There's been some discussion over at The Book Blog on whether or not batters swing too often at full count pitches. For me, this line of thought started when I read Dave Allen's research that showed that batters are more likely to swing 3-2 than 2-2. I'll get back to Dave's work in a moment, but first an aside on my theoretical understanding of the situation.

In equilibrium, pitchers want to throw strikes at such a rate that batters are indifferent toward swinging. The way I've figured it, and I really might have figured it wrong, that means that on 0-2 and 1-2 counts, pitchers want to throw at least 80% balls, while on 3-0 and 3-1 counts, they want to throw at least 70% strikes. In turn, that means that batters want to swing at 0-2 and 1-2 counts when they are at least 20% sure that a pitch is a strike and take on 3-0 and 3-1 when they are at least 30% sure that a pitch is a ball. The benefit of taking a pitch on 3-2 is obviously much greater than it is on 2-2, as the reward of a ball is a walk. What I've found unique about the 3-2 count, and again, my theoretical prediction might be off, is that it is the only hitter's count that dictates that pitchers throw more balls than strikes and that batters swing at pitches that are probably balls.

Back to Dave's work, because it turns out that he did a followup study asking, "do batters swing too often in a full count?" Dave showed the difference in value between taking a pitch and swinging at a pitch based on pitch location. The area in which batters are just as well off swinging as they are if they were to take should also be the area where batters swing 50% of the time. However, on a full count, batters swing 75% of the time in that area, according to Dave's research. I really like his methodology, and to me it is proof that batters do swing too often on full counts. Unless I'm missing some flaw, which is why I tried to repeat Dave's process at the player level.

The first player I tried was Albert Pujols, and he proved to be a good test case.

Red means swing, blue means take, and white means indifference. The black contour line estimates the player's 50% swing rate.

The best hitter in the game seems to know exactly when he should be indecisive, so to speak.

My hope was that this type of analysis would vindicate guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Brett Gardner, above average hitters with unique hitting styles. Unfortunately, the data indicate that Vlad swings at too many pitches out of the zone and Gardner at too few. It's easy to say that Jeff Francoeur should learn to take a pitch, but to offer such advice to Vlad is tricky, and probably wrong. And if umpires didn't call such an absurd strike zone to Gardner, it's possible that he would be correct to swing so little.

One hitter who never swings, and correctly so, is Elvis Andrus. He must recognize his historic lack of power.

And J.D. Drew knows where his bread is buttered.

It was difficult to find evidence of any batter who should swing at pitches out of the strike zone. I was hoping that would be the case with Vlad. Miguel Cabrera is one such batter who might have good reason to be a free swinger.

And lastly, Colby Rasmus is the most extreme low-ball swinger in the league, and this type of graph shows that he's also a low-ball hitter.

I like the type of information that these charts display. Using it as a prescriptive tool to say how often a specific batter should swing would be wrong, but I continue to think that on a league-wide level, batters swing too often on full counts.

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This year, scoring is down by almost a quarter of a run per game.

At the beginning of the season, Mike Fast showed that fastball velocities were rising. FanGraphs data indicates a continued upward trend. I spotted only two pitchers from 2009 who threw 96 MPH and were out of the league in 2010 (Juan Morillo and Tyler Yates), while there were about a dozen rookies who came in throwing that (Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Walden, Stephen Strasburg, Dan Cortes, Andrew Cashner, Alexi Ogando, Joe Bisenius, Jhan Martinez, Chris Sale, Greg Holland, Sergio Santos, Gregory Infante). I suppose it's normal for there to be more hard-throwing rookies entering the league than hard-throwing veterans retiring. Still, only 30 pitchers averaged 96, and that nearly half of them were rookies sounds exceptional.

Also, I checked to see whether the strike zone has changed. Red zones indicate a higher rate of called strikes, and blue lower.

I'm not too confident in drawing any conclusions from this, but it appears that umpires might have gotten better at calling strikes on pitches at the knees.

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Cliff Lee and the Texas Rangers dropped the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 of the American League Division Series last night, setting up an enticing matchup with the defending World Series champions.

