Looks like the $783,835 in campaign cash given by the oil and gas industry to Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) was money well spent:

Also on Monday, Vitter sent yet another letter to the Obama administration requesting a “quick end” to the “six-month ban on drilling in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.” The moratorium was issued to allow federal authorities to investigate the problems at deepwater drilling platforms and to propose new regulations...

As I stated, there is no one more environmentally devastated by this oil disaster than the people of the Gulf Coast. It’s our coast, our marshes, and our way of life that is being impacted. However, despite the ongoing oil spill disaster, the great majority of Gulf Coast citizens feel strongly that the administration’s deepwater moratorium is a major mistake. Simply put, it will cost us more jobs and economic devastation than the oil spill itself.

This November, Vitter will face Rep. Charlie Melancon, who has also urged President Obama to end the moratorium as soon as possible, though Melancon has recognized the need for one. Melancon has also called for repealing the liability cap for oil companies like BP, while Vitter has proposed legislation that could limit it to just $150 million.

With nothing else to hang their political hats on, the House GOP is still on their repeal kick [sub req].

In continuing their campaign against the new health care law, 28 Republican Representatives, including top GOP House leadership, Tuesday signed on to an amicus brief filed in support of Virginia’s constitutional challenge to the law....

Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio), Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.), House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (Ind.) and Conference Vice Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.) all signed on to the brief contending that the law’s individual mandate to buy health insurance is unconstitutional.

About that law suit.... Ian Millihiser at Think Progress evaluates it, and to say that it might be somewhat wanting is a bit of an understatement.

Normally, lawyers presenting arguments to a court focus on facts, legal sources, and legal precedent. Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli prefers a different tactic. In an often-incoherent brief attacking the Affordable Care Act, Cuccinelli argues that a 236 year-old colonial boycott of British products somehow renders the new health care law unconstitutional:

[A]ll of the taxes except those on tea were repealed leading to the Boston Tea Party, the Intolerable Acts, and the First Continental Congress. Throughout the period from the Stamp Act forward, Americans responded with non-importation and non-consumption agreements. …  In light of this experience, the founding generation would have regarded as preposterous any suggestion that Great Britain could have solved its colonial problems by commanding Americans to purchase tea under the generally conceded power of parliament to regulate commerce.

This argument is hardly a model of clarity, but Cuccinelli appears to be arguing that, because American colonists protested British taxes by boycotting British products, it somehow follows that the Founders would not allow Congress to pass a law which would prevent modern-day Americans from boycotting health insurance. Cuccinelli, however, needs a history lesson. The Founders did not boycott British products because believed in boycotts for their own sake; they did so because they were protesting “taxation without representation.

Commerce clause, taxation without representation, whatever. The colonists were pissed. About tea, or something. The teabaggers are pissed. Not about tea, but they want to be like the colonists, so the Boston Tea Party must be somehow applicable to the new health insurance law. Hell, it works for Boehner and Cantor, et al.

I don't what's scarier: that Cuccinelli is the chief legal officer for Virginia or that the Republican House leadership are actually in a position to make federal law.

Jim Nickles, Executive Director for AFSCME Council 38 in Arkansas, just had a brief conference call with bloggers for an update on how run-off day is going. Despite Lincoln's ongoing vilification of the labor effort against her as "out of state" special interests, Nickels talked about just how home-grown the effort has been. Arkansas laborers have made as many as 30,000 phone calls, have dropped at least 60,000 pieces of lit--door-to-door and mail.

Local people have staffed the phonebanks for Halter, have gone door-to-door. Nickels says it's the first time for most of these Arkansans to participate in this kind of effort, and it's been a learning experience for them--one that they'd take into the general election for Halter, if he triumphs in today's run-off.

But the message for right now is GOTV. They're going to be making calls up until 7:28 tonight, because anyone still in line at 7:30 will get to vote. Of real concern is Garland County, where there are long lines of folks waiting in the Arkansas heat to vote. Miller County is another problem county, one that went strong for Halter in the primary, and has just half the polling places open as for the primary. So motivating the folks in those counties to stay committed to voting for Halter, even if it means standing in line, is one of the keys today.

If you have any time available this afternoon, and can lend a hand in GOTV, please do so.

Press-Register:

The Deepwater Horizon is not the only well leaking oil into the Gulf of Mexico for the last month.

A nearby drilling rig, the Ocean Saratoga, has been leaking since at least April 30, according to a federal document.

While the leak is decidedly smaller than the Deepwater Horizon spill, a 10-mile-long slick emanating from the Ocean Saratoga is visible from space in multiple images gathered by Skytruth.org, which monitors environmental problems using satellites.

Federal officials did not immediately respond when asked about the size of the leak, how long it had been flowing, or whether it was possible to plug it.

Skytruth first reported the leak on its website on May 15. Federal officials mentioned it in the May 1 trajectory map for the Deepwater Horizon spill, stating that oil from the Ocean Saratoga spill might also be washing ashore in Louisiana.

