@jedlewison Twitter
@jedlewison Twitter
The Jed Report is currently on extended hiatus. You can find my current posts at Daily Kos TV and at Daily Kos. Now that DKTV is up and running, I hope to resume posting here in 2010. — Jed
There’s no truth to the rumor that Christine O’Donnell is changing her name to U.I.Am. And there’s no truth to the rumor that she is actually a witch. (Remember, she merely “dabbled in witchcraft” — she didn’t “become a witch.” There’s a big and important difference.)
Alas, there is truth to the rumor that O’Donnell’s days as a comedy prop are numbered, because with the election less than one month away, she’s a guaranteed loser. The latest evidence: Democratic nominee Chris Coons has a massive 19-point lead over O’Donnell among likely voters according to a new survey by the University of Delaware. Moreover:
Coons’ lead widens to 24 points when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account for the poll’s final estimate, with Coons holding a 61% to 37% advantage. The poll also finds weaker emotional support for O’Donnell among her supporters than Coons has among his. The poll is the first released since long- time Republican incumbent Congressman Mike Castle announced he would not seek a write-in candidacy.
If O’Donnell is to pull this race out, she’s going to need to deploy some of that black magic she learned back when she was dabbling in witchcraft. And she’s going to need to do it stat!
Help Chris Coons keep witchcraft out of the U.S. Senate — contribute $5 or $10 today!
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/2-3. Likely voters. MoE 2.7%
Neil Abercrombie (D) 49
Duke Aiona (R) 47
Undecided (R) 4
Former Democratic U.S. Representative Neil Abercrombie has a slim lead over Republican Duke Aiona in Hawaii’s gubernatorial contest, giving Democrats a chance at picking up a governorship from the Republican Party. According to a poll conducted for us by Public Policy Polling, Abercrombie registers at 49% of the vote with Aiona at 47%.
As with most midterm contests, this race is going to come down to turnout. If turnout were like it was in 2008, the race wouldn’t be close — Abercrombie would be ahead by double-digits, 56-40. It’s worth pointing out that 2008 was an especially good year for Democrats in Hawaii thanks to voters turning out for President Obama who — despite what Fox might want you to believe — was born in the state. So it would be unrealistic to expect a full and complete return to those sorts of numbers. Nonetheless, even a modest narrowing of intensity between Democrats and Republicans would probably be enough to ensure Abercrombie wins the race.
On the topic of the intensity gap, Nate Silver takes a look at how to analyze it over at FiveThirtyEight’s new home on nytimes.com. Nate’s basic assessment: there is a gap, but it’s not exactly a function of depressed Democrats. Rather, it’s a function of unusually excited Republicans. Nate says polling numbers show Democrats are actually more likely than usual to vote. It’s just that Republicans are far more likely to vote than usual. That doesn’t remove the problem of the intensity gap — but it suggests that the challenge Democrats face is more about activating Democratic-leaning voters that typically don’t have strong turnout numbers in midterm elections, typically young people and minorities. (Yet another reason why Walt Minnick’s anti-immigration attack ad was both offensive and foolish.)
In addition to polling the gubernatorial contest, we also polled the congressional races in Hawaii. Yesterday, we released results for the congressional race in Hawaii’s first CD, showing Democrat Colleen Hanabusa had edged ahead of incumbent Republican Charles Djou. We also polled the second district where Democrat Mazie Hirona has a substantial 55-32 lead over Republican John Willoughby. Abercrombie leads by 4 in the second district while he trails in the first — despite having represented it in Congress.
As DemFromCT noted yesterday, the latest WaPo/ABC poll reflects what polls throughout the country are showing: as election day approaches, Democrats are gaining ground and Republicans are losing it. The question is: why?
Two interesting numbers from the poll might tell us some of the story.
First, the GOP’s Pledge to America was a complete dud. 66 percent said they had never heard of it, and of those who had, more people said it would make them less likely to vote for the GOP (29 percent) than said it would make them more likely (23%). Compare that to the Contract With America which had similar awareness numbers but was a small net positive for Republicans (24 percent more likely, 21 percent less likely).
Second, and probably more importantly, President Obama’s numbers have improved since he started campaigning after Labor Day. That they’ve improved isn’t exactly a surprise, but the extent of the improvement is a bit surprising. One month ago, his net approval rating was minus 6 — 46 approve, 52 disapprove. Now it’s plus 3 — 50 approve, 47 disapprove. That’s a nine-point swing in just one month. Obviously, there’s no single reason why the race is getting closer, but when one out of ten voters improve their rating of President Obama, that’s a really big shift, and it’s no doubt part of the explanation.
