The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20111007193549/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2011-07-21_13-34-05.php
2012 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART
July 21, 2011
In new districts with no incumbent, the Cook Political Report's policy is to list the "incumbent party" according to the new district's Partisan Voter Index score.
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Democrats currently have 22 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
Republicans currently have 27 seats listed as Lean or Toss Up.
NOTE: As a result of decennial reapportionment and redistricting before 2012, many districts listed will undergo minor or major alterations, several will be eliminated, and several new districts have yet to be drawn. Our current 2012 House ratings reflect these considerations, but ratings are subject to dramatic changes as new maps are finalized in 2011 and 2012.
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC |
LEAN DEMOCRATIC |
DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-4 |
Mike Ross |
R+8 |
| AZ-8 |
Gabrielle Giffords |
R+4 |
| CA-18 |
Dennis Cardoza |
D+4 |
| CA-23 |
Lois Capps |
D+12 |
| CA-47 |
Loretta Sánchez |
D+4 |
| FL-3 |
Corrine Brown |
D+18 |
| GA-2 |
Sanford Bishop, Jr. |
D+1 |
| IL-8 |
NEW SEAT |
D+5 |
| IA-1 |
Bruce Braley |
D+5 |
| IA-2 |
Dave Loebsack |
D+4 |
| MA-10 |
Bill Keating |
D+5 |
| NJ-6 |
Frank Pallone Jr. |
D+8 |
| NJ-8 |
Bill Pascrell Jr. |
D+10 |
| NJ-12 |
Rush Holt |
D+5 |
| NY-1 |
Tim Bishop |
R+0 |
| NY-9 |
VACANT |
D+5 |
| OR-1 |
David Wu |
D+8 |
| OR-5 |
Kurt Schrader |
D+1 |
| PA-17 |
Tim Holden |
R+6 |
| TN-5 |
Jim Cooper |
D+3 |
| VA-11 |
Gerry Connolly |
D+2 |
| WA-2 |
Rick Larsen |
D+3 |
| WV-3 |
Nick Rahall |
R+6 |
| WI-3 |
Ron Kind |
D+4 |
24 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-11 |
Jerry McNerney |
R+1 |
| CA-20 |
Jim Costa |
D+5 |
| CT-5 |
OPEN (Murphy) |
D+2 |
| IL-10 |
Robert Dold |
D+8 |
| IL-11 |
NEW SEAT |
D+6 |
| IL-17 |
Bobby Schilling |
D+6 |
| KY-6 |
Ben Chandler |
R+9 |
| NM-1 |
OPEN (Heinrich) |
D+5 |
| NY-23 |
Bill Owens |
R+1 |
| NY-26 |
Kathy Hochul |
R+6 |
| OH-10 |
Dennis Kucinich |
D+8 |
| OH-13 |
Betty Sutton |
D+5 |
| PA-4 |
Jason Altmire |
R+6 |
| RI-1 |
David Cicilline |
D+13 |
| UT-2 |
Jim Matheson |
R+15 |
13 DEMOCRATS
2 REPUBLICANS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| GA-12 |
John Barrow |
D+1 |
| IA-3† |
Leonard Boswell |
R+1 |
| MI-9 |
Gary Peters |
D+2 |
| NC-7 |
Mike McIntyre |
R+5 |
| NC-11 |
Heath Shuler |
R+6 |
| PA-12 |
Mark Critz |
R+1 |
6 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS |
REPUBLICAN TOSS UP |
LEAN REPUBLICAN |