SkyTruth, the organization that uses satellite imagery to monitor spills in the Gulf, argues that this new leak demonstrates the urgent need to have an ongoing program to monitor drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico using satellite imagery made available to the public.

Problems cropping up in Garland County:

The mess that Garland County Election Commission made has come to full flower. A voting rights activist reports long lines and parking problems at the two — count 'em, two — polling places that the Commission decided to open for runoff voting. It closed 40 other polls to save money despite the fact that every voter in the county, where some 12,000 voted in the first primary, has three statewide races to consider.

There's one poll in Hot Springs, at the election commission, and one in Hot Springs Village (beyond the community's access gates). If it's a close election and Bill Halter loses, somebody is going to howl, givenBlanche Lincoln's poor showing in Garland in the first primary. She got only about 40 percent of the vote.

Those in line by 7:30 still may be able to vote. One question, however, may be what constitutes a line. Confident that Commission Chairman Charles Tapp and Co. will have a good answer?

Doesn't help that it's hot. Doesn't help that cops needed because of traffic difficulties have been diverted by amanhunt for a prisoner who escaped en route to a Hot Springs court appearance today.

And election officials couldn't have anticipated this, could they?

The polls are open for hours still, so get over to this diary and learn how you can help with last-minute GOTV efforts.

That's the big question today among the punditocracy. A Lincoln loss today would mean three incumbent Senators--Bennett and Specter being the other two--to lose. That hasn't happened since 1980. But it's not just what happens in November, it's what happens in government after November that really matters.

In evaluating this, Ezra posts about incumbency:

Specter managed to effectively lose -- or in the case of the Republican primary, seem certain to lose -- both the Democratic and the Republican primaries because he seemed more loyal to himself than he was to either party. Lincoln is a conservative Democrat facing likely defeat at the hands of a somewhat more populist, and at least implicitly more party-loyal, challenger.

And in case you wanted to say that the American people clearly support populist insurgencies this year, consider that the tea parties are plummeting in popularity. Whatever populist impulse they represented has managed to alienate a majority of the population.

Part of the narrative that's emerged is that these primaries show an anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, year. That's right, but it's mixed, incoherently, with pro-party -- which is to say, pro-Washington establishment -- results. The different bases are eliminating politicians who've been insufficiently dedicated to holding their party's line. The result will be much more significant than merely the election of three new senators. Rather, surviving senators will upgrade the threat an unhappy base poses to their reelection and trim their independence accordingly. The moderates and compromisers who are left will stop acting like moderates and compromisers. This election looks, if nothing else, like it's going to be a big step forward in bringing strong party discipline to the Senate.

I don't think Ezra's entirely right. In the first instance, it's probably not the teabaggers' populism that's making them less popular--it's the crazy; the racism, birtherism, and the out-an-out hate that tends to predominate. The teabaggers don't have a monopoly on populism--anger at insurance company CEOs, at Wall Street, and at Big Oil are damned near universal. In Lincoln's case, her corporatism is a key factor working against her. It's her corporatism that in large part has led her to betray her Democratic roots--it's supposed to be the party of the common good, and Lincoln has abandoned that ethos time and time again.

In that vein, the Artur Davis loss is instructive, probably more so than either Bennett or Specter. Bennett's loss came at state convention, where a relative few extremely motivated activists could sway the outcome. He'd probably have survived an actual primary with Utah Republicans. In the case of Specter, his party switch was just too cynical and too selfish for Pennsylvania Dems to swallow. Davis, however, like Lincoln worked too hard to actually distance himself from key Democratic constituencies. He--like Lincoln--betrayed his actual base.

And, again, this is where I think Ezra is off. First, can anyone really argue that there isn't strong party discipline among the Republicans? Could they really get more unified in obstruction?

On the Dem side, he's equating pro-party with pro-Washington establishment. Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter are the Washington establishment--look at all the primary support they've received, from Obama to Bill Clinton. It's not party loyalty to the Dem establishment in Washington--and to Harry Reid's agenda--that the base is looking for. It's loyalty to us--the huge big tent of Democrats. Women who are pissed at hell that Stupak ultimately won in getting restrictive abortion language into health insurance reform; unions who have been screwed again, watching EFCA pushed aside; Latinos whose demands for comprehensive immigration reform keep getting backburnered; African Americans who have to hear Republican Senate candidates question the Civil Rights Act; environmentalists who got slapped down for opposing a Dem president's misguided expansion of off-shore drilling; millions of unemployed who are losing hope that there will ever be a job for them along with losing their benefits.

We don't want stricter adherence to the agenda of the pro-party establishment in Washington. We want our representatives to fight harder for us. This is our chance to fight for that--that's what primaries are for. If nothing else comes out of this election, the restoration of the primary as a good, proper, and normal tool for democracy would be a win.  

