If October baseball is about pitching, this year's NLCS, pitting the Philadelphia Phillies against the San Francisco Giants, has it in spades. The Giants led the National League in ERA and allowed the second fewest runs in the league. The Phillies were fourth in runs allowed, but adding Roy Oswalt to Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels at midseason gives them perhaps the most vaunted 1-2-3 rotation punch in all of baseball. After great regular seasons, both teams' pitching staffs have come through with big playoff performances. Roy Halladay no-hit the National League's best offense in his first playoff performance and Cole Hamels followed shortly after with a complete-game shutout of his own to close out the Reds. Tim Lincecum was nearly as good as Halladay, striking out 14 and shutting out the Braves' offense in Game 1, then Jonathan Sanchez struck out 11 Braves in Game 3. Those two performances are the two highest strikeout totals in the Giants' franchise's long playoff history.
For a third straight season, the NLCS will feature the Phillies against the NL West champion. In 2008 and 2009, the Dodgers only managed two wins total (one each year), as the Phillies brought back-to-back pennants to Philadelphia. This year the Phillies shoot for their third pennant in a row, while the Giants try for their first since 2002 and just their third of the division era.
Halladay vs. Lincecum. Oswalt vs. Matt Cain. Sanchez vs. Hamels. That's what we've got lined up through the first three games of the NLCS without even mentioning Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, Ryan Howard, Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff, or Andres Torres. So which pitching staff is the National League's best? Which offense can break through for enough runs to carry its team to a pennant?
Game 6: Giants 3, Phillies 2 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | Olson
Steve Phillips: NLCS Breakdown | Frankie Piliere: NLCS Scouting Report
Steve Phillips: NLCS Breakdown | Frankie Piliere: NLCS Scouting Report
Series Schedule
| Date | Game | TV | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 16 | Giants 4, Phillies 3 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | Olson | FOX | 7:57 p.m. |
| Oct. 17 | Phillies 6, Giants 1 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | FOX | 8:19 p.m. |
| Oct. 19 | Giants 3, Phillies 0 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | Moore | FOX | 4:19 p.m. |
| Oct. 20 | Giants 6, Phillies 5 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | Moore | FOX | 7:57 p.m. |
| Oct. 21 | Phillies 4, Giants 2 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | Moore | FOX | 7:57 p.m. |
| Oct. 23 | Giants 3, Phillies 2 | Box Score | Fletcher | Krasovic | Olson | FOX | 7:57 p.m. |
Why the Phillies Will Win
Because the Reds had gone 15 years without a playoff appearane and weren't expected to contend in the NL Central this year, I think there's a tendency to underestimate just how good of a baseball team they were, especially on the offensive side. The Reds led the National League in most important offensive categories this year and were healthy for their series against the Phillies. Then they got steamrolled by the Phillies' pitching staff, especially Halladay and Hamels. Those two held the Reds to just five hits and one walk over 18 innings, striking out 17 hitters and never allowing more than four batters in any inning in Games 1 and 3. It was as dominant as pitching gets, and it was against an offense that was much deeper and more accomplished this year than the one the Giants will be sending out in this series. With their three wins against Cincinnati figured in, the Phillies are 26-7 since September started. That includes five wins in six tries against the Braves team the Giants just squeaked past in their own Division Series. In the four games the Giants played against Atlanta, they outscored the Braves by two runs total. In the six games the Phillies played against the same Braves team since Sept. 20 (including some games before Martin Prado was injured), the Phils outscored the Braves 25-17.
It's the Phillies' pitching staff that everyone talks about, but it's the offense that could make the difference for them in this series. The Giants just can't match hitters like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, or Jayson Werth. Howard was last year's NLCS MVP and Utley is coming off of a strong Division Series. Someone is eventually going to have to score runs in this series, and at least at the outset of the series, the Phillies' lineup is much more likely to figure out the Giants' rotation than vice versa.