Mr. Cantor believes the American-Jewish community is overwhelmingly Democratic because Jews “are prone to want to help the underdog.”
As one of those American Jews, I’d like to thank Mr. Cantor for pointing out why so many of us vote Democratic.
Two thousand reasons why we can — and must — win Kentucky:
Help Jack Conway get out the message: Contributing $5 or $10 today will go a long way to victory in November!
In Kentucky, if you’re an unmarried woman pregnant with your first child and you make less than $20,000 per year, the state’s Medicaid service will cover the cost of your childbirth and help you pay for health care during your child’s first year.
Considering the fact that the average cost of maternity and infant care for a childbirth without complications is $15,000 (four times as much with complications), the program is literally a lifesaver — but Rand Paul thinks it’s offensive.
Paul, who is running against Democrat Jack Conway in one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races, said Medicaid covers approximately half of the births in Kentucky.
“Half of the people in Kentucky are not poor,” he said. “We’ve made it too easy. And people are going to say, ‘Oh, that’s harsh, you can’t say that.’ Well, let’s take care of those who are truly in need, which would be a small percentage of the public. Let’s take care of them until they can take care of themselves.
“Let’s not have intergenerational welfare, and that’s what’s been going on and that’s a large part of this problem.”
Intergenerational welfare? Are you kidding me, Rand? What in the hell does that even mean? Don’t you think that newborn children deserve a fair shot at a healthy life? Do you really think a woman earning $19,999 ought to be forced to bear the costs of pregnancy without any help? And do you think she’d be able to do it without cutting corners? Do you really want to live in that kind of society?
Rand Paul’s plan to cut off support for pregnant women isn’t just off the wall. It’s cruel.
Rand Paul’s opponent, Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, is running strong. Help him get out the message with a $5 or $10 contribution today.
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/2-3. Likely voters. MoE 3.9%
Colleen Hanabusa (D) 48
Charles Djou (R) 47
Undecided (R) 5
Despite receiving just 40 percent of the vote, Republican incumbent Charles Djou won a special election in HI-01 earlier this when Democrats divided their votes between Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case. In November’s general election, Djou doesn’t have the same good fortune and faces just one of his former special election rivals, Democrat Colleen Hanabusa. Now that the Democratic field is unitied, Hanabusa is carrying a narrow one point lead, giving Democrats a good opportunity to pick up a seat from the GOP.
The only thing making this race close is the enthusiasm gap; if voters turned out at 2008 levels, Hanabusa would have a 54-40 lead. Instead, we’re looking at a dead heat. Still, the national trend lines for Democrats are looking good and if Democrats continue to dial in to the election as November approaches, Hanabusa will be in a strong position to win. She’s had good success fundraising, keeping pace with Djou in the last fundraising period, and now that she’s edged ahead in the polls, HI-01 is looking like a good prospect for Democrats to pick up a seat.
The latest proof that Democrats aren’t necessarily doomed to lose this November’s elections: according to the latest Rasmussen poll, with more than one in eight voters still undecided, Republicans have a minuscule three-point lead. The poll, showing the GOP at 45% and Dems at 42%, is the closest Rasmussen poll since the summer of 2009. It comes on the heels of a Newsweek poll showing Dems leading by five.
In fact, since the beginning of September — when Democrats started to campaign — the contours of the national race have shifted markedly. Take a look for yourself at the dramatic narrowing of the gap over just a few weeks time:
These trends suggest that the GOP may have peaked too early. Taking a victory dance in August may have felt good for them, but it also forced voters to consider the fact that this November they will face a choice between Democrats and Republicans, and a vote for a Republican means turning back to the way things were under Bush — or worse. I’m not saying Democrats should declare victory or anything like that, but if there was one thing the Republicans could do to change this election, I’m sure it would be to eliminate the months of September and October.
Eric Cantor has a hilarious new pitch for the Republican Party: you can trust us because we know that the last time we ran the show, we fucked up.
We screwed up when we were in the majority. We fell in love with power. We spent way too much money—especially on earmarks. There was too much corruption when we ran this place. We were guilty.