• Bill Halter for US Senate has a diary up asking for your help in getting out the vote. So give it a rec and then limber up your knocking or dialing fingers.
• Mary Rickles of Netroots Nation has a timely reminder:

  On Tuesday, Californians have an opportunity to strike a blow against the entrenched system of money-dominated politics that puts lobbyists' interests above the public interest by voting yes on Proposition 15, the California Fair Elections Act.

  Prop 15 will change the way we finance election campaigns, starting with a voluntary pilot project to provide limited public financing for Secretary of State candidates in 2014 and 2018. The Secretary of State referees our elections, so it's especially important that s/he has the best ideas and experience, not the most money.

  Given the state of our state, this is a critical campaign. But this is not just important to Californians. People across the country are watching too, knowing that Prop 15 could open the door for similar reforms across the country. Hundreds of orgs and individuals (including Rep. Alan Grayson and Lawrence Lessig) support it. You should, too.

  Get out and vote ... in California and anywhere else there's an election today.

• It could happen to anyone:

  Poll worker Keta Hodgson says a scanning machine rejected Schwarzenegger's first ballot Tuesday because he selected two Senate candidates, instead of one.

  Hodgson says the Republican governor was given the choice of filling out a new ballot or not having his Senate choice count. He cast a fresh ballot.

• Sue Lowden thinks that GOTV efforts will save her bacon (wanted to avoid any chicken reference).
• Pop the popcorn and pull up a chair:

  BP CEO Tony Hayward, vilified for his handling of the Gulf oil spill, will make his first appearance on Capitol Hill next week in a hearing investigating BP’s role in the causes and the aftermath of the oil rig disaster.

  Hayward will testify in front of Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) investigative House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on June 17, in a hearing titled “The Role of BP in the Deepwater Horizon Explosion and Oil Spill.”

• A heartbreaking slideshow, courtesy of BP.
• The double standards never stop ... from Steve Benen at The Washington Monthly:

  In yet another example of the conservative media creating a double standard for President Obama, right wing media outlets attacked him for giving "absolutely no commemoration" of the D-Day anniversary [yesterday].

  In fact, Obama's D-Day commemorations mirror the Bush administration's; both commemorated D-Day on significant anniversaries but not annually.

  Steve has a running tally of "One standard for Obama; one standard for everyone else."

• A couple of tea party patriots:

  Two men face federal charges for threatening Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) during the healthcare reform debate.

  Two men face federal charges for threatening Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) after he voted for healthcare reform.

  The U.S. Attorney's office for the Eastern District of Michigan on Monday charged Russell Hesch, 73, and his son David Hesch, 50, with conspiring to threaten, assault, kidnap or murder a U.S. official.

• It's never to early to start your holiday shopping:

  Don't know what gift to get for the paramilitary-enthusiast in your life? Look no further then the Blackwater proshop. That's right, Blackwater, also known as Xe, also known as the private military contracting outfit at the center of a number of controversies in Iraq and Afghanistan, is getting into the retail game.

  According to Wired, the company is opening up storefronts in Fayetteville, North Carolina and Salem, Connecticut, but if you can't make it out there, you can always visit their online store.

  Blackwater coffee mugs, beer-opener key chains, beach towels and shot glasses -- you want 'em, they've got 'em.

  For the teenage girl in your life, they've got some spiffy pink baseball caps with the company logo printed in on it.

• This is very cool:

  Nelson Mandela gave the World Cup the ultimate pre-tournament boost Tuesday as his family declared the 91-year-old anti-apartheid icon would be among the crowds when the event kicks off.

• Cassini finds Life on Saturn's moon Titan? Not so fast. And the Bad Astronomer weighs in as well on what might, possibly, someday turn into a big deal, but isn't there yet. -- DS

Earlier today, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco confirmed what researchers have been saying for weeks: plumes of oil have been spreading throughout the Gulf of Mexico.

Water samples collected by the R/V Weatherbird II vessel have confirmed biodegraded crude oil in two undersea layers as far as 40 nautical miles northeast of BP’s seabed leak, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said at a press briefing. The vessel’s samples show oil as deep as 3,300 feet in the water, Lubchenco said.

"The bottom line is that yes, there is oil in the water column, it’s at very low concentrations, and we will continue to release those data as soon as they are available," Lubchenco said at a press conference held jointly with Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen. "That doesn’t mean that it does not have significant impact."

The New York Times notes that NOAA's findings follow in the path of research conducted by independent scientists:

The announcement of test results appeared to confirm information first presented three weeks ago by two other groups of researchers, from the University of Georgia and the University of Southern Mississippi, regarding huge plumes of dispersed oil droplets. Those scientists have not yet completed their analysis of the water samples they collected, but one of them, Samantha Joye of the University of Georgia, held a news conference Tuesday where she presented detailed instrument readings. Those readings confirm that a plume, probably consisting of hydrocarbons from the leak, stretches through the deep ocean for at least 15 miles west of the gushing oil well, Dr. Joye said.

