Monkeyfister

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Labels: Fallout 3

Nouriel Roubini says that demand destruction for oil has caused investment in new oil exploration projects to disappear, as a result, we will see a major oil crisis just as we are coming out of this Global Depression. He urges investment in AltEnergy projects. Listening to Roubini would be excellent advice for world leaders.

via Reuters

Two leading experts on the financial crisis and its political dimensions — Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer — gave exclusive answers this week to Reuters questions on the key risks for 2009 and beyond, and the countries to watch.

Roubini is professor at the Stern School, New York University and chairman of economic forecasting consultancy RGE Monitor. He is widely credited as one of the few leading economists to forecast the onset of the crisis and its implications.

... Where is the oil price going in 2009, and what will be the political and social consequences?

... Roubini - In the short run, the demand destruction in the global demand for oil will keep prices low and hurt a bunch of unstable petro-states. These petro-states should become less aggressive facing fiscal and financial pressures; but some may be tempted to convert the domestic anger triggered by economic malaise into an aggressive foreign policy stance. Over the medium term, oil prices will sharply rise again once the global economy recovers. The return to potential growth will imply rapidly rising demand from urbanizing and industrializing China, India and other emerging markets. Meanwhile, the supply response will be much slower as low prices in the short-run lead to less investment in new capacity. In addition, as peak oil factors take hold, unstable petro-states won’t invest enough in new capacity and even Middle East states will decide it is better to keep more of the limited and finite reserves of oil in the ground for future generations. This suggests the importance — for oil importing countries — to invest in alternative and renewable technologies as a new oil shock looms.

More at the link.


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Labels: Alternative Energy, Davos, Oil, Peak Oil, Roubini

Worth noting. These basics will be getting more expensive in a few weeks. Best to stock-up now.

via The Packer

(Jan. 27, 3:40 p.m.) BELLE GLADE, Fla. — Cold weather damaged most of Belle Glade’s winter green beans and sweet corn.

As growers assessed damage from a series of freezes that struck south Florida growing regions during the overnight hours of Jan. 20-23, buyers should expect far fewer south Florida beans and corn.

“All of our beans were wiped out,” said Bryan Biederman, assistant sales manager for Pioneer Growers Co-op, one of the region’s largest growers of beans and corn. “Any corn we had planted for the month of March has been wiped out. It was truly a setback for our winter program.”

Biederman said Pioneer’s growers were assessing damage Jan. 27 and Jan. 28 before considering possible spring replanting plans.

For corn, Homestead growers normally harvest the bulk of production January through March with Belle Glade ramping up in spring volume in early April, though growers have smaller volumes in the ground for January and February harvests.

Belle Glade and Homestead-area bean growers plant and harvest continuously through the winter.

Initial reports had the freeze causing a 20% loss for Homestead green beans, squash and tomatoes.

Immokalee-area growers reported little damage to bell peppers and squash with damage to beans unknown.

The state’s tomatoes didn’t suffer much damage, said Reggie Brown, manager of the Maitland-based Florida Tomato Committee and executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange.

“There was some spotty damage around depending on the farm and the condition of the crop,” he said Jan. 26. “But all in all, most growers are saying there was less damage than the temperatures would tend to indicate, which is a blessing. They got banged-up but they didn’t get wiped out.”

Meanwhile, for the state’s spring potato crop, damages weren’t as severe as initially believed.

Arnold Mack, president and chief executive officer of Mack Farms Inc., Lake Wales, and vice president of the South Florida Potato Cooperative, said production north of Lake Okeechobee into central Florida suffered the worst damage, ranging from 15%-40%.

He said the freeze may delay the potato crop by a couple of weeks.

Grow a big garden this year. I am still happily eating my green beans from last year, and will have plenty to last me through to the Spring harvest.


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Labels: Food Prices, Food Security

Exactly. If the Republicans don't want the stimulus, then they shouldn't get any. That will surely win them votes in 2010.




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Labels: Collapse Resources, Republicans For Biden, Stimulus

Another fine old tune featured in Fallout 3.

From the Fallout 3 Vault:

Galaxy News Radio (GNR) is the remains from big pre-war company Galaxy News Network.

