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The recovery of Phil Jones – Back to the future

BERJAYA

Back to the Future?

In 2008, in a message titled “IPCC and FOI“, Phil Jones asked Michael Mann to delete  emails he might have gotten from Kieth Briffa, assuring him that Briffa would delete such emails as well. He said ’they’ was going to get in touch with Caspar Ammann asking him to delete emails too. Responding to Jones, Michael Mann replied sphinx-like, that he would get in touch with Eugene Wahl about the matter.

Four scientists – Kieth Briffa, Michael Mann, Caspar Ammann, Eugene Wahl – all being set into motion by Phil Jones, deleting emails relating to the IPCC fourth assessment report – this is the picture we get, from one the emails in Climategate.

The alleged email exchange is below:

From: Michael Mann mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
To: Phil Jones p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: IPCC & FOI
Date: Thu, 29 May 2008 08:12:02 -0400
Reply-to: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
<x-flowed>
Hi Phil,
laughable that CA would claim to have discovered the problem. They would
have run off to the Wall Street Journal for an exclusive were that to
have been true.
I'll contact Gene about this ASAP. His new email is: generwahl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
talk to you later,
mike
Phil Jones wrote:
>
>> Mike,
> Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?
> Keith will do likewise. He's not in at the moment - minor family crisis.
>
> Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't
> have his new email address.
>
> We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.
>
> I see that CA claim they discovered the 1945 problem in the Nature
> paper!!
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone [removed]
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax [removed]
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: [removed]
503 Walker Building FAX: [removed]
The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
University Park, PA 16802-5013

http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm

Now, a year after these series of exchanges were made public by Climategate, Jones, we are informed by Nature magazine, deleted the emails from just “bravado”.

“We just thought if they’re going to ask for more, we might as well not have them”

Another reason: Jones deleted emails based on dates, to keep them under control. Amidst all this, the specific reasons are lost.

Apparently Jones deleted these emails, to “simplify his life”, by “not having them”, if they were requested by people “in the future”. Mindblowing. The creativity at excuse-making by Nature seems boundless.

The Nature article potrays Jones’ story through Climategate year One. He is shown as a sensitive man, sucked into a vortex of reactive maneuvers, outwitting critics, bloggers and sceptics, deleting emails in the process.  As much as one hopes for more transparency and data openness, one hopes Jones finds the right rationalizations to put his mind at rest first. Meanwhile the skeptics are not going to get anything in the near future, it seems.

Here is an interesting bit of “search-box” investigation you can perform. Look for the words ‘denier’ or ’fossil-fuel’ in the article – you might just be surprised by the results.

Update:
David Adam, the author of the article, responds at Bishop Hill (scroll down).

WUWT picks up on the story here (comment).

 

Eli Rabett and the Himalayan Glaciers

Some people are great sticklers for scientific accuracy a.k.a ‘being honest’. Others are experts at putting the ‘good stuff’ coming out of the IPCC to use, a.k.a ‘being effective’.

While discussions on the Himalayan glacier melt largely centered around the scientific issues raised by the IPCC’s extensive copy-pasted text from an old Indian environmental magazine, Down to Earth, as though it contained credible IPCC-grade conclusions worthy of attention, it was in international bargaining and negotiations that the true value of such prattle in IPCC reports comes into full naked view.

In July 2009, Hillary Clinton visited India, ahead of the looming Copenhagen summit. Clinton wanted India to accept ‘binding emissions targets’, the Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh said India would not do such a thing. Things came to a head at a public press conference with Ramesh and Clinton exchanging barbs.

Rabbet’s Himalayan Record

Miffed by the Indian response, Eli Rabett, the consensus blogger drew out the daggers.

Enamored as he was by then, of the seductive concept of all the Himalayan glaciers disappearing in the next 25 years, the minister’s reaction spurred him, first, to dismiss it as mere ”persiflage”. This was accompanied by a gentle reminder to the Indians of how “compassionate” he was, of their reproductive profligacy,  and the resulting CO2 ejaculations into the global commons that would damage global climate.

