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The analysis here ignores the possibility of collusion among actors on a issue-by-issue basis, which ultimately translates to a multi-turn prisoner’s dilemma game, where the actors learn from the behaviour of the other over time.
Of the three, India, USA, and China, all possess leverage on the other to varying degrees. Realpolitik dictates that only those leverages that can be mapped to a set of capabilities can be considered as leverage, i.e., “India’s youth will make it a super-duper economy by 2028.3″ cannot be considered leverage India has over anyone else. So once we list such leverages on a pair by pair basis:
USA over China: Its large internal economy that supports Chinese economy
China over USA: Many trillions of $s of US treasury bonds.
India over USA: Nothing of note currently
USA over India: (1) Its large internal service economy that sustains a chunk of Indian middle class. (2) Indo-US deal/NSG access as leverage over Indian security (which has been mitigated by India placing its nuclear eggs in several baskets held by competing intertests).
China over India: (1) Nuclear weapons transferred to proxy states like Pakistan and North Korea, and providing them resources and capabilities to harm India (2) Using its UNSC veto power to prop up terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-toiba (3) Various illegal and criminal trade practices such as marking spurious drugs with “Made in India” (probably a lot more).
India over China: (1) India’s current independence in operation in the Indian Ocean to protect commerce and shipping lanes from Chinese Aggression (losing this independence would be a significant loss of leverage over china). (2) Security and Trade linkages with East Asian countries that are also threatened by Communist China’s Aggression
All of these supposed leverages can be neutralized if two of these entities collude against the third. Clearly, any such collusion will be done when both colluders see value in neutralizing any leverage possessed by the third.
USA has vested its Asia policy on Chinese hegemony in Asia, and neither possesses the strength to hurt the other’s interests without hurting their own interests, as things stand today.
India has no real leverage on either country, and it cannot allow any Indian capabilities that exist that can potentially moderate Chinese behaviour to be susceptible to US shenanigans. Let us recall that US actions have repeatedly protected Pakistan as they continued to commit terrorism against India for decades right upto this very day. There is no reason why the US would not duplicate such behaviour in an alliance with China against India.
This is probably stating the obvious, but the USA has no intention of reining-in Chinese aggression in Asia but it will be intent on acquiring capabilities to moderate the behaviour of all asian powers by playing them off each other. If at all it does moderate Chinese behaviour, it will only be in ways that are convenient to US interests, which may be divergent from Indian interests.
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Agree with you..we need to wake up fast. Our take at
http://southasianidea.com/analysis/usa-china-and-india-the-new-cold-war/
The analysis here ignores the possibility of collusion among actors on a issue-by-issue basis, which ultimately translates to a multi-turn prisoner’s dilemma game, where the actors learn from the behaviour of the other over time.
Of the three, India, USA, and China, all possess leverage on the other to varying degrees. Realpolitik dictates that only those leverages that can be mapped to a set of capabilities can be considered as leverage, i.e., “India’s youth will make it a super-duper economy by 2028.3″ cannot be considered leverage India has over anyone else. So once we list such leverages on a pair by pair basis:
USA over China: Its large internal economy that supports Chinese economy
China over USA: Many trillions of $s of US treasury bonds.
India over USA: Nothing of note currently
USA over India: (1) Its large internal service economy that sustains a chunk of Indian middle class. (2) Indo-US deal/NSG access as leverage over Indian security (which has been mitigated by India placing its nuclear eggs in several baskets held by competing intertests).
China over India: (1) Nuclear weapons transferred to proxy states like Pakistan and North Korea, and providing them resources and capabilities to harm India (2) Using its UNSC veto power to prop up terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-toiba (3) Various illegal and criminal trade practices such as marking spurious drugs with “Made in India” (probably a lot more).
India over China: (1) India’s current independence in operation in the Indian Ocean to protect commerce and shipping lanes from Chinese Aggression (losing this independence would be a significant loss of leverage over china). (2) Security and Trade linkages with East Asian countries that are also threatened by Communist China’s Aggression
All of these supposed leverages can be neutralized if two of these entities collude against the third. Clearly, any such collusion will be done when both colluders see value in neutralizing any leverage possessed by the third.
USA has vested its Asia policy on Chinese hegemony in Asia, and neither possesses the strength to hurt the other’s interests without hurting their own interests, as things stand today.
India has no real leverage on either country, and it cannot allow any Indian capabilities that exist that can potentially moderate Chinese behaviour to be susceptible to US shenanigans. Let us recall that US actions have repeatedly protected Pakistan as they continued to commit terrorism against India for decades right upto this very day. There is no reason why the US would not duplicate such behaviour in an alliance with China against India.
This is probably stating the obvious, but the USA has no intention of reining-in Chinese aggression in Asia but it will be intent on acquiring capabilities to moderate the behaviour of all asian powers by playing them off each other. If at all it does moderate Chinese behaviour, it will only be in ways that are convenient to US interests, which may be divergent from Indian interests.