Run by DJ Three Dog, GNR splits its time between Wasteland News, Survival Advice, and pre-war swing music. Three Dog operates the station as part of the "Good Fight," which he explains later is his attempt to tell inhabitants of the Capital Wasteland how "things really are" and the Enclave's true motives for the future. He also states that the only reason he plays the same few older songs over and over is because these are all the records he's been able to locate in playable condition.

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Is anyone else playing Fallout 3?

This is one of the fantastic old songs featured in the game.



I was hooked on the Fallout series of games when the first Fallout debuted over a decade ago. great stuff. The latest game, Fallout 3 is absolutely stunning in that charming post-apocalyptic way. Best ever. If you're into this sort of thing.


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If September was bad, and December was even worse, then I see March/April as being absolutely, mind-bogglingly disastrous. I expect losses for this quarter to be in the trillions-- between two and five trillion. The DOW will be in the neighborhood of 7000 by mid-April. Another major bank will fold, perhaps BoA, and we're going to start seeing major shopping malls shuttered. The malls that Circuit City anchored for starters.

And then things will start getting bad.

What do you think?


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Labels: Collapse

If the shoe fits-- throw it!

via NY Daily News

Many Iraqis considered it poetic justice when a journalist tossed his shoes at President George W. Bush last month.

Now the bizarre attack has spawned a real life work of art.

A sofa-sized statue of the shoe was unveiled Thursday in Tikrit, the hometown of the former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Baghdad-based artist Laith al-Amari described the fiberglass-and-copper work as a tribute to the pride of the Iraqi people.

The statue is inscribed with a poem honoring Muntadhar al-Zeidi, the Iraqi journalist who stunned the world when he whipped off his loafers and hurled them at Bush during a press conference on Dec. 14.

In the Arab world, even showing someone the sole of a shoe is considered a sign of disrespect.

Al-Zeidi was charged with assaulting a foreign leader, but his lawyer is asking prosecutors to reduce the charges. The trial has been delayed.

More at the link.


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Labels: George Fucking Bush, Iraq

I DO hope that this will come to America soon.

via BBC

Huge crowds have taken to the streets in France to protest over the handling of the economic crisis, causing disruption to rail and air services.

Unions said 2.5m workers had rallied to demand action to protect wages and jobs. Police put the total at 1m.

President Nicolas Sarkozy said concerns over the crisis were legitimate and the government had to listen and act.

He will meet union and business leaders next month to discuss what programme of reforms to follow this year, he said.

Overall, the government estimated that a quarter of the country's public sector workers had joined the action, which was called by eight major French unions. The unions put the figure higher.

A spokesman for the CGT union told AFP that 2.5m people across the country had taken part in the day's protests. French police put the number at just over 1m.

CGT leader Bernard Thibault called on Mr Sarkozy to recognise the gravity of the situation and "reassess his measures" to deal with the economic crisis.

In Paris, police said some 65,000 demonstrators had joined a march from the Place de la Bastille towards the centre of the city.

There were reports of violent outbreaks on the outskirts of the protest as it reached central Paris, with dozens of youths throwing bottles and lighting fires in a main shopping street.

Police in riot gear charged the youths, pushing them back on to the Place de l'Opera where the crowds were gathering, but the situation remained volatile.

There were repeated baton charges, and after fires were lit on some of Paris' best-known boulevards, police used tear gas on the minority of protesters who were violent.

Earlier, some 25,000 to 30,000 people rallied in the city of Lyon, according to organisers and police.

In Marseille, organisers and the authorities disagreed, with the former putting the number of demonstrators at 300,000 but the police estimating 24,000 had taken part.

The protests are against the worsening economic climate in France and at what people believe to be the government's poor handling of the crisis.

Opposition Socialist Party leader Martine Aubry said people were out in the streets "to express what worries them: the fact that they work and yet cannot make ends meet, retired people who just can't make it [financially], the fear of redundancies, and a president of the Republic and a government that just don't want to change policy".

NPR has a really good piece about the general strike, today. I'd say much better than the BBC's article. Give it a listen.


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Labels: Corporate Disobedience, Corporatocracy, France, General Strike, Shut It Down

Most Wall Street workers are making around $290,000. The average New Yorker makes around $56,000.

via Bloomberg

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- More Wall Street employees received bonuses for 2008 than were expecting to in October, though many remained unhappy with them, according to an online poll.