The Rangers and Yankees respective run prevention units profile similarly. Each features a dominant ace, capable depth rounding out their rotations, and good bullpens where all roads lead to their shut-down Closers. Defensively, both teams are good, too. The Yankees probably have the outfield advantage with Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner patrolling, while the Rangers enjoy the infield edge thanks to their stud middle infield of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.

Offensively, it’s an entirely different story. They’re both very good with the bats – the Yanks led the AL in runs and the Rangers were fourth – but they go about their work at the plate in different styles. Lineup anchors for Texas like Mike Young, Josh Hamilton and Kinsler all see fewer pitchers per plate appearance than the league average. And of course, one of the great all-time free swingers in baseball history is Vladimir Guerrero. He’s in the mix too, although he has struggled over the second half of the season. Only the Baltimore Orioles saw fewer pitchers per plate appearance than the AL West champions.

On the other hand, New York saw the most pitchers per plate appearances in the American League other than Boston or Tampa Bay. It’s really only Robinson Cano that will hack away for the Bombers, and it’s not like his approach needs tweaking. He makes it work to the tune of MVP candidacy. Even more troubling for Rangers pitching, not only can the Yanks get ahead in the count, but they hit better than any other team in baseball once there.

This contrast in hitting styles is where the ALCS will hinge. Right off the bat, the Yanks will have a chance to leverage their patience. C.J. Wilson had a nice year, but his traditional numbers outpace his peripherals. The biggest blemish on Wilson’s performance record is his high walk rate, 4.10 per 9 innings. He also throws his first pitch for a strike and induces swinging strikes on pitches outside the zone at a below average rate. Grooving the first one and forcing otherwise patient batters to chase bad balls are two tools the high-walk pitcher can turn to, but Wilson seems to have neither. The Yankees will be a test for him.

As you might imagine, Wilson struggled in three starts against New York this season, pitching just 14.1 innings and walking 5.65 guys per 9 innings. But Wilson’s smart (follow @str8edgeracer on twitter), and he doubtless knows his weakness and his opponent’s strength. In Tampa Bay for Game 2 of the ALDS, he limited his walk total to just two while facing a team even more patient than the Yankees. He’s a good pitcher with great make-up. I’m not counting him out by a long shot.

While Wilson could be a problem for Texas, Lee is the prototype to combat a patient offense. He walks nobody, and pounds the zone with pitches that move every which way. He goes in Game 3 for the Rangers at Yankee Stadium.

For the Yankees, their pitchers will have some latitude to expand the zone thanks to the Rangers’ approach. This is a risky game, however, because the Rangers righty-stacked lineup will crush mistakes from lefties. Vlad, Nelson Cruz, Kinsler and Young all murder southpaws, and if C.C. Sabathia or Andy Pettitte decide they want to get Texas to chase and they don’t bite, the Rangers’ righties should see some nice pitches to hit.

The pitcher-batter match-ups in this series should be terrific, a study in Game Theory from start to finish. I give the edge to the Yankees because of their superior approach at the plate. But it’s close, and if Sabathia and Pettitte are off even the slightest bit, it’s not hard to envision a scenario in which the Yankees head home to face Cliff Lee down 2-0. Watch individual pitches, match-ups, strategies and yes, umpiring within each plate appearance. It promises to be fascinating, and it's where this series will be won.

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With a no-hitter and four shutouts in the League Division Series and no team scoring more than seven runs in any single game, it seems as if pitching has dominated the postseason thus far. Perhaps it has but not to the extent that I thought before checking the numbers.

Through the first 14 games, the eight teams have combined to score 89 runs, an average of 6.36 per game. Don't get me wrong. Run prevention is down from the regular season. Way down. As in 38 percent down. But runs per game are off just 19 percent vs. the 2009 LDS and only 11 percent excluding the two contests in Colorado. Meaningful but not off the charts.

