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Author Page for Dave Brockington

Born in San Jose, grew up in Seattle, received a Ph.D. in poli sci from University of Washington, worked for three years at Universiteit Twente in Enschede, Netherlands, and have worked at the University of Plymouth for eight academic years now in Plymouth, United Kingdom.

Taking Cheap Shots at the Tea Party

[ 28 ] July 27, 2011 | Dave Brockington

John McCain, letting his “maverick” out, in response to Tea Partiers who believe that the Democrats and Obama would get the full blame for a default:

By that flawed logic, “Democrats would have no choice but to pass a balanced budget amendment and reform entitlements and the Tea Party Hobbits could return to Middle Earth,” he said, quoting a Wall Street Journal editorial.

“This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell into G.O.P. nominees,” he jeered, referring to two losing Tea Party candidates for the Senate in 2010.

The Pernicious Myth of Voter Fraud

[ 33 ] July 27, 2011 | Dave Brockington

The Democratic Strategist has a piece entitled “GOP Voter Suppression Scams Spreading Fast“. It’s mostly a discussion (and reposting) of a Washington Post op-ed by Katrina vanden Heuval. My favorite bit:

The i.d. campaigns are based on a particularly flimsy excuse, the myth of “voter fraud” as a significant problem in the U.S. As vanden Heuval explains,

…Voter fraud, in truth, is essentially nonexistent. A report from the Brennan Center for Justice found the incidence of voter fraud at rates such as 0.0003 percent in Missouri and 0.000009 percent in New York. “Voter impersonation is an illusion,” said Michael Waldman, executive director of the Brennan Center. “It almost never happens, and when it does, it is in numbers far too small to effect the outcome of even a close election.”Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) disagrees. He argues that voter fraud is a serious problem that requires serious action. But as proof, Kobach cites just “221 incidents of voter fraud” in Kansas since 1997, for an average of just 17 a year. As a Bloomberg editorial points out, “During that same period, Kansans cast more than 10 million votes in 16 statewide elections. Even if the fraud allegation were legitimate . . . the rate of fraud would be miniscule.”

Which, if Kobach knows how to use a calculator, works out to a fraud rate of .0000221.

My read is that these laws are vulnerable under the VRA, and a organized movement is required to target each and every state law effectively designed to limit access to the vote by some socio-economic groups at the next election. What would be ideal is what commenter Joe from Lowell points out here: “What this country needs is a Voting Rights Amendment, making universal access to the polls an individual, constitutional right for all adult citizens.” A safer bet this morning is on the Seattle Mariners making the playoffs in 2011.

The TDS post is worth a look if you’re feeling too chipper today and require a suitable downer.

Those Pesky Bush Tax Cuts

[ 59 ] July 26, 2011 | Dave Brockington

I know it will come as little surprise to LGM readers, and for those who have yet to see this, apparently the Bush tax cuts have a greater absolute responsibility for the current deficit / debt ceiling manufactured debate than either the entire aggregate policy changes implemented by the Obama administration or the Iraq+Afghanistan wars:

The point is that governments can respond to but not control external shocks. That’s why we call them “shocks.” Governments can control their policies. And the policy that did the most to magnify future deficits is the Bush-era tax cuts. You could argue that the stimulative effect of those cuts is worth it (“deficits don’t matter” etc). But you cannot logically argue that we absolutely must reduce deficits, but that we absolutely must also preserve every penny of those tax cuts. Which I believe precisely describes the House Republican position.

I’m shocked.

And yes, perhaps Obama just might have been a bit more forceful on not allowing their expiry, so to some extent he deserves a modicum of the blame for their continuing relevance. That said, if the tax cuts didn’t already exist, it’s highly unlikely that he would have pursued that particular policy goal on his own.

h/t to a cast of thousands. This graphic and the accompanying Fallows observations have been making the rounds on facebook over the last 24 hours.

