Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - January 2011

Here are the sales for Ventura County January 2011. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 540 for December. That would be the second worst showing for January since I've been keeping records. Some of that is due to Decembers stronger showing which was a pulling forward of demand due to the spike in interest rates.

I don't watch the broader market quite as close as I used to since buying a house but I still look at a narrow segment within Ventura County. My general sense is that the low end if falling away and the mid-market houses are just stagnating, with little inventory to chose from and intense competition for any "deals" that pop up. With rates knocking on 5.25% area that puts intense pressure on the market compared to just a month and a half ago where buyers could get a 4% mortgage rate.

Ventura County December 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for December 2010. Home sales came in at 761 down 15.1% YoY and up 27.4% MoM. The median sales price came in at $355,000 down 1.4% YoY and down 5.3% MoM. This is still more of the same, horrible sales and a stagnant market. Nothing is really changing much on the demand or supply side so it's just a grind.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - December 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County December 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 700 for December. While historically low sales, relative to the past few months that is a strong showing. There is a couple of different reasons I can see for the late surge. First the interest rate surge from 3.875% for a 30yr fixed to 4.750% would prompt those with locks to hurry up and close, this would also scare the sellers to take a slightly lower price now rather than a greater lower price later. Secondly it appears the banks were clearing some REO inventory at the end of the year with the strongest REO sales since October of 2009. The banks may have been worried about the interest rate surge or just trying to clear up the books and take some losses to offset some profits. If these theories are true neither of them suggest a durability or robustness to the market just a pull forward of demand.

Ventura County November 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for November 2010. Home sales came in at 592 down 20.6% YoY and down 3.5% MoM. The median sales price came in at $375,000 up 2.7% YoY and up 5.6% MoM. Slowing sales and rising median is an indication of the low end falling away while the high end volume holds up a bit better. Volume is the better indicator for the health of the market and volume has been horrible. At the same time inventory is restricted and so we just have this stagnant slowly grinding lower market.

Weekly Housing Inventory update for SFV & Ventura - 12/04/2010

Here are the weekly inventory and pending counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley. For the legend Single Family Homes is abbreviated SFH, Ventura County is abbreviated VC and San Fernando Valley is abbreviated SFV. For readers who might not know, REO are bank owned foreclosures and short sales are owners hoping to sell the home for less than what is owed on the mortgage balance.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - November 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County November 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 575 for November. This is very low sales level and is usually only seen around January/February.

Interest rates recently spiked from sub-4% to mid-4.5% plus.. that will pressure the market further in the coming spring season and could blow up some existing pendings as everyone (myself included!) expected QE2 to lower mortgage rates or at least keep them at 4%.

Stagnation in the market appears to still remain the new normal.

Ventura County October 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for October 2010 today. Home sales came in at 619 down 29.6% YoY and down 9.2% MoM. The median sales price came in at $355,000 down 2.7% YoY and down 4.0% MoM. This was in line with the prediction I made at the beginning of the month for closed sales. Currently Novembers pace is running basically flat to slightly raised. These sales numbers are horrible and are only beaten historically by the sales numbers that were posted after the subprime and Alt-A market imploded and most of the lenders weren't geared up for FHA or Conventional back in the fall of 2007. Prices will continue falling with a sales pace as anemic as this. It is a post tax break sugar rush let down but the question becomes where the demand will come from? The best case scenario is everyone looking towards spring and hoping there is some level of pent up demand waiting for the first of the year to buy.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - October 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County October 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 600 for October. This is very low sales levels usually only seen around the winter months. Sellers keep cutting prices looking for buyers but its just a slow time of year (see Mortgage Purchase Applications Index for proof) so things don't look to be getting better anytime soon. Interest rates are set up to reach sub 4% levels and supply is muted and adjusting price slowly to the new reality. Stagnation appears to be the case still for the next few months (and probably beyond).

Ventura County September 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for August 2010 today. Home sales came in at 682 down 13.0% YoY and down 5.1% MoM. The median sales price came in at $370,000 down 0.5% YoY and flat MoM. I noted in my early month estimate that my normal model predicted sales of 700-720 but due to changes in the underlying data used for estimates I thought closings would come in lower and that was what in fact happened. Currently October is running at 20% below September closings month to date so this horrible performance is continuing. To put these numbers in perspective the last time numbers were worse, 2007. Countrywide had just imploded and all that was left was FHA (which few were equipped to underwrite at a large scale) and the GSE's had a $417,000 limit. Additionally prices were much higher as were interest rates so the gap between buyers and sellers was much much wider. But right now we have a $729,000 loan limit, 4% mortgage rates and lower prices and sales are anemic. Prices are still too high.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - September 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County September 2010. We are at levels which suggest flat to down sales from August but there is one caveat. The underlying data source has been undergoing some changes and I don't know how that will effect these numbers (there is more of a possibility of double counting now). So there is a possibility the numbers could come in a bit weaker than my call of 700-720 for the Dataquick Ventura sales number but I wouldn't think it would be dramatically lower (nothing lower than 650). I just don't have enough data at this point to know how the changes will effect my normal guesstimate.

