Sorry, you're just wrong

Sorry, John McIntire, but you're just wrong.

You wrote:

PREMATURE I-TOLD-YOU-SO TO SESTAKERS

What about PA?

Let me be the first to issue a big fat Joe Sestak "I TOLD YOU SO."

This is a weird year. People want candidates who appear to be "independent," whatever that means.

Arlen Specter was DEFINITELY beholden to NO ONE. Many thought he was a weasel as a result. But it's why he would have been a better candidate.

And now, the guy who WAS the Tea Party before there was a party or any caffeinated brown water to sip, Pat Toomey of the Club for Growth (a MAJOR right wing nutbag "think" tank), is going to be a U.S. Senator.
Plus he's a jug-eared varmint to boot.

Way to go progressives. Heckuva job. You got your wish. And now you've put another nutbag in Capitol Hill. Another tax-cuts-for-the-rich nutbag. And this one can actually think and talk, which could make him even more dangerous.
I know, I know. It all depends on Philly turnout. Blah, blah, blah.

Joe Sestak is toast.

Believe me, if Sestak pulls out a miracle tomorrow, I'll happily look like a fool.

If Arlen was the Democratic candidate for Senate, he'd be down by at least 20 points.

This is a "throw the bums out" year. How could Specter -- who's been in public office for 45 years -- possibly have won in 2010?

Where's his base?

Democrats? No way. They already rejected him in the primary and as pretty much every past primary has shown, there simply aren't enough progressives to make a huge dent there -- rank and file Dems tossed him out.

Republicans? You got to be kidding! Those left in that party have moved ever more right. Republicans would have been running the exact same ads against Specter that they are now running against Sestak. Plus there's the whole "turncoat" factor. They certainly would be painting him as a man you could not trust.

So that leaves Independents. You think they'd have seen him as independent and "DEFINITELY beholden to NO ONE"? Nope. They'd see him as the worst kind of hack -- an opportunist who'd do anything to save his political hide (which is why the Sestak primary ad which had the clip of Arlen saying, “my change in party will enable me to be reelected” was so damn effective and which is why the Republicans would have been running that same clip in their ads).

There's simply no way that Specter would be doing better now than Sestak.

That said, despite your huge blind spot soft spot for Arlen, I know the rest of your analysis on the radio today will be spot on and you always bring the funny so everyone who can should listen to you on The Union Edge. Via MacYapper:

I'll be on the radio Tuesday supplying wrist slitting election analysis on 660 AM in Pittsburgh on the Union Edge radio show with Charles Showwalter at 2pm.
Also streamed live at www.WFRNLive.com

So How Conservative IS Pat Toomey?

Via Joe Sestak's website, I found this.

As it's Sestak's idea of what Pat Toomey's website should be, we can assume a certain level of political rhetoric going on. But on the first page there was a link that led here:

A kindly reader forwarded this 2004 piece in The American Spectator musing on the U.S. Senate race in PA back then, between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey, who’s currently running against Joe Sestak for that same seat. You will be amused to find out that, back in ’04, that then-senator Rick Santorum actually backed Specter, and told “everyone within earshot that the primary challenger, Rep. Pat Toomey, is ‘too conservative for Pennsylvania.’” [emphasis added.]

Say it ain't so, Rick!

It's so. It a piece written during the Toomey/Specter primary race way back in 2004, our Lil Ricky was defending Arlen Specter (who was then the Republican Incumbent) against a challenge from the right - Pat Toomey. Colin McNickle elaborated Rick's conundrum back then. He had to support Specter because he would have lost his Senate ranking (no. 3 at the time, if I am not mistaken) if he did.

That aside, so how conservative IS Pat Toomey? From RealClearPolitics:

Toomey's lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union is 97%; Santorum's is just 88%.

Pat Toomey - More conservative than Rick Santorum.

AP calls it for Joe Sestak!!!!

According to MSNBC:

AP CALLS IT FOR JOE SESTAK!


(Oh, yeah -- called it for Onorato a while back.)

Specter: "...you must be smoking dutch cleanser"

Witness Specter's "complete the danged fence"/things-your-great-grandpa-would-say moment:

Brother, can you spare a campaign slogan?

It's not too late to help out Snarlin' Arlen:

#SpecterCampaign Slogans

Samples:

tlw3: Are you better off than you were four score and seven years ago?

PaulaInTulsaOK: I Have A Coupon for Another Term!

PRTandWiseline: What Do You Want Me to Stand For Today?