Like this year, no team scored more than seven runs in any LDS last fall. John Lackey and Darren Oliver combined to throw the lone shutout in Game One against Boston. In 2010, Oliver once again was part of a combined shutout, completing the final 2 1/3 innings to preserve the 6-0 whitewash for C.J. Wilson and Darren O'Day in Game Two against Tampa Bay.

Roy Halladay threw the most talked-about game of all, tossing only the second no-hitter in the history of the postseason. Halladay walked one and struck out eight while facing only one batter over the minimum as Philadelphia beat Cincinnati to set the tone in Game One in what became a three-game sweep. Teammate Cole Hamels closed out the series with another shutout, allowing just five hits and no walks while fanning nine Reds.

As impressive as those shutouts were, Tim Lincecum pitched the most dominating game of them all in terms of Game Score. The Freak pitched a complete-game shutout, striking out 14 while giving up only two hits and one walk.

Both Halladay and Lincecum will be well rested when they square off in Game One of the NLCS on Saturday. Neither starter will have thrown a pitch in competition in at least nine days. At first blush, it would seem as if the long rest may benefit the 5-foot-11, 170-pound Lincecum slightly more than the 6-6, 230-pound Halladay. However, it should be noted that the latter threw his no-no nine days after his final regular season start, which incidentally was a two-hit, no-walk, complete-game shutout on longer than normal rest.

Over in the ALCS, the New York Yankees have to be loving the fact that Cliff Lee and David Price will be facing one another tonight, meaning neither starter is likely to face the Bronx Bombers until Game Three on Monday. That said, the winner of tonight's rubber match will have their ace ready to go in the finale on four days' rest should the ALCS go the distance.

But first things first as there will be no ALCS for the losing team tonight. Only golf clubs and fishing rods.

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It's hard to remember sometimes but Barry Bonds had just an awful reputation for failing to come through in the postseason by the time his stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates ended. This excerpt from a 2001 article for Slate that Ben McGrath wrote captures the sentiment well, though it incorporates some of his playoff failures as a Giant, too.

In five playoff series for the Pirates and Giants—all losing efforts—Bonds has batted .196 with just one home run and six RBIs over a span of nearly 100 at-bats. In 1997, the San Francisco Examiner declared, "Barry Bonds continues to struggle in clutch situations, to the point where failures now are almost expected." Last month, the New York Times' Murray Chass quipped, "If Bonds had played for the Yankees, George Steinbrenner would have called him Mr. O, not for October but for zero."

At the end of the 1992 season - Bonds's seventh in Major League Baseball, Bonds had won two MVP awards and was in line for an enormously lucrative free agent contract. Still, in 83 postseason plate appearances he had hit just .191/.349/.265. His Pirates had lost three consecutive National League Championship Series and time and again, when a key Bonds hit might have made all the difference, he came up short.

At the end of the 2010 season - Joe Mauer's seventh in Major League Baseball, Mauer has won an MVP award and should have a second. He's arguably off to the best start of any catcher in Major League Baseball history. His power stroke comes and goes, but that part of his game is just icing. He's phenomenal with or without hefty slugging totals. The Minnesota Twins rewarded Mauer with a $184 million extension this season.

Like Bonds, Mauer has been awful in the postseason. He's never won a game in the playoffs and is a career .286/.359/.314 hitter in 35 plate appearances. This past American League Division Series, Mauer hit .250/.308/.250. He came up short again.

It's interesting to contrast the way fans and media treated Bonds to the way they treat Mauer. Both were/are superstars en route to Hall of Fame careers who failed miserably under the brightest spotlight. Aside from a corner here or there of the internet, there doesn't seem to be much anger or ridicule towards Mauer. The same could hardly be said of Bonds. His detractors reveled in his high-profile failures.

That may be for any number of reasons. I'd like to think it's because we know postseason performance deviating from career norms to the upside or down is most likely due to the sample size than some innate character trait in the player in question. A more informed fanbase and media set are much more likely to cut the guy who falls short some slack. It happens, or so we've learned as the SABR movement has made its way mainstream.

One could also attribute this phenomenon to their respective dispositions. Bonds, by many accounts, was a jerk. Mauer, on the other hand, has a great reputation as an individual.