Bacteria appear to be consuming the oil-related compounds at a furious pace, Dr. Joye said. That is depleting the water of oxygen, she said, though not yet to a level that would kill sea creatures.

Despite the findings of independent researchers and today's formal acknowledgment from the government, BP has for weeks maintained that there were no undersea plumes.

Update (11:54AM) -- Fishgrease comments:

"very low concentrations"
She just couldn't help adding that BP-massage. That's not data, Dr. Lubchenco. That's a BP-favorable description.

What a shock:

Voters express only modest concern and hardly any surprise about the secret job offers made by the Obama White House to Democratic politicians in Colorado and Pennsylvania in hopes of getting them to drop their primary challenges of incumbent senators...

Less than one in five see the job offers as out of the ordinary.

Obviously these results aren't surprising since anyone with more than two brain cells to rub together knows that national parties don't want their incumbents to go through bruising primaries.

Once again we had the media dutifully taking notes on a Republican-created non-story.

Here's a question that is bothering me: why are BP and the Federal government telling two different stories about the importance of closing the vents on the containment cap over BP's leaking well?

It's certainly possible that the government's position (that the vents should be closed) is wrong, and if so, they need to clarify the record. But I'm far more suspicious of BP's position -- that we don't need to close the vents -- and it all comes down to one reason: money.

Let me explain. The one thing that everybody agrees on is that if the vents were closed and we could bring all the oil to the surface, we'd have a good idea what the flow rate actually is. Another independent researcher is now pegging the rate at 100,000 barrels per day, but if we captured all the oil, we'd have a much more reliable figure for the flow-rate.

So what does that have to do with money? Well, if you were BP, you'd know the fines that will be levied against you are calculated by the barrel. And if you're BP and you've been spewing 100,000 barrels per day since April 20, you be looking at a fine so far of $21.5 billion -- a fine that's growing ever single day. (That's if they get hit with the $4,300 per barrel maximum.)

And if the flow rate is as high as 100,000 as some fear, then as long as the well is flowing, BP has a financial incentive to not bring all the oil to the surface, because bringing the oil to the surface will allow us to calculate the total flow rate. Given that reality, when BP starts downplaying the urgency of closing vents to bring more oil to the surface, it's only natural to be suspicious. (And when they start talking about needing to wait for a new cap to be deployed sometime in July, there's even more reason to be suspicious.)

If BP is playing games here with capturing the oil, the administration needs to put it to an end, and they need to do it now. Either way, this is a critical -- and perhaps defining -- moment of this crisis, and the administration needs to get it right.

So says Politico's Mike Allen:

Top Arkansas sources tell us the state’s political establishment expects Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) to LOSE her primary runoff tonight by at least 5 points -- and perhaps 7 to 10, since insurgents have been outperforming their polls this year. That’ll make her the fifth incumbent member of Congress to get fired even before November. She’ll be the third senator (after Bennett of Utah and Specter of Pennsylvania), making the most primary-season defeats for senators since 1980, when four went down. (hat tip: Howard Mortman) Two House incumbents also have lost: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) and Rep. Parker Griffith (R-Ala.), who switched D. In another time, Lincoln’s seat on the Agriculture Committee would have served as an insurance policy with voters in the rural state. Now, anything about Washington is bad. For once, the media aren’t exaggerating: It’ll be an ugly November for insiders.

That analysis should probably be honed a bit: it's not necessarily an ugly year for insiders across the board, it's an ugly year for pols who have betrayed the basic principles of their party. Her obstruction on health reform is just a drop in the bucket of betrayal Dems feel.

And it's an ugly year for the corporatists. Dems voting in today's primary aren't going to be swayed by her argument that labor--representing the working people of Arkansas--are some evil force in politics when they can look at where her support is coming from:

$10,000 from Chevron
$5000 from ExxonMobil
$5000 from Occidental Petroleum
$4000 from British Petroleum
$7000 from Anadarko
$6000 from Bayer
$5500 from Blue Cross Blue Shield
$5000 from Boeing
$5000 from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
$6000 from Comcast
$6500 from Goldman Sachs
$6500 from JP Morgan Chase
$7000 from Lockheed Martin
$8000 from Wal-Mart

Lincoln is not losing because people are pissed at insiders. Lincoln's losing because she's a piss poor excuse for a Democrat, and Arkansas Dems are tired of being betrayed.

If you're feeling last-minute fiscal enthusiasm for Bill Halter, here's where to go.

There's more discussion in KingofSpades' diary.

Rand Paul, Kentucky's Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate, fed up with all of the negative press since his primary victory, is fighting back with an op-ed where he can deny his own words and play the victim without any pesky follow-up questions.

Says Paul:

In the end, all that remains of any of us is our reputation. Mine has been sullied over the past week by lies and innuendo.

