Behind the Numbers

If you're like any of the pundits trolling Washington or one of your screens, you now have a well-rehearsed tale about how the Republicans won back control of the House last week. Perhaps you pepper your story with exit poll scripture, just as they do.

Republican House candidates won independents by 18 points, you declare. Most voters - 54 percent - said they disapprove of the way President Obama is doing his job. Fully 41 percent of all voters said they are conservative, the most ever to say so on an exit poll. You say that just 11 percent of voters were aged 18 to 29, the lowest ever.

What an authority!

Well, now a week later, you can forget those numbers. You have new ones to memorize.

The exit pollsters updated their numbers Tuesday, adjusting for the (near) final vote tallies across the country. This is standard procedure, but threatens a Hal-like numbers overload as they're coming, for the first time, a full week after an election.

In 2008, updates in several states happened 10 days after Election Day. The fine-tuning is done to make the exit polls more accurate as the local election offices finalize their vote counts.

Don't worry: you don't have to change your narrative about election 2010. If your favorite, go-to numbers shifted at all, they only moved by a point or two from what were on your flashcards last week. But you do have some work to do.

              2010 House    2008 president
National        GOP +16         Dem +8
California Sen. GOP +5          Dem +33
Florida Senate  GOP +10         Dem +7
Kentucky Sen.   GOP +16         GOP +20
Nevada Senate   GOP +4          Dem +13
Ohio Senate     GOP +39         Dem +8
Penn. Senate    GOP +10         Dem +17
W. VA. Senate   Dem +7          GOP +19
Wisc. Senate    GOP +14         Dem +17 

The G.O.P. wave has reached Wisconsin. A dramatic swing among independent voters helped derail Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold's bid for a fourth term against Republican businessman Ron Johnson. In the Governor's race, Republican Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker defeated Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

In the Senate race, the 27 percent of voters who identify as independents broke 55 to 43 percent in favor of Johnson. Six years ago, when Feingold faced Republican businessman Tim Michels, these voters broke 62 to 35 percent in the Democrat's favor.

Democrat Joe Manchin has beaten back a strong challenge from Republican John Raese in the West Virginia Senate race.

Manchin's coalition is drawn from Democrats, women, adult over 50 and voters earning less than $50,000 per year. Democrats accounted for 42 percent of statewide voters, while Republicans made up 35 percent of the electorate and independents comprised 24 percent.

Democrat Joe Manchin has beaten back a strong challenge from Republican John Raese in the West Virginia Senate race.

Manchin's coalition is drawn from Democrats, women, adult over 50 and voters earning less than $50,000 per year. Democrats accounted for 42 percent of statewide voters, while Republicans made up 35 percent of the electorate and independents comprised 24 percent.

In Kentucky's contest for U.S. Senate, Tea Party favorite Rand Paul captured the Senate seat, besting his opponent, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway.

Paul's winning coalition was drawn from majorities of Republicans, conservatives, men, middle and upper income earners, and middle aged and older voters. His strong showing is at least partly driven by high turnout among Republicans, who accounted for 40 percent of all voters, and seniors, who accounted for 20 percent of the electorate. Lower than expected turnout among younger voters and Democrats may have given Paul an edge as well.

Economic anxiety is particularly acute in Ohio, where Republican Rob Portman just defeated Democrat Lee Fisher in the U.S. Senate race.

In Ohio, 34 percent have seen a job loss in their household in recent years, higher than the figure nationally. And a full 88 percent are either "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the state of the nation's economy.

As expected, the economy is on the top of voters' minds today, as more than six in 10 say it is the most important issue facing the country, according to preliminary exit poll data. About two in 10 cite health care as the most pressing issue. So-called "economy" voters tilt toward the GOP, while "health care" voters lean toward Democratic congressional candidates in their district.

The economy topped also voters' minds in November 2008, when 63 percent cited it as the most important issue. But then, these voters backed Democratic congressional candidates 55 to 43 percent in 2008.

Afghanistan:

Foreign policy issues are not playing a large role this cycle, with the economy on the tops of voters' minds. However, about one in 10 say the war in Afghanistan is the most pressing this election, according to early exit poll data.

And public opinion on the subject appears to have turned more negative recently. Overall, more than half say they disapprove of the war in Afghanistan, while fewer, four in 10, approve.

In the latest Post-ABC poll on the issue, in July 2010, 43 percent said, all in all, the war in Afghanistan was worth fighting, while 53 percent said it was not worth fighting.

On another foreign policy note, about half say the Friday terrorism attempt was important to their vote choice. These voters lean toward the GOP.

It's the economy that's foremost on voters minds, as they are overwhelmingly worried with the state of the nation's economy. More than eight in 10 are either "very worried" or "somewhat worried," about the same as in 2008, when 86 percent said so. In a clear shift, today worried voters appear to favor the GOP; two years ago, these voters backed Democratic candidates by a 55 to 43 split.

In Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio, about nine in 10 are worried about the economy.

Nearly all voters call the state of the economy "not so good" or "poor," similar to 2008, when 93 percent described the economy that way. About four in 10 say the economy is "poor."

In the past two years, voters say their family's financial situation moving backwards: four in 10 say their personal financial situation is worse today than two years ago, far fewer say it is better, and about four in 10 say it is about the same. In 2008, 24 percent said their family's financial situation was better than it was four years prior, 42 said it was worse, and 34 percent said it was about the same.

In Ohio, four times as many say their financial situation is moving in the wrong direction than getting better.

Nationally, fewer than four in 10 say the country is headed on the wrong track, while about six in 10 see the nation heading in the right direction. In the states of Nevada and Kentucky, more than twice as many see things in the nation as headed on the wrong track than headed in the right direction.

And confidence in the stimulus spending is quite low:just three in 10 say it has helped the economy. About the same number, three in 10, it has hurt the economy, while the remainder say say it has made no difference.

In Florida and Ohio, two states hit hard by the recession, more than seven in 10 say in the past few years the country's economy has been in a serious long-term decline, while about one in four say it is part of a normal downturn.

Health care:

Seven months after the Obama administration and Congress passed overarching health care reforms, two in 10 voters call the issue tops on their minds and about half say they want to overturn the overhaul, according to preliminary exit polls.

Overall, about half want the next Congress to repeal the health care, while fewer than two in 10 say Congress should leave it is as and three in 10 say it should be expanded.

An early October Washington Post-ABC News poll showed an electorate about evenly split on the health-care overhaul: 46 percent of voters for it, 50 percent against. Moreover, more than three-quarters of those who oppose the changes say they support an effort to cancel the health-care reform measures. In the poll, 40 percent of Americans oppose the bill and support an effort to repeal it, either by a new vote in Congress or through the courts.

In Kentucky and Ohio, half say the new health care law will make them worse off, while about half as many say it will make them and their family better off and three in 10 percent say it won't make a difference.

Source: Exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research for the National Election Pool, The Washington Post and other media organizations. The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News and the Associated Press.

Poll workers across the country will be counting millions more ballots throughout the night, but exit polls shed light on the new direction voters want the 112th Congress to take.

Overall, voters came down firmly against expanded government: 56 percent told exit pollsters that the government is doing too may things better left to business and individuals;38 percent say the government should do more to solve problems.

Barack Obama is not on the ballot today, but he's affecting election outcomes across the country and appears to be hurting Democrats nationally,according to preliminary exit poll data.

Thirty-seven percent say their vote was against President Obama, 24 percent say it was in favor of Obama, and 37 percent say the 44th president was not a factor in their vote.