India, well, Eli is a compassionate, fast breeding mammal but still. on the other hand, the Rabett recognizes denial when it is on display thus

Not quite slaked in his thirst for pointing out obvious ‘home truths’, Eli Rabett dived in once more,

To our Indian friends it is my sad duty to point out that among the great civilizations India will be hit first and hardest by climate change, if not within my lifetime which grows short, certainly within the next three decades.

What was it, that would completely destroy Indian civilization within Eli Rabett’s (short) lifetime? Before we get to that, there is more climate porn and suffering …

When that happens, not only will Indians beyond counting suffer, starve and die in disasters worse than the worst famines of the past centuries, but the basis of their religion, beliefs and civilization will become a seasonal chimera. Food and water sent as aid from the outside will at best sustain a small remnant.

Can the Indian government survive such a disaster? Likely not. Nor will Indian society be able to withstand. It will wither and die on the sere ground of the Ganga valley and those who temporized today will be cursed forever.

Really? Is there something that can completely destroy an entire civilization within 30 years?

It turns out that this ‘something’ was the IPCC passage on the Himalayan glaciers – the plagiarized text  from the Down to Earth magazine article.

Based on the same, Eli Rabett felt that India “must take the lead” as it was a “threatened large country”, that it couldn’t afford “posturing”, that it would be the “first and the harderst hit by climate change”, that nature had “nominated India” to meet its “existential threat” and demise at the hands of climate change. Faced by its own imminent destruction, said Eli Rabett continuing the turgid wanky wonkery, India was “in no position to oppose a climate change treaty” since it was the “one most at immediate risk outside of a few South Pacific Islands”, to be kept alive by water bottles thrown down from the sky as the world was a “mean and tough place“.

In the end, Eli Rabett even suffered his visions come true – “a prophet” he declared himself, for having predicted that India would see “drinking water supply for close to a billion people disappear…” and the ensuing reaction. He came close to climactic blogging bliss when Barack Obama, the American president appeared to him to be “reading Rabett Run” because he reminded India, just as Eli Rabett did, that “progress” would not amount to anything, if it could not “harvest crops or find drinkable water” (because the glaciers would be gone).

In the story of Glaciergate, this is his record—of alarmism, of self-indulgence in fantasies of catastrophism, of putting to work for his politics the IPCC gunboats without examining for a moment their scientific veracity or accuracy. Now we know what to make of something when he becomes much excited about it.

James Inhofe, whom Eli Rabett called “Senator for the Paleozoic” said:

“Unless supporters of cap-and-trade legislation can develop a plan to convince China and India to make meaningful emissions reductions on par with the United States, no such bill will pass the U.S. Senate”

Inhofe is probably the only politician visiting Copenhagen who said something that turned out true.

Crispin Tickell and TERI-Europe

Marlborough House, London

Marlborough House, London

On the website of Crispin Tickell, noted British diplomat and environmentalist, one notices a curious thing.

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What happened to the IPCC at Busan?

“After all, most people spend their lives making decisions under uncertainty, and that’s what dealing effectively with climate change demands – the same kind of decisions you make when you decide to buckle your seatbelt…”

-Chris Field, IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair, speaking to reporters at Busan

Evidently, such advice does not apply to the IPCC itself.

IPCC - Going off the Rails

Richard Black, BBC, thinks that ” Rajendra Pachauri will be here to usher” the AR5 in,” barring some major mishap”. In the rough-and-tumble world of climate change polity, the events of the last one year are not major mishaps then.



Thanks Richard Tol

Richard Tol writes a blog where he discusses developments in how their writing of a chapter for the 5th assessment report for the IPCC is coming along.

So when the IPCC decided to keep RK Pachauri along for the rest of his term, it was widely reported in the news and blogs. Examining the reaction, Tol apparently thinks that all skeptics are absolutely thrilled and overjoyed by what the IPCC has done.

