A lot of data floating around (a lot of it from Rasmussen), not to mention quite a bit of news from the campaign trail. It is a particularly busy Friday...a fine way to close out the week on the Wrap.

THE U.S. SENATE

CO-Sen: Dem Primary Heats Up With Endorsements and Campaign Stops
The Democratic Senate primary in Colorado, which has been rather moribund of late, has picked up steam, as challenger Andrew Romanoff snagged two major endorsements from organized labor in the person of the UFCW and the Teamsters. The incumbent, appointed Senator Michael Bennet, countered with a high-profile advocate of his own--President Obama. Obama will stump with Bennet next week on a campaign tour that will also take Obama to the Silver State on behalf of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

FL-Sen: Is Rubio's Success Going To His Head?
Marco Rubio, it is safe to say, has become the frontrunner in the Florida GOP Senate primary. That has been propelled, in no small part, by a very affectionate treatment from a local media that has clearly fallen in love with this story. That might be changing, however, as attempts by his staff to insulate Rubio from the media crush is royally ticking off some of the local media. After a campaign appearance, the normally accessible Rubio team limited access to the candidate to a pair of TV stations, and at least one local newspaper editorial has ripped him for it.

MO-Sen: Rasmussen Returns To Show-Me State, With Similar Results
Another month, another poll of the potentially competitive open-seat Senate race out of Missouri by Rasmussen. Rasmussen gives us almost identical numbers to last month, giving Republican Roy Blunt a seven-point lead (49-42) over Democrat Robin Carnahan. The two are the leading candidates of their parties in competition for the seat being abandoned by retiring Republican Kit Bond.

NV-Sen: Reid Loses A Potentially Strong Senate Opponent
This, I suppose, qualifies as good news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: Nevada's Republican Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki announced that, contrary to expectations, he will not run for the Senate. Krolicki, after being absolved of public corruption charges late last year, seemed likely to make the jump into the Senate race. The potential benefit for Reid here is sketchy, however, since all recent polling shows him trailing even the second-tier Republicans in the field.

NH-Sen: Rasmussen (More Or Less) Confirms DK/R2K Poll
Rasmussen hits the Granite State as part of their return to Ras-A-Palooza, and their numbers are actually pretty similar to our numbers here at Daily Kos last week. Democratic frontrunner Paul Hodes trails "establishment" GOPer Kelly Ayotte by seven points (46-39), while Hodes leads the "conservative alternative" candidate, Ovide Lamontagne, by six points (44-38). Against self-funder Bill Binnie, the race is a true toss-up (Binnie 42-41).

ND-Sen: Prairies Are A Certain Pickup For GOP, According to Ras
No one really had North Dakota in their toss-up column once Democratic Byron Dorgan retired early last month. But if new numbers from Rasmussen are to be believed, even giving the Democrats a slim chance of hanging onto this seat appear to be a tad optimistic. Rasmussen has the likely Republican nominee, Governor John Hoeven blasting either Democrat contemplating a bid. Hoeven beats former state AG Heidi Heitkamp (65-29), and beats state legislator Tracy Potter by an even wider margin (71-17).

THE U.S. HOUSE

AZ-03: Famous Name Added To Growing GOP Field in Phoenix Burbs
The Republican field to replace the retiring John Shadegg in AZ-03 already sported three former state legislators and a former gubernatorial candidate. It now features...a Quayle. Ben Quayle, the son of former Vice-President Dan Quayle, announced that he will add his name to the growing field on the GOP side. Quayle looks, from his earliest statements on the race, to be making a generational appeal (he is in his early 30s). It's worth noting that such a move worked well for his father, whose political rise to stardom began with seizing a U.S. House seat at just 29 years of age.

ND-AL: Rasmussen Also Makes Amazing Claim About ND House Race
The battle to be the sole House member from North Dakota is closer than expected, if the new Rasmussen poll out today is to be believed. Rasmussen claims that longtime Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy is actually trailing Republican state legislator Rick Berg (46-40), while holding only modest leads over fellow potential GOP contenders Kevin Cramer and Paul Shaffner. This was dramatically different from the DK/R2K polls last month, which had Pomeroy leading handily, albeit underneath the 50% threshold of safety for incumbent Congressmen.