White House Preparing for Specter Loss

Via The Hill:

CBS's Bob Schieffer says the White House is preparing for an Arlen Specter loss in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

"I have been told on background and so forth that the White House is preparing for a Specter loss here, and the White House doesn't want to be associated with that," Schieffer told a local CBS affiliate. (Video on the top right).

More On Specter's Anti-Sestak Ads

From Greg Sargent at the Washington Post:

So it's come to this: In a bid for conservative and rural Pennsylvania Dems, Arlen Specter is now using targeted ads to attack Joe Sestak for getting an "F" rating from the National Rifle Association.

In a targeted way, Specter also seems to be touting his vote against the assault weapons ban -- a vote he took as a Republican. One wonders how this ad would play among urban Dems in Philadelphia -- if they ever were to hear about it.

Specter's assault on Sestak can be viewed in a Web ad on the site of the Washington Observer-Reporter, a paper in western Pennsylvania that presumably isn't widely read in Philly...[emphasis added.]

Talkingpointsmemo has this:

The ads are running on the websites of local papers in rural Pennsylvania, away from the eyes of the key Democratic voters in the cities that might not find the ads a persuasive message for Specter.

And:

What's more, Sestak's campaign is distributing a copy of another web ad they say Republicans used in 2008 against President Obama that also focused on the "F" rating from the NRA. The Sestak campaign calls the two web ads "strikingly similar."

So one wonders whether Senator Specter be telling Pennsylvania's Non-Philly and Non-Pittsburgh democrats that:

• Congressman Sestak is bad because the NRA gave him an F
• President Obama is bad because the NRA gave him an F

I mean, one should be consistent and all.

The Scorecard: Sestak Vs. Specter

Joe Sestak has a new ad up comparing his record on the issues vs. how Republican Democrat Whatever Arlen Specter has voted.

As much as Dan Onorato's ads -- which dub him "The Democrat" in a race against three other Democrats in the gubernatorial primary -- bug me, Sestak actually is "The Democrat" when it comes to his party-as-a-convenience opponent in the US Senate Democratic primary race.

Here's the ad:


Here's a more lengthy, detailed scorecard from Sestak's website.

And, for all those women I know who have voted for Specter over the years because, for a Republican, he was decent on choice, NARAL and NOW have both endorsed Joe because he's better.

Specter Thanks "Allegheny County Republicans" at Dem Event

The PA Democratic primary for US Senate in a nutshell:

Via KDKA:

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) ― One week before next Tuesday's primary election, Republican-turned Democrat U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter appeared before Allegheny County Democrats in Pittsburgh.

And, in a slip of the tongue, Specter thanked "Allegheny County Republicans" for supporting him.

Later, talking to reporters, Specter was asked about the gaffe.

"I think it's not unusual for anybody to misspeak from time to time," he quipped. "I'm not a television commentator. I'm not as smooth as you guys."

According to the video at the link, he thanked Republicans twice.

Hey! Here's an idea: If you're a Democrat, vote for a Democrat!

Specter Obama/Bush Mashup

TPM has a mashup of Specter's Republican 2004 Bush ad and his Democratic 2010 Obama ad.


(Don't call it a comeback! Call it a remix.)

Specter Ads: Déjà vu all over again

Talking Points Memo remarks on two remarably similar Arlen Specter ads:

Indoor rally? Check. Blue curtain backdrop? Check? U.S. and Pennsylvania flags in the background? Check. A President bounding on to the stage? Check.

See for yourself:

Bush 2004


Obama 2010

(h/t to Early Returns)

Everyone Notices Sestak Pulling Ahead of Specter

While everyone is noticing that Joe Sestak is polling ahead of Arlen Specter (Talking Points Memo, Open Left, Plum Line, Pgh City Paper) and that Specter has a Kagan problem (AP, The Fix, Think Progress, P-G's Early Returns), Wonkette wins for funniest graphic:

Sestak Tied With Specter In New Poll

A new poll by Muhlenberg College/Morning Call has Joe Sestak tied with Arlen Specter at 43% in the Democratic primary for US Senate.

Incumbent Specter started out with huge lead but Sestak has been rapidly rising in the polls. Party-switcher Specter had the backing of President Obama and the Party bosses and now some are freaking out.

Pennsylvania Dem chairman T.J. Rooney has called a Sestak win "cataclysmic," but I still agree with Pittsburgh City Paper's Chris Potter long ago (well, long in terms of politics) prediction:

So I gotta think that Sestak could hold his own against Toomey, Specter, or anyone else. He's already had lots of practice: Sestak noted that regularly mixes it up on FOX News and other such forums.