EFinancialCareers.Com said about 79 percent of workers who responded to an online poll this month said they received a bonus for 2008, more than the 66 percent of respondents who expected to get a reward in October. Still, 46 percent said they were dissatisfied with their bonus.

“What it shows is the bonus culture is very deep-set in the securities industry,” said John Benson, founder and chief executive officer of the Web site, a unit of Dice Holdings Inc. “There’s an entitlement culture amongst a number of people in the industry, which I think in the current environment is very misplaced.”

Wall Street’s system of paying year-end bonuses to reward workers is under criticism after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression led to record losses and forced the government to pump taxpayer money into banks. Former Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain has drawn criticism for accelerating bonus payments before the firm’s sale to Bank of America Corp. was completed.

About 900 U.S. users of the financial jobs Web site responded to the survey conducted Jan. 7-12. In October, 1,300 people responded, and 36 percent said then that they anticipated a higher bonus.

Most of the people who said they were unhappy with their bonus, 89 percent, had five years or less experience, the survey found.

The rest of us mostly do honest and productive work, and are happy with a little end-of-year bonus. Not these louts. Poor darlings.


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Labels: Collapse, Wall Street Motherfucking Criminals

This is an ad for iTulip.com, but the numbers are perfectly accurate. The chart reflects dollars loaned to Banks and Financial Institutions. You know, so they can throw fancy parties, keep the fools that created this mess on the payrolls, redecorate their offices, payout exorbitant bonuses to incompetent executives and their lackeys, and to buy super luxury jets.




Nevermind the Lawyers (for now), we need to start with the Bankers.


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Labels: Collapse, Wall Street Motherfucking Criminals

Heh. I thought that Citi's big, expensive jet purchase was a ripper this morning. Getta load of this one:

via Bloomberg

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer saved from collapse by government money after losses on credit-default swaps, offered about $450 million in retention pay to employees of the unit that sold the derivatives, according to two people familiar with the situation.

About 400 workers at the financial products unit may get the money in two installments, said the people, who declined to be named because details of the payments were confidential. The business was responsible for about $34 billion in writedowns since 2007 as the market value of swaps AIG sold to banks plunged amid the subprime mortgage market collapse.

The payments bring to more than $1 billion the amount AIG has committed to keep its employees from leaving. The New York- based insurer in September took a federal bailout to avoid bankruptcy and is selling subsidiaries to repay the government. AIG said the program was disclosed before the government rescue, which is now valued at $150 billion.

“I was extremely disappointed -- but not surprised -- to learn that AIG will be awarding bonuses to the very division that drove the company into the ground,” said Representative Elijah Cummings, a member of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, in an e-mail. AIG shouldn’t be awarding “millions of unmerited dollars to employees while at the same time begging the U.S. government for financial life support.”

Rewarding criminal incompetence with $450 million of our money... THAT just takes it all.


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Labels: Wall Street Motherfucking Criminals

Christ on a pogo stick, was there a financial firm that WASN'T just a giant Ponzi scheme???

via US Daily

CENTRAL ISLIP, New York (Reuters) - The head of a private New York financing firm who was arrested on Monday night has been charged with operating "a classic Ponzi scheme" into which $370 million was invested, U.S. officials said.

Prosecutors charged Nicholas Cosmo, 37, on Tuesday with mail fraud in U.S. District Court in Central Islip on New York's Long Island. If convicted, Cosmo, 37, faces up to 20 years in prison.

"This defendant, who operated a classic Ponzi scheme to enrich himself and his colleagues at the expense of investors, is now in custody and the government's investigation is continuing," U.S. Attorney Benton Campbell in the Eastern District of New York said.

A ponzi scheme is one in which early investors are paid with the money of new clients.

The large amount of money, however, still pales compared with the purported $50 billion fraud masterminded by investment manager Bernard Madoff. Law enforcement officials said they expect to uncover more schemes as the U.S. financial industry declines.

Cosmo's Agape World Inc and Agape Merchant Advance LLC said they made commercial bridge loans and promised interest rate returns as high as 48 percent to 80 percent a year, prosecutors said in a statement.