Actually, Paul's reputation has been sullied by the words coming out of his own mouth, which explains why a candidate for the U.S. Senate has been mostly holed-up in some undisclosed location, coming out only to deposit a hit-and-run column in a local newspaper that blames the liberal media for his problems ... although he'll be hard-pressed to blame the media for his inability to spell the names of some of his self-proclaimed heroes:

When I read history I side with abolitionists such as William Lloyd Garrison and Frederick Douglas ... I cheer Lerone Bennet ...

But leaving aside the obvious problem with Paul defending the indefensible while equating himself with abolitionist and civil right's era icons, his inclusion of smoking in restaurants as one of the "God-given liberties" that must be protected along with the Civil Rights Act must be noted:

In 2010, there are battles that need to be fought, and they have nothing to do with race or discrimination, but rather the rights of people to be free from a nanny state.

For example, I am opposed to the government telling restaurant owners that they cannot allow smoking in their establishments. I believe we as consumers can choose whether to patronize a smoke-filled restaurant or do business with a smoke-free option.  [...]

My overriding principle is this: I believe in the natural right of all individuals to have their God-given liberty protected. And that’s why I believe the Civil Rights Act was necessary, and that I would have voted for it.

So, let's get this straight ... Paul is fine with restaurants being able to tell people to leave because of the color of their skin but not because of the cigarette in their hand?

Suddenly the near-total media boycott makes perfect sense.  

# # #

Please support Rand Paul's Democratic opponent, Jack Conway: he's a good guy, he needs our help, and he can win.

The biggest primary day of the 2010 election cycle is now upon us, as polls are now open from coast to coast. A total of roughly a dozen states head to the ballot boxes today, and, as you have come to expect, the crew here at Daily Kos will be all over it this afternoon and evening.

What follows is a short clip-and-save guide of what to expect, and when to expect it, later today. If you want the unabridged version, you can check out exhaustive previews of the night's festivities from both The Swing State Project and Sunday Kos.

7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT--Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia

• Does Nikki Haley hold on despite scandal in SC-Gov?
• Is GOP incumbent Bob Inglis (SC-04) the next to get teabagged?
• Who wins the competitive heads-up contest in VA-11?
• Do the NRCC "establishment" picks hang on in VA-02 and VA-05?
• Does anyone care which Republican wins the seat in GA-09?

8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT--Maine, New Jersey

• Who will win arguably the biggest tossups of the night--ME-Gov?
• How does GOP "rising star" Jon Runyan do in NJ-03?
• Is GOP freshman Leonard Lance (NJ-07) in any danger of getting teabagged?

8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT--Arkansas

• Does Bill Halter finish off Blanche Lincoln in the AR-Sen runoff?
• Who emerges from the pack in the three House runoffs in the Natural State?
• Is a Palin endorsement still voter repellent (watch Cecile Bledsoe in AR-03)?

9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT--North Dakota, South Dakota

• Does NRCC pick Rick Berg cruise to victory in ND-AL?
• Who does Scott Heidepriem draw as a GOP opponent in SD-Gov?
• Who emerges from the field to take on Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD-AL)?

10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT--Iowa, Montana, Nevada

• How close is the GOP primary to take on IA-Gov Chet Culver?
• Are conventions necessary to find a GOP nominee in IA-02 and IA-03
• Does Denny Rehberg risk an underwhelming performance in MT-AL, and what Democrat emerges to be his November opponent?
• What kind of vote tally does Harry Reid get in NV-Sen?
• Who will be Reid's opponent? Does the Chicken Lady still have some pluck (oooh...apologies for that one)? Or will Sharron Angle finish the job? Can Danny Tarkanian come from behind?
• Is the career of NV-Gov Jim Gibbons over?

11:00 PM ET/8:00 PM PT--California

• Do late polls confirm Meg Whitman's GOP landslide (CA-Gov)?
• Likewise, does Carly Fiorina have the GOP CA-Sen nod locked down?
• How close can Winograd come to Harman (CA-36)?
• Is Gary Miller in any danger of a teabagging (CA-42)?
• Is this is the end of the line for Richard Pombo (CA-19)?
• What other primaries emerge as stories (just a handful to watch: CA-08, CA-11, CA-33, CA-47, CA-50)?

Check with us later this afternoon, and we will have many of these answers by the close of the night.

What's the Tea Party really mean for American politics? GOP losses, most likely.

In a new ABC/WaPo poll, it's notable that

The poll also finds growing disapproval of the "tea party" movement, with half the population now expressing an unfavorable impression of the loosely aligned protest campaign that has shaken up politics this year.

But there's more to it than that.

In a memo from the Democratic Governors Association, exec director Nathan Daschle argues ("convincingly", says Politico) that in key races, Republicans are being forced to run to the right, positioning themselves poorly for the general in November. From the DGA memo:

What we’ve learned in this race for the base is that Meg Whitman [CA] really likes a border fence and insider stock deals at Goldman Sachs, that Terry Branstad [IA] needs Sarah Palin to burnish his conservative cred, and that Brian Sandoval [NV] is willing to alienate Latinos in his effort to appeal to conservatives and unglue himself from the largest tax increase in Nevada history.