OR-01: Self-Funding Republican Reverses Course on 2010 Bid
Although he has been elected rather easily in the past several cycles, Democrat David Wu was staring at one of his most potentially competitive races to date this year when self-funder Stephen Broadhead entered the race on the GOP side. After directing nearly a quarter of a million dollars into his own campaign coffers, however, Broadhead reversed course today, citing the strength of another candidate in the field, businessman Rob Cornilles. He then reversed course again, saying he was only suspending his campaign, which he would re-charge if the candidates proved to be insufficiently conservative.

PA-12: Is Murtha Widow Being Recruited To Run For Congress?
An interesting rumor developed today: is it possible that Joyce Murtha, the widow of recently departed Pennsylvania Congressman John Murtha, being recruited to replace her late husband in Congress? Such a move is not unprecedented: indeed, three members of the House (Republican Mary Bono Mack, along with Democrats Lois Capps and Doris Matsui) followed their late husbands into Congress. Certainly, this would not be an act of desperation: the Democratic bench in the district is actually pretty deep. Leading candidates being mentioned include former Lt. Gov Mark Singel, former state treasurer Barbara Hafer (who flirted with a bid in the neighboring 18th a few years back), and state senator/longtime Murtha ally John Wozniak.

RI-01: First Candidates Being Mentioned In Wake of Kennedy Shocker
Less than 24 hours after the rather surprising announcement of eight-term Democratic Congressman Patrick Kennedy's retirement, some candidate names are already emerging. One of them, in particular, should be familiar to political junkies. Nicholas Pell, the thirty-something grandson of longtime Rhode Island Senator Claiborne Pell, is mulling a bid.

TX-08: Poe Picks Colleague over Staffer in Awkward Endorsement
This had to be a pretty touchy decision: TX-02 Congressman Ted Poe was faced with an uncomfortable choice. A competitive Republican primary in the neighboring 8th district matched his House colleague, Kevin Brady, against a longtime Poe staffer, Melecio Franco. Poe got off the fence less than three weeks from primary day, giving his nod to the incumbent.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

IL-Gov: First Post-Primary Poll Gives Dems A Solid Lead
In the immediate wake of last week's competitive gubernatorial primaries in the land of Lincoln, a new poll from Victory Research puts the incumbent Governor, Pat Quinn, into a solid lead over either potential GOP rival (remember: the GOP primary, decided by less than 600 votes, is still in flux). If the current GOP leader, Bill Brady, holds onto his nomination, Quinn leads the race by eleven points (42-31). The more "moderate" alternative for Republicans, state Senator Kirk Dillard, comes closer to the incumbent, but still trails by six (41-35). A Green Party candidate, Rich Whitney, trails badly with 3-4% of the vote. Quinn also narrowly won his primary, but his opponent Dan Hynes conceded the race late last week with the margin of victory hovering around 8000 votes.

MI-Gov: Rasmussen Gives GOP Early, But Not Overwhelming, Edge
In a state that has been brutalized in the current economic crisis, one might expect that Michigan might take its anger out on the incumbent party in the governor's mansion. That said, Democrats are at least within striking distance, according to a new Rasmussen Poll. When pairing the three leading Republicans (Congressman Peter Hoekstra, state AG Mike Cox, and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard) against the two leading Democrats (Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and state House Speaker Andy Dillon), the GOP wins five of those six combinations. The sole exception is a one-point win for Andy Dillon over Mike Cox. The leads for the GOP are pretty modest, mostly in the six-to-ten point range.

PA-Gov: Republican Corbett With Monster Lead, According to Ras
If Rasmussen is to be believed in the Keystone State, the GOP is on their way to a rout of a pickup in the battle to replace the term-limited Ed Rendell. The presumptive Republican nominee, state AG Tom Corbett, has a double-digit lead over any of the prospective Dems in the field. The closest battle, in fact, is a pretty one-sided 49-28 lead for Corbett over state Auditor Jack Wagner. Corbett also enjoys sizeable edges over former Congressman Joe Hoeffel (51-29) and Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (52-26). One possible caveat--Corbett's favorabilities are cartoonish enough in this case (67/15) to almost raise a red flag all on their own. Without question, he is popular. Without question, he's the favorite in this race. But...67/15?

