A public opinion research project exploring attitudes about government.
A public opinion research project exploring attitudes about government.
The latest Reason-Rupe poll asked respondents to use their own words to describe the biggest problem facing Americans today. Most listed something related to the economy, jobs, and government spending. However a substantial number also mentioned political division, big government, greed, and morality. The graphic below displays the percentage of respondents who mentioned the following issues as America’s biggest problems.
Another way to visually display these results is in a tag cloud. The following graphic depicts those same responses with word size corresponding to frequency. The bigger the word, the more people who mentioned that issue.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
According to a recent Reason-Rupe survey, young Americans ages 18-29 are less critical of government, more open to change, more trusting overall, and more socially liberal.
Young Americans are the only age group in which a majority approves of President Obama’s job performance (52 percent approve, 42 disapprove). More young Americans approve of Congress’ job performance compared to all other age groups. Nevertheless, congressional approval remains extraordinarily low, even for young Americans at 23 percent.
Interestingly, young Americans are most likely to favor a government spending cap at 86 percent, and a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution at 74 percent. They are also most likely to want to primarily rely on spending cuts (62 percent) to deal with the national debt. They are also the most likely group to favor increasing taxes on the wealthy—with the plurality defining wealthy as those earning $100,000-$249,999 a year.
Young Americans also differ from their older peers on entitlement reform. More than any other age group, they overwhelmingly support allowing workers to opt out of Social Security and Medicare at 64 percent and 65 percent, respectively. This is compared to 41 percent among those 65 and older for Social Security and 44 percent for Medicare. They are also the most open to reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits if recipients are guaranteed to still get what they put into the system, with 73 percent for Social Security and 70 percent for Medicare.
The 38 percent of young Americans who do not expect to receive any Social Security benefits and the 44 percent who do not expect to receive any Medicare benefits may in part explain their openness to reforming these programs.
Interestingly, they are the least likely age group to favor raising the retirement age, with 80 percent opposed. They are the most likely to favor means-testing the programs, but still a clear majority (72 percent) believe that all those who paid into the system should receive Social Security benefits. The same is true for Medicare: They are the most open to means-testing, but still a clear majority, 65 percent, believe all those who paid into the system should receive Medicare benefits.
On security issues, they tend to be the most trusting of government security measures, with 61 percent very or somewhat confident that the Department of Homeland Security would prevent a terrorist attack. Seventy four percent believe the TSA has made air travel safer and 59 percent are confident the TSA would catch a terrorist trying to board an airplane.
Young Americans’ view of the role for government is nuanced. Substantially more than any other age group—and also the only group to reach a majority—59 percent believe the government should not promote any particular set of values (compared to government promoting traditional values). A majority of young Americans also believe that regulation of business often does more harm than good. At the same time, majorities also believe there is more the government should be doing and that we need a strong government to handle complex economic problems.
Ideologically, young Americans are most likely to be fiscally and socially liberal at 38 percent, then fiscally conservative and socially liberal at 25 percent, then fiscally liberal and socially conservative at 19 percent, and fiscally and socially conservative at 18 percent.
Young Americans are also the most likely to support a presidential candidate who is economically conservative and socially liberal, with 61 percent support, higher than any other age group. They are also willing to consider voting for a third party presidential candidate in 2012, with 62 percent. They are also the least likely to have determined whether or not to vote for President Obama in the 2012 election, with 42 percent who are undecided but will consider voting for him. Young Americans are also most likely to believe (at 37 percent) that the Tea Party is equally concerned with social issues as well as economic issues.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
In the latest Reason-Rupe survey, respondents who self-identify as Republicans were asked if they were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which of the following candidates would they favor? Ron Paul and Mitt Romney tied for first place among Republican respondents aged 18-29 with 19 percent each. Older Americans are most likely to favor Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Young Americans are also more likely than older Americans to say they do not know for whom they will vote, at 22 percent.
Ron Paul's ability to gain favor among young Republicans may foreshadow a re-shaped Republican coalition in years to come.
If you were voting today in the 2012 Republican primary for president, which one of the following candidates would you favor? (Asked of self-identified Republicans)
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent U.S. Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
The latest Reason-Rupe poll asked respondents to use their own words to identify what the government spends the most money on. The following graphic depicts their responses with word size corresponding to frequency. The bigger the word, the more people who mentioned that particular kind of spending.
Please name a few of the things that you think the federal government spends the most money on.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9-18 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79 percent. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans believe on average the federal government wastes 51 cents out of every dollar it spends. This is up 34% from the 1986 low of 38 cents per dollar. These numbers have steadily increased overtime.
As David Kirby and I found in our analysis of Tea Party supporters at the Virginia Tea Party Convention in 2010, and published in Politico, the Tea Party is not one homogenous blob of ideologues. Many political scientists and political pundits who have not examined the data wrongly conclude the Tea Party is the GOP’s base of extreme fiscal and social conservatives. Instead, examination of nationwide survey data reveals the Tea Party has at least two major groups: one libertarian leaning and the other socially conservative. These two groups agree on most things economic, but disagree when it comes to social and cultural issues.
The recent Reason-Rupe poll also finds two groups among those who self-identify as supporters of the Tea Party, with 41 percent leaning-libertarian and 59 percent socially conservative. Tea Partiers generally agree on economic issues and abstract role of government questions. However, a split emerges on whether government has a role in promoting traditional values in society or if the government should not promote any particular set of values.
