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April 19, 2011

Bad Economic News, with Rock Stars and Ferraris

By Armed Liberal at 20:27

When celebrities are advising people to invest in a portfolio of Ferraris, can the brick wall be too far away?? (h/t Barry Ritholtz)
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April 14, 2011

If You're Not Outraged, You're Not Paying Attention (Again)

By Armed Liberal at 02:47

The regulators are letting the bad guys off the hook - again. From the Post:
Three federal agencies announced agreements with the nation's largest mortgage servicers Wednesday that aim to stem shoddy foreclosure practices. But the plans do not immediately impose financial penalties on the companies or force them to reduce the mortgage debt for troubled borrowers.

The deals require the mortgage servicers to identify and compensate borrowers who suffered financial harm, but the details have not yet been decided. The companies must also provide a single point of contact for struggling borrowers, many of whom complain of getting the runaround when they try to get help. Servicers also would not be able to foreclose on borrowers after granting them a loan modification.
Look, it's simple. When the regulators work for the regulated - or at least plan to do so in their next career cycle - public choice theory makes it unlikely that those of us on the outside are going to get much out of the arrangement.

And the facts seem to be bearing that out.

(and yes, I know about the states AG actions - but unless someone shows me different, keeping this pendant until those were settled would give another lever to move things with).
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  • toc3: Just out of curiosity, assuming for the sake of argument read more
  • toc3: MikeDC, I did not mention Legislation. I also did say read more
  • MikeDC: In reading through the article, I didn't see anything about read more

April 10, 2011

Will Facebook and Groupon Rescue California?

By Armed Liberal at 00:24

Here's an interesting (and hopeful) article from Chris Nolan (the smart tech finance writer, not the director). In it, she suggests that the coming wave of IPOS for social companies headquartered in California may be just the ticket to dig us out of the fiscal hole we're in.
California Governor Jerry Brown is going to have a very successful third term since he'll probably be able to solve - or claim he's solved - the state's budget mess next year. Brown - the Steve Jobs of politics - is going to be the beneficiary of what can only be called pent-up demand in both the venture capital business and the stock market. In other words, people who need to sell their stock to earn their keep (venture capitalists, angel investors) have plenty of customers (wanna-be shareholders). And the stock market's increasingly looking healthy enough to support large-scale stock offerings.
Basically, one or more of Big Social (Facebook, Groupon, Zynga, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc.) may go public in the coming year. When they do, the knock-on effect on the regional economy is going to be significant...and that is going to lead to a surge in tax collections.

Now on one hand, that's worth breathing a sigh of relief.

On the other, it's worrisome, because it will - again - delay actually sorting out our fiscal house of cards. I don't want my kids dealing with this; I want us to deal with it now.

...we'll see.
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  • Gbear: Look for 2 more businesses moving out of California. read more
  • Tim Oren: Thanks for warning me never to pay attention to that read more
  • Glen Wishard: Brown is ... the Steve Jobs of politics? If I read more

April 8, 2011

A Soldier Speaks Out On The Shutdown - 'Leaders Eat Last.'

By Armed Liberal at 22:07

From one of my military correstpondents on the Federal shutdown and the military:

I've been trying to get my head around the idea that those of us in the military might not get paid next week. I don't really care about myself, in as much as I'm a single soldier without dependents. I can eat in the DFAC, put my bills (and some beer) on a credit card, throw a temper tantrum and get on with my life. But I am lucky to be slightly above living paycheck to paycheck. I'm a moderately responsible E5 with a girlfriend who likes nice restaurants.

Privates and their new families, on the other hand, are often barely above water. Too much of the time, issues that you deal with as a leader in the military revolve around family issues or privates and their money. These are not people who can afford two weeks without pay. In the area just off post, there are a lot of people who make a living off families not being able to pay the bills, and they charge rates that would make the Mob blush.

That isn't even getting into the soldiers who are deployed.