After spending the night in custody, Cosmo was unshaven when he appeared in court in a black winter coat Tuesday morning. He was ordered held until Thursday, when his lawyers will respond to the criminal complaint and arguments will be heard on whether or not Cosmo is granted bail.

Prosecutors argued that he was a flight risk and "an economic danger to the community." His attorney Steven Feldman said his client was not a flight risk because he had ties to the community and three children.

Feldman declined to comment to reporters after the hearing, which was attended by investors and Cosmo's family.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Grace Cucchissi told U.S. Magistrate Judge E. Thomas Boyle that $1.5 million had been seized so far in searches of the firms' offices, but investigators were unsure whether Cosmo had money elsewhere.

Give 'em all fair trials before hanging them.


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Labels: Wall Street Motherfucking Criminals, Wall Street Ponzi

Finally.

via WWSB

TAMPA, FL. - Sarasota hedge fund manager Arthur Nadel turned himself into authorities at 9:45 a.m. Tuesday.

According to Agent David Couvertier with the FBI, Nadel, accompanied by two attorneys, was place under arrest at the FBI field office in Tampa.

Nadel, head of Scoop Management, was overseeing six hedge funds valued at more than $300 million. He is accused of operating an investment scheme much like the ponzi scheme connected to investor Bernie Madoff.

FBI Tampa spokesman, David Couvertier tells CNN: "He has been processed and taken to the u.s. marshal's service facility in tampa, and is awaiting his first appearance before a u.s. federal magistrate. There is a criminal complaint against Mr. nadel which has not yet been unsealed", said Couvertier.

Arthur Nadel's attorney, Barry Cohen, said his client was not violent and that he should be released following a hearing Tuesday afternoon in Tampa. The attorney argued Nadel has been suffering from emotional problems and needed treatment.

But a federal judge ordered him held, at least until Friday. The government had asked for more time to prepare for a bail hearing, which was scheduled for then.

Nadel was chained at the waist and wrists.

More at the link.



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Labels: Wall Street Motherfucking Criminals

Continued drought in Central Valley is forcing farmers to keep fields fallow, while the fields turn into dustbowls.


via CBC/AssPress

Consumers may pay more for spring lettuce and summer melons in grocery stores now that California farmers have started abandoning their fields in response to a crippling drought.

California's sweeping Central Valley grows most of the fruits and vegetables in the United States in normal years, but this winter thousands of hectares are turning to dust as the state hurtles into the worst drought in nearly two decades.

Federal officials' recent announcement that the water supply they pump through the nation's largest farm state would drop further was enough to move John (Dusty) Giacone to forego growing vegetables so he can save his share to drip-irrigate 400 hectares of almond trees.

"Taking water from a farmer is like taking a pipe from a plumber," said Giacone, a fourth-generation farmer in the tiny community of Mendota. "How do you conduct business?"

The giants of California agribusiness are the biggest economic engine in the valley, which produces every cantaloupe on store shelves in summer months, and the bulk of the nation's lettuce crop each spring and fall.

This year, officials in Fresno County predict farmers will only grow around 2,400 hectares of lettuce, roughly half the area devoted to growing greens in 2005.

That alone could cause a slight bump in consumer prices, unless lettuce companies can make up for the shortage by growing in areas with an abundant water supply, or the cost of cooling, packaging and shipping the crop suddenly goes down, experts say.

"Lettuce comes off the field and goes straight into the market, and if there's nothing coming off the field then the marketing chain goes dry, and prices go up," said Gary Lucier, an agricultural economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.

More at the link.

Get those seed orders in.


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Labels: BigAgra, California Economy, Drought, Factory Farming, Unsustainable farming

It's Monday, and time for the weekly Kunstler. This week, Mr. Kunstler attempts to call attention to the real needs of a stimulus plan, that the Democrats are foolishly allowing the Republicans to derail (literally), and to render ineffective through "compromise." Really, all the Repukes ever want is a shitload of tax cuts for their rich buddies. Memoes circulated by Kenneth Blackstone, and Congressional GOP "leadership" have stated that it is important for 2010 GOP electability to scuttle any Democratic stimulus bill that might actually work. That is pretty fucking cynical, and puts elections before country in the true GOP style. Why Harry and Nancy are even tolerating it is well, it's not beyond me, I'm just pissed about it.

