Government intrusion into the private lives of citizens. About seven Floridians a day are dying of pharmaceutical overdose; this Peabody-winning documentary [...]

February 11th, 2011

Mark’s cold shower is entirely correct.  But I think he may be insufficiently pessimistic.  The pieces haven’t been all thrown up in the air to fall back randomly; the system has a lot of structure and the dice are heavily loaded in favor of the army, which is the only institution to come out of [...]

September 18th, 2010

Prof. Henderson’s judgment continues to fail him, and he apparently went up against Brad Delong, something the really smart and really wise and really well-informed do with great caution. Who was it that rush in where angels fear to tread, again?  Remember the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail? Brad attached a rocket engine [...]