Glenn Beck Weighs In on Norway

[ 14 ] July 26, 2011 | Dave Brockington

and even by his advanced standards of batshit crazy, he manages to break new ground.

Norway? Really?

[ 44 ] July 22, 2011 | Dave Brockington

Somebody is clutching at straws.

The Prospects for Bachmann

[ 48 ] July 21, 2011 | Dave Brockington

I’m not one who immediately wrote off Michele Bachmann’s chances to secure the GOP nomination, and Scott L’s observations on July 11 are sensible. Over at The Democratic Strategist, however, there’s a good piece on why Bachmann is potentially encountering obstacles. I discount the argument that “intensified scrutiny of her background and character” could cause problems. She’s already well established as batshit crazy and yet her credibility isn’t suffering: she’s “leading” in the current PPP poll of Republican voters (though by 1% it’s within the MoE, and she’s well behind in all others.) I’m not sure what revelations could possibly come out that would render her brand of crazy unsustainable.

Where this TDS piece gets it right is the challenge provided by Rick Perry, who is looking more likely to announce his candidacy. They appeal to the same constituency in the Republican Party, yet Perry (correctly) is considered more electable by the elite in the party. But in reality, only marginally so; at this early stage in the game the strongest opposition to Obama remains Mitt Romney.

The 1899 Cleveland Spiders, Still the Worst Ever

[ 31 ] July 20, 2011 | Dave Brockington

Geoff Baker has a decent, and balanced, post on the construction of the historically inept offense of the 2011 Seattle Mariners (unfortunately, my preferred team playing “baseball” since 1977). Placing the current edition of the Mariners into historical context, Baker offers us this to assuage our pain:

The Mariners open play tonight with an OPS+ of 75. Last year’s abysmal team — with the worst offense in the DH era — posted a 78. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders — generally recognized as the worst team in baseball history — were at 74.

Unfortunately, the 2011 season isn’t over yet, so there’s still time to overtake the Spiders and achieve baseball immortality.

The Impact of Hackgate on the Viability of the British Government

[ 32 ] July 19, 2011 | Dave Brockington

The headline that ran yesterday for this article implied that the writing was on the wall for the Cameron government. I thought then that this was overstated, and indeed this morning the headline has changed to the more muted “Opponents Seize on Cameron’s Ties to Suspects”.

Fresh polling evidence is consistent with my instinct that this has no existential implications for the Government:

So in conclusion – from the polling so far hackgate appears to have had only a small negative effect on the Conservatives in the polls, and one which may already be fading. While people think Cameron has handled it badly, it has had only a minor effect on his broader approval ratings. Ed Miliband meanwhile has seen a significant boost in how the public see him, though it remains to be seen if it lasts.

A cursory skim of UK political blogs doesn’t reveal much in the way of this level of analysis. While it is possible that this scandal can only escalate, and indeed by essentially forcing the resignation of two of the Met’s top officers for relationships less toxic than Cameron’s hiring of Andy Coulson as his communications director the Tories are implying culpability, my sense is that it blows over. This analysis is overly optimistic:

An overview of the Tory party shows leaks are being provided to right and left wing press criticising the PM, and once the party begins to divide in such a way, the papers, and the bookies, cannot avoid talk of an inevitable election.

My money is by the end of 2012 but o hasten to add, I don’t think Miliband has proved his mettle to the voters yet, and we would see another coalition. This time Labour-Lib Dem I suspect.

This scandal doesn’t last until the end of 2012. The institutional arrangements of British government afford Cameron et al. too many advantages allowing them to ride out the storm. There aren’t many ways to successfully bring down a sitting PM or Government: A) it would require the Conservative Party ousting Cameron as party leader, B) key Cabinet members to resign, or C) Parliament itself passing a resolution of no confidence in the sitting Government. It’s not in the interests of the Conservative Party at present to consider A or B, and it’s clearly not in the interests of the Liberal Democrats to entertain their role in B or C.

