Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty could not survive a poor third-place showing in the Ames straw pool or the entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry into the race -- but if those were the immediate causes of his collapse, the root causes had been evident for quite some time: anemic fundraising, a weak campaigner, and a guy who couldn't throw enough red meat to GOP primary voters.

The Mitt Romney camp will point out over and over that he didn't compete in Iowa so don't read too much into the Ames results. But the reason he didn't compete was because trying to win and failing spectacularly was considered more damaging than preemptively conceding. The bottom line is Romney threw in the towel because he knew he was doomed.

A lot of the analysis (a generous term considering the peculiar nature of this straw poll) will focus on how damaging a third place finish is to Tim Pawlenty, whose early strategy -- before Bachmann entered the race -- had been to dominate his neighboring Iowa and carry that momentum into South Carolina. But Romney's prospects here are so dim that he just bailed altogether.

I still have trouble seeing what the Romney strategy is. Concede Iowa. Win in neighboring New Hampshire which everyone will discount. And then win in uber-conservative South Carolina? It never has added up.

Looks like Michele Bachmann has prevailed in the Ames straw poll, an early though not necessarily determinative assessment of each campaign's organizational abilities.

Here's the initial breakdown: Bachmann 28.55%, Paul 27.65%, Pawlenty 13.57%.

No surprise that Ron Paul did so well. And no surprise to anyone who's been following the Iowa race closely that Bachmann won -- but step back for a minute and consider how mind-blowing it would have been even six months ago, let alone a year or two back, to think of Michele Bachmann as a major contender for the GOP nomination, arguably the frontrunner now in Iowa. It truly boggles.

The much-hyped, over-covered, largely meaningless, and poorly predictive Ames straw poll results should be coming in around 6 p.m. ET. We'll have 'em for you, along with a pinch of salt.

As you know, Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota (2003-2011), has gone from top tier candidate in the Republican nomination battle to just holding on for dear life with polls in many states that make him indistinguishable from the Santorums and McCotters and Cains of the field. But remember, Pawlenty's strategy in recent months is one that allows for these awful numbers. At least for a while.

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All eyes are on Ames today. Except all the eyes on Rick Perry's announcement in the aptly picked state of South Carolina. But wherever you point your eyes we're now getting into the first real round of winnowing in the Republican presidential field. And absent some surprising development, what it looks like is that we have three real candidates in the race. Two plausible nominees, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry (though I think the jury's more out on Perry than we might know), and one favorite of the fire-breathers, Michele Bachmann, who would appear to stand zero chance of securing the nomination (let alone the presidency) but could pull more than enough votes to play a pivotal role in the unfolding primary process and debate.

But watching Fox News's coverage today reminded me of another primary which may be as important as New Hampshire or South Carolina in the GOP nominating process: the Murdoch primary.

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Well, it's now officially official: Perry's in.

Here's an article by TPM's Benjy Sarlin that captures the swagger of the Ames-upstaging launch, and highlights some issues that could trip up the Texas Governor.

Meanwhile, follow the highlights from the colorful carnival that is the Ames Straw Poll via our livewire.

Just in case there were any doubts over whether Rick Perry was definitely going to declare his candidacy today, this new website should put them to rest:

http://www.rickperry.org/news/why-im-running

Meanwhile, watch his launch speech live, here.

It's not exactly original to observe that this week feels like the start of 2012. But, original or not, today it feels well and truly upon us.

First, there's the drama of Iowa's Ames Straw poll. The results from that rather Tocquevillian affair should start coming in at around 6pm Eastern. You'll be able to follow the developments throughout the day via our livewire.

Second, Texas Governor Rick Perry is ready to end his months-long tease and get in the race for real. His speech is expected around 1pm Eastern and you can watch it live here.

Lastly, if Perry doesn't manage to oust GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney then the Dems have provided a timely little attack ad that gives a pretty clear preview of what we can expect on our TV screens throughout much of next year.

Standard and Poor's says GOPers dismissing default as no big deal contributed to its decision to downgrade U.S. debt. Republicans now claim to have said no such thing. Which virtually demands that we publish a list of who said it, when they said it, and where they said it. Behold the list.

Did we skip anybody? If so, let us know. Shoot us the quote and a link to where it was reported. Tip line is at the top right of this page.

TPM Reader DM responds to the 11th Circuit's decision:

I'm a lawyer. It's hard to explain just how outside the mainstream this kind result would have been just 5-10 years ago.

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Not to get too into the legal weeds, but worth remembering that the ruling by 11th Circuit on the constitutionality of the health insurance mandate was by a three-judge panel of the court. Three-judge panels get the first and usually only stab at most cases on appeal. But in legally and politically significant cases, the entire appeals court may decide to hear the case en banc. The en banc decision trumps the three-judge panel. So this may not be the last word on the matter from the 11th Circuit.

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The 11th Circuit didn't completely uphold the trial court's decision. It reversed the trial court ruling that, because there was no severability clause in the health care reform law, the unconstitutionality of the mandate rendered the entire law unconstitutional and unenforceable. In other words, the 11th Circuit ruled that the rest of the law still stands. Not a minor issue at all and one worth noting.

The 11th Circuit's ruling that the health insurance mandate is unconstitutional is important in its own right, but the significance of it is amplified because we now have the 11th Circuit at odds with the 6th Circuit on this issue.

Conflicting legal authority among the federal appeals courts is an additional basis -- some might say justification -- for the Supreme Court to agree to hear a case. I don't think there was much doubt the health care reform law would end up before the Supreme Court, but today's ruling pretty much removes any remaining doubt.

The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals declares the insurance mandate in the health care reform law unconstitutional. More soon ...

Yesterday a member of the S&P; credit rating board said for the first time that politicians suggesting a temporary US default might not be so bad was a key reason in itself for the S&P;'s downgrade of US debt. In response congressional Republicans are today pressing the point that they never doubted the seriousness of the US going into default. And some other publications are accepting that claim at face value. But there are actually numerous examples of top congressional Republicans openly doubting whether a temporary US default would really be such a big deal.

Wherein Washington gets the vapors over the President planning to throw a few elbows to win re-election.

Addendum: As silly as the mock outrage is, the President's re-election campaign is letting it get the best of them.

Anti-gay marriage pol muddles his message by offering to pay an 18 year old boy he met on craigslist $80 for a "really good time."

Gallup is out with their first congressional generic ballot of the season. And it shows the Dems back in a solid if not commanding lead over congressional Republicans.

Here's the chart for the Gallup poll only going back to November 2009 ...

One thing I've learned from all the reader email we've gotten on this subject this morning is how much UPS for instance relies on the US Postal Service for final delivery of many packages.

TPM Reader DW explains ...

I work in online retail, so I know quite a bit about sending packages through different carriers.

Here's some things you might not know...

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