There are demographic differences between the two groups, with the libertarian-leaners less likely to attend religious services, more likely to come from the Northeast, with slightly higher educational attainment in some cases, and younger.
Although Tea Partiers overall are de-branded Republicans, libertarian-leaning Tea Partiers are even more so. The plurality response to partisan identification is 44 percent “Independent” compared to 39 percent “Republican.” When independents are asked which way they lean, most Tea Partiers lean Republican. Consequently, 39 percent of libertarian-leaning Tea Partiers are Republican and 29 percent lean Republican; in contrast, 57 percent of socially conservative Tea Partiers are Republican and 20 percent lean Republican.
Libertarian-leaners voiced more intense support for allowing workers the choice to opt out of Social Security and Medicare. They are also more likely to favor raising the retirement age than socially conservative Tea Partiers. They are less confident in the department of Homeland Security and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and about the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are also more likely to believe "misguided" regulations rather than the "lack of" regulations led to the troubled housing market.
Libertarian-leaners are much more likely to support a
presidential candidate who is fiscally conservative and socially
liberal. They are also more likely to consider voting for a third
party candidate.
In the latest Reason-Rupe poll, respondents were asked to use their own words to list which things the federal government spends the most money on. Answers were categorized and coded and then compared with actual government spending data. These data display the first responses given to what the government spends the most money on. These data demonstrate that respondents’ first responses overestimated spending for defense and the military and underestimated spending for mandatory spending programs, including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, in part because they underestimated the spending to means-tested mandatory programs.
UPDATE: For clarification I replaced the second pie chart with a table "Percentage Distribution of Outlays by Budget Enforcement." Survey respondent percentages should not be directly compared to the federal budget percentages. Instead, the table "Percentage Distribution of Outlays by Budget Enforcement" provides a context for which to interpret survey results.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
Besides a recent CNN poll and some academic analysis, little has been done to study the differences between Tea Party supporters and non-Tea Party Republicans. Yet many still make the claim that the Tea Party movement is in fact the GOP base, more conservative and more Republican. Reason-Rupe survey data reveal demographic similarities between Tea Party supporters and non-Tea Party Republicans, but also differences in their level of commitment to fiscal conservatism, approach to politics, and partisan identification.
Commitment to Fiscal Conservatism
Overall, Tea Party supporters and non-Tea Party Republicans are quite similar on economic issues, with Tea Partiers having slightly more intense preferences. For example 86 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans favor a government spending-cap compared to 95 percent of Tea Partiers. Seventy six percent of non-Tea Party Republicans favor a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, compared to 87 percent of Tea Partiers. Sixty seven percent of non-Tea Party Republicans believe cutting spending will mostly help the economy, compared to 76 percent of Tea Party supporters. Tea Partiers are less likely to believe the government would keep its promise to use increased tax revenues to reduce the deficit, with 81 percent of Tea Partiers believing that the government would use increased tax revenues to spend on new programs compared to 68 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans.
However, Tea Partiers are more adamant in their opposition to tax hikes. Fifty eight percent of Tea Partiers want to reduce the national deficit with only spending decreases, compared to 46 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans. A majority of Tea Partiers oppose increasing taxes on the wealthy, compared to 57 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans, who would favor such a proposal.
Entitlements
Both groups agree that it is primarily the responsibility of the individual to plan for retirement income (72 percent for both groups) and purchase health insurance in retirement (55 percent and 59 percent for non-Tea Party and Tea Party members, respectively). Both are willing to reduce their Social Security and Medicare benefits if they were guaranteed to receive what they and their employer contributed into the system (69 percent and 65 percent for Social Security, respectively; 66 percent and 67 percent for Medicare, respectively).
However, Tea Party members are far more likely than non-Tea Party Republicans to strongly favor allowing individuals to opt out of Social Security if they choose (53 percent and 38 percent, respectively). The same is true for Medicare, with 51 percent of Tea Partiers favoring strongly compared to 33 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans.
Approach
Significant differences between Tea Party supporters and non-Tea Party Republicans emerge over approach to reform. Sixty nine percent of Tea Party supporters favor the Congressional Tea Party Caucus’ approach to opposing bills that would increase federal tax revenues, compared to 36 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans. Seventy eight percent of Tea Partiers believe that the Tea Party has had a positive impact on the way Washington D.C. works, compared to 37 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans. Seventy five percent of Tea Partiers would consider voting for a Tea Party presidential candidate running against President Obama and the Republican presidential nominee in the 2012 presidential election, compared to 43 percent among non-Tea Party Republicans.
Security
Non-Tea Party Republicans are slightly more confident that the TSA would prevent a terrorist attack, with 59 percent very or somewhat confident. However, Tea Party supporters are evenly divided with 50 percent very or somewhat confident in the TSA compared to 49 percent who are slightly or not at all confident. Seventy two percent of non-Tea Party Republicans believe the TSA has made air travel safer, compared to 64 percent of Tea Partiers.
Tea Party supporters are substantially more likely to favor replacing TSA personnel with private security screeners, with 61 percent in favor, compared to 44 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans.
Seventy percent of Tea Party supporters believe “we have less personal freedom now” compared to 51 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans. Moreover, 59 percent of Tea Party supporters believe “we have given up too much freedom and privacy in the name of security,” compared to 47 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans who agree.
