The Telegraph reported Friday that President Bush’s State Department was secretly providing support to a “leading figure” behind the uprising in Egypt as early as 2008.
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.
These allegations arose from a secret diplomatic cable between the U.S. Embassy in Egypt and the State Department that was leaked as a part of the recent WikiLeaks dump discussing feedback from an Egyptian national who participated in the Alliance of Youth Movements Summit December 3-5 in New York. The entire cable can be read here but I thought this piece in particular was interesting:
He alleged that several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.
So far the U.S. media has neither asked Secretary Clinton about this allegation nor has it conducted any interviews with former Secretary Rice on the topic. How long do you think it will take before a U.S. media outlet with run with this story?
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Articles like this must be placed in a little context. First and foremost, why would the US want to bring down the Mubarak government which they found important enough to give almost $20 billion in foreign aid to over the past decade? Furthermore, this is the same Mubarak government that kept Egypt on friendly terms with Israel since the peace deal in 1979 — an agreement which is vitally important to stabilization of the Middle Eastern region since it removed the most populous Arab nation from the Arab/Israeli conflict.
Unless the US knows what government will remain in Egypt to keep that peace — as well as keep the Suez Canal open — why would they risk playing a role in an Egyptian revolution that leaves the makeup of its government in doubt? And if a democratically elected Egyptian government takes office, all bets are off on how it treats Israel; not to mention how friendly it becomes with Syria again, how it treats Jordan (the other Arab nation that shares a peace treaty with Israel), and whether the new Egyptian government will serve as a regional beacon for Islamism or Pan-Arabism. Those are all huge, huge question marks.
I could play the personal story card here and talk about the short time I lived in Egypt and observed an incompetent government and a society on the edge (which is also important), but let’s stick to the geo-political factors here. Everything I’ve presented are huge, huge question marks. As is, when the Egyptian Revolution became serious after prayers last Friday, President Obama and VP Biden had a “Who can shit their pants the most” contest in the war room. The fact that Obama personally called President (slash Dictator) Mubarak directly after Mubarak went on state TV to declare he’s not leaving office shows the vital important Mubarak’s government plays to American foreign policy; due to he’s stabilizing factor with Israel and the MidEast region.
Now I’m not doubting that US intelligence likes to keep its fingers in all facets of society in important countries, and Egypt definitely qualifies as important. But looking at one Wikileak which discusses the US talking with an opposition leader, then the Telegraph insinuating that the US must have a hand in the Egypt Revolution — despite all the huge factors I discussed — is out of context at best. More realistically, I think the whole story is ridiculous. The memo discusses who this opposition leader met with leaders of all the other opposition parties about an unspoken plan to overthrow Mubarak.. Really? Because the first time I hung out on Tahrir Square, when I tried talking Egyptian politics I was told to shut up because the secret police could be milling about. Mubarak had a couple hundred thousand secret police, in addition to a large security and intelligence apparatus, patrolling a police state he’s had under Martial Law since Sadat’s assassination in 1981. So when a Wikileak claims that one Egyptian opposition leader the US has contact with has met with all the other opposition leaders, and they all agreed to one plan, I simply don’t believe it.
A lot of context is missing from this story. If I were an editor (and didn’t have to worry about paper sales), I would have kicked it back to the reporter and said “Find out more. A lot more. Then come back if you find anything substantial.”
I heard this on the radio this morning. I don’t believe it since Egypt has been oppressed for a long time and the people of Egypt are fed up with Mubarek.
But, I do believe it is part of the Republican PR machine trying to take credit for what the Egyptians are currently doing.
What an absurd premise, that the conservascum would promote democracy when they have spent trillions of dollars and millions of lives destroying liberal thought, democracy and representative government worldwide for my entire 60 years of life.
In usual form the GOP acts like mediocre middle managers and take claim of possible good things and shuns the responsibilities for anything they might have caused.
Truth: They screwed up 8 years and now after 2 years of hard work by Obama and opposition by the GOP things are still better. The Egypt situation is happening because the Egyptians are fed up. To think that Bush would engineer the overthrow of a dictator which did exactly what Israel wanted is a lie.