The truth is, the GOP candidates on the ballot today all should have had cakewalks to their nominations. Instead, the “Tea Party effect” has forced the leading GOP candidates to spend countless millions to fend off primary opponents, pushed them to embrace failed Republican policies and – maybe most importantly – has led them to lurch to the far right in states where moderation is key to winning independents.

ME, SC and SD are included. Take Maine, for example, home of so-called moderate Republicans no more:

As Mike Tipping at Maine Politics describes the platform Daschle notes: “The official platform for the Republican Party of Maine is now a mix of right-wing fringe policies, libertarian buzzwords and outright conspiracy theories.” Republicans’ platform praises the Tea Party movement, calls global warming a “myth,” and demands the elimination of the U.S. Department of Education.

The DGA obviously feels good about some of these races, but the larger message should not be lost. There's a civil war within the Republican Party, and establishment Republicans are losing. True believers thought that was good for the party in 1964, and even now many of them think the outcome then was just fine (since it led to a more conservative GOP despite the '64 election results.)

But if you're not a true believer (and most people aren't, nor do they think Sarah Palin is qualified to be President, nor do they think the GOP as it stands today is offering solutions - 6 of 10 disapprove of congressional GOP policy), this is going to seriously harm Republican chances in the fall, and do significant damage moving forward.

Don't believe it? Ask Latinos what they think of AZ, and Californians what they think of Pete Wilson. Oh, wait - isn't that Meg Whitman's campaign co-chairman?

Wilson, who served as the state's top executive from 1991 to 1999, was a champion of Proposition 187, a controversial immigration measure barring illegal immigrants from receiving any public services. The measure played a large role in Wilson's victorious re-election effort -- and, even though it was later ruled by a federal judge to be unconstitutional, has also caused deep and lasting damage to the Republican Party's relationship with Latinos.

(For a taste of the tenor of the 1994 campaign, check out Wilson's "Border Crossing" ad, which shows grainy black-and-white footage of a border crossing while a narrator ominously intones, "They keep coming").

Remember, outside of the Tea Party, immigration reform is still hugely popular. And I don't see a groundswell to eliminate the Department of Education or demand Obama show his birth certificate, either.

And all of that is without even mentioning Rand Paul.

According to Admiral Thad Allen's Monday morning briefing on the federal response to BP's oil spill, one of the key remaining challenges in BP's latest containment gambit is closing the vents of the production cap placed over the leaking pipe:

Good morning. First a quick operational update. In the last 24 hours, the production of the Discover Enterprise over the wellhead produced 11,000 barrels of oil. They continue to increase -- over the first three days of operation we have gone from 6,000 to 11,000 -- trying to increase that production rate, ultimately close the venting valves and move to a greater capacity.

BP anticipates moving another craft in that can actually handle additional production, and the combination of these two -- the vessel is actually called the Q4000 -- combined will have a production capability of about 20,000 barrels a day. And we're looking to increase production, as I said, so we can slowly close those vents and see how the containment cap is working and whether or not any oil is forced down by the pressure through the rubber seals, as we've talked about before.

But while Allen was saying that closing the vents is a key priority, the New York Times this morning reports that BP had already stopped trying to close the vents -- on Sunday.

On Sunday, engineers halted their efforts to close all four vents on the capping device, because even with one vent closed, the amount of oil being captured was approaching 15,000 barrels a day, the processing capacity of the collection ship at the surface.

Note that according to the Times, the reason BP stopped trying to close the vents was that they did not have sufficient surface production capacity. That's consistent with what Thad Allen said: that BP needs to expand its surface production capacity in order to handle a greater flow of oil that would come from closing the vents. (Echoes of Fishgrease, eh?)

Now here's where it gets interesting: while Thad Allen and the New York Times (and Fishgrease!) are focused on BP's need to expand its surface production capacity, BP is arguing that closing the vents is no big deal, and that they don't need to do it at all.

Here's BP executive Kent Wells talking about the vents at a briefing yesterday afternoon (after Allen's):

We've got oil and mainly gas coming out of the chimney vents at the top [of the production cap]. When we originally started to work with the tool, we thought that one of the keys to optimizing our ability to collect would be to close down those chimneys. In fact, what we found is our optimization is really done at the chokes on surface and leaving those vents open gives us great operability and I think the engineering and technical operations teams have learned a lot over the last three days about what we can do to optimize the collection we get from them...

...We believed that we would need to close those vents to avoid water coming in and that that would be the predominate factor in optimization. What we've actually found is that as we open the chokes at the surface we're still able to keep sufficient pressure that we don't have a lot of water coming in yet and it actually gives us the flexibility whenever we have to have an emergency shutdown...

...[When ships are forced to change heading due to external factors like weather] having those vents open gives us more flexibility so the LMRP cap doesn't come off. Those vents being open gives us flexibility, yet it hasn't affected our ability to collect. We had closed one of the valves but we haven't had to close all four yet, which is really different [Note: Wells may have said difficult].