Ever had to try and resolve a bank overdraft charge on a satellite phone on a combat outpost with about a half day time difference? It's not easy, and again, single soldiers aren't the ones I'm worried about. A late truck payment sucks, but it isn't the end of the world (whether they will get reimbursed for late fees by their employer or bank is another issue for another day).

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read the rest! »

  • mark buehner: True, and a lot of those 'cuts' are mirages- something read more
  • MikeDC: Meh... neither the Republicans (outside of Ryan and the Pauls) read more
  • mark buehner: I think you guys are missing something- this may be read more

April 5, 2011

Michael Totten's 'The Road To Fatima Gate'

By Armed Liberal at 19:36

Michael Totten is a friend - which makes writing reviews of his work hard. Reading this, you might wonder whether I'm writing to boost a friend...or saying what I honestly think.

I get that, and to be honest when I got my copy of his new book, 'The Road to Fatima Gate', I started reading it as a friend, expecting to enjoy reading about the adventures and thoughts we'd already discussed and to be impressed most of all by what he'd done.

That lasted about ten pages.

What Michael has done is to bring his readers with him - concretely, not in abstract - as he tries to explore from the position of a non-Orientalist westerner the culture and human flavor of parts of the Middle East. And that's an incredible gift he's offering you.

To be blunt, I don't trust anyone who writes about the Middle East today. There are so many partisan and cultural interests clamoring for primacy that I can't with any confidence separate out the honest perspectives from the spin. My answer to that is to want to go and see myself, to sit in restaurants, walk streets, talk to people at random they way I typically do when I travel. Because for me those small experiences begin to aggregate into impressions that tell me something I trust.

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Today Is Yuri Gagarin's Day

By Armed Liberal at 15:28

1961-1st-manVostok_1442391c.jpg

A week from today, Gagarin flew.
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  • Glen Wishard: And three weeks from today Vladimir Komarov died on Soyuz read more

March 31, 2011

Could This Possibly Be True?

By Armed Liberal at 23:51

...I'm not sure I can even believe anyone wonders.
On tipping - and breast size

Yes, it does make a difference, at least according to a study published in the Archives of Sexual Behavior. The larger the breasts, the bigger the gratuity.
Stunned, I tell you.

Added link.
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  • toc3: This can't be true. I think they should fund a read more
  • juliet: This is how I do it: as a female rater read more
  • juliet: This is how I do it: as a female rater read more

I Told You So

By Armed Liberal at 23:21

Here's Megan McArdle in The Atlantic:
This is one of the reasons that we can't fix all our budget problems with higher taxes on the rich--if we do that, revenues are going to collapse dangerously every time there's a recession.
What I said. Michael Hiltzik, the pathetic excuse for a business columnist in the LA Times, disagrees.
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  • Thorley Winston: I would also be in favor of removing the read more
  • Roland Nikles: Marc, the link to your earlier (early aught's)musings about tax read more
  • alchemist: I still agree that we need to fundamentally change the read more

March 29, 2011

Libya And Strategic Deficits

By Armed Liberal at 21:28

Blake Hounshell's (remember praktike? he's a genuine Big Deal now...they grow up so damn fast...) Twitter stream, I'm sent (approvingly) to Dan Nexon's 'The Duck of Minerva' blog, where he writes (approvingly) about the lack of a doctrinal cover for Obama's intervention in Libya.

Now I have mixed feelings about this intervention; on one hand the lid is coming off the Arab kleptocracies as I discussed back in '03 - which is a Good Thing. But we have no plans or capabilities in place to compete for the allegiance and affection of the lately-oppressed people whose dictators we supported for a generation - which is a Really Bad Thing.

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read the rest! »

  • toc3: And playing the 'Israel will be fine' game will continue read more
  • toc3: Well mark, You may just want not to look at read more
  • mark buehner: And playing the 'Israel will be fine' game will continue read more

March 23, 2011

SFC. Carlos Santos-Silva

By Armed Liberal at 00:44

Today is the anniversary of his death in Afghanistan, where he served with my son. He is survived by his widow Kristen and son Cameron, and by all those who remember him.

