Could a little-known city councilman score an upset and flip a Senate seat to the Dems? Rasmussen thinks so, if the GOP nominee is conservative insurgent J.D. Hayworth. Don't worry, though, the Ras-ster returns to form elsewhere.
Also, you'll be surprised by the incumbent Senator who got outraised by his challenger this quarter, and one other incumbent Senator is fighting a pollster, which is rarely a good idea. All this and more, in the weekend edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
GA-Sen: Good News for Dems As They Get Solid Challenger for Isakson
In what sure looks to be a challenging year for Democrats, they are still managing to land some solid recruits to go after Republican incumbents. The latest example is in Georgia, where state labor commissioner Michael Thurmond is going to announce next week that he will challenge freshman Republican Senator Johnny Isakson. Thurmond gives Democrats a statewide elected official in the race, albeit one that will have to overcome fairly low name recognition, if a recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll in the state is any indication.
IA-Sen: Conlin Narrowly Outraises Grassley In Hawkeye State
This will come as a bit of a surprise to a lot of folks, and is a particularly pleasant one in a time when good news for Democrats in electoral politics is a touch hard to come by. Leading Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin actually beat Charles Grassley in the money chase in the 1st quarter. Conlin raised $ 629K, which edged out Grassley, who reported $ 613K for the quarter. Grassley, as a long-time incumbent, still retains one structural advantage to be expected: he has a five-to-one cash on hand edge over the challenger.
KY-Sen: Bunning-McConnell Feud Comes to 2010 Senate Race
Was this week's surprising endorsement of insurgent candidate Rand Paul by outgoing Republican Senator Jim Bunning a shot at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell? Reid Wilson at the National Journal thinks so, and he brings some pretty compelling evidence. For example, Bunning's claim that Paul's primary rival, Trey Grayson, was insufficiently conservative is somewhat rebutted by the fact that it was Bunning who encouraged Grayson to get into the race after his retirement. The sudden animus, therefore, could be more properly directed at McConnell, who earned Bunning's unyielding animosity for very overtly encouraging the retirement of his Senate mate.
The endorsement was a brutal slap at Grayson, who loses a key argument for his primary. Grayson had been making excellent hay out of the argument that Paul was endeavoring to be a national political figure, and had no real support in-state.
NV-Sen: Reid Fights The Polls (...and the Polls Won)
Apparently, the campaign of Senator Harry Reid forgot the maxim about not getting into fights with people who buy their ink by the barrel, because this one is just brutal to witness. You might recall that on Monday's edition of the Wrap, we noted a new Mason Dixon poll, taken for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, had Reid trailing leading Republican Sue Lowden by high single digits. The Reid campaign pounced on the poll, dismissing its findings on the logic that the poll did not list all of the available options listed to voters in the Fall, including the state's famous "None of the Above" option.
Inspired by the critique of the Reid campaign, Mason Dixon and the LVRJ simply...released another poll. With all of the options. Showing Reid losing this time by ten points (47-37). That led team Reid to criticize this poll as invalid, as well, saying that it was not of likely voters. The Reid campaign argued likely voter screens were particularly important in Nevada, a state they claim has chronically low voter turnout.
Not only did the newspaper dispute the charge, they were joined by Pollster writer Charles Franklin, who pointed out that random-digit dialing of registered voters is a perfectly valid polling method.
In other Nevada Senate news, Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, despite his mountain of legal woes, got one piece of good legal news this week. A Nevada State Court ruled that he could remain on the ballot, after his candidacy was challenged by a conservative lawsuit which stated that he could not stay on the ballot because he was still a registered Republican when he ran under the Tea Party banner.
NY-Sen: Schumer Might Finally Draw a Candidate
In a week where the GOP lost their top candidate to take on Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, they might have found a candidate to take on the other U.S. Senator in New York up for election this year: Chuck Schumer. The candidate is Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos. Maragos is a political newcomer of sorts, he has only served as county comptroller for about four months. Schumer is heavily favored to be re-elected to his third term in the Senate.
THE U.S. HOUSE
PA-12: Dems Get Serious About Holding Murtha Seat in Special Elex
Pulling together what the National Journal's Reid Wilson referred to as a "wartime budget", the DCCC has reserved almost a million bucks in ad time between now and the May 18th special election in southwestern Pennsylvania to replace the late John Murtha. The first ad hits Republican Tim Burns on favoring a national sales tax, saying that it will raise the costs on food, gas, and medicine. Burns squares off against Democrat Mark Critz in the election. The GOP released an internal poll last week showing Burns up narrowly.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
NH-Gov: Democratic Incumbent Announces Bid for 4th Term
This will come as a surprise to virtually no one, but Democratic Governor John Lynch announced that he will be seeking a fourth term as Governor of New Hampshire. Lynch was first elected in 2004 (NH Governors serve two-year terms) by defeating then-incumbent Republican Craig Benson. His main challenger this time around is likely to be Republican John Stephen. A recent Rasmussen poll had Lynch, routinely re-elected by huge margins, leading Stephen by double-digits, though below the 50% threshold.
OR-Gov: Great Moments in Debating, With John Kitzhaber
This sounds like something that only happens in really overproduced television political dramas, but it actually occurred Wednesday night at a Democratic gubernatorial debate. In the midst of a student-run debate at the University of Oregon between candidates John Kitzhaber and Bill Bradbury, someone in the audience screamed for a doctor for an elderly man having a seizure. Kitzhaber, who was an ER doctor before his foray into politics, left the stage and administered first aid to the man until paramedics arrived. After a twenty-minute delay, the debate resumed. Bradbury, to his credit, was fulsome in his praise for Kitzhaber's handling of the incident, as well as his ability to resume debating after dealing with such an event. A raw video of the event is available here.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Ras stays out West to close out the week, hitting three states in the Intermountain West: Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. Could Rodney Glassman pull off the upset of 2010 if J.D. Hayworth finds a way to knock off John McCain? Ras has it closer than you might think. Other than that, this edition of the Ras-A-Palooza is just Ras being Ras.
AZ-Gov (R): Gov. Jan Brewer 26%, Buz Mills 18%, John Munger 14%, Dean Martin (R) 12%
AZ-Sen (R): Sen. John McCain 47%, J.D. Hayworth 42%
AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) 54%, Rodney Glassman (D) 32%
AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth (R) 48%, Rodney Glassman (D) 39%
CO-Gov: Scott McInnis (R) 48%, John Hickenlooper (D) 42%
UT-Gov: Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 57%, Peter Corroon (D) 29%
UT-Sen (R): Sen. Robert Bennett 37%, Tim Bridgewater 14%, Mike Lee 14%, Merrill Cook 6%, Cherilyn Eagar 4%