There's another potential explanation, of course. And while I don't want to use this space for social or political commentary, I'd urge you to consider alternative reasons why Mauer seems to escape media criticism while so many took such great joy in Bonds's struggles.

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According to Press-Telegram columnist Bob Keisser, 17 former Long Beach State baseball players performed in the major leagues this year. "No other college team can boast of having that many players in the majors in 2010."

Known as Dirtbags during their college years, the group is headlined by three All-Stars, namely American League Most Valuable Player candidate Evan Longoria, National League Player of the Month for September Troy Tulowitzki, and MLB strikeout leader Jered Weaver. There isn't a university in the country that came close to duplicating the feats of this trio.

Tulowitzki and Weaver were college teammates in 2003 and 2004. Tulo and Longoria played side-by-side in the infield on the 2005 club. All three players were drafted in the first round by their respective teams: Weaver in 2004 by the Los Angeles Angels, Tulowitzki in 2005 by the Colorado Rockies, and Longoria in 2006 by the Tampa Bay Rays.

Longoria hit .294/.372/.507 with 46 2B, 5 3B, 22 HR, 72 BB, 96 R, 104 RBI, and 15 SB in 20 attempts for the Rays this season. He was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2008 and has been named to the All-Star team in each of his first three MLB seasons while being the recipient of a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger in 2009. Longoria, who turned 25 last week, led the AL and NL with 7.7 Wins Above Replacement (brWAR) in 2010.

Tulowitzki posted career highs in AVG (.315), OBP (.381), and SLG (.568) this season. He hit 15 HR during the final month, including 14 in a 15-game stretch when the Colorado Rockies won 13 times to climb within one game of the NL West lead. The slick-fielding shortstop missed 33 games with a fractured wrist in June and July but still managed to jack 27 HR in only 122 G and 529 PA. He turned 26 yesterday.

In addition to leading the majors in Ks, Weaver topped the AL in GS (34); finished second in K/BB (4.315); third in IP (224.1), K/9 (9.35), and WHIP (1.07); fifth in ERA (3.01), ERA+ (135), and FIP (3.06); seventh in H/9 (7.50); and ninth in BB/9 (2.17). The 6-foot-7 righthander ranked second among pitchers in brWAR (5.4) and fifth in fgWAR (5.9). He pitched six or more innings in 31 of his 34 starts, ranking second in quality starts with 27. Unfortunately, Weave had the 10th-worst run support among 43 qualified starters, which negatively affected his W-L record (13-12). The five-year veteran turned 28 last week. Unsigned beyond 2010, he will be entering the second of his three arbitration seasons in 2011.

Longoria and Tulowitzki have two of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball. It's hard to believe but Longo made only $950,000 this year and will earn just $2 million in 2011, $4.5M in 2012, and $6M in 2013. The Rays have a $7.5M team option with a $3M buyout in 2014, an $11M option in 2015, and an $11.5M option in 2016. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the latter option may increase to $14M based on rankings in the MVP voting. Tulo, meanwhile, will earn $5.5M in 2011, $8.25M in 2012, and $10M in 2013. The Rockies have a $15M team option with a $2M buyout in 2014. At signing, Troy's deal was the largest ever for a player with less than two years of MLB service.

In alphabetical order, the following ex-Dirtbags also competed in the big leagues this year (with years at Long Beach State in parentheses): John Bowker (2002-04), Andrew Carpenter (2006), Bobby Cramer (2000-01), Bobby Crosby (1999-2001), Brad Davis 2002-04), Greg Dobbs (1999), Danny Espinosa (2006-08), Marco Estrada (2005), Jason Giambi (1990-92), Paul McAnulty (2002), Cesar Ramos (2003-05), Jeremy Reed (2000-02), Jason Vargas (2004), and Vance Worley (2006-08).

