“I’m not much of a poker player, but the analogy I’ve been using is that I’m sitting there and I’ve been dealt a six and an eight. And the guy across from me has two kings showing. And I’m hoping for the five, the seven and the nine. But it is possible.”

That is what Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski has to say about her write-in chances against Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. It is a long shot, but Murkowski does have a chance. Most of that rests on the decades of name recognition from her father’s service in public office and her incumbency.

Write-in campaigns are usually the domains of extremists and fringe candidates, but it has been used in cases not so different from Murkowski’s plan.

There is usually a very strong personality or campaign issue that pushes write-in campaigns. That may be Murkowski’s downfall. She is not a charismatic campaigner. There is also a lack of a single issue to propel her to victory, unless it is to stop the Tea Party from taking over the Republican Party. However, that is not going to win any elections.

Murkowski’s name should not be a problem, as Alaska’s chief election official, Gail Fenumiai, said that as long as it can reasonably be determined that the voter was trying to write-in Murkowski then the votes will be counted. That means misspellings of Murkowski will work and even writing in “Lisa M” will be counted.

It is estimated that Murkowski also has $1 million in cash leftover from the primary. As of September 15, 2010, there are 489,946 voters in Alaska. Only a third of the voters cast ballots in the primary. That is partly because almost half of the voters, 256,826, are non-partisan or undeclared in their registration. Republicans vastly outnumber Democrats 128,349 to74,645.

In a one-on-one race between a Democrat and the Republican, the Republican has a head start. Obviously, Murkowski can rely on a lot of Republican votes in her campaign and that will hurt Miller, but the real battle will be for the 256,826 non-partisan and undeclared voters.

The last two non-Presidential election years, 2002 and 2006, both ended up with general election turnouts slightly above 50%. This year’s primary election turnout was essentially the same as 2006, but up about 10% from 2002. It is a safe assumption that there will be a 50% turnout again. That increase is generally across the board from both parties and independents.

For Murkowski to win, she needs to hold onto her voters and convince the voters who did not vote in the primary to vote for her. That is a tough task as those voters are generally not as political or enthusiastic as the primary voters. Writing in a candidate’s name is sometimes a bit too much to ask.

Yet, it remains possible, but she cannot make mistakes. This is what she must do.

• Spend freely on media ads, especially television ads where her campaign can show people how to complete a write-in vote.
• Keep her message on the issues focused and limited. In that context, she must separate herself from her two opponents. Yet her main task is going to be voter education on how to vote write-in.
• Don’t shy away from gimmicky ideas because she has to make her candidacy stick in voters’ minds. Some of her supporters are suggesting the use of elastic bracelets that would say “Lisa M. Write in and Fill in.” Besides writing her name on the ballot, voters must also fill in the bubble next to the name.
• Develop a broad-based get-out-the-vote campaign to bring people to the polls or show them personally how to write in Murkowski’s name on campaign-style sample ballots.
• Most of all, she cannot make her support appear that it is slipping. Voters flee from a candidate in an unconventional campaign when support begins to drop.

If Murkowski does all of this right and more, then the race is a tossup between her, Miller and McAdams.

Murkowski can take comfort that a write-in campaign did elect at least one Senator in the past. Strom Thurmond ran in 1954 as a write-in after the Democrats denied him the party nomination in South Carolina. He won. However, Thurmond had his personality and a cause of a segregated south to rally supporters. No matter how hard Murkowski tries, she is not likely to succeed as Thurmond did.