...What our belief was that it would be difficult for us to operate it properly without closing them, but that has not proven to be the case. In fact, it might be helping us a bit...

...It hasn't been a factor that has gotten in the way of the team optimizing the oil that they've collected.

To review: Allen and the NYT say BP does not currently have sufficient surface production capacity to handle the oil flowing from the gushing well, but when (or, perhaps, if) BP achieves that capacity, then the vents can be closed.

Meanwhile, BP says the vents aren't having any impact on their ability to collect oil and in fact may be helpful. And complicating all of this, BP also says they are designing an entirely new cap to place on the well head sometime in July.

So here's the question: Why is BP on a different page than Allen? At least on the surface, it seems like they are less concerned with containing all the oil than he is. Why?

And here's the real point: Why are questions like this still lingering? If the administration wants to convey that it's in charge, then it needs to flatten things like this. If Allen got his facts wrong, then that's an issue that needs to be dealt with. And if BP is playing games, then it's time to "kick some ass." As long as confusing, contradictory information continues to flow, it's going to be impossible for the government to establish credibility. If BP is lying, say so, and say it bluntly. But don't send mixed signals and don't tell different stories. This is a crisis -- there's no way to muddle through it. It's a test that you either pass or fail.

Frustration with Washington is deep and unending, but that includes stark disapproval of GOP congressional policy. From a new ABC/WaPo poll (MoE +/- 3):

The national survey shows that 29 percent of Americans now say they are inclined to support their House representative in November, even lower than in 1994, when voters swept the Democrats out of power in the that chamber after 40 years in the majority.

The poll also finds growing disapproval of the "tea party" movement, with half the population now expressing an unfavorable impression of the loosely aligned protest campaign that has shaken up politics this year.

And at a time when Republicans anticipate significant gains in House and Senate elections, there is also fresh evidence of the challenges facing the GOP. Six in 10 poll respondents say they have a negative view of the policies put forward by the Republican minority in Congress, and about a third say they trust Republicans over Democrats to handle the nation's main problems.

Democrats are not off the hook, by any means. They hold the majority, and the country expects them to actually be doing something about the problems we face. Luckily for Democrats, there are Republicans.

Democrats are likely to suffer disproportionately from the tough climate: They are in the majority in both houses of Congress and are defending many more districts than Republicans. The public sees little improvement in the nation's direction or the state of the economy. Six in 10 say the country is on the wrong track and 88 percent rate the economy as not good or poor, with just 30 percent saying it is improving.

Yet Democrats maintain at least one advantage: They hold a double-digit edge over the GOP as the party that people trust to handle the country's main problems.

Another big element that may mute the threat to Democrats is that the GOP has not gained significant traction. Most Americans -- including nearly a third of self-identified Republicans -- say they are dissatisfied with or angry at the policies of congressional Republicans. These numbers have changed little since last November, despite the GOP's focus on offering a more concrete agenda rather than simply Democratic proposals.  

Concrete agenda? I didn't know "repeal health reform" was considered a concrete agenda. The country clearly doesn't think so.

One thing is pretty clear for this and other polling: Democrats are in trouble this fall (Dems only lead the generic ballot by 3 (47-44) and 59% say they could change their mind), and voters are very angry at Washington for helping Wall Street but not Main Street, but GOP strength is greatly exaggerated (as is the strength of the tea party outside of GOP primaries, where damage is being done to moderate and establishment Republican candidates.... see NV later today.)

Change is coming, but what it manifests as is not going to be so easily predictable. This doesn't fit neatly into the "Dems in disarray" and "Obama is Carter" narrative some in the media are trying to push. How can it when only a third of the country prefer R to D ideas and policy? Bush dead-enders always number a third.

Obama's overall approval ratings have remained fairly steady. More than half of those surveyed, 52 percent, say they approve of the way he is handling his job, and for the first time since last fall, half approve of how he is dealing with the economy.

I think the best analysis comes from a tongue-in-cheek Christopher Beam article speculating about if the headlines were written by political scientists and not pundits and political journos:

Obama now faces some of the most difficult challenges of his young presidency: the ongoing oil spill, the Gaza flotilla disaster, and revelations about possibly inappropriate conversations between the White House and candidates for federal office. But while these narratives may affect fleeting public perceptions, Americans will ultimately judge Obama on the crude economic fundamentals of jobs numbers and GDP.

True, that. But one thing has yet to play out: the BP FUBAR in the Gulf, anger at Wall Street, and how both hurt the Republican case for de-regulation the party has run on for years.

In the House, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

FLOOR SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY, JUNE 8, 2010

House Meets At... 2:00 p.m.: Legislative Business
First Vote Predicted... 6:00 p.m.
Last Vote Predicted... 6:30 p.m.

***Members are advised that votes will be postponed until 6:00 p.m., which is a change to the previously announced schedule.