Crosby was a first-round draft pick (25th overall) by the Oakland A's in 2001. The shortstop was named the AL Rookie of the Year in 2004 when he hit .239/.319/.426 with 34 2B and 22 HR in 151 games and 623 plate appearances. Giambi, a second-round pick by the A's in 1992, won the AL MVP in 2000 when he hit .333/.476/.647 with 43 HR, 137 BB, and 137 RBI. The lefthanded slugger led the league in OBP, BB, and OPS+ (187). He placed second in the MVP voting the following season after topping the circuit in OBP (.477), SLG (.660), OPS (1.137), OPS+ (198), 2B (47), and BB (129).

After Longoria, Tulowitzki, and Weaver, the next most valuable player in 2010 as measured by WAR was Vargas. The Seattle Mariners southpaw started 31 games, tossed 192.2 innings, and produced a 2.15 K/BB ratio, 1.25 WHIP, and a 3.78 ERA. The 27-year old succeeded by throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park. Nearly 90 percent of his pitches were either fastballs or changeups.

Look for Espinosa and Worley to make a bigger splash in the NL East in 2011. Espinosa played shortstop at Long Beach State and in his three years in the minors but was primarily a second baseman after the Washington Nationals called him up when rosters were expanded on September 1. He belted three homers in his first 15 plate appearances and slugged six for the month. The combination of striking out too often (30 times in 112 PA) and hitting only .239 on balls in play reduced his batting average to .214 but a slugging average of .447 was more in-line with his MiLB production (.455). Espinosa, a member of the U.S. team in the Futures Game in 2009 and 2010, figures to compete for the second base job for the Nats next spring. At worst, he should make the team as a backup middle infielder.

Worley was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 20th round out of McClatchy HS (Sacramento, CA) in 2005 and the third round after his junior year at Long Beach State in 2008. He signed and combined to go 3-2 with a 7.57 K/BB ratio, 1.07 WHIP, and a 2.66 ERA in 11 GS and 61 IP in the New York Penn League (Short-Season A) and South Atlantic League (Low Class A) that summer. Worley struggled in 2009 at Double A Reading (7-12, 2.04 K/BB, 1.38 WHIP, and 5.34 ERA) but bounced back in 2010 (10-7, 2.59 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP, and 3.36 ERA) while earning a trip to the big leagues this summer before making his Triple A debut for Lehigh Valley. The bespectacled righthander went 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA for the Phillies, highlighted by five scoreless innings against the Atlanta Braves one week after his 23rd birthday in the second-to-last game of the season. He should get a good look next spring.

Since former Long Beach head coach Dave Snow's arrival in 1989, at least two players from every Dirtbags team reached the major leagues. I'll let Keisser, who also serves as the Press-Telegram's beat writer for Long Beach State, take it from here.

The 1989 team sent Kyle Abbott, Darrell Sherman and Tom Urbani to the majors.

Between 1999 and 2006, at least four players from every team has reached the majors, topped by a stunning eight players from the 2002 team - Abe Alvarez, John Bowker, Brad Davis, Chris Demaria, Paul McAnulty, Carlos Muniz, Jeremy Reed and Jered Weaver.

The 2004 team that came an inning away from a College World Series berth sent six players to the majors and all six were active this season - Bowker, Davis, Cesar Ramos, Troy Tulowitzki, Jason Vargas and Weaver.

It isn't a stretch to say the parade won't stop any time soon, either. Third baseman Adam Heether, outfielder Shane Peterson, shortstop Devin Lohman, and pitchers Jared Hughes, Nick Vincent, Andrew Liebel, Bryan Shaw, Adam Wilk, Charlie Ruiz and Jake Thompson are all performing well enough in the minors to warrant an eventual shot at the majors.

Mike Weathers succeeded Snow in 2001 and resigned after the 2010 season. He turned the program over to Troy Buckley, who served as the school's pitching coach from 2001-2007 and associate head coach in 2010. He was the minor league pitching coordinator with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2008 and 2009. Buckley worked with Carpenter, Cramer, Estrada, Ramos, Vargas, Weaver, and Worley in his previous stint at Long Beach State. It will be interesting to see if he can be as successful at producing position players as the two previous head coaches.

As Keisser concludes, "It's about the foundation that's been built, one that includes a ramp to the majors."

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