Phillies Official Roster
| Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Rollins (SS) | Brian Schneider (C) | Roy Halladay (RHP) | Brad Lidge (RHP) |
| Placido Polanco (3B) | Wilson Valdez (IF) | Roy Oswalt (RHP) | Ryan Madson (RHP) |
| Chase Utley (2B) | Mike Sweeney (1B) | Cole Hamels (LHP) | Jose Contreras (RHP) |
| Ryan Howard (1B) | Ben Francisco (OF) | Joe Blanton (RHP) | Chad Durbin (RHP) |
| Jayson Werth (RF) | Domonic Brown (OF) | Antonio Bastardo (LHP) | |
| Shane Victorino (CF) | Ross Gload (UT) | J.C. Romero (LHP) | |
| Raul Ibanez (LF) | Kyle Kendrick (RHP) | ||
| Carlos Ruiz (C) | |||
| Pitcher's Spot |
Why the Giants Will Win
As good as the Philies' offense looks on paper, they were mostly shut down by a Reds pitching staff that's vastly inferior to the one the Giants will be sending out to the mound in this series. If Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto are causing problems for an offense, what happens when they face Tim Lincecum? Halladay's no-hitter is rightly getting a great majority of the publicity, but Lincecum's 14-strikeout two-hitter was nearly as dazzling, and if his changeup and Jonathan Sanchez's slider look anything like the pitches the Braves flailed helplessly at, the Phillies may find that they won't have much more luck scoring runs than their division rivals. As much as the Giants' lineup doesn't stack up man for man with the Phillies, the Giants did get solid NLDS performances from Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and rookie Buster Posey. They didn't score a ton of runs, but they came up with the hits and runs they needed in both Games 3 and 4 and won both contests, despite trailing or being tied late. Maybe some poor Atlanta fielding helped them along the way, but the Phillies got the same benefit in Game 2 against the Reds. The Phillies have more talent on offense, but if they hit the way they did against the Reds that won't do much for them.
Remember that a best-of-seven series is still a short series. Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers alive right now, but so is Lincecum. Remember, he's the two-time defending NL Cy Young winner and might have been right in the mix for the award again this year except for a midseason slump that's now well behind him (beside his incredible start against the Braves, he put up a 1.94 ERA and averaged more than a strikeout an inning in six September and October starts). That means no matter what Halladay does in Game 1, the Phillies could find themselves down a game facing Matt Cain, who looked much better in the Division Series than his probable mound opponent Roy Oswalt did. After that, it's Jonathan Sanchez pitching at home in San Francisco. That's not an enviable position for any team to be in, no matter who their starters are. That's simply to say that in a best-of-seven series, there's not a lot of room for error even for a team as talented as the Phillies, and the Giants' pitching staff puts them in position to take advantage of any openings the Phillies give them.
Giants Projected Roster
| Lineup | Bench | Rotation | Bullpen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Torres (CF) | Mike Fontenot (2B) | Tim Lincecum (RHP) | Brian Wilson (RHP) |
| Freddy Sanchez (2B) | Nate Schierholtz (OF) | Matt Cain (RHP) | Jeremy Affeldt (LHP) |
| Aubrey Huff (1B) | Aaron Rowand (OF) | Jonathan Sanchez (LHP) | Sergio Romo (RHP) |
| Buster Posey (C) | Travis Ishikawa (IF) | Madison Bumgarner (LHP) | Javier Lopez (LHP) |
| Pat Burrell (LF) | Eli Whiteside (C) | Guillermo Mota (RHP) | |
| Juan Uribe (SS) | Edgar Renteria (IF) | Santiago Casilla (RHP) | |
| Cody Ross (RF) | Ramon Ramirez (RHP) | ||
| Pablo Sandoval (3B) | |||
| Pitcher's Spot |
Prediction
The bottom line is that the Phillies are the favorites here. Halladay and Lincecum may be a wash head-to-head, but Halladay is capable of pitching three games in the series where Lincecum will likely only go two (he's never started on three days of rest in his career). Hamels has an NLCS MVP and a World Series MVP to his name and if his start against Cincinnati is any indication, he's back in the form that won him both awards two years ago. The Giants' top three may be as talented as the Phillies', but the Phils have two pitchers that have pitched deep into the playoffs before to go with Halladay, while the Giants' young staff has never been this deep in the postseason.
And though the Giants' offense got the job done against the Braves, they just don't seem deep enough to really challenge that Philly pitching staff, especially since they'll have to outscore the Phillies' lineup. I think that their excellent pitching and a unique home field get the Giants one more win than the Dodgers got in either of the last two seasons, but I'm not going to believe an NL team can take the Phillies out until I see it. PHILLIES IN SIX.