Self-Identification
Nearly half of Tea Party supporters are ostensibly de-branded Republicans. Although they may vote Republican, 42 percent refuse to identify with either the Republican or Democratic parties. In comparison, 67 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans self-identify as Republican and 31 percent as Independent. Among Independents who were asked which direction they lean, 97 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans said they were closer to the Republican Party, while only 49 percent of Tea Partiers agreed. Instead, 33 percent of Tea Partiers said they still choose to align with “neither” party.
Nevertheless, 58 percent of Tea Partiers identify as conservative and 20 percent as moderate, compared to 46 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans who identify as conservative and 31 percent as moderate. The allocation of ideological political groups shows more communitarians and liberals among non-Tea Party Republicans, and primarily conservatives and libertarians among Tea Partiers. What communitarians and liberals share in common is greater fiscal liberalism, and what libertarians and conservatives share in common is greater fiscal conservatism. This suggests that not all the religious conservatives are found in the Tea Party.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
In efforts to make a populist appeal, President Obama declared this afternoon: "I reject the idea that asking the hedge-fund manager to pay the same tax rate as a plumber or teacher is class warfare. I just do." The president announced plans to raise taxes on the wealthy and for a new minimum tax rate on millionaires to ensure that the wealthy whose income may largely derive from capital gains and dividends will have incomes impacted not only by corporate income taxes, but by higher capital gains taxes as well.
Results from the Reason-Rupe poll actually demonstrate a willingness by a majority of Americans to increase taxes on the “wealthy.” However these preferences depend greatly on how one defines wealthy. The poll asked the standard question “Do you think the federal government should increase taxes on the wealthy,” with 69 percent in favor and 28 percent opposed. However, respondents in favor were then asked what household income they would use to define someone who is wealthy and should therefore pay higher taxes. Respondents consistently listed incomes that were above their own, even high-income respondents, suggesting that people may want to raise taxes, but just not on themselves.
For instance, the interquartile range among those making less than $25,000 a year ranged from $100,000 to $500,000 a year. Yet, those making $100,000-$199,000 defined wealthy as $250,000 to $5000,000. Those making over $200,000 defined wealthy from $300,000 to $1,000,000. The graphic below compares each income group to that groups’ preferred definition of the term “wealthy.” Each group typically wants to tax those who make more than they do.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
A recent Reason-Rupe survey asked respondents to use their own words to describe their perception of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Responses ranged from very negative to very positive. Negative comments typically mentioned a perception of TSA incompetence and overstepping proper authority; some were simply angry with the TSA. Most of those with positive views generally mentioned the TSA doing a “good job” while some had positive views tempered with reservations about TSA authority or effectiveness.
Overall, 43 percent of Americans have negative views of the TSA, 38 percent have positive views, 8 percent are neutral, and 11 percent do not have an opinion. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll and coded responses into the following categories.
The Transportation Security Administration, or TSA, was created to handle airport security after the 9/11 attacks. What word best describes your view of the TSA?
Negative views toward the TSA appear to serve as an indicator of Americans’ confidence in government security agencies to do their jobs properly. Negative attitudes toward the TSA translate into skepticism toward the Department of Homeland Security, openness to reform, and concerns over a loss of privacy and freedom. These Americans are likely more attuned to the costs associated with security measures because they are not convinced the costs are worth it. (Read more about the poll’s results on US security measures here, here, here.)
First, 72 percent of those with positive views of the TSA are very or somewhat confident that the Department of Homeland Security will prevent another terrorist attack on U.S. soil, whereas only 42 percent with negative views of the TSA agree. Instead a majority of those with negative views of the TSA are slightly or not at all confident.
Second, 67 percent of Americans with negative views of the TSA are not confident that the TSA would catch a terrorist trying to board an airplane. In contrast, 70 percent of Americans with positive views of the TSA believe it would catch a terrorist trying to board an airplane.
Ninety three percent of Americans with positive views of the TSA believe the TSA has made air travel safer, compared with only 48 percent of those with negative views. This might explain why 52 percent of those with negative views of the TSA favor replacing TSA airport security screeners with screeners from private companies, compared with 30 percent among those with positive views of the TSA.
Differences also emerge between those with positive and negative views of the TSA on general attitudes regarding security, freedom, and privacy. Seventy nine percent of those with positive views of the TSA believe we are safer now compared to less than half among those with negative views of the TSA. A slight majority of those with positive views of the TSA believe we have less personal freedom now, compared to 70 percent of those with negative views of the TSA. Yet both groups overwhelmingly agree we have less privacy now, although this number is substantially higher among those with negative views of the TSA. An astounding 95 percent of Americans with positive views of the TSA believe today’s security measures may be inconvenient but are generally worth it, compared to 68 percent among those with negative views of the TSA. Responses flip between the groups when asked if we have given up too much freedom and privacy in the name of security: 67 percent of those skeptical of the TSA agree compared to 41 percent of those favorable of the TSA.
Perceptions of the TSA also correlate with ones’ background, demographics, and frequency of travel. Americans who have negative views of the TSA flew somewhat more often than those with positive or neutral views of the TSA. This is statistically significant at the .10 level. Men, older people, Caucasians, higher income, higher education, private-sector workers are more likely to have negative views of the TSA. Among political groups, libertarians, conservatives, Independent-leaning Republicans, and Tea Party supporters are the least likely to have favorable views of the TSA. Democrats and communitarians are the most likely to have positive views. Interestingly, once regular Republicans are separated out from Tea Partiers and Independent-leaning Republicans, more have positive views of the TSA than negative. Moreover, libertarians have by far much more disparate opinion on the TSA than conservatives.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
The latest Reason-Rupe poll asked Americans to volunteer their own preferred 2012 presidential candidates. Responses ranged from President Obama, to Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, to Warren Buffet, Oprah, and family members.
