Nov 24th, 2010
Greece will not be the only defaulter. Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and much of Eastern Europe will also face severe financial distress and possible default. History suggests that when a country is experiencing a solvency crisis, growth comes only after debt forgiveness, and many or most of those countries will also be forced into [...]
Nov 18th, 2010
Last week I suggested that slowly the consensus is shifting towards a recognition that Chinese growth may slow sharply in the next few years. When I discuss this prospect with analysts and investors, however, they almost always worry about two things. First, since China represents the largest component of global growth, it seems reasonable to [...]
Nov 10th, 2010
China reported an October trade surplus of $27 billion Wednesday. This is a very big number and not one likely to soothe anger directed at China. It will be very hard for China credibly to argue that it is trying to contribute to global growth while pulling in more and more foreign demand. Here is [...]
Nov 4th, 2010
Levitra buy: in the debate about global trade imbalances, we often hear it said that because Americans produce nothing that China exports to the US, any move to restrict Chinese imports to the US would have no employment effect on Americans. A forced contraction in Chinese exports would simply result in an equivalent increase in [...]
Oct 25th, 2010
The seemingly imminent and inexorable rise of the renminbi as a major levitra buy levitra, even dominant, reserve and trading currency, has been almost as widely heralded as the equivalent rise of the Japanese yen just twenty years ago.Even my normally skeptical friend Nouriel Roubini seems to think so. Here is an article from last [...]
Oct 14th, 2010
Earlier this week I had a debate on TV with a local economist on the subject of trade relations. We had the same debate about six and twelve months ago and in each case while I argued that the trade problems were almost intractable and trade relations would inexorably deteriorate levaquin online, he both times [...]
Oct 6th, 2010
Because of US and European pressure Beijing may allow much faster appreciation of the renminbi than it likes over the next year, but this will almost certainly be accompanied with policies that reduce the adverse employment impact. In my opinion the most likely such policy involves credit. If Beijing expands cheap credit, however, it may [...]
Sep 29th, 2010
Levaquin interactions: i am often asked, especially by my Peking University students, to list what I think is the sequence of steps China will take to address its economic imbalances. Remember that rebalancing, in the Chinese context, has a very specific definition. It means raising the consumption share of GDP. This is just a way [...]
Sep 26th, 2010
On Wednesday I will be putting up my piece on the politics of China’s adjustment process, but before doing that I wanted to mention a few recent particles worthy of comment. First, Jamil Anderlinin has a long and interesting article in today’s Financial Times on China’s fast-speed railways. The most interesting part of the article, for me [...]
Sep 22nd, 2010
Generic imitrex: after three weeks of traveling it is good to be back in Beijing, even though now I have to work through the mountain of very fattening mooncakes my very kind students have given me for Mid-Autumn Festival Day. While I was away it seems that there were a lot of rumors in the [...]
Sep 11th, 2010
I apologize for taking so long to write but for the past rwo weeks (and the next five days) I have been travelling for conferences and meetings. I spent last week in Buenos Aires at the 75th Anniversary Conference of the Banco Central de la Republica Argentina, where I gave a presentation on China and [...]
Aug 27th, 2010
Cialis online: on August 8 Credit Suisse published a study they had commissioned by Professor Wang Xiaolu of the China Reform Foundation. A lot of readers have asked on- and offline me to discuss this study in light of the entry I posted two weeks ago about Chinese consumption – and especially to explain whether this [...]
