Vaclav Smil, professor of Environment and Environmental Geography at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, has written a new book called “Energy Myths and Realities.” In the book, he looks at a number of things he considers myths:

1. The future belongs to electric cars
2. Nuclear electricity will be too cheap too meter
3. Soft-energy illusions (local generation, etc.)
4. Running out: Peak oil and its meaning
5. Sequestration of carbon dioxide
6. Liquid fuels from plants
7. Electricity from wind
8. The pace of energy transitions

Smil is well-respected in the world of energy, so I think it is also worthwhile looking at what he has to say. I think that it is even worthwhile looking at what he has to say about peak oil, because it may give us some insights as to where our thinking needs to be refined, or better explained, if it is to be understood by the “mainstream”.

I might note that Smil is not entirely in disagreement with peak oil. He says,

It is fairly probable that its [conventional crude oil’s] extraction will peak within the next two decades, and it is inevitable that its share of the world’s primary energy supply will continue to decline.

A major point he makes in the peak oil section is that he is not convinced that peak oil will have a terrible impact, even if the decline does occur in the near future—something that quite a number of Oil Drum readers would agree with.

OPEC turns 50... What now?

The challenge is not so much now, but in the medium term. Ministers here are talking about spare capacity – basically the ability to produce more oil when demand justifies such action. That demand is not expected in the next 18 months, but certainly in the next 2-3 years, due to the growth of China and less so India.

This is a guest post by Cameron Leckie, known on The Oil Drum as leckos. Cameron is an officer in the Australian army. He is a member of ASPO Australia and lives in Brisbane with his wife and two young children.

The other day, whilst visiting the in-laws, I was involved in a conversation that in my view opened a window to the future of technology. My mother in law, who works in a small retail outlet was packing her lunch. My wife asked why she was putting an ice block in with her lunch box. The answer was that the owner of the shop had removed the staff refrigerator (and turned off the hot water system) to save a couple of hundred dollars a year. As someone who strongly believes that the most likely outcome for a debt based economic system approaching a world of declining net energy supplies is economic contraction and lower standards of living (at least materially), this started me thinking about the process by which industrial civilisation may abandon some of the technologies that we currently take for granted.

There are many reasons why we humans adopt new technologies, but in my view the root cause is that the benefit provided by a new technology outweighs its cost. Importantly costs and benefits can be measured both in financial terms and by other less tangible factors, something that will be important when considering which technologies are abandoned. One reason that we may abandon a technology is the flip side of the reason for its adoption - that the costs outweigh the benefits obtained. Thus the fridge has been abandoned because the cost of maintaining it outweighs the benefit of keeping lunch cold. Other reasons might be that the technology is no longer supportable (for example, If you cannot access fuel, your car is not going anywhere) or another technology appears/reappears to replace it.

In this post, I would like to propose a theory by which some, or potentially many, modern technologies could be abandoned. This is an important issue because of its implications for government policy, business investment and of course society as a whole. I will briefly examine the relationship between technology and complexity, detail a theory to explain how technologies might be abandoned and finally propose some questions for discussion.

U.S. deal with European oil firms hobbles Iran Air

TEHRAN - A recent agreement between four of Europe's largest oil companies and the United States aimed at further isolating Iran is already having an impact, with Iran Air, the Islamic Republic's national carrier, unable to refuel its planes in most of Europe.

The fueling problem follows a new push by the Obama administration to move beyond the strict letter of sanctions it imposed to a broader attempt to discourage international businesses from dealing with Iran.

It also illustrates a shift away from an earlier U.S. policy of reaching out to the Iranian people and trying to target mostly state organizations central to Iran's nuclear program. Officials now admit that the increased pressure is hurting ordinary Iranians but say they should blame their leaders for the Islamic Republic's increasing isolation.

Renewable energy pioneer Dr Hermann Scheer has passed away on October 14 in Berlin. Scheer was President of the European Association for Renewable Energy (Eurosolar), Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy (WCRE), winner of the Alternative Nobel Prize and Member of the German Bundestag. He was 66 years old.