Top vote getters among those who identify with the Tea Party movement include Rick Perry at 11 percent, Mitt Romney at 8 percent, Sarah Palin at 7 percent, Ron Paul at 4 percent, and Chris Christie at 3 percent.
If you could choose any American, who would you like to see run for president in 2012-Among Tea Party Supporters
Top vote getters among those who self identify as Pure Independents (do not lean toward either party) include President Obama at 12 percent, themselves or their family members at 7 percent, celebrities at 5 percent, Hillary Clinton at 4 percent, and Ron Paul at 4 percent.
If you could choose any American, who would you like to see run for president in 2012-Among Pure Independents
Top vote getters among those who self identify as non-Tea Party Republicans, include Mitt Romney at 8 percent, Rick Perry at 6 percent, President Obama at 4 percent, lesser known candidates at 4 percent, and Mike Huckabee at 4 percent.
If you could choose any American, who would you like to see run for president in 2012-Among non-Tea Party Republicans
Top vote getters among all who self-identified as Independents (including leaners) include President Obama at 9 percent, Hilary Clinton at 6 percent, Ron Paul at 4 percent, themselves or their family members at 4 percent, and Mitt Romney at 3 percent.
If you could choose any American, who would you like to see run for president in 2012-Among all Independents, including leaners
Top vote getters among all who self-identified as Democrats include President Obama at 35 percent, Hilary Clinton at 10 percent, Bill Clinton at 2 percent, themselves and their family at 2 percent, and lesser known politicians at 2 percent.
If you could choose any American, who would you like to see run for president in 2012-Among all Democrats
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
Some of the largest and most prominent Tea Party organizations contend that their primary goal is economic in nature. The mission statement of Tea Party Patriots, one of the largest umbrella organizations, reads, “Fiscal Responsibility, Constitutionally Limited Government, Free Markets.” Tea Party Express, who recently partnered with CNN to host a GOP Presidential debate, declares, “The Tea Party Express stands for 5 simple fiscal principles.”
According to a recent Reason-Rupe survey, an overwhelming majority of Tea Party supporters agree. When asked if the Tea Party movement is primarily about cutting spending and limited government or if it was equally about economics and social issues, 74 percent of Tea Party supporters say it's about cutting spending. However, among Americans who do not support the Tea Party, less than half believe the Tea Party is only about cutting spending and 27 percent believe it is equally about advocating social issues. Another 20 percent say they do not know whether the Tea Party is primarily about economics or both social and economic issues.
One’s perception of the Tea Party significantly impacts one's view of the Tea Party in Washington D.C. Among those who believe the Tea Party is primarily about economic issues, 47 percent believe the Tea Party has had a positive impact and 37 percent believe it has had a negative impact on Washington. In contrast, among those who believe the Tea Party is equally about social and economic issues, 65 percent believe the Tea Party has had a negative impact compared to 23 percent who believe its impact has been positive.
Among those who believe the Tea Party is primarily about economic issues, half would consider voting for a Tea Party presidential candidate and half would not. However, among those who believe social issues are equally important to the Tea Party, 62 percent would not consider a Tea Party presidential candidate, and only 29 percent would.
Tea Party perceptions also correlate with favored approaches for dealing with the deficit. Among those who believe the Tea Party is primarily about economic issues, 43 percent favor the Congressional Tea Party Caucus' approach to oppose all new taxes, compared to 31 percent among those who perceive the Tea Party to be about social and economic issues. Interestingly, a majority of both groups oppose the Congressional Tea Party Caucus’ approach to opposing bills that would raise federal tax revenues.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
The recent Reason-Rupe poll asked respondents more than just about their political views, but also about their values and perceptions of society. Presumably, we should expect these views to correlate with or underlie their policy preferences and political group identification.
Tea Party Supporters, Democrats, Pure Independents, and non-Tea Party Republicans vary substantially in their assumptions and values. Sixty six percent of Tea Party supporters believe that wealth in society can grow so there is enough for everyone, yet 59 percent of Democrats believe that people usually get rich at the expense of others. Sixty one percent of Republicans agree with Tea Partiers compared to 34 percent who agree with Democrats. Fifty six percent of Pure Independents agree with Democrats and 38 percent agree with Tea Partiers and Republicans.
Significant differences also emerge across the four derived political groups (read here for group descriptions). Sixty seven percent of libertarians and 70 percent of conservatives believe wealth can grow; in contrast, 70 percent of liberals and 54 percent of communitarians believe people get rich at the expense of others.
A majority of all groups agree that hard work is the most important thing for getting ahead, but substantially more Tea Partiers and Republicans agree. Eighty nine percent of Tea Partiers and 86 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans believe wealth is most important for getting ahead; 74 percent of Democrats agree, and pure Independents are right in the middle at 80 percent. Among ideologicalgroups, 28 percent of liberals believe that luck is more important than hard work for getting ahead, compared to 5 percent of conservatives, 9 percent of libertarians, and 16 percent of communitarians. Overall, this demonstrates that American culture is grounded in the belief that if people work hard they can get ahead.