My son was in town this weekend, and last night after dinner he and a guest were talking about his time in Afghanistan. Our guest asked him about good memories, and he talked about the day they were on mounted patrol, drove through a town where they smelled a delicious bakery and all talked about it. On the trip back, SFC. Santos-Silva called a halt, set up a perimeter and overwatch, and walked into the bakery, buying everything on the shelves and some "disgustingly sweet" local energy drink.

They drove back to the COP eating fresh pastry and laughing...

Godspeed.

Update: Corrected SFC Santos-Silva's rank.
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  • jan: Nice anecdote, Armed Liberal. Even in war there are small read more

March 17, 2011

About That Whole "Civility" Thing...Althouse Gets Threats

By Armed Liberal at 22:21

...I think it's (sadly) already become passe.

Ann Althouse and Meade have been covering the demonstrations in their backyard in Madison.

Today, some Madison jackass using the name Jim Shankman published a threat/blackmail letter on Scrib'ed (probably a violation of the TOS) in which Anne and Meade are instructed to apologize, pay $10,000 to the IWW and other 'progressive' organizations (plus free pizza for the protesters!), maintain silence about political issues relating to unions, and stay away from a statue in downtown Madison.

Read the whole piece while it's up (it's a massive TOS violation and won't be there long).

I've had a couple people rattle my cage - nothing very serious because I'm not at Althouse's level of prominence (or maybe because I'm the "Armed" Liberal?).

But this kind of bullying bullshit is far beyond the pale, and while it's the work of one person - named Jim Shankman - clearly it opens the gates for him, or for someone who reads his drivel (and it's really bad - a farrago of sexual, political, and economic frustration written by someone who isn't smart enough to understand that overpaid public-sector workers are making his life as a marginal service worker worse) to tee off on Anne or Meade.

That's bad.

It's likely nothing at all except shameful to the guy who wrote and posted it, and to the whopping 82 people who have "liked" it.

This kind of personalized threat is the opposite of what our politics needs right now.
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  • toc3: 9/11 may be the defining American event I think may read more
  • Marcus Vitruvius: Let's just hope it's not a decade's worth of history read more
  • Armed Liberal: @Ham ... Don't feed this, please... read more

March 16, 2011

Thomas Lynch 1927 - 2011

By Armed Liberal at 18:00

Tom_Mom.jpg

My mother's partner, an Irish physicist who had stories and love enough for ten men. And if that weren't enough reason to love him, he adored the boys and they adored him.

Have a glass of Knob Creek or Tullamore (neat) and drink to a life damn well lived.
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  • mark: Marc, My condolences to your family and especially to your read more
  • Blake Sobiloff: Condolences, Marc. Sounds like he'll continue to live for a read more
Recent Comments
  • toc3: Just out of curiosity, assuming for the sake of argument read more
  • toc3: MikeDC, I did not mention Legislation. I also did say read more
  • MikeDC: In reading through the article, I didn't see anything about read more
  • Armed Liberal: What toc says...by legislatively overriding contracts - and the obligation read more
  • Gbear: Look for 2 more businesses moving out of California. read more
  • toc3: I do not want to go into a long explanation, read more
  • MikeDC: The intro says "The regulators are letting the bad guys read more
  • Phil Smith: Servicers also would not be able to foreclose on borrowers read more
  • Thorley Winston: Just out of curiosity, assuming for the sake of argument read more
  • mark buehner: True, and a lot of those 'cuts' are mirages- something read more
  • MikeDC: Meh... neither the Republicans (outside of Ryan and the Pauls) read more
  • mark buehner: I think you guys are missing something- this may be read more
  • Armed Liberal: Glenn - "Normally, the budget is the centerpiece of a read more
  • Glen Wishard: I don't know about Obama being as much a player read more
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