Besides, I doubt that following a hypothetical election some time in the next 18 months, the Liberal Democrats will be in much of a position to shore up Labour in a new coalition (nor based on current polling data would Labour even require their services as a coalition partner.)

Japan 2 – 2 USA (aet; Japan wins 3-1 on penalties)

[ 38 ] July 17, 2011 | Dave Brockington

And if this is a spoiler for you, cope.

During the match (which my wife insisted we watch in a pub, and being the good doting husband, I dutifully agreed) I was exchanging texts with an English mate of mine back in Plymouth (who flew out for the nuptials a couple of weeks ago), and at the end of the match he said this:

“Commiserations to you both. Now you truly understand the horror of being English following England in assorted epic failures . . . “

To which I replied:

“But unlike England, we should have won this thing.”

And we should have. Going into this match, I anticipated lengthy spells of Japanese possession, and I figured the end possession rate would be 55 to 60% Japan. They’re a possession side, and the evidence offered thus far at this tournament, we’re not. Yet, I believe the final stat on possession was 50 / 50. And we dominated. Starting Rapinoe on the left wing was ideal, as I suggested in my post following the France match. Alex Morgan didn’t start, and even though Morgan was probably our best player when she did come on as a sub to begin the second half, Cheney looked fine in the forward role today. To Morgan’s credit, when she came on, I told my wife that she’s great: pace to burn and a deft touch. She demonstrated both on her opening goal (which of course was supplied by a sublime Rapinoe through ball).

Everybody who watched the match will know our failures, so apologies in advance if I’m not adding anything new here. We didn’t convert our plentiful chances, especially in the first thirty minutes. I do think the team were under a tactical instruction to challenge the Japanese keeper from a distance, but that obviously didn’t work: it’s difficult to challenge the keeper when the shots are not on target. While there were a few shots that were on target (hitting the post and the cross bar is just bad luck), the Japanese keeper, when actually challenged, did make two incredible saves (one in normal play, one during the cursed penalty shootout). She’d be my “man of the match” so to speak.

The second failure was the first Japanese goal. It was a textbook error: never, ever, ever pass the ball, in defence, in your own box, in front of the goal mouth. Buehler did, and we all saw the result. It’s one of the first things anybody is taught in playing this sport. She was on the ground, her options were limited, but she could have poked it forward, not across. Avoiding that move should be part of the DNA of a soccer player, and I’m certain she knows this.

In the end, we dominated play, and lost. Soccer is like that, as the French (and Brazilians before them) well understand in this tournament. For a neutral, it was a wonderful match to watch. Unfortunately, I wasn’t a neutral today. I’ll leave it to my mate Rich to have the last word on this via text (he was quite possibly the lone English person pulling for the USA today):

“Oh well, it’s raised the profile of the women’s game. No consolation, I know, though.”

And to that, it did.

UPDATE: Kara McDermott has just posted her analysis over at Prost Amerika Soccer. McDermott’s writing on this tournament has been solid and insightful; if you’re interested you should check their archives.

In practice, a strategic pork reserve has problems.

[ 34 ] July 15, 2011 | Dave Brockington

You don’t say.

“Some nations have strategic oil reserves. Some keep grain reserves. China has both, and something others have somehow overlooked: a national pork reserve.”

China is releasing a portion of its pork reserves. I’m sure this has some vague impact on global economic security, and I’m peeved at the Obama Administration for failing to anticipate the need for such a reserve of our own.

The Democrats are on the Right Side of Public Opinion

[ 35 ] July 14, 2011 | Dave Brockington

as Silver writes about new Gallup data. Summarized, public opinion overwhelmingly prefers a mix of tax increases and spending cuts to the Republican’s zero tolerance approach to increasing revenue. The preferred mix by the public is 35% revenue, 65% spending cuts. Even the average Republican voter prefers a mix of 26% tax increases, 74% spending cuts. See also The Democratic Strategist. Only 20% of the electorate are in agreement with the House Republicans that there should be absolutely no tax increases to address the deficit.