Majorities also believe that if one had to choose between teaching their children between working hard and being self-reliant or learning to share with others, they would teach their kids to work hard and be self-reliant. Yet Tea Partiers and non-Tea Party Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats and Pure Independents to agree. Seventy one percent of Tea Partiers and 74 percent of non-Tea Party Republicans say it would be better to teach kids how to work hard and be self-reliant. Fifty six percent of Democrats and 65 percent of Pure Independents agree. Interestingly, 40 percent of liberals and 35 percent of communitarians believe it is more important to teach children to share with others than to be self-reliant, compared to 17 percent of libertarians and 19 percent of conservatives.
There are also demographic differences over beliefs about whether wealth can grow so there is enough for everyone or if people get rich at the expense of others. There are significant differences among racial groups: A majority of Caucasians believe wealth can grow so there’s enough for everyone, but 60 percent of African-Americans and 55 percent of Latinos believe people generally get rich at the expense of others. Asians are fairly evenly divided with a majority believing people generally get rich at the expense of others. Substantial differences emerged across income groups. Higher income Americans are much more likely than lower income Americans to believe that wealth can grow enough for everyone.
Discussion
Asking questions about values allows respondents to step outside the political realm and consider basic values and assumptions that shape their worldview. Individuals do not need to be well versed on policy details to know whether they think hard work or luck matter most for getting ahead in society. Indeed, values and assumptions often underlie (or at least correlate with) policy beliefs once individuals learn policy information. For instance, if an individual believes that the U.S. economy is generally a fair meritocracy where individuals can primarily achieve success through hard work, and perseverance, policies aimed at redistributing the rewards of work and perseverance may seem less sensible. However, if one believes that life’s success is primarily the result of luck, fortune, and natural endowments (family born into, natural talents, etc.) then redistributive policies may seem fair.
Another method of gleaning values is to ask questions about child-rearing. (Please see Stenner p. 23-24 for a brief discussion; see Kohn for discussion of the development of measures of childrearing values.) This method asks respondents what qualities they consider most important when raising a child, typically by asking respondents to choose between pairs of desirable attributes (Stenner). Desirable attributes would line up on a scale, with autonomy on one end and conformity on the other; however, other scales can also be used. These values and assumptions also underlie (or correlate) with policy beliefs.
Methodology Notes
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
Americans are skeptical about the efficacy of the United States' presence overseas. According to the latest Reason-Rupe poll 61 percent of Americans believe the U.S. uses its military force in foreign conflicts too often, while only 9 percent believe the U.S uses it not often enough. A quarter believes the U.S. uses its military force in foreign conflicts the right amount.
Americans are also unconvinced that keeping troops in Afghanistan until the end of 2014 will be particularly advantageous to the U.S. Instead 65 percent believe keeping troops in Afghanistan through 2014 will make “no difference.” Only 19 percent believe it will make the US safer and 12 percent believe it will make the U.S. less safe. Americans also do not believe that the war in Iraq has been worth it, with 62 percent saying it has not been worth it, compared to 32 percent who say it has.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was created nearly nine years ago, in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Now with just about a decade of experience with the DHS, the Reason-Rupe poll asked Americans about their level of confidence in the department’s primary role: preventing another terrorist attack on US soil. Only 15 percent of Americans are “Very Confident” with another 40 percent who are “Somewhat Confident”. Another 21 percent is slightly confident, and 22 percent is not at all confident.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
Recent Reason-Rupe survey data reveals that 69 percent of the public believes the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has made air travel safer. This is generally consistent across political groups, although Democrats are the most likely to agree (74 percent) and the Tea Party is least likely to agree (64 percent).
Do you think the TSA has made air travel safer?
However, the public is divided over whether it believes the TSA would catch a terrorist trying to board an airplane at a U.S. airport. Forty nine percent have confidence in the TSA whereas 44 percent do not. At 53 percent Democrats are the most likely to believe the TSA would catch a terrorist trying to board an airplane, compared to pure Independents, only 44 percent of whom are confident in the TSA.
The public is also fairly divided over supporting the replacement of TSA airport security screeners with screeners from private companies working under government supervision, with 41 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed. However, dramatic differences emerge comparing political groups. Sixty one percent of Tea Party supporters favor privatizing the TSA compare to 31 percent opposed. This result is flipped for Democrats with 61 percent opposed and 29 percent in favor. A majority of independents also oppose privatization at 52 percent to 35 percent. Republicans are split with 44 percent in favor and 43 percent opposed.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
Americans believe increased security measures implemented by federal, state, and local governments since 9/11 have come with benefits and costs for both security, freedom, and privacy.
I am going to read you several statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with that particular statement:
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
With the 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks approaching, 55 percent of Americans say “we have given up too much freedom and privacy in the name of security” since the attacks, according to a new national Reason-Rupe Public Opinion Survey of 1,200 adults.
Nearly, 79 percent of Americans feel we have less privacy now than we did before 9/11 and 62 percent say we have less personal freedom today. However, 81 percent have faith that the security measures implemented since the attacks make us safer overall.
Only 15 percent of the public is “very confident” that the Department of Homeland Security, created following 9/11, will prevent another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. Another 40 percent are somewhat confident and 21 percent are slightly confident that the agency will prevent an attack.