TX-Gov: UT Jumps Into Polling Game, Looks At Gubernatorial Race
The University of Texas adds their data to the growing pile (PDF File) of polls in the competitive gubernatorial race in the Lone Star State. UT comes closest, it could be argued, to PPP, with incumbent Governor Rick Perry well in front and a two-man race for the runner-up position. UT has Perry leading with 45%, followed by Kay Bailey Hutchison at 21% and Debra Medina at 19%. On the Democratic side, it is a laugher, with former Houston Mayor Bill White leading Farouk Shami 50-11. In the general election, UT confirms all other recent pollsters (including DK/R2K) by stating that White trails his GOP rivals in the single digits. Both Rick Perry (44-35) and KBH (43-34) lead the Democrat by nine points, which is a bit wider than DK/R2K had the race.

In other news, UT also polled one of the most interesting downballot primaries in the Lone Star State. For those eagerly awaiting data on the Ag Commissioner's battle, Kinky Friedman has a lead over Hank Gilbert, but within the margin of error.

Just in time for Valentines Day, the campaign arm for House Republicans (the NRCC) issues a little love to their newest incumbent Republican, Alabama's Parker Griffith:

A letter sent this month by an attack arm of the Republican members of Congress seeks money to defeat Griffith and other "vulnerable out-of-touch Democrats."

"We've been up on the air all over Alabama's 5th Congressional District so that voters there know your Democrat in Congress has been falling in line with Nancy Pelosi's destructive liberal agenda," reads the solicitation.

The problem, of course, is that Parker Griffith joined the Republican Party over six weeks ago.

Griffith, to his credit, was able to laugh it off with a deadpan response: "I guess I'll have to call them and see if they'll take me off the list."

This is the latest in a series of political humiliations both small and large for the nouveau Republican. In his six-week tenure as a Republican, Griffith has endured slings and arrows ranging from getting blasted by statewide GOP officials like state treasurer Kay Ivey to getting the cold shoulder from GOP county committees in his district to being stonewalled on committee assignments for well over a month.

Add to that, he still faces two well-funded Republicans (in the persons of Mo Brooks and Les Phillip) who refused to stand down when he made the party switch in late December. It is not unlikely that when the primary and runoff season in Alabama ends late in the Spring, that Parker Griffith may well not even be the Republican nominee.

If he does somehow emerge, he now faces legitimate Democratic opposition, as after a very quiet interval, a trio of potentially strong Democrats announced bids for Congress within days of one another.

Many people speculated at the time that Griffith's defection was an act of political survival in a district that was hostile to President Obama from the outset.

It'd be amusing to see someone ask him how that political survival thing is going thus far.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/8-2/10. Likely Voters. No trend lines.

Buoyed by having the highest favorability spread among Republicans (though, by far, the lowest with the general electorate), Governor Rick Perry leads his two rivals in the competitive three-way GOP primary coming up on March 2nd.

However, it looks like Perry might be hard pressed to make it to a majority of the GOP electorate, meaning that the incumbent might be forced into a runoff on April 13th. Anticipating that, potential runoffs were also polled, though admittedly the odds of a Hutchison-Medina runoff are more than a little remote:

Perry clearly has not sealed the deal with either the Medina or the KBH vote in a runoff, as his runoff totals are only scant improvements over the amount he receives in a three-way tabulation. This is somewhat intriguing, since Medina is seen as the far-right candidate, while Hutchison is what passes for a "moderate" Republican in Texas.

Awaiting the GOP nominee, in all likelihood, will be former Houston Mayor Bill White, who has held significant leads in every Democratic poll to date. Recent polls by both PPP and Rasmussen have shown that White could be potentially competitive in November. This is a point confirmed by the general election trial heats in our DK/R2K poll:

White is presently in striking distance, no matter which Republican emerges from a bruising primary. As evidence of exactly how bruising this primary has become, there are more Republican undecideds than either Independents or Democrats.

Incidentally, this poll was conducted before upstart Republican challenger Debra Medina seemed to imply a certain degree of kinship with the 9/11 truther movement (though she later vehemently denied it). Medina said on the Glenn Beck show that "the American people have not seen all of the evidence there." The following day, Medina dug in a bit deeper, likening trutherism to...well...birtherism:

The 9/11 Commission report, you know, great sections of that are redacted and they’re top secret. That makes us all wonder, well what’s happening back there? The same is true with the birth certificate thing. I think it’s healthy that people are asking questions.