I personally believe that the Democrats have tried long enough to allow Republican input. It is time to cram a real, effective stimulus package through the process, and Mr. Kunstler's three biggies should be a part of that process. Put National Healthcare in at item #4, and we'll have something to start.

via Kunstler.com

Just as Mr. Obama has danced into the oval office, we've arrived at a moment when a lot of people have a hard time imagining the future. This includes especially the mainstream media, which has reached a state of zombification parallel to that of the banks. But even in the mighty blogosphere, with its thousands of voices unconstrained by craven advertisers or pandering managing editors, the view forward dims as a dark and ominous fog rolls over the landscape of possibilities.

For at least a year several story-lines have been slugging it out inconclusively for supremacy of the Web-waves. The main event has been the Deflationists versus the Inflationists. The first group basically says that so much "money" is being welshed out of existence that it dwarfs the new "money" being shoveled into existence in the form of bail-outs, tarps, and office re-decoration stipends. The Deflationists see the tattered remnants of the consumer credit economy auguring ever deeper into a hole until it is buried so far down that all the back-hoes ever sold will not be able to dig it out. The competing Inflationists say that the massive truckloads of shoveled-in "money" will soon overtake vanishing "wealth" and, in the process, make the US dollar worthless.

Some of us see both outcomes in sequence: the deflationary "work out" of bad debt currently underway -- of loans that will never be paid back, of acronymic paper securities revealed as frauds, of "non-performing" contracts entering the swamps of foreclosure, of banks pretending to still exist, of hallucinated "wealth" rushing into the cosmic worm-hole of oblivion -- can only go for so long before everyone who can go broke will go broke. Then, just as we find ourselves a nation of empty pockets, the tsunami of shoveled-in "money" designed to "reboot the consumer" (created not from productive activity but just printed recklessly), will start churning through the "economy," chasing products and commodities that became scarce during the deflationary phase -- and the result is hyper-inflation, the eraser of debt, destroyer of fortunes, and suicide pill of feckless governments.

I guess the basic difference is that the hardcore Deflationists seem to think that their process can go on forever. The society just gets poorer and poorer until we're back at something like a scene out of Pieter Bruegel the Elder. The Inflationists see a fork in the road leading to more overt destruction, especially political turmoil as a lot of negative emotion joins the work-out orgy and overwhelms government.

But in this moment, the week after a new president's inauguration, the deadly fog has rolled in and absolutely everyone dreads what lurks on the other side of it, without being able to discern the path through it. For example, the "bail-out fatigue" being reported suggests that congress may just call a halt to money-shoveling. Where would that leave Mr. Obama's urgent call for "stimulus?" Not to mention further TARP injections for redecorating bank offices.

I've been skeptical of the "stimulus" as sketched out so far, aimed at refurbishing the infrastructure of Happy Motoring. To me, this is the epitome of a campaign to sustain the unsustainable -- since car-dependency is absolutely the last thing we need to shore up and promote. I haven't heard any talk so far about promoting walkable communities, or any meaningful plan to get serious about fixing passenger rail and integral public transit. Has Mr. Obama's circle lost sight of the fact that we import more than two-thirds of the oil we use, even during the current price hiatus? Or have they forgotten how vulnerable this leaves us to the slightest geopolitical spasm in such stable oil-exporting nations as Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, Libya, Algeria, Columbia, Iran, and the Middle East states? And we're going to rescue ourselves by driving cars?

I know it is difficult for Americans at every level to imagine a different way-of-life, but we'd better start tuning up our imaginations, because endless motoring is not our destiny anymore. The message has not moved from the grassroots up, and so at this perilous stage the message had better come from the top down. Mr. Obama needs to go on TV and tell the American public that were done cruisin' for burgers. He could do that by drastically reviving his stimulus proposal as it currently stands.