When it comes to airport security, 49 percent of Americans believe the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) would catch a terrorist trying to board a plane at a U.S. airport, while 44 percent say the TSA would not. Confidence in the TSA is notably high among Democrats, who, by a margin of 54 percent to 38 percent, believe the TSA would capture a terrorist trying to get on a plane. Conversely, by 51 percent to 45 percent, Republicans do not think TSA screeners would spot a terrorist.
Over 41 percent of the public supports replacing TSA screeners with airport security screeners from private companies who would work under government oversight, but 47 percent of those polled oppose such a change. Here again, Democratic support for the TSA is noteworthy. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats oppose a return to private security screeners, with only 30 percent in favor. In contrast, 55 percent of Republicans support privatizing airport security screeners and 35 percent oppose doing so.
As the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq continue, just 19 percent of Americans believe leaving U.S. troops in Afghanistan until at least 2014 will make us safer, while 65 percent think it will make no difference in our safety and 12 percent contend it will make us less safe.
In evaluating the war in Iraq, 62 percent of Americans say the war has not been worth it for the United States.
And a nearly identical number of Americans, 61 percent, say the United States uses its military force in too many foreign conflicts. Twenty-five percent say the US military is used in the “right amount” of foreign conflicts and 9 percent say the military is not used enough.
Full Poll Online
The complete Reason-Rupe survey is online here (pdf).
This Reason-Rupe poll, conducted August 9-18, 2011, surveyed a random, national sample of 1,200 adults by telephone (790 on landlines, 410 on cell phones). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll was conducted for Reason Foundation by NSON Opinion Strategy.
This is part of a series of Reason-Rupe public opinion surveys dedicated to exploring what Americans really think about government and major issues. This Reason Foundation project is made possible thanks to the generous support of the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation.
The latest Reason-Rupe survey results reveal diverse attitudes toward Social Security and Medicare and towards the potential for reform.
Overwhelmingly, Americans view Social Security and Medicare as “contributive” programs, meaning that they believe that all Americans who contributed should be rewarded by receiving their benefits.
This conceptualization of entitlements as “contributive” rather than “redistributive” was explored and discussed in a previous post. Our findings reveal that a majority of Americans are open to entitlement reform as long as they are guaranteed to receive the money they have already contributed into the two programs.
This also helps potentially explain why 67 percent of Americans oppose raising the retirement age. If a majority of Americans view these programs as contributive and essentially a contract with the government, it explains why they would not want the government to change the terms of the contract for when they start getting their money back.
When asked what the Social Security retirement age should be, results ranged from 65 to 75, with a median of 65.
Nevertheless, Americans favor allowing individuals to opt out of the programs if they choose.
In part, this result is likely driven by the 60 percent of individuals who believe that they are primarily responsible for saving enough money to meet basic expenses in retirement. However, only 43 percent believe they are personally responsible for saving enough money to purchase health insurance in retirement.
Most Americans are also not convinced that they will receive back the money they have already contributed to the Social Security system. Retirees, however, are more confident that they will continue to receive expected benefits, in contrast to those who have not yet retired.
Expectations for Social Security Benefits
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
According to a recent Reason-Rupe poll, a majority of Americans favor reforming Social Security (61 percent) and Medicare (59 percent) if they are guaranteed to get back what they originally contributed into the system. This reveals important information about how the public conceptualizes entitlements in general and what policymakers must consider in order to reform the system. Moreover, a majority of people would also favor allowing workers to opt out of Social Security (54 percent) and Medicare (56 percent).
These results conflict significantly with the findings of other polls. The following will explain why.
Media poll after poll after poll, as well as left-leaning polls and right-leaning polls, have clearly demonstrated that the public does not want to cut spending for two of the largest federal programs: Social Security and Medicare. The media and political class have understandably come to theconclusion that, “It has become a maxim of U.S. politics that Americans approve of cutting spending in concept but disapprove of cutting specific programs.” The Associated Press explains its AP-GfK poll results by arguing that “most Americans say they don't believe Medicare has to be cut to balance the federal budget, and ditto for Social Security." If one were to digest all of the commentary and polling data, one would likely conclude that not cutting Social Security or Medicare is one of the few things that most Americans agree on.
Moreover, as Fox Business Channel host John Stossel pointed out recently on his show, even among Tea Party supporters, 62 percent believe entitlements are worth the costs, compared to 33 percent of those who said entitlements are not worth it. This suggests hypocrisy among the movement that is most vocal about reducing the size of government.
Recent results from the Reason-Rupe poll dig deeper into American attitudes to reveal why these aforementioned survey questions do not get at how Americans actually conceptualize these programs. In fact, our results show that a majority of Americans are open to entitlement reform.
We started by asking the standard questions asked in the aforementioned polls:
“Would you be willing to have your current or future Social Security benefits reduced as part of a plan to balance the federal budget or ensure the Social Security program remains in place for future retirees?”
Not surprisingly, a similar proportion (57 percent) oppose.
“Would you be willing to have your current or future Medicare benefits reduced as part of a plan to balance the federal budget or ensure Medicare remains in place for future retirees?"
Again, not surprisingly, a similar proportion (51 percent) oppose.
However, we next asked if respondents would favor reductions in their Social Security and Medicare benefits if they were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount of money that they have contributed into the system. (Please review Methodology Detail below)
Interestingly our results flipped, with 61 percent and 59 percent, respectively, agreeing.