How can the Dems possibly mess this up?

France 1 – 3 USA; USA to face Japan in the World Cup Final

[ 22 ] July 13, 2011 | Dave Brockington

We watched France v USA at a friend’s house this morning, and while not quite the dramatic classic that was Brazil v USA, it did have its moments. Our main concern was stamina; while both France and the USA played full 120 minute matches plus penalty shootouts, France had the advantage of an extra day of rest. We were hoping that the Americans’ superior fitness training would pay off, but it didn’t.

The US seemed to control the match for the first 15 minutes. France was incapable of retaining their shape, which gave the US the odd opening. After the first goal at nine minutes, the Americans pulled back; I’m not sure if this was a tactical decision or simple tiredness, but France spent the next 60 minutes firmly in control, superior in technique, passing accuracy, and critically, possession. Where the French failed was in peppering Hope Solo’s goal from range, but eventually something was going to sneak through. I don’t fault the American keeper for the equalizer. Bompastor’s nice cross was directed towards Thiney, hence Solo had to concentrate on the direct threat Thiney provided. Whether Thiney missed, or as I believe, cleverly feinted, Solo couldn’t be expected to protect the far post; that’s what defenders are for in this situation. None was there, and the goal was scored. Around this point ESPN had flashed a shots on goal stat, and it was something like 26 for France to 4 for the USA, and tellingly the last American shot on goal was the Cheney goal at 9 minutes.

The US would find its way eventually, and this was a result of substitutions and a change in tactics. While Carli Lloyd’s lovely back flick to Heather O’Reilly allowed the latter to feed Cheney for the first goal, that was Lloyd’s only decent touch of the game. Replacing her with Megan Rapinoe at the 65th minute (provider of that sublime cross to Wambach against Brazil), placing Rapinoe on the left wing thus allowing Cheney to move inside along Boxx subtly changed the American’s shape and ability to go forward. Combined with forward Alex Morgan’s substitution of the perennially invisible Amy Rodriguez, suddenly the US looked like team capable of finding the opposition final third of the pitch again, even, possibly, scoring (and that they did, twice, at 80 and 82 minutes).

To my mind, Cheney and Boxx work together in central midfield than do Lloyd and Boxx; starting Rapinoe on the left wing in the final seems the wise move. Of course, she was largely invisible in the match against Sweden, and it’s plausible that the spark she added in both the Brazil and France matches was illusory, coming on as a substitute around the 60th minute against a backdrop of 21 other tired players can’t hurt, but the central midfield combination of Lloyd and Boxx doesn’t work, and their inability to retain possession and thwart the opposition did as much to make France look technically superior as the French. Something also has to be done about Amy Rodriguez. It’s not a talent, but a confidence issue, but I wouldn’t want her to start the final. Alex Morgan looked good indeed, and perhaps that’s the player who should start the final. In reality, this was probably going to be the injured Lindsay Tarpley’s role.

And what about Japan in the final? They looked very strong against the Sweden side that defeated the USA in the final group stage match, winning 3-1 (with something like 65% of possession). They finished second in their group to England, to whom they lost 0-2, but beat Mexico 4-0, and impressively, Germany 1-0 in the quarter finals. They’re ranked fourth according to FIFA. Japan have only made it out of the group stage in one World Cup (1995), losing to the US 4-0 in the quarter finals. Their Olympics record is slightly better, finishing fourth in 2008. In 2008, the US knocked Japan out in the semi finals by a score of 4-2. Two months ago, the USA and Japan played two friendlies in the US, both of which were won by the US 2-0.

While their run has been impressive (and the Americans’ uneven), I have to go with the USA to win over Japan in the final on Sunday. Note, this is not patriotic wishful thinking; in my preview of the World Cup on June 23, I predicted a Germany v Brazil final. However, I like our chances against Japan, chances that could be improved if both Rapinoe and Morgan start in place of Lloyd and Rodriguez.