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Peak travel
A study of eight industrialized countries, including the United States, shows that seemingly inexorable trends — ever more people, more cars and more driving — came to a halt in the early years of the 21st century, well before the recent escalation in fuel prices. It could be a sign, researchers said, that the demand for travel and the demand for car ownership in those countries has reached a saturation point...
Most of the eight countries in the study have experienced declines in miles traveled by car per capita in recent years. The U.S. appears to have peaked at an annual 8,100 miles by car per capita, and Japan is holding steady at 2,500 miles.
Here is more.
Posted by Tyler Cowen on January 1, 2011 at 08:05 PM in Economics | Permalink
Comments
My family is at about 5,000 per capita for a family of 4.
Posted by: liberalarts at Jan 1, 2011 8:17:34 PM
My family is at about 5,000 per capita for a family of 4.
Posted by: liberalarts at Jan 1, 2011 8:18:22 PM
"United States, Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia"
Notice anything missing?
Posted by: Joel Bernstein at Jan 1, 2011 8:40:11 PM
China seems on its way toward at least doubling car use in the next decade.
Posted by: Steve at Jan 1, 2011 9:01:49 PM
Oil prices have been rising since the mid '90s. You have to take that general rise into account, not just the drastic leaps of the mid '00s.
Posted by: Neal at Jan 1, 2011 9:10:16 PM
Do they look at air travel? This result is interesting but if you're looking for sociological implications ("peak travel") or environmental implications (less carbon emissions)...you could be on the wrong track. I don't know what the trend is there.
Posted by: celestus at Jan 1, 2011 9:27:02 PM
Let me get this straight: people driving less and owning fewer cars "could be a sign" of reduced demand for travel, according to researchers? Do these same researchers think that the 2010 election results "could be a sign" that Republicans will do well at the polls?
Posted by: Curt F. at Jan 2, 2011 2:43:13 AM
It correlates with widespread adoption of the Internet: bored people no longer need to go out to seek entertainment. It also correlates with aging demographics and "cocooning".
Posted by: anonymous at Jan 2, 2011 4:14:29 AM
cars are substitutable goods
Posted by: steve at Jan 2, 2011 5:06:27 AM
i want my teletransporter; and i want it now!
Posted by: kb at Jan 2, 2011 8:31:24 AM
i want my teletransporter; and i want it now!
Posted by: kb at Jan 2, 2011 8:35:29 AM
Oil prices have been rising since the mid '90s. You have to take that general rise into account, not just the drastic leaps of the mid '00s.
Prices fell through the 90s and only stopped falling when OPEC cut production 4.2 mbpd in 1999-2000.
Posted by: mulp at Jan 2, 2011 1:11:42 PM
So let me get this straight. Oil has been rising in price since 1998 after a decade-long low price plateau, and someone finds it remarkable that demand has gone down in countries already saturated with cars? Perhaps they could have checked an oil price chart first....
Google is your friend, dear researcher.
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/05/oil-price-chart.html
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/market-outlook-energy/655 (scroll to third chart for multi-year)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/30376621@N03/2845166062/
http://economatters.wordpress.com/2008/10/20/opecs-plan-to-cut-oil-output-to-keep-prices-from-falling-emphasizes-the-urgency-for-the-western-world-to-get-independent-from-the-cartel/
Posted by: happyjuggler0 at Jan 2, 2011 3:52:43 PM
It's only "Peak Travel" if you are traveling by motor vehicle. It's not necessarily "Peak Travel" if we're talking about mass transit, bicycles and walking -- modes of transportation that are nowhere near peak in the US.
So, call it "Peak Driving."
Posted by: Marty Barfowitz at Jan 2, 2011 10:32:01 PM
"seemingly inexorable trends — ever more people, more cars and more driving"
For the US, the "ever more people" part is true. Although most of the 1% annual growth rate is from immigration, it is nonetheless real. 1% per year does not seem like much, but it implies doubling the population every three generations. When the base is very large as in the US (300M), the absolute number of additional people added to the population every year is large. This growth, combined with policies that encourage sprawl and driving, has made congestion ever worse which in turn means that it takes longer and is less pleasant to drive a fixed distance which presumably discourages people from driving more.
Posted by: jdm at Jan 3, 2011 8:11:21 AM
Measuring miles driven per car can be misleading as cars last longer and families accumulate more cars per person. Some vehicles can be shunted into specialty roles. For example, I hope to keep my 2001 minivan for another decade but only use it when its immense size makes it necessary.
Posted by: Steve Sailer at Jan 3, 2011 8:52:00 AM
As far as I can tell, the study is wrong, at least for private automobile travel in the US. Passenger-miles of automobile travel per capita has increased.
Year 2000:
Population: 282,171,957
Passenger-miles (cars + light trucks): 4,012,121 million
Passenger-miles per capita: 14,218
Year 2007:
Population: 301,579,895
Passenger-miles (cars + light trucks): 4,570,817 million
Passenger-miles per capita: 15,156
Sources:
http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html
http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_37.html
Posted by: Miller at Jan 3, 2011 6:50:52 PM
