Grace Potter and the Nocturnals — Paris (Ohh La La).

What’s on your mind?

Pouting Baby is worried he might be sent to fight in Afghanistan when he's older. (photo courtesy of Jim White)

Pouting Baby is talking to us again.  – JW

Today is a birthday.  I usually like birthdays a lot, because everybody at the party is happy.  But today’s birthday is not a happy one.  I heard on television that nine years ago today, the fighting started in Afghanistan.   Nine years seems like a really long time and it sounds like this fighting is really bad.  A lot of people are dying over there.

When Mr. O moved into the White House, he said he wanted more fighting in Afghanistan.  I don’t understand why anyone wants more fighting.  Now Mr. O is even killing people next door in Pakistan a lot faster, too.  It sounds like that is making the people there really mad.  Even though Mr. O is killing people in Pakistan, he is asking Pakistan to help us, too.  Why does he think that will work?

When Georgie Bush started the fighting in Afghanistan, he said this was part of a fight that may never end.  That has me worried a lot.  When I get old enough, will someone who lives at the White House send me to Afghanistan or someplace like that to fight?  I don’t want to fight.

Here’s a movie with some people who were in the fight in Afghanistan.  I don’t think they want anyone else to have to fight there:

According to Gallup, the number of unemployed Americans has ticked up noticeably from 9.4% in mid-September to 10.1%. Given that “Jobs and the Economy” is by far the dominant issue for voters right now, this is not good news for the incumbent party. . . and that would be the Democrats.

Historical analysis has shown the state of the economy and income growth right before an election has a substantial effect on which party wins, especially noteworthy in an election where the economy is the top concern of the electorate:

“In presidential elections,” Princeton political scientist Larry Bartels says, “a 1 percent boost in election-year income growth has typically increased the incumbent party’s vote share by about 2 percent. So an incumbent party that won 51 percent of the vote in an average economic year like 2004 would be expected to win only 46 percent in a recession year like 2008.” Which is, as you may remember, pretty much exactly what happened.

A multi-year economic slump that is not only not improving but might actually, by some measures, be getting worse as voters prepare to head to the polls can only hurt Democrats seeking re-election. Democrats have been in complete control of Washington, and they will likely be viewed as having completely failed at improving the job situation.