A Couple Of Notes About Trump

For all of the sound and fury about how the Birth Certificate is over nothing, it's worth noting that The Donald made The President blink over the issue.

Part of the reason why I think Trump was pushing the issue is that many people want someone to push back. Mitt Romney does it but he doesn't get any traction. Presumably because he doesn't go anywhere but Fox News to make his case*

Not picking on Mitt in particular but he was the first example that popped into mind.

In Trump's quest to be the text book example of the political populist, he's merely bomb-throwing. Not bad in and of itself but if he really wants to run for president, I think that person needs to be more. . . subtle in their approach.

There is a fine line to tread for conservatives running for president. One side is that they can't be too polarizing but yet they can't yield too much ground to the other side in terms of the argument. Ronald Reagan was the perfect example of that. With a small joke, he could slice his opponent's arm off and they wouldn't realize it until they tried to answer their cell phone later.

Anyway, when the leader of the free world backs down from a real estate developer with a bad comb-over, I would hate to think what would kind of capitulation would go on should Obama have to face down a real threat.

*A poor assumption on my part if in case he has gone on other networks. I'll cop to that much (Google? What's that?) but I think it's a safe guess. If he had and made his point, I'm pretty sure it would have been in the subtext of the blogosphere and more people would be comfortable in saying that he's their guy if he can handle the clowncar that is PMSNBC. But I digress.

Video: Racist Tea Partier Disrupts African American's Town Hall Meeting

By racist tea partier I really mean failed Air America radio host trying to heckle Congressman Allen West at a townhall meeting.



I still stand by my charge of RAAAAACISM though. She is white, Rep. West is black. What else could it be?

The Schadenfreude comes in about the 3:30 mark.

How Do You Say, "Potemkin Villages" In Mandarin?

A visual tour of China and it's ghost cities.

Via the sidebar at Ace's place.

A Couple Of Blog Cleaning Notes

About the lack of posting from this past week: I needed a break. Spring break rolled around and I was home with my kids so blogging took a backseat.

But as Jeff Goldstein has Darleen Click, Dan Collins has Dahlhalla and Little Miss Attila has, well, Little Miss Attila, I begged and pleaded for Viv to step out of semi-blogging retirement and throw up a few posts.

Thank you, Viv.

Things should be getting back to the usual incoherent postings as usual from now on out.

Gas Pump Activism

It cost me twenty dollars for a little over five gallons of gas today.

How did it get to that point?



That's one promise kept [PDF of the page available for download at the link]:

The next time you fill up, instead of watching in horror as the dollar amount on the pump races by as the gallons trickle into your tank, afix one of these to the pump.

Take care to not cover vital information regarding safety, etc. and don’t cover any advertising.

Then drive off with a smile on your face

Place Your Bets - 2012 GOP Candidates

Charles Krauthammer is my favorite political analyst and columnist currently. In his column today, he is giving odds for the Republican nominees in 2012. Here is a summary of the likely candidates:

1. Mitt Romney: 5-1


2. Tim Pawlenty: 5-1


3. Mitch Daniels: 6-1


4. Haley Barbour: 7-1


5. Newt Gingrich: 12-1


6. Michelle Bachmann: 20-1


7. Donald Trump: Lions have a better chance at winning the Super Bowl

He mentions but doesn't give odds for those he believes aren't running - Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.

He does discuss the very deep 2016 bench. They are Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley. Personally, I would add Allen West and Bob McDonnell to his list.

So based on this list of Krauthammer's odds and my previous post of electoral college strategy, upon whom are you willing to place your bet?

The Crystal Ball

Larry Sabato has his baseline 2012 electoral college map available. This is the map upon which all the campaign strategies (and predictions) will begin for candidates considering a run against Obama.

There are 270 electoral college votes needed for victory. Looking at the map and the baseline votes, the optimistic view suggests Republicans will need to gain 100 electoral votes beyond their solid red states (safe and likely). The "leans" Republican and "toss up" states total to 121 votes, if every one of those is won by a Republican nominee.

This is going to be extremely difficult and challenging, with or without a strong GOP nominee. Here's why. Several of those states are union states, which will fight to the death for Obama. They are going to focus on those states heavily with money and their SEIU thug tactics. Another factor will again be retirement states such as Florida and North Carolina. Those two toss up states alone comprise 44 electoral votes. It is close to impossible, basing estimates on this baseline, to see a Republican 2012 victory without those two states.

The good news here is that we have some newly-elected Republican governors in the union states and in Florida. If they are building strong GOP state chapters and the RNC is focusing on helping them organize, this could help a Republican nominee. Also, there are some redistricting factors that haven't even been realized yet and they could play heavily into the favor of the Republicans.

Bottom line: if the GOP puts up a weak candidate, who can't generate enthusiasm for a GOP "big tent" by reaching conservatives and independents, then the optimistic scenario is completely unattainable. Polarizing candidates won't win the electoral votes needed in the toss-up states. Difficult and controversial issues (entitlement spending and the national debt) are going to have to be treated with kid gloves by the GOP nominee. He or she will have to swing hard at Obama and present realistic and maybe even reserved solutions. It can't be emphasized enough how important it will be to select a candidate who can win. It may not be the favorite of the Tea Party or the establishment GOP or the independents or the social conservatives, etc..., but a Republican who can unseat Obama will certainly be my favorite.

I won't go into the gory analysis of the pessimistic viewpoint of the electoral votes needed by the GOP in 2012. I think the "optimistic" view sets a difficult enough tone by itself.

Not Satisfied With Repetitive Chants, Protesters Take Up Primal Screams And Grunts

Uhhh. Ummm. This is a protest?



Near as I can tell, he's protesting over this.