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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2010
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BERJAYA

What If North Korea Collapses?

That's a 'black swan' we should be prepared for, writes Fareed Zakaria

BERJAYA
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff

Posted Oct 18, 2010 1:50 PM CDT
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(Newser) – It’s entirely possible—if not likely—that the North Korean regime could collapse in the near future, “and at that point, unless there is careful planning among South Korea, China and the United States, all hell will break loose,” writes Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post. Kim Jong Il’s bizarre succession maneuvers look “designed to stabilize a situation that is not stable,” says one US diplomat. North Korea’s currency took a disastrous hit this year, and food shortages are common.

With mobile phone use exploding in the country, it's possible many will realize how prosperous China and South Korea are, and flee across the border. That could bring down Pyongyang and force reunification, leaving some big questions: Would the united Korea remain American-friendly? Would it keep its nukes? Would US troops remain there? And if so, how will China react to having a nuclear-armed American ally next door? “Forget genteel rows over the yuan’s value—this is what could produce serious geopolitical instability.”

A South Korean activist sprays paint on portraits of Kim Jong Il, center, his youngest son Kim Jon Un, right, and his late father Kim Il Sung during a rally to oppose the North's succession.
A South Korean activist sprays paint on portraits of Kim Jong Il, center, his youngest son Kim Jon Un, right, and his late father Kim Il Sung during a rally to oppose the North's succession.   (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
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COMMENTS
Showing 3 of 10 comments
BERJAYA
shonangreg
Oct 18, 2010 9:44 PM CDT
If the North fell, South Korean officials would dominate the new government (look at West and East Germany), the North's nukes would be publicly dismantled and recycled (they wouldn't need them), and Korea would move to greatly improve relations with China (why would they not?). Korea would become the bridge between China and the West, like a super Hong Kong with irrevocable sovereignty. The strategic role to the West and China of a unified Korea would eclipse that even of Japan.
BERJAYA
DontLikeYou
Oct 18, 2010 9:17 PM CDT
It's not really our problem. China has propped up this rogue regime. Let them deal with the aftermath along with the South Koreans.
BERJAYA
JoeQ
Oct 18, 2010 6:04 PM CDT
Maybe Fidel would take them in. Sort of a Mariel boat lift in reverse. Do they like baseball?
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