Okay, so even though Republicans controlled Congress for over a decade — including during the Bush presidency — we’re supposed to trust them because they now realize that they “screwed up” the last time around? The only scant piece of evidence Cantor offers for his claim is that he hopes to “take a cue” from Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and “cut programs” to balance the budget. Only one problem: McDonnell relied on Federal aid to balance his state’s books.
According to a Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis report released this week, last year’s Recovery Act provided $2.5 billion in stimulus relief to ‘maintain crucial services for [Virginia] citizens’ and ‘help close the state’s budget shortfall in 2010-2012.’ Virginia legislators relied on $1.3 billion in enhanced Medicaid funding, $1 billion in funding for K-12 and higher education, $39 million for public safety, and $200 million in general support to reduce ‘what would otherwise have been a $5.4 billion budget hole.’”
So Cantor’s argument boils down to: we screwed up, but trust us, we won’t screw up again, and offers as proof a transparently bogus claim about Bob McDonnell’s tenure in office?
With a campaign as hollow as this, it’s no wonder that Democrats are surging: the GOP alternative is really no alternative at all.
An amusing snippet from Sharron Angle’s desperate attempt to get Tea Party of Nevada candidate Scott Ashjian to withdraw from Nevada’s U.S. Senate race:
“There may be five or six of us,” she says, listing the Tea Party candidates. “Possibly Marco Rubio is real, but that’s a stretch for me.”
So who was it that she listed as being real? Well:
“Joe Miller (Alaska), Ken Buck (Colorado), Christine O’Donnell (Delaware).”
And when Ashjian said O’Donnell was going to lose, what did Angle say?
“Well I think she’s, real.”
So Sharron Angle is worried that Marco Rubio might be too liberal, presumably because he’s insufficiently committed to getting Big Government Off Her Back. But she’s all excited to work with Joe Miller, Ken Buck, and Christine O’Donnell, each of whom supports an absolute ban on abortion in all cases of rape and incest — and who support policies that would ban common forms of the birth control pill.
That’s real, all right. Real nutty.
PPP for Daily Kos (10/2-3, 605 LVs, MoE +/- 4.0%):
Louisiana 2nd district:
Cedric Richmond (D): 49%
Joseph Cao (R, Inc.): 38%
LA-02 is a Democratic stronghold, favoring Charlie Melancon over David Vitter by a 65%-28% margin. Indeed, if it weren’t for the fact that he was running against a crook in 2008, Cao never would have gotten elected in the first place. He’s voted to the left of any other Republican in the House — even supporting health care reform — and voters in the district actually have a favorable opinion of him by a 50%-29% margin. That’s identical to the 50%-28% positive rating for Richmond, but Cao’s support for the GOP leadership and by extension its agenda appears to be too high a hurdle for him to overcome, especially with ads like this from President Obama endorsing his Democratic opponent Cedric Richmond:
PPP’s Tom Jensen tells us that the poll shows it would take a political earthquake for Cao to win. Not only does he trail Richmond by double digits, far more undecided voters are Democrats (61%) than Republicans (12%). So Cao not only has to erase a gap with those who have already decided, but needs to win undecided voters — most of whom are Democrats.
From News Corporation’s paper of record comes this headline:
Obama Likely to Scale Back Legislative Plans
Another Lame Obama Failure, right? Sure, except for one thing: the Wall Street Journal’s headline writers apparently don’t read their own articles:
President Barack Obama, facing at best narrower Democratic majorities in Congress next year, is likely to break up his remaining legislative priorities into smaller bites in hope of securing at least some piecemeal proposals on energy, climate change, immigration and terrorism policy, White House officials say…
…They are talking about a new, more incremental approach, championed by former Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, to fulfilling campaign promises on energy, immigration and on closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay. The new White House chief of staff, Pete Rouse, is far more steeped than Mr. Emanuel in the culture of the Senate, where comprehensive approaches to some of these issues have fared poorly. White House officials hope Mr. Rouse’s expertise will help navigate smaller measures through the chamber.
“We weren’t able to do a lot of those other things even with this Congress. That obviously calls for a new approach,” one White House official said.
Trying to get things done in a piecemeal fashion doesn’t mean you’re giving up or scaling back, especially when the things you’re trying to get done are things that Congress has already blocked. In fact, it shows the exact opposite: despite a lock of progress on some key agenda items, Obama isn’t going to stop looking for ways to push the ball down the field. You don’t need to get a touchdown on every pass to win the game.
@DKTV Twitter