It will be intriguing to see how big a liability, if at all, this will be with the Texas GOP primary electorate.

Greg Sargent has an important post. Responding to a Robert Gibbs in today's press briefing in which he "blamed the 'process' for failure to deliver," Cantor responded:

Quick question for the Administration: Who controls the process?

CHEAT SHEET: Government 101 in 10 seconds or less:
The White House: President Barack Obama (Democrat)
The U.S. House of Representatives: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Democrat)
The U.S. Senate: Majority Leader Harry Reid (Democrat)

Yes, the Republicans obstruct. But will blaming them for everything that has not happened in Washington make a damned bit of difference when voters are very well aware of who is in control in D.C.? Greg:

That leaves Dems with three choices. They can scale way back and find common ground with the GOP. Or they can press forward and continue highlighting GOP obstructionism, in hopes that the public will eventually tune in to the procedural shenanigans and blame everything on Republicans. That’s unlikely, however.

Or Dems can try to change the underlying dynamic — as hard as this might appear — by challenging, and perhaps changing, the procedural realities that make this dynamic possible.

If I were a Democratic leader, I’d probably start seriously considering the third option, because the current dynamic isn’t working all that well for them.

Choice number one is no choice--there won't be common ground. Period. Choice two won't gain Dems anything. Choice three is all they've got, and with that power that Cantor so helpfully highlights for them, there's choices for Obama and Congressional leaders. They've got three fantastic opportunities in front of them right now.

Reconciliation for the healthcare bill, and if necessary, jobs. Recess appointments for filibustered nominees. Acting on proposed filibuster reform to be ready to put it in place at the beginning of the next Congress.

Don't just hold out the potential to act--that only results in the kind of mocking attitude from Republicans Cantor shows. Decisive, bold, action now can and will break through the "process" Gibbs laments, and show America that Dems can govern.

Update: NBC should be ashamed for showing video of the crash that took the life of Mr. Kumaritashvili.

First, condolences to the family, friends and teammates of Nodar Kumaritashvili, the 21-year old luger from the former Soviet republic of Georgia, who died today after crashing during a training run.

Let the games of the XXI Winter Olympics begin -- well, not the games, the opening ceremony from Vancouver, British Columbia.

And this is an event that will truly have something for everyone ... because even if you don't like sports in general or the Olympics in particular, there is an "informal coalition of activists" who have put out a call for:

... all anti-capitalist, Indigenous, housing rights, labor, migrant justice, environmental, anti-war, community-loving, anti-poverty, civil libertarian, and anti-colonial activists to come together to confront this two-week circus.

Of course making a protest sign for that would be a nightmare, so instead, sit back, enjoy the show, and remember what the Olympic spirit is all about:

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

God Bless Our Time-Honored Traditions

Flushed with anticipation and ready to emerge from another long, cold winter, millions of Americans participated this week in the annual tradition of trimming their pubic regions in time for Valentine's Day.

A ritual as old as time itself, this year's pubis-shearing is expected to be among the largest in decades, with more than 20,000 tons of curly clippings predicted to fall by Feb. 14.  ...

According to statistics from the National Depilatory Council, the week before Valentine's Day is by far the busiest time of the year for shaving, trimming, sculpting, playful pattern-making, waxing, and even manscaping. ...

"There's a huge spike every year in the first half of February," said Brooks Watson, who is head of sales at Schick, makers of the TrimStyle razor for women. "The rest of the year, Americans generate about 50,000 tons of total trimmings, but in the week before this special holiday we see a massive jump. It's a veritable clear-cutting down there."

"Bzzzzzzzz," he added. "Timber!"

---The Onion

Your west coast-friendly edition of Cheers and Jeers---keeping Daily Kos classy since 2003---starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Coming up on Sunday Kos ....

