The polls of the past three weeks

The 2010 Final Surveys League Table

Could Dave be tempted to go for an election?

The above Tweet from the Sun certainly seemed to have got people going overnight overnight but how feasible is the idea of the blues going it alone? Surely the Sun’s political team have got this one wrong?

Although a 43% share sounds good the poll numbers represents an increase in the CON share of 6% and an increase in the LAB share if 4.3%. That’s a swing to the Tories from Labour of 0.85% which would lead to just three seats changing hands between the two parties.

The big hope for Cameron would be to take Lib Dem seats to get him above the magic 326 line. Certainly on these numbers he would do that but how would that actually work out in practice? Hard to say in the context of what’s gone on since May.

Reneging on the coalition would make it nigh on impossible for the Tories to do another deal with the yellows should a future election not produce the desired outcome.

In any case would the monarch accede to a new election if the reason was that the coalition partners had split. Surely the next step would be to call on the Labour leader to see if he/she could form a government.

The big question, though, is would Dave want to do this? Doesn’t the current arrangement keep both keep the Tim Montgomeries and Graham Bradys in check and provide cover for the cuts programmes?

You get the distinct impression that Dave is happier with the coalition than if the blues had got an overall majority.

One thing’s for sure - there would need to be more polling evidence than YouGov which came in eight position in this year’s polling accuracy table.

Mike Smithson

Ed Miliband’s Campaign in Good Socialist Health

As the Labour leadership rumbles on the contest appears to have taken a settled shape. The next phase is the big union nominations however it’s possible to make a judgement on how two thirds of Labour’s Electoral College will now vote.

As most PB readers know the college is split into thirds between Labour Members of Parliament, Labour Party members and those in affiliated societies who pay a political levy. The latter include trade unions as well as socialist societies such as the Co-operative Party and the Socialist Health Association.

I have previously argued that Ed Miliband is ideally positioned to win the contest by gaining second and third preferences from his rivals. Having seen the breakdown of one affiliate’s voting, I am now even firmer of this view.

The Socialist Health Association has published the preferences and transfers of those taking part in their nominations. Their members may be a touch to the left of the typical Labour Party membership and represent a relatively small sample, but they demonstrate the huge ability of Ed Miliband in hoovering up preferences. This could well happen up and down the country in trade unions and among members:

The first to be eliminated was Ed Balls, perhaps surprisingly followed by Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham, Diane Abbott was eliminated next and then David Miliband. Ed Miliband was eventually the comfortable victor and note how his lead widens with each round of transfers.

Among the MPs we know that David Miliband received the nomination of 81 MPs, Ed Miliband 63, Ed Balls 33, Andy Burnham 33 and Diane Abbott 33. I will expect Diane Abbott’s tally to reduce dramatically in the final reckoning – perhaps to as few as 10. I predict the chief beneficiaries will be David and Ed Miliband although Ed Balls should pick up some from Andy Burnham. I believe David Miliband needs to be some way further ahead of this section of the college to counter his weakness in gathering transfers.

The Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) are also making their nominations known and an even more striking two-horse race emerges. According to www.labourlist.org David Miliband has the nominations of 73 CLPs; Ed Miliband has 57 with Diane Abbott on 13, Andy Burnham on 10 and Ed Balls trailing badly behind on just 6 CLPs.

While the CLP nominations won’t formally count for anything, the growing realisation that this is a two-horse race and will undoubtedly assist Ed Miliband’s chances of receiving the support of some of the big unions. My information suggests that David Miliband has next to no chance of picking up the support in the national political committees of Unite, Unison, GMB or the CWU unions. The desire of many union leaders to ‘pick a winner’ will surely mean that Ed Miliband’s strong showing among MPs and CLPs will put him ahead of Ed Balls and Andy Burnham – despite their huge efforts to cultivate Unite and Unison respectively.

David Miliband is running the most professional campaign by far and I hear whispers he may receive a valued endorsement any day soon. However unless he can considerably pull away from his brother, he will surely be reeled in once transfers kick in on all sections of the college - as the Socialist Health Associate figures so clearly demonstrate.

Despite not knowing for certain how the big unions will fall, I believe Ed Miliband should be evens at most to be the next Labour leader. He remains the clear value bet.

HenryG Manson

The Mandy serialisation - Day 3

On a day when the big political news could have been the parliamentary battles and votes on the budget VAT increases it’s the Mandy book serialisation in the Times that’s likely, once again, to provide the big talking point.

Today in another extract devoid, it apears, of much detail, the focus is on the the Brown-Blair relationship and the tensions between the them.

This is how the Guardian reports it: “The relationship between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown became so hostile that Blair described his chancellor as “mad, bad, dangerous and beyond redemption” and likened Brown’s behaviour to that of a “mafioso” in his dealings with him, Lord Mandelson has revealed.

The breakdown in the two men’s relationship is detailed in the third instalment of Mandelson’s memoirs, The Third Man, in which he describes how he and other No 10 aides drew up plans – codenamed Operation Teddy Bear – to split the Treasury into two in an attempt to weaken Brown’s challenge to Blair after the prime minister agreed in 2003 not to fight the next general election, only to renege on his promise.

But plans to remove Brown from the Treasury and put him in the Foreign Office were twice considered and rejected by Blair because he feared Brown would resign and become an even greater threat….”

Unless the Times is holding something back there aren’t any new insights or even juicy details on what was the biggest political story for more than a decade. Maybe Mandy still feels constrained by loyalty to the two Prime Ministers that he served - but the account thus far adds almost nothing.

Will it have any political impact? I think it might just help David Miliband because it’s a reminder of the environment in which he was operating when people were urging him to take on Brown.

His cerebral style, assuming that he does get it, will surely be very different.

Apart from that it is all history - Mr. Blair and Mr. Brown have moved on.

Mike Smithson