Would you be willing to have your current or future Social Security benefits reduced as part of a plan to balance the federal budget or ensure the Social Security program remains in place for future retirees?/or if you were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount of money that you have contributed into the system?
Would you be willing to have your current or future Medicare benefits reduced as part of a plan to balance the federal budget or ensure Medicare remains in place for future retirees?/ or if you were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount of money that you have contributed into the system?
Entitlements have two components. The first is a “savings account” component such that individuals contribute money to Social Security and Medicare from their paychecks. Second, entitlements include a redistributive element whereby money from those with higher lifetime earnings is redistributed to those with lower lifetime earnings. These two components muddled together might help explain why both Republicans and Democrats generally favor these programs. According to Gallup data, support for the programs is virtually identical.
Source: Gallup
However, most poll questions that ask about reducing entitlement spending do not distinguish between these two components of the program. Moreover, it is not obvious that just because a person favors a Social Security savings account that they also favor having their income redistributed. The Reason-Rupe poll’s findings suggest that when these two components are disentangled, Americans care most about getting back the money they contributed to the system. They would even be willing to cut additional benefits they may have received, as long as they get what they earned and contributed. This shows that support for entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare is largely driven by the “contributive” component rather than the redistributive component.
Understanding how the two separate components drive support for Social Security and Medicare makes it clear why Americans have appeared so intransigently averse to reform. It does not make sense to most people why government would need to cut Social Security and Medicare after they have already contributed so much of their own money towards the programs. If they had known that the government would renege on its contract, they could have simply put their money in a risk-free low-return savings account, where at least their principal would remain the same.
These findings also undermine the idea that limited government advocates who are adverse to cutting Social Security and Medicare spending are hypocrites. It is not necessarily the case that these individuals want to cut government spending for everyone but themselves; instead, they simply want to recoup the money that they have already contributed to the system. They just want their money back.
Find full results here.
Methodology Detail:
For Social Security
The survey first asked respondents: “Would you be willing to have your current or future Social Security benefits reduced as part of a plan to balance the federal budget or ensure the Social Security program remains in place for future retirees?”
| Yes | 37 |
| No | 57 |
| Don't Know | 6 |
| Total | 100 |
Then among those who answered “No” we asked: “Would you be more willing to accept reductions in your current or future Social Security benefits if you were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount of money that you have contributed into the system?”
| Yes | 43 |
| No | 53 |
| Don't Know | 4 |
| Total | 100 |
Then we combined those who answered, “Yes” to the first question and those who answered, “Yes” to the second question. This totals the percentage of Americans who would accept reductions in their Social Security benefits as part of a plan to balance the federal budget and/or if they were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount of money that they have already contributed into the system.
| Yes | 61 |
| No | 30 |
| Don't Know | 9 |
| Total | 100 |
For Medicare
The survey first asked respondents: “Would you be willing to have your current or future Medicare benefits reduced as part of a plan to balance the federal budget or ensure Medicare remains in place for future retirees?”
| Yes | 43 |
| No | 51 |
| Don't Know | 6 |
| Total | 100 |
Then among those who answered “No” we asked: “Would you be more willing to accept a reduction in your current or future Medicare benefits if you were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount you have contributed into the system?”
| Yes | 32 |
| No | 66 |
| Don't Know | 2 |
| Total | 100 |
Then we combined those who answered, “Yes” to the first question and those who answered, “Yes” to the second question. This totals the percentage of Americans who would accept reductions in their Medicare benefits as part of a plan to balance the federal budget and/or if they were still guaranteed to receive at least the amount of money that they have already contributed into the system.
| Yes | 59 |
| No | 33 |
| Don't Know | 8 |
| Total | 100 |
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Clickhere for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
The results from the latest Reason-Rupe poll show ostensibly conflicting results about where Americans place the primary responsibility for retirement savings and for health insurance costs during retirement.
When the questions avoid the polarizing context of “entitlement reform” or the explicit mention of Social Security, a clear majority of Americans (60 percent) believe that they are primarily responsible for saving enough money to meet their own basic expenses in retirement. Roughly a third of Americans believe they should primarily expect help from the government to meet basic expenses in retirement.
When the question becomes who “should be primarily responsible for saving enough money to purchase health insurance in retirement,” just 43 percent of respondents believe they should be primarily responsible. Fifty percent believe they should primarily expect help from the government to acquire health insurance. This attitude may stem in part from the current regulatory framework, which makes it easier to obtain health insurance through employers. Thus it might not be clear to many Americans just how they would go about obtaining competitively-priced health insurance in the private market.
Despite these somewhat conflicting numbers, a substantial percentage of Americans do nonetheless believe they are primarily responsible for saving enough money to meet their own basic retirement expenses, including health insurance. This finding should prompt further discussion about reforming these massive programs, since nearly half—if not more than half—of Americans believe responsibility for retirement should lie with the individual.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
As explored in our previous post, public sentiment has turned toward cutting government spending. Recent Reason-Rupe poll results help explain why Americans have focused their attention on spending cuts.
First, 69 percent of Americans anticipate their future taxes increasing, and 32 percent say they anticipate their taxes to “increase a lot” over the next five years. Twenty two percent expect their taxes to stay the same and only 6 percent expect their taxes to decrease.