Putting aside whether this "stimulus" represents reckless money-printing in an insolvent society, let's just take it at face-value and ask where the "money" might be better directed:

* We have to rehabilitate thousands of downtowns all over the nation to accommodate the new re-scaled edition of local and regional trade that will follow the death of national chain-store retail of the WalMart ilk. Reactivated town centers and Main Streets are indispensable features of walkable communities. The Congress for the New Urbanism (CNU.org) ought to be consulted on the procedures for accomplishing this and for rehabilitating the traditional neighborhoods connected to our Main Streets.

* We have to reform food production (a.k.a. "farming"). Petro-dependent agri-biz will go the same way as the chain stores. Its equations will fail, especially in a credit-strapped society. That piece of the picture is so dire right now, as we prepare for the planting season, that many crops may not be put in for lack of front-money. This portends, at least, much higher food prices at the end of the year, if not outright scarcities and shortages. And the new government wants to gold-plate highway off-ramps instead? Earth to Rahm Emanuel: screw your head back on.

* As mentioned above, we have to get passenger rail going again because the airlines are going to die the next time there is an uptick in oil prices, or a spot shortage of oil. Let's not be too grandiose and attempt to build expensive high-speed or mag-lev networks -- certainly not right now -- because they require entirely new track systems. Let's fix those regular tracks already out there, rusting in the rain, or temporarily replaced by bike trails.

Those are three biggies for the moment and enough to keep this society busy for a couple of years. But more to the point of this blog, observers of all stripes are having trouble imagining any way out of our multiple predicaments. All the possible actions tried so far have have seemed absurd.

More at the link.


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Labels: James Kunstler

Woot WOO! A new Nephew!

I am waiting for pictures.

The little fella wasn't due until the end of February, but, I guess he wanted out sooner. He's a healthy 7 pounds- 10 ounces, and 21" long. Pretty big, I think, for a month early.

My Sister-In-Law says she named him after me, partly, and partly after her father. His name is Anthony Nikolai. My Sister-In-Law is from Ukraine. My brother is from Mars-- the mean side of Mars. He and I don't get along very well. But, I am very proud of both of them, and am very happy to welcome a new member of the family into the world!



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Labels: My Life As It Is

Yesterday, my friends and I started work on building a small forge.

My friend, Ashley, makes incredible knives, and we decided to try and make folded, "Damascus-style" steel.

Another friend of ours, Hap, runs a large Emu ranch, and was cleaning up a bunch of metal that he had lying around. He asked us if we needed any before he ground it all up in the metal grinder. We stopped by, and found a 2'x2'x2' sort of steel box with 3/4" walls, a park-style barbecue (without the pipe stand or grill), and a good bunch of bar-stock iron of different types, and that's when we came up with the plan.

Once home, we dug a big hole, large enough to sink the box thingy. We cut a hole in the side of the barbecue, and inverted the whole thing over the fire box. Through the hole, we welded a piece of Schedule-40 pipe to which, we attached some flexible metal tubing, to attach to our air blower. We then banked dirt around the edges of the whole thing, and put some field stones around it to help retain heat, as well as to protect us from getting accidentally burned, as the whole thing is set into the ground. We'll be able to pull the top off to pull out ashes from the fire pit. From the outside, it just looks like a foot-high mound of dirt and rocks. The business side is just a 12" high by 2' wide rectangular opening.

We had enough daylight to attempt one quick trial. we loaded up the pit with chunks of pine, to get a fire started, and then began feeding oak into it. We turned the blower on it to speed the coal-making process. Forty-five minutes later, we were able to start.

We had two small pieces of 1/8" stock, and through trial and error, we finally got the right amount of air into the fire chamber, and using a 5-pound hammer and an anvil, we actually managed to fuse the two pieces together. The steel glowed a bright yellowish white-- almost translucent-- before the fusing would take place. One more heating, and we were able to put a 90-degree bend on the fused steel. Next weekend, perhaps, we'll be able to get together, and try all the various quenching techniques.

It's going to take a lot of effort, and practice, but, I do believe it will work to make folded steel for knife blades. Ashley will now be able to put any number of different tempers on his blades, with ease. I am certain that this setup would easily smelt down small amounts of silver, or other softer metals.


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Labels: Primitive Skills

Oh, yeah... I have this blog thingy.




Actually, went through a few days of not being able to look at a monitor. The (seemingly) annual January seizure cluster.



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