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A glimpse at IPCC Conference Busan – III – Pachauri stays

BERJAYA

No conflict if you look for it quickly enough

Well, the climate establishment has delivered on what was expected from them. Richard Black, BBC, wrote yesterday dropping hints of what was to come.

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A glimpse at IPCC Conference Busan – II

“I believe it is scientifically clear and commonly understood that climate change is unequivocal…. We cannot afford to dismiss this opportunity to build a green and sustainable world for future generations with countermeasures against climate change,”
South Korean Environment Minister, Lee Maan-Ee at the opening of the IPCC conference.
Also included is how to use the rise in temperatures as opportunities for job creation and new businesses by cultivating new subtropical plants or offering eco-friendly tourism.
 
Conclusion: The key thing here of course, which we cannot afford to give up on, is the opportunity.

A glimpse at IPCC Conference Busan – I

BERJAYA

The IPCC Himalayan blunders - impervious to change

Reuters reports here from the UN conference in Korea. Here are three facts presented in order, reflecting some hard facts about the IPCC on the ground.

1)

“Among the council recommendations [IAC] were that the chair of the IPCC, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with U.S. climate campaigner Al Gore, should serve only one six-year term.”

2)

“India has affirmed backing for Pachauri, making it hard for others to object to one of the few high-level climate posts held by a developing nation.”

3)

“At Monday’s session, no nations called for Pachauri to quit.”

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Fred Pearce: Reviving the ghost of Amazongate

By now, this is about the third time science journalist Fred Pearce has tried his hand at spinning Amazongate. Why may we wonder, is this hobby horse being flogged back to life?

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The KPMG review: Not shooting straight?

(This post originally appeared at Bishop Hill. This is a slightly longer version)

The Guardian recently published an article about a “limited-review” of the IPCC chairman RK Pachauri’s personal accounts by KPMG, a firm of accountants. This report had widespread play as it followed closely behind the Telegraph’s apology to RK Pachauri over its article about his business interests. For example, using conclusions and language from the report, George Monbiot went on to claim that the IPCC chairman had “no conflicts of interest“.

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The conflicted environmentalist

BERJAYA

(c) OurHikingBlog

About 10 days ago, George Monbiot responded to our post on his blog. While we are indeed delighted that he replied, a few clarifications are in order.

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George Monbiot: Scrubbing the record clean

(Cross-posted at Bishop Hill)

Background

Last November things began to go seriously wrong for the IPCC version of science. In all this, it is easy to forget how recently it was that green science, and the IPCC in particular, had a good reputation with the public for honesty and integrity.  It started after a leading Indian glaciologist called VK Raina public pointed out that he disagreed with the IPCC conclusion that the Himalayan glaciers would melt away within 30 years.  Raina said studies showed that at the present rate of melting, the glaciers would take hundreds of years to do so.   The Indian public had previously been told that the waters from the Himalayas would dry up within their lifetimes, so this good news was published on the front pages of the newspapers.

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Booker Vs Pachauri

In case, you’ve missed this – global warming has resulted in its fair share of lawsuits, around the world. So it was, that Rajendra Pachauri the UN’s bureaucrat who is heading the IPCC, hung the threat of a lawsuit over the Telegraph’s head. The sword would come crashing down, because Christopher Booker and Richard North, had overstretched their case accusing Pachauri a.k.a ‘Patchy’ of making millions of dollars arising from climate change mitigation.

Can you believe this nonsense that anyone can make any money off climate change? Just for thinking such thoughts, Booker deserves a few lawsuits going his way.

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ManBearChicken

BERJAYA

ManBearChicken

Take a good look at this. This creature is rarely seen—but we know it exists. It picks its victims well in advance. It preys on their minds slowly, using its chicken brainwaves. If all fails, it abducts them, at the very last minute. Rumor has it that this creature was spawned by ManBearPig, fraternizing with some chickens.

It is known that ManBearChicken thinks using the precautionary principle – for everything, including debating global warming skeptics.