Scheer entered the German parliament as a Social Democrat member in 1980 and was instrumental in introducing Germany’s solar roof programmes and the Renewable Energy Law. The Renewable Energy Law included the now widely replicated feed-in tariff. As a result a substantial percentage of the world's wind farms and its solar panels are located in the country.

ANALYSIS - U.S. power supply inadequate for economic recovery

(Reuters) - U.S. utilities withstood one of the hottest summers in a decade without major blackouts, but the country might not have all the generation it needs if the U.S. economy rebounds quickly.

U.S. electric use jumped 4.2 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier, as the economy began to improve. The Energy Information Administration said July and August heat -- especially across the Midwest and Northeast -- may push second-half 2010 power use 5.2 percent above a year earlier.

On Thursday, October 7, the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) conducted a congressional briefing on challenges of the oil industry to keep pace with rising global demand, and the potential implications for oil prices, national security and the world economy.

The panelists included a combination of some people in Washington DC for the ASPO-USA meeting (Robert Hirsch, Tad Patzek, and Arthur Berman) and some people currently or recently involved with government offices (including Franklin Rusco, Director of Energy at the GAO, and Guy Caruso, Former Administrator of the EIA). I found it especially interesting that the latter two, especially Guy Caruso, were concerned about oil supply. As head of the EIA from 2002 to 2008, Guy Caruso did not seem to voice these concerns.

This video can be found at Can Oil Production Meet Rising Demand? An mp3 recording and copies of presentations can be found at the EESI site. Below the fold I show some of the slides and mention a few of the comments made by the presenters.

The overall theme of the presentations seemed to be that there are many types of risks that supply will be inadequate to meet demand--rising demand from emerging economies, inadequate investment, and oil that cannot be pulled out of the ground fast enough, even though the appearance is that there is plenty of oil available. The result is likely to be high prices leading to recession. Alternatives are not scaling up quickly enough to be likely to be very helpful for a very long time - 25 years according to Art Berman.

Iraq to fight for greater share of OPEC rations

At its most modest, Iraq presents its plan as a "doubling of output in a few years". Stated more boldly, however, regional and global security and economic imperatives kick in.

Baghdad wants to overtake Tehran, to its east, as a major producer before knocking over the world's No.1 producer - Riyadh, to its south. Jealous of its historic standing as the world's biggest petrol station, Saudi Arabia has already revealed plans to push its own oil capacity - about 11 million barrels a day - beyond the 12 million barrels a day mark.

One of the helpful aspects of the ASPO-USA organization is that they post the videos and presentations that were given at their conferences. Obviously these need to be tweaked after being recorded, and so do not go up immediately but, for example, they have just posted the video of the Jeff Rubin talk on their site. I am going to conclude my summary of the conference itself with this report. I was not able to stay for the final afternoon, and so Gail has kindly furnished a summary that I will add to cover that section of the Conference. As usual I will then give a short summary of what I felt were the highlights, but which is more opinion that content – the goal of these initial posts.

Turning therefore to the Saturday morning meetings, these began with a slight change, since Terry Backer the scheduled speaker was, unfortunately, ill. Paul, one of his advisors, spoke on his behalf, noting that Connecticut – where they are from – has no indigenous coal, oil or natural gas. They had a plan for moving forward that had received support for a significant effort to insulate houses, but unfortunately even though it would have provided a number of jobs, it fell victim to the recession. They are now looking to see the potential for micro-hydro in the state.

The first session was chaired by Ted Patzek and was focused on the Gulf oil spill and the likely consequences.

Gazprom warns EU to stop gas industry reform

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Gazprom warned the European Union on Thursday that proceeding with the bloc's gas industry reforms would mean the end of stable supplies as the Russian energy giant would send more gas to Asia.

Gazprom's export chief, Alexander Medvedev, said that Europe's gas-sector initiatives would build "a sort of Great Wall of China" that would cut off his company, which supplies a quarter of the EU's gas needs, from gas transmission infrastructure.

EU legislation requires pipelines to be open to all companies, which threatens Gazprom's position in countries such as Poland where it is a dominant supplier via its Yamal pipeline.