LIKELY REPUBLICAN |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-3 |
Dan Lungren |
R+6 |
| CA-26 |
David Dreier |
R+3 |
| CA-42 |
Gary Miller |
R+10 |
| FL-22 |
Allen West |
D+1 |
| IL-13 |
Tim Johnson |
D+1 |
| MD-1 |
Andy Harris |
R+13 |
| NV-2 |
VACANT |
R+5 |
| NH-2 |
Charlie Bass |
D+3 |
| NY-25 |
Ann Marie Buerkle |
D+3 |
| PA-11 |
Lou Barletta |
D+4 |
10 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| CA-24 |
Elton Gallegly |
R+4 |
| FL-8 |
Dan Webster |
R+2 |
| FL-25 |
David Rivera |
R+5 |
| IA-4 |
Steve King |
R+4 |
| MN-8 |
Chip Cravaack |
D+3 |
| MO-2 |
OPEN (Akin) |
R+5 |
| NV-3 |
Joe Heck |
D+2 |
| NH-1 |
Frank Guinta |
R+0 |
| NJ-3 |
Jon Runyan |
R+1 |
| NJ-7 |
Leonard Lance |
R+3 |
| NC-8 |
Larry Kissell |
R+2 |
| NC-13 |
Brad Miller |
D+5 |
| OH-6 |
Bill Johnson |
R+2 |
| OK-2 |
OPEN (Boren) |
R+14 |
| PA-7 |
Pat Meehan |
D+3 |
| PA-8 |
Mike Fitzpatrick |
D+2 |
| WA-8 |
Dave Reichert |
D+3 |
| WI-7 |
Sean Duffy |
D+3 |
15 REPUBLICANS
3 DEMOCRATS |
| DIST. |
REPRESENTATIVE |
PVI |
| AR-1 |
Rick Crawford |
R+7 |
| AR-2 |
Tim Griffin |
R+5 |
| AZ-1 |
Paul Gosar |
R+6 |
| AZ-3 |
Ben Quayle |
R+9 |
| AZ-5 |
David Schweikert |
R+5 |
| CA-19 |
Jeff Denham |
R+9 |
| CA-44 |
Ken Calvert |
R+6 |
| CA-45 |
Mary Bono Mack |
R+3 |
| CA-50 |
Brian Bilbray |
R+3 |
| FL-10 |
C. W. Bill Young |
R+1 |
| FL-16 |
Tom Rooney |
R+5 |
| FL-24 |
Sandy Adams |
R+4 |
| IN-2 |
OPEN (Donnelly) |
R+7 |
| IN-8 |
Larry Bucshon |
R+7 |
| MD-6 |
Roscoe Bartlett |
R+13 |
| MI-1 |
Dan Benishek |
R+3 |
| MI-7 |
Tim Walberg |
R+2 |
| MI-11 |
Thad McCotter |
R+0 |
| MN-2 |
John Kline |
R+4 |
| MN-3 |
Erik Paulsen |
R+0 |
| MN-6 |
Michele Bachmann |
R+7 |
| MT-AL |
OPEN (Rehberg) |
R+7 |
| NE-2 |
Lee Terry |
R+6 |
| NY-19 |
Nan Hayworth |
R+3 |
| NY-20 |
Chris Gibson |
R+2 |
| NY-24 |
Richard Hanna |
R+2 |
| OH-1 |
Steve Chabot |
D+1 |
| OH-12 |
Patrick Tiberi |
D+1 |
| OH-15 |
Steve Stivers |
D+1 |
| OH-16 |
Jim Renacci |
R+4 |
| OH-18 |
Bob Gibbs |
R+7 |
| PA-3 |
Mike Kelly |
R+3 |
| PA-6 |
Jim Gerlach |
D+4 |
| PA-15 |
Charlie Dent |
D+2 |
| TX-14 |
OPEN (Paul) |
R+18 |
| TX-23 |
Francisco Canseco |
R+4 |
| TX-27 |
Blake Farenthold |
R+2 |
| WA-3 |
Jaime Herrera Buetler |
D+0 |
| WV-1 |
David McKinley |
R+9 |
| WV-2 |
Shelley Moore Capito |
R+8 |
39 REPUBLICANS
1 DEMOCRATS |
† Note: In these districts, multiple incumbents are running due to redistricting. The Cook Political Report's policy is to list the incumbent who currently represents the greatest share of the new district's population as the incumbent for purposes of our charts.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member
* denotes possible incumbent retirement
# denotes possible serious primary challenge
www.cookpolitical.com