Hot Russian Climate Porn

BERJAYA

Moscow Fog Porn © Trouw 2010

The first thing if you are a self-respecting catastrophic anthropogenic global warming proponent — you have to make use of the summer. I mean, if you cannot capitalize on the hot part of the year, what good are you to the movement?

But you see, there is a chasm to be bridged over. You have to switch over from constantly beating the “weather is not climate” drum during the winter, loosen up on your inhibitions and sense of shame, and start saying: “A-ha! Now here’s weather we can actually call climate”.

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The EPA flubs Amazongate

BERJAYA

Amazongate

The US Environmental Protection Agency says its authority to regulate environmental CO2 rests on the scientific veracity of the Nobel-prize winning IPCC reports.  As a federal agency, the EPA can be fully expected to preserve its own right to regulate the environment. However, getting the science right, is as important for this very science-driven policy-making agency. This is because the EPA claims so steadfastly that it is the science that lends weight to its own authority.

Now, the question is: if there is a conflict between getting the science right and preserving its own regulatory authority, which path will the EPA take?

The answer is evident from its ‘defense’ (page 21 – PDF document) of the IPCC’s Amazon statement.

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Stephen Schneider passes away

BERJAYA

Sometimes, a sudden unexpected event, knocks people off their comfortable ensconced orbits, offering a brief window of reflection.

One of Stephen Schneider’s main contribution to the global warming debate was his plea to “avoid endless dispute”. Schneider wrote about this in 2001 in Science magazine. He expressed similar sentiments in his interview to Stanford Alumni Magazine published in its July issue. His recent paper in PNAS was an effort in the same direction as well.

Stephen Schneider, although persuaded by the possibility of alarm in climate change, framed his policy advice in what he thought were practical terms. These ideas were reinforced and influenced, mutually, by the way he dealt with his illness. Read More »

The open secret of the IPCC Amazon

BERJAYA

(C) Carlos Peres

Roger Pielke Jr, indirectly, raised an important issue about the provenance of the IPCC Amazon statement at Climateaudit. “Why should we be content examining just the references quoted by IPCC Amazon defenders?” In doing so however, he succumbed to Amazon ‘jungle fever’ and started cutting through the thicket of citations himself.

At this stage, when the heavy lifting has been done, and done again, what would the outcome of any clear-eyed examination of the literature on the Amazon precipitation sensitivity be? That the IPCC’s statement on the Amazon in its Latin America chapter is unsubstantiated – is my guess.

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WWF-signed Media Matters press release creates more Amazon contradictions

We are aware of how entities in the climate change communication and advocacy business frequently direct the media how they should conduct their affairs. Apparently, some of these entities are slightly displeased that media outlets did their job during Climategate and public opinion about climate change advocacy and science tanked.

12 environmental advocacy organizations in the United States, including the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) signed a somewhat long list of complaints against “editorial boards and journalists” about their “misrepresentations” (that word again) . What interests us however, is a small passage, inserted presumably by the WWF, regarding the use of gray literature and documents by environmental pressure groups by the IPCC.

Here’s the relevant passage:

The Sunday Times also admitted it misrepresented the views of Dr. Simon Lewis, a Royal Society research fellow at the University of Leeds, implying he agreed with the article’s false premise and believed the IPCC should not use reports issued by outside organizations.

So, per the interpretation of this group, Simon Lewis believes that it is OK for the IPCC to use reports issued by ‘outside organizations’, and somehow the Sunday Times implied otherwise. Is this correct?

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Climategate Kidney Stone

For those who expected a positive outcome from the Climategate email review chaired by Muir Russel, knew that nothing good would come out of it, but hoped in a tiny corner of your hearts otherwise

Update (Jul 8 ’10): As noted in comments below: someone has ended up saying: “Three strikes, you are out”, but they put a question-mark at the end of it. Does that mean you are not out at the end of three strikes in climate change science? Everyone knows this is not the end.

1) Los Angeles Times: After three strikes, is the Climategate scandal out?