Ventura County August 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for August 2010 today. Home sales came in at 719 down 9.7% YoY and down 4.0% MoM. The median sales price came in at $370,000 down 1.5% YoY and flat MoM. Volume was lower from what I predicted at the beginning of the month. The anemic volume continues and looking forward to the weekly inventory pending and contingents it doesn't look like the malaise will end anytime soon. Prices will continue under pressure as a result.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - August 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County August 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down YoY at around 750 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. Watching the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see supply building but contingents and pendings have stopped falling rapidly due to continued price cuts by sellers. If Dataquick sales do come in around 750 that would be the worst August since in at least a decade (the period for which I have data).

Ventura County July 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for July 2010 today. Home sales came in at 749 down 10.5% YoY and down 15.8% MoM. The median sales price came in at $370,000 down 5.20% YoY and 3.6% MoM. Volume was in range from what I predicted at the beginning of the month. This amounts to the worst July since back for when I have records as far as sales volume. Right now August is looking weaker but with closings weighted towards the end of the month anything can happen. I highly doubt we'd see even July level volume in August though. If you follow the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see the contingents have fallen but then leveled out as sellers respond with price cuts. It looks like a long slow slog from here on out.

Ventura County Loan To Value Chart - January through June 2010

Note: The above chart can be clicked on and enlarged.

I haven't posted the loan to value charts in awhile. This one is for the period between January 2010 and June 2010.

The chart is simply purchase price on the left with loan to value ratio across the bottom. The different color coding indicates the type of loan (Conventional, FHA, Private Party or VA).

You can really see various underwriting guidelines come into play. That arching blue line going from top left sloping down right is the effect of the conforming loan limit on the conventional market. The solid line at 80% LTV is the effect of traditional underwriting guidelines with no Mortgage insurance. At 75% LTV that line usually indicates 2nd home purchases and the like. The blue line at 90% LTV most likely shows conventional loans with mortgage insurance. Then there is of course the absolutely massive wall of FHA financed properties.

I think the high LTV FHA high balance FHA loans are extremely risky. These are people who can't save and have high consumption. Their prospect for higher income is low but lower income is high and it isn't like they have shown a propensity for saving for a rainy day. Also FHA loans are underwritten to extremely high DTI ratios (as high as 47% front and 57% back end).

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - July 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for July 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down 10-15% at around 730 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. Watching the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see supply building but contingents and pendings have stopped falling rapidly due to continued price cuts by sellers. The current level of demand is still extremely low reminiscent of January/February demand levels but when the sellers get the price right the homes fly off the market.

Ventura County June 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for June 2010 today. Home sales came in at 890 up 5.5% YoY. The median sales price came in at $384,000 up 5.20% YoY. Volume was stronger than I predicted at the beginning of the month, late reporters as a percentage of sales was much greater than normal. The possibility of the tax credit running out really caused quite a rush in closings. Rising median is due to mix shift due to the low end running out of inventory the most plus some seasonal strength in the mid-level houses as those sellers have been cutting price to compete for buyers. As far as sales volume this was the high water mark for the year, the question is just how far we fall from here.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - June 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for June 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be about even at around 840 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. If you watch the weekly inventory report you can see the market weakening even in the face of sub-5% rates, contingents and pendings falling, sales stagnant. All this with massive incentives and choked off supply.. it is clearly a vain attempt to keep the market propped up. I fully expect more housing incentives to hit the market they will just have to wait until after the November elections.

Ventura County May 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for May 2010 today. Home sales came in at 815 up a paltry 2.3% YoY. The median sales price came in at $380,000 up 7.00% YoY. This report was exactly in line with the prediction I made at the beginning of the month. Rising median is due to mix shift due to the low end running out of inventory the most plus some seasonal strength in the mid-level houses as those sellers have been cutting price to compete for buyers. Considering the Federal tax credit expiration and the ability to double dip and get the California credit too this is a surprisingly weak report.

There is a very strong possibility June will be weaker than people are thinking, current conventional wisdom is that June sales will be still be up YoY. We shall know with quite a bit of clarity in 2 weeks if that is true but it is looking very doubtful at this point.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - May 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for May 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be up slightly YoY at around 810 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. If you watch the weekly inventory report you can see the market weakening even in the face of sub-5% rates, contingents and pendings falling, sales stagnant. All this with massive incentives and choked off supply.. it is clearly a vain attempt to keep the market propped up. I fully expect more housing incentives to hit the market they will just have to wait until after the November elections.

Ventura County April 2010 Home Sales

Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for April 2010 today. Home sales came in at 789 up 9.0% YoY. April has averaged 1,159 over the years so as you can see this April is significantly below average. The median sales price came in at $382,000 up 12.40% YoY. This report was exactly in line with the prediction I made at the beginning of the month. Rising median is due to mix shift due to the low end running out of inventory the most plus some seasonal strength in the mid-level houses as those sellers have been cutting price to compete for buyers. I've noticed a lot of price cutting by sellers the last few weeks and the weekly report for contingents and pendings is looking awfully light. There was a big rush right at the end of April for closed sales that registered late, I think Dataquick will pick those up in the May numbers because they go off of recorded deeds. We will see a historically weak but stronger than the year before May and June but July is starting to look pretty weak based on the data I am seeing.