But that, of course, only raises the real problem he faces this year: Republicans like Monica Douglas know how dangerous Sestak can be. Democrats, though, don't watch FOX.

Sestak will be in town today, by the way:

WHAT:
Congressman Joe Sestak and Pittsburgh Residents Shine a Light on Specter’s 30 Years of Failed Promises, Strategizes for Next 30 Years

WHEN:
Friday, May 7 at 12:30PM

WHERE:
Hill House Association, Conference Rm A
1835 Centre Ave
Pittsburgh, PA 15219

RSVP on Facebook or to Info@JoeSestak.com

Sestak Hits Specter Hard With New Ad

Via PA2010:

It’s the campaign ad everyone knew was coming—and it was only a matter of time.

The latest TV spot by Democrat Joe Sestak’s Senate campaign highlights former President George W. Bush’s support for Senator Arlen Specter during the 2004 campaign, as well Specter’s support for vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin in 2008. It also twice plays a clip of Specter saying that “my change in party will enable me to be reelected.”

I'm actually seeing it right now on MSNBC as I'm blogging. LOL. You can watch it too:


UPDATE: And, just this moment I received in an email from the Sestak campaign which states:

"This election is about who we can count on to represent our values on the day after the election and for the next six years. Many Democrats are skeptical of why Arlen Specter switched parties after enthusiastically touting the endorsement of President Bush. But there is no way Senator Specter can make his motives more clear than he does in his own words."

The email goes on to remind, among other things, that:

'...just 12 days before switching parties:'

"I am a Republican and I am going to run on the Republican ticket in the Republican primary."
http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/04/arlen-specter-unfiltered.html

'He even said he still thought John McCain and Sarah Palin "were the better choice" -- more than three months after switching parties' [Hardball, MSNBC, 08/04/09]: http://therealspecter2010.com/goingrogue

Arlen Specter TV Ad

Check it out!


OK, it's an oldie, but a goodie (if you're Joe Sestak).

Sestak fires back

Until today, we've just had Rep. Joe Sestak's introductory ad, but he's firing back at some of Sen. Arlen Specter's (PA - RD) negative ads -- specifically the one that criticize Sestak's military service. One might call Specter's ads a study in "swiftboating."

Here's Sestak's new ad:


And, here's the text of a speech which Sestak delivered at American University last night.

Yesterday was the one-year anniversary of the day when Specter switched parties from Republican to Democrat. Curiously, Specter marked the occasion by stating:

"Well, I probably shouldn't say this," Specter told Colby Itkowitz of the Allentown Morning Call. "But I have thought from time to time that I might have helped the country more if I'd stayed a Republican."

More On Arlen's Attack Ad

Yesterday the OPJ wrote about a blogpost at Potter's Slag Heap.

Potter's post described a new attack ad by Arlen Specter:

Not for nothing is Arlen Specter known as a fierce campaigner. This morning, I caught his latest attack ad (viewable here) on Democratic rival Joe Sestak.

The ad refers to Sestak as "No-Show Joe," citing some 127 votes he's missed in Congress. (Team Specter has even helpfully crafted a Web site on the matter.) It also attacks Sestak at the very heart of his campaign -- by challenging his military service.

Specter's ad notes that Sestak, a three-star admiral in the U.S. Navy, was removed from a command post for creating a "poor command climate."

It is a pretty sleazy attack, if you ask me.

In any event, with a little digging, we find a little more to this story. From a blog at the NYTimes, we find a link to this piece at the Philadelphia Inquirer where we read:

In 2001, as a two-star admiral, he was assigned by his mentor Adm. Vern Clark, the top officer in the Navy at the time, to revamp the Navy for the future. Clark and Sestak believed in a more nimble, sleeker Navy to fight terrorism. Sestak scoured the budgets and proposed deep cuts to the fleet, using computer technology to link fewer ships more effectively.

The plans struck fear around the E-Ring, where Sestak was also earning a reputation for driving his 100-member planning staff hard. He would show up sometimes at 4 a.m. and stay until 9 or 10 p.m. He was infamous for calling staff meetings at 9 p.m. on Friday and demanding that everyone return by 10 a.m. Saturday.

In July 2005, Adm. Mike Mullen, now Obama's Joint Chiefs chairman, took over as the chief of naval operations and, on his first day, relieved Sestak of his post, citing "poor command climate."

Clark, in an interview, said he now worries he did not do enough to protect his protege.

"He did what I asked him to do; I wanted straight talk, and this put him in the crosshairs," Clark said. "People are going to say what they want to say, but he challenged people who did not want to be challenged. The guy is courageous, a patriot's patriot."