Amazongate: ‘Drastic’ changes required in IPCC report

Amazongate is only an error of improper referencing, the actual science behind the key claim is sound”. This is the message that has been hammered home repeatedly by experts involved in Amazon forest research. In their press releases, letters of complaint and blog posts, they have refused to concede something might be wrong with the report, and argued that journalists should have performed in-depth research before bringing any disrepute to the IPCC.

Even as we search high and low only to conclude that the exact claim does not appear to supported by the literature available to date, another argument has been advanced simultaneously in defence of the IPCC.  It says that the scientific evidence, the crucial pieces that go to make up this claim, bizarre though it might be, lie in many different papers. The IPCC report just brings them together – it paints an integrated picture of the trouble the Amazon region is in. So the defense of the IPCC is bi-layered. The science behind the imminent catastrophic destruction of the Amazon forests is true, and the IPCC makes a synthetic judgement to this effect. The only flaw is therefore one of citations.

The IPCC makes available its first order and second order drafts and reviewer comments. The question is: do these drafts and comments carry any indications or clues to the scientific summation and thinking process that is alleged to have taken place?

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PNAS study measures climate change expert credibility. Are you convinced?

It is difficult to get away from the Hewlett Foundation in matters of climate propaganda, it really is. More research pours out everyday that solidifies the position and status of the non-existent theory of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming ( I would say h/t: Michael Tobis, but I don’t wear a hat).

By the way, did you know why climate bloggers go skiing naked with just their hats on? Because 75% of the body’s heat is given off by ‘radiative physics’ to outer space from the head alone, that is why. (H/t: Jerry Seinfeld).

The story, jokes apart, is about a PNAS study – “Expert credibility in climate change“. One of the authors of this paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is Jacob Harold – a ‘Program Officer of Philanthropy’ with the Hewlett Foundation. The paper demonstrates, using nothing less than a Mann-Whitney U test that skeptics are not really scientists worth bothering about (p<0.000001).

The study we hear, has been funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

Now, how can a funding officer of a philanthropic organization be part of a project which is funded by his own organization? I am genuinely curious to know as I am totally ignorant in these matters.

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Czinger and the business of climate change: Part I

A sacred cash cow, With sickly tits…
-Lamb of God

Shawn Lane

Shawn Lane

The sacred cow in question – the music ‘industry’ – which consists of people well-versed in making lots of money off others people’s musical achievements, which did not have room for someone like Shawn Lane [1],  has been sickly for some time now. A thing called file-sharing throttled this gargantuan hegemon into a coma it is yet to completely wake up from [2].

But yet in its heyday, which was not too long ago, the music industry was one of the major ‘industries’ of the modern era. Total earnings in 1999 for example were in excess of $38 billion [3]. That’s right – we all bought CDs, tapes, and vinyls worth that much in 1999. Who doesn’t remember the music stores which breezily charged ridiculous prices for ‘import CDs’ and cared not they ever sold at all?

What climate change has got to do with the music industry – you might wonder. To answer this question, we need to head back to the mid 90′s and follow what some of today’s prominent players in the business of saving us from our own carbon-dioxide were up-to, those days.

Flash forward

Kevin Czinger, Yale Law School graduate and an assistant state attorney for New York City under prosecutor Rudy Giuliani [4] made a name for himself first, in the high-profile ‘Boesky’ cases in 1989 [5]. It was a successful prosecution of GAF Corporation’s insider trading and one of the earliest of its kind. The case went to mistrial twice and was clinched apparently by the efforts of Czinger [6]. Wrote the New York Times:

“Carl H. Loewenson Jr., an assistant United States attorney, attributed the victory to a ”powerful” summation delivered last week by his colleague, Kevin Czinger, and new testimony of two witnesses…”

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Secret IPCC Panel Meeting on future course of action

A secret IPCC panel met to discuss the future course of action needed to be taken to save everything. Major Douche, who took questions, expanded on the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns, a perennial favorite of climate policy discussion. The meeting came to an abrupt close when certain uncomfortable questions were raised.

Dates and venues for upcoming IPCC meetings were announced.