Comments (Page 1 of 3)
In the NLCS eye believe it wiill be the Bugle Nosed Philly Funatic to win in 6 games.
In the NLCS eye believe it wiill be the Bugle Nosed Philly Funatic to win in 6 games.
Phillies - YESSS!!!!!!!!
It's gonna be the Giants this year! Were all tired of seeing the philles play in the world series!!They got there butt's kicked last year against the Yankees.
getting you butts kicked?? 6 game series lat year, dope...
Wow Jay is really smoking something good....H20 awaits the giants...this isn't the braves team that committed the errors to let you win that series and had no closer!
that was last year.phillies all the wayyyyyyyyyyy this. the yanks are in for a surprise this year. noooooooooooo way will they go all the way
Texas-San Fran----Yawn Zzzzzzzzzz.who cares. Probally going to be one of the least whatched series of all time.With Dallas in the toilet it might help a little.
What good does it do the Phillies if Halladay is beat starting him three times? The Giants pitching is stronger ... starters and in the pen! In their one Halladay match up this year they scored 5 against him and beat him. They beat Oswalt and Hammel also. The deadly Phillies batted the same .212 against the Reds weak pitching while the Giants batted the same against the much tougher Braves staff. The Giants built a huge amount of character playing in essence six weeks of playoff baseball and found ways to win tight games ... while the Phillies waltzed into the playoffs and their big hitters still not hitting with authority after injuries.
Don't get me wrong ... there will be no cake walk by either team ... but I like the odds for the underdog Giants to take the series. The cool thing is that as good as the Giants have been playing they have not peaked yet and are do to break out soon! Giants in six! Go Giants!!!
The Phillies waltzed into the playoffs?
Were you on Mars in September?
First off the Phils didnt waltz into the playoffs. They went 21-7 in September to knock off the braves and their "much tougher Braves Staff." Not to mention sweeping them in late September. The Giants found ways to win agaisnt an injury laden braves team making more errors than should ever be commited in the postseason. I agree that the Giants haven't peaked offensively but neither have the Phillies. The Giants barely squeaked past the Padres in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. Just remember you don't have Brooks Conrad at second base to give you game winning runs in the NLCS. Have fun getting dominated.
Hey reddoctober34--Check your statistics. The NL West is certainly not one of the weakest division in baseball or even in the National League. The NL West had two teams with more than 90 victories and two more teams with 80 or more wins -- while having only one team lose more than 82 games. The NL East had two teams win 90 or more games and only one other team won 80 games--and three teams lost more that 82 games. The NL Central had only one 90 game winner and four teams that could not even crack 78 wins -- including the Pirates with 105 losses. Stop guessing or making things up and check your facts.
You called it perfectly. Giants in six.
the philly fans are pathetic ! worst fans in sport! Giants in 6
FOR ALL U PHILLIES HATERS..GET USE TO IT!! THEY R THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL N ONCE AGAIN WILL PROVE IT..N FOR THE AS@HO$LE WHO SAID THE PHILLY FANS R THE WORSE IN SPORTS..AT LEASE WE HAVE SOMETHING TO CHEER FOR..AS FOR YOUR "SMALL GIANTS" WELL U NEVER SEEN A CHAMPIONSHIP FROM THEM THE LAST TIME WAS WHEN THEY WERE IN BROOKLYN IF THEY WON BACK THEN N WELL..THE 49ERS RAN THE 80'S THATS RIGHT THE 80'S N THIS IS 2010!! SO BEFORE U HATE ON PHILLY, AT LEAST HAVE A LEGIT ARGUMENT!!!!!!!!!!!
I rooted for the Phillies when they were the underdogs....now I will root for the Giants since the Phillies got the dream team of pitching now.
Phillies got the "Dream Team" of pitchers you say ?....eh, how's that working out for them ?
Giants are gonna DESTROY the phillies. phillies are just homo so yeh
YOUR CHOICES OF REASON SHOULD BE WHAT IF! LET THE SERIES BEGIN AND THE TEAM WITH THE EXPERIECE SHOW HOW AND WHY THEY MAKE IT TO THE WORLD SERIES.
PHILLIES WIN IN 5 GAMES.
I'm hoping for a good competitive series. From a Giants fan since 1962.