Indeed, the Navy is slowly moving toward a smaller fleet, as Clark and Sestak envisioned.

That's what was meant by "poor command climate" I guess.

Arlen's a sleaze - there, I said it.

Specter gets ugly (no surprise here)

And the negative campaigning is on!

Chris Potter @ Slag Heap posts on Arlen Specter's new TV ad (view here) on air now:

The ad refers to Sestak as "No-Show Joe," citing some 127 votes he's missed in Congress. (Team Specter has even helpfully crafted a Web site on the matter.) It also attacks Sestak at the very heart of his campaign -- by challenging his military service.

Meanwhile, Sestak may finally start airing ads today according to PoliticsPA with this being the first one:


If you'd like to judge Sestak for yourself, he's back in town at today's Equal Pay Rally (details here).

Joe Sestak breaks on through to the other side

Joe Sestak breaks on through to the other side
With the Pennsylvania primary election for U.S. Senate just a month away, the news is all good for challenger Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and all bad for incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R D).

First, Lil Ricky Santorum sucker punched Arlen by declaring that he had endorsed him over Toomey in 2004 because he made a deal with the then Republican Specter:

"The reason I endorsed Arlen Specter is because we were going to have two Supreme Court nominees coming up. I got a commitment from Arlen Specter that no matter who George W. Bush would nominate, he would support that nominee."

Specter, of course, denied this and Sestak pounced on the news:

"Rick Santorum’s stunning confirmation that Arlen Specter sold his influence as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee for a political endorsement should be extremely troubling to Pennsylvanians," the Democratic challenger said. "There are few people in this nation who have a greater impact on the lives of the American people than the men and women who serve lifetime appointments on the Supreme Court.

"For Arlen Specter to take his marching orders from Rick Santorum and George W. Bush and pledge to support any nominee — no matter how partisan, no matter how unqualified — in order to win an election is a stunning betrayal of his duty as a public servant," he continued. "This is one of the most glaring of the many red flags in Specter’s record that he is willing to put his own political survival over his principles and his duty to the people."

Next, WAPO's The Fix listed the reasons why the conventional wisdom that Arlen has the race all tied up could be wrong. Theses include Sestak's sizable war chest, a campaign strategy that calls for a blitz in the last month, and the belief that Specter has peaked and Sestak has plenty of room to grow.

And just in, via PA2010, a new poll has Sestak catching up to Specter:

The Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic primary voters showed Sestak trailing Specter by a statistically insignificant two points, 44 percent to 42 percent. Ten percent of voters are still undecided, according to the poll.

At first glance, the survey appears to be something of a statistical outlier. A Rasmussen poll with a similar sample just one month ago found Sestak down 11 points, and little has transpired since then that would account for such a change. Neither candidate had aired TV ads when the poll was conducted. However, the telephone survey was taken on Monday, just as former Senator Rick Santorum’s accusation that he endorsed Specter in 2004 because Specter promised to back Bush administration judicial nominees was at its peak in the news cycle.

So is Arlen feeling the heat? Well, he did just start broadcasting a series of three TV ads which focus on blue collar workers. You can view them here.

Some Shocking Trib Facts

We are nothing if not fair and balanced here at 2PJ.

And so with trembling lip and sweaty palm I write the following words:

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review gets one right.

It's in this week's Whispters column:

A DEM IN SHEEP'S CLOTHING. It's being accurately billed as Arlen Specter's favorite fib.

Pennsylvania's senior senator has been telling folks on the campaign trail that even before he switched political parties from Republican to Democrat last year, he voted more often with the Dems than with the GOP.

But that's not true, as the Pa2010 Web site's Dan Hirschhorn pointed out.

While Specter did occasionally vote with those across the aisle, most measures of his voting record as a Republican put his GOP loyalty at 60 to 65 percent. As Hirschhorn succinctly noted, that's exactly what you'd expect from a centrist.

Here's Dan's piece on the fibbing:

As [Specter] courts Democrats for his first primary race in the party, he often says that, even as a Republican, he voted more often with Democrats than with the GOP. I’ve heard him say this at least three times in the last month or so.

It’s a nice sound bite. But it’s not true.

The metrics vary depending on who’s doing the counting, but by no measure did he ever come close to voting more with Democrats than with Republicans when he was still on that side of the aisle. Over the last decade or so, most measures have his party-loyalty record somewhere in the 60-65 percent range—exactly what you’d expect from a centrist. Naturally, he got guff for not voting with Republicans enough back in the 2004 primary.

Fair's fair and a broken watch is right twice a day.