Second, Americans do not expect future tax revenues to be used toward addressing the budget deficit and national debt as promised. Instead, 62 percent believe the government would use higher taxes to spend on new programs, compared to 27 percent who believe new taxes would be spent to reduce the deficit.
Third, most Americans believe that reducing spending will help the U.S. economy. Cutting government spending will undoubtedly help some and hurt some in the short run, but the question was asked about the net impact of reduced spending. Fifty seven percent of Americans believe it would mostly help, and 15 percent believe it would have no impact. Only 21 percent believe it would mostly harm the economy.
In summary, most Americans expect their taxes to go up, and then those increased taxes to be spent in ways other than addressing the budget deficit and national debt. Moreover, a majority of Americans believe that cutting spending will help the U.S. economy. Altogether, these help explain the focus on cutting government spending.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
After billions in bailouts and stimulus spending, recent Reason-Rupe poll results reveal public sentiment has turned against government spending and shifted toward spending cuts. Although many Americans are not necessarily opposed to raising revenues (taxes) in some form or to raising taxes on the wealthy, the consensus wants Washington to focus on spending cuts, rather than on raising revenues.
Seventy seven percent of Americans believe the federal government should have a spending cap that prevents it from spending more than it takes in during a given year—62 percent believe this strongly. In addition, 69 percent favor a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced federal budget, with 50 percent strongly favoring such a reform.
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: "The federal government should have a spending cap that prevents it from spending more than it takes in during a given year."
Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget?
Respondents were asked about their preferred solution to reducing the $14.3 trillion national debt. At 57 percent, the most preferred solution was to focus on reducing spending, and possibly increasing some taxes. Only 23 percent wanted equal emphasis on both tax increases and spending cuts, while only 15 percent wanted to primarily rely on tax increases. Moreover, the plurality response at 37 percent was to decrease spending with no tax increases.
Overall, these results suggest that although the public is not necessarily averse to some revenue increases, the majority wants Washington to focus on reducing government spending.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
The latest Reason-Rupe poll results reveal a potential opportunity for a third-party presidential candidate. Seventy two percent of Americans say they would or might consider voting for a third-party presidential candidate, while 48 percent of Americans say they would support a presidential candidate who was “conservative on economic issues and liberal on social issues.” Eighteen percent of Americans said they would strongly support such a candidate, and this is presuming the candidate ran under the banner of a third party. Finally, 37 percent of Americans said they would consider voting for a third-party Tea Party candidate if she or he entered the race against President Barack Obama and the Republican nominee in 2012. These are significant chunks of the population willing to consider and potentially vote for a non-conventional candidate.
Several factors are likely driving this support for non-conventional presidential candidates.
First, there is overwhelming evidence that the American electorate breaks down into more than just simple liberal or conservative blocs. ABC News analyst Matthew Dowd finds that 51 percent of Americans do not fit into conventional liberal or conservative buckets. Gallup finds that at least 44 percent of Americans do not fit this mold. The Reason-Rupe poll also finds that 44 percent do not fit this conventional division. These numbers suggest that traditional Democratic or Republican presidential candidates may not represent the political views of nearly half of all American voters.
Second, Dowd also explains how Obama’s low presidential approval ratings combined with the GOP presidential candidates’ inability to appeal to Independents may create a ripe environment for a third-party candidate to enter the race.
However, it is important to be clear that as a result of our electoral structure, a third-party candidate is not likely to win a general election. Nevertheless, Americans’ willingness—if not downright eagerness—to support a third-party candidate signals that a non-conventional presidential candidate may be able to win one of the two major parties' presidential nominations. This also might explain how a candidate such as Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), once considered a very remote longshot, is now third in the GOP race for president according to the latest Gallup poll results.
Preferences for the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination as
of August 2011
Based on Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents
Note: Ballot support for both announced and potential GOP
presidential candidates.
Source: Gallup and Gallup
If the Tea Party ran its own candidate against President Obama and the Republican nominee in the 2012 presidential election, would you consider voting for him or her?
Would you consider voting for an independent or third-party candidate for president in 2012?
Generally speaking, would you support or oppose an independent or third-party candidate who described him or herself as “conservative on economic issues” and “liberal on social issues”?
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll shows that Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to defect to a third-party presidential candidate. All of the talk recently (here, here, here, and here) of a third-party candidate entering the race should be welcome news to President Obama's campaign staff.
Independents will play an important role if a third-party candidate decides to enter the race. Among Independent voters, Ron Paul stands out at 38 percent, the highest favorability rating among potential third-party candidates. Moreover, in a three-way match-up with President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, Ron Paul garners 20 percent of Independent votes, the most of any potential third-party candidate.
Click here for full survey results.
Survey Methods
The Reason-Rupe Q3 2011 poll collected a nationally representative sample of 1200 respondents, aged 18 and older from all 50 states and the District of Columbia using live telephone interviews from August 9th-18th 2011. The margin of sampling error for this poll is ± 3 percent. The margin of error for the GOP presidential race numbers is ± 4.79%. Interviews were conducted with respondents using both landline (790) and mobile phones (410). Landline respondents were randomly selected within households based on the adult who had the most recent birthday. Sample was weighted by gender, age, ethnicity, and Census region, based on the most recent US Census data. The sampling frame included landline and mobile phone numbers generated using Random Digit Dialing (RDD) methods and randomly selected numbers from a directory-listed sample. Click here for full methodological details. NSON Opinion Strategy conducted the poll’s fieldwork. View full methodology.
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