Naomi Oreskes defeats the merchants of doubt

Naomi Oreskes has written a new book. It is titled ‘Merchants of Doubt’, and it is about people who are selling ‘doubt’ etc etc -we’ve heard this all before. The story line developed in the book is summarized by the authors in, where else,  Nature magazine.

If you try to watch the Oreskes videos on Youtube, let me warn you – your brain might fall off your head, and you might need to go looking for a brain-whisperer to coax it back into your skull.

What is it, we are told, is new in her book? Apparently the latest argument is…, brace yourself — that the skeptics have borrowed techniques from…the tobacco industry (!).

After being blown to bits by that devastating revelation, we pull ourselves together to carry on with the rest of the article.

Ms Oreskes also states that similar strategies have been pursued, to combat the idea that ‘the pesticide DDT should have been banned’.

Let us just attribute that to poor sentence construction for now.

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Climate Fudge – Captain Photoshop strikes again

The climate Photoshop conundrum refuses to die down.

Recently Roger Pielke Jr had this to say about Der Speigel’s understanding of ‘Hide the decline’

Der Spiegel has “hide the decline” just about right, sorry.

Der Speigel said, of the late 20th century warming tree-ring data:

Tree-ring data indicates no global warming since the mid-20th century, and therefore contradicts the temperature measurements. The clearly erroneous tree data was thus corrected by the so-called “trick” with the temperature graphs

Since skeptics – scientist and layman alike – have a functioning brain and find it very hard to swallow this type of argument made by the IPCC, their head hurts constantly. The headache was incessant and disturbing until one fine day. On that fine day, in a special moment, the Climategate emails were leaked to the open world thus relieving everyone’s headache forever.

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The Integrity of Science (journal)

By now, the tediously-iconic, but certainly-appealing ‘stranded-polar-bear’ image Science Magazine featured in its ‘letter’, is widely known and mocked at in the climate blogs and beyond. The letter itself, a breathtaking display of arrogance is available at the Guardian (link) for the interested to peruse.

BERJAYA

(C) Jan Will Photography

What is at once interesting and disgusting, as many things in climate science are, is the reaction of the professional climate tops with their  dizzying spinning and sales-pitching, even in this dire hour, when paroxysms of utter self-loathing should incapacitate them instead.

I hope this takes you back to the Shakespearean* ‘Ah! the irony, it burns’ because now is the right moment for it. The above proceedings have transpired, let me remind you, in the context of a letter whose subject is the ‘integrity of science’.

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The funniest climate post

BERJAYA

Here is the funniest post in the entire history of climate blogs.

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Climate scientists can be advocates – Gregor Betz

BERJAYANature recently published two letters responding to Roger Pielke Jr’s review of books (pdf) in its previous issue – the first letter from one of the authors of the books under review, Prof Stephen Schneider and the other from Gregor Betz, who is lecturer at the Institute of Philosophy, University of Stuttgart.

Presumably due to word count limitations, a much abridged version of Betz’s original letter was published. Dr. Betz kindly provided the whole letter when I contacted him. The Nature version is to be found here. What is of interest is that Gregor Betz passionately defends the right of scientists, especially climate scientists  to advocate for specific policy measures. He has no doubt studied the matter in depth; he lists among his research interests the ‘philosophy of climatology’.

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Climate Money: the Hewlett and the Packard

Nature Magazine  – part-time climate pamphleteer and publisher of Mann’s trick, as expected, runs out of quality climate content every now and then. But the juggernaut must roll on – scientists everywhere must be kept reminded and the powers-that-be pacified that climate is on the agenda. This week, we are treated to the spectacle of not one, but two hurried hack-jobs on an area which is patently as removed from science as can be – but inadvertently very close to the heart of the climate issue – climate money. Nature is reduced to publishing press release write-ups for one piece and gives free reign to an economist-bureaucrat from the UN to peddle his pressure tactics in the other piece.

It is the the first article which concerns us. What is this doing in a science magazine?

Charities warm to climate Nature 464, 821 (2010)

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