"One Minutes"

Suspensions (5 Bills):

1. H.R. 4349 - Hoover Power Allocation Act (Rep. Napolitano - Natural Resources)
2. H.R. 2008 - Bonneville Unit Clean Hydropower Facilitation Act (Rep. Matheson - Natural Resources)
3. H.R. 1061 - Hoh Indian Tribe Safe Homelands Act (Rep. Dicks - Natural Resources)
4. H.Res. 518 - Honoring the life of Jacques-Yves Cousteau, explorer, researcher, and pioneer in the field of marine conservation (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen - Natural Resources)
5. H.Res. 989 - Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States should adopt national policies and pursue international agreements to prevent ocean acidification, to study the impacts of ocean acidification, and to address the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and coastal economies (Rep. Inslee - Natural Resources)

• Conference Reports may be brought up at any time.
• Motions to go to Conference should they become available.
• Possible Motions to Instruct Conferees.

In the Senate, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

Convenes: 10:00am

When it is available, it is the Majority Leader’s intention to ask the Chair to lay before the Senate the House Message with respect to HR4213, the Tax Extenders legislation.

The Senate will recess from 12:30pm until 2:15pm to allow for the weekly caucus luncheons.

Roll call votes are expected to occur throughout the day in relation to amendments to the Tax Extenders legislation.

Kinda-sorta a work day in the House. Look at that monstrous voting schedule! Votes from 6:00 through 6:30! It's a Travel Tuesday, as Members start filtering back into town following the Memorial Day break. Though yes, technically you can tell them to start that whole filtering thing on Monday. No law against that.

Nothing particularly weighty in the House today, though I'm sure you wouldn't say that if you were a Hoh. Or a Cousteau, I guess. Hey, it's a theme! Hoh, Cousteau, H2O. Clever! That Steny Hoyer is always thinking, you know?

On the Senate side, it's the bill variously referred to as another jobs bill, a sort of stimulus 2.0, or the more mundane tax extenders. Whatever name you give it, it's also got the unemployment insurance extension in it, plus the Medicare "doc fix" that helps avoid (or now, would retroactively undo) the drop of 20% or so in reimbursement rates. This was something that you may recall Harry Reid wanted to get done before the last break, but in the absence of any agreement on time and amendment limits for debate, it was pushed back to this week, meaning that the deadlines for both unemployment and the doc fix passed while they were out of session. Another all-too-infrequently noted consequence of the filibuster -- Senators can always threaten to add 3-5 days to the debate time of any bill, and when there's an important recess filled with patriotic-type events back home looming, Senators will be willing to let unemployment coverage lapse so as not to get in trouble over having to cancel events with veterans and the like. But today they're back on the case.

It's a light day in the committees as well, which is a good excuse to move our shiny new committee schedule widget above the fold today. Still hammering out some of the kinks, and we'll probably try to move to a custom-built tool some time in the future. But I think this one's relatively easy to use and easy to read. And not just because there are only seven meetings today. Though that helps. Well, it helps me. Not necessarily, you know, the rest of the country.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

Take Two

The media is all, um, a'twitter over George W. Bush's "new" Facebook page.  But they failed to mention his first whack at it, back in February, 2009. I remember it like it was yesterday...

George is now friends with Condi Rice, Karl Rove, Sean Hannity, Antonin Scalia and Tom DeLay

George W. Bush is sayin' howdy! My first post---wOOt! What's up?
3:08pm February 23

Scooter Libby at 3:09pm February 23
Why didn't you pardon me, you prick?

Sarah Palin at 3:09pm February 23
Thanks but no thanks. I'd rather pal around with terrorists.

Mitch McConnell at 3:10pm February 23
Now I can say it---you really sucked.

Tom DeLay invited you to join the Bitter Aging Texans Group

George is now friends with Dana Perino, Tony Blair and King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud

Grover Norquist at 3:11pm February 23
I told you to reduce the size of the government so you could drown it in the bathtub. You grew the size of the government, toweled it off, then blew up the bathtub. Your dad's right--you got hit with a special kind of dumbstick.
Scooter Libby, Sarah Palin and Mitch McConnell like this comment

Condi Rice at 3:12pm February 23
Friends 4evuh!!!  {{{Mr. President}}}

Dick Cheney at 3:13pm February 23
Why didn’t you pardon Scooter you prick???
Scooter Libby likes this comment

General Colin Powell (Ret.) sent you a bucket of virtual maggots.

Elizabeth Dole at 3:14pm February 23
Here---have a hot cuppa STFU
Bob Dole likes this comment

Michael Steele at 3:15pm February 23
Facebook is the only party in town, baby. Mainly because you KILLED OURS!!!

John McCain wants to send you a virtual can of coal slag and a bag of rusty nails

You now own the largest industrial lake of pig feces in Farmville

Norm Coleman just threw a shoe at you.

King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud at 3:35pm February 23
Where is the Scrabble page? I wish to play Scrabble now.
Scooter Libby likes this comment

Better luck with version 2.0, sir.

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