• Since Sarah Palin all but declared her candidacy for president last weekend, Angry Mouse will rant about -- what else? -- Sarah Palin.
• The Great Recession has made life tough for a large proportion of Americans, but no group has been harder hit than young adults. Meteor Blades will explore the economic crunch for those aged 16-24.
• Dante Atkins will ask not whether you have the power, but whether you are using it.
• If you thought the push for global nuclear disarmament was all about pie-in-the-sky idealism and peace activists, think again. Many of the people involved are old Cold Warriors from the Reagan years, and beyond, including former Ambassador Richard Burt. Plutonium Page will publish her interview with Ambassador Burt, discussing his involvement in the leadership of the Global Zero initiative, and the outcome of this year's Global Zero summit.
• Coming to Valentine's Day as a stranger, Laura Clawson will investigate some of its customs
• exmearden will discuss health care costs and rationing in the US; the political becomes the personal.
• DarkSyde will discuss Prof. Sean Carroll's new book From Eternity to Here: The Quest for the Ultimate Theory of Time, and the cosmologist astrophysicist blogger himself plans to join in.

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka writes at HuffPo:

The NLRB's job is to protect workers' rights -- but for more than two years it has been functioning with only two members instead of the five it should have. Working people need an NLRB that can enforce the National Labor Relations Act -- not one hobbled by vacancies.

President Obama's nominees -- Craig Becker and Mark Pearce -- are highly qualified, well-respected labor lawyers who were nominated seven months ago, in July.

But Senate Republicans have ignored the working people they represent and blocked the appointments.

Yesterday, in a deal with the Republican minority, the Senate confirmed 27 non-controversial Obama appointees. The White House apparently has agreed not to make Presidents Day recess appointments -- a process that allows the president to temporarily appoint his own nominee while Congress is out of session. That means NLRB nominees -- and working people -- are out in the cold.

A big win for the Republicans. A big win for corporations that want to file down the teeth of the NLRB. A big loss for working people.

We're used to the Republicans playing the role of Lucy and yanking the football away each time Charlie Brown tries to kick it. We've seen it on health care, jobs legislation, you name it.

President Obama has to end this farce....

Give recess appointments to Craig Becker and Mark Pearce during the Presidents Day recess so the NLRB can do its job.

Via Aravosis, the organization is backing up that call to action from Trumka with a real call to action, mobilizing their activist network.

Enough is enough. Call the White House switchboard today and demand that President Obama fight Republican obstructionism and use his executive power to appoint Craig Becker and Mark Pearce to the NLRB during the Presidents Day recess.

Call the White House Switchboard NOW: 202-456-1111 OR 202-456-1414.

This would be a win-win for Obama. He could energize the base and show Republicans that the White House is serious about breaking through their obstruction with action. As a bonus, he could also finally have his administration fully staffed.

With the disastrous campaign rollout for Indiana Republican Dan Coats this past two weeks, it looked like someone had finally eclipsed former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. for the title of worst campaign rollout in the 2010 campaign cycle.

Apparently, Harold is not letting his title go without a fight:

Earlier this week, John Cook of Gawker asked the campaign of Harold Ford of Tennessee, Merrill Lynch, the DLC, NBC and the Park Avenue Regency whether Ford, despite living in Manhattan since 2007, had ever filed a state tax return.
It took a few days, but Ford's LIEberman flack Tammy Sun got back to Cook with the shocking answer -- "No."

Ford evidently claimed to work entirely out of Merrill Lynch's office in Nashville (where there is no income tax), and arranged to have his untold multi-million dollars in salary and bonuses paid there.

There is simply no good direction for Ford to go on this one. Ford has built his entire campaign apparatus in New York (where he is flirting with a primary challenge to freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand) on the premise that he left Tennessee for his "new home" in New York City a few years back. Either he lied about that, and has never left Tennessee except to make a few bucks, or he is a "transplant to New York" who has evaded taxes.

Even if, somehow, his lawyers and accountants can find legality in claiming Tennessee residency while maintaining an office (and, at least, some public profile) in New York, the political opportunity costs for him here are frighteningly steep. It is going to be hard to hammer your opponent on...say...tax reform when your personal definition of tax reform is apparently not to claim residence in the state where you live, work, and are seeking election.

Especially interesting since in an appearance yesterday in Buffalo (where he is courting the endorsement of Mayor Byron Brown), Ford said that "Jobs, taxes, the economy, [are] foremost on people's minds everywhere."

If taxes weren't "foremost" on the minds of the New York electorate before this revelation, they probably will be in the near future.

Last week the Obama administration, Congress, and the California state insurance commissioner all took aim at Anthem Blue Cross in the wake of reports that the company was raising rates on individual subscribers by as much as 39 percent.

The company has responded to a letter from Sebelius demanding information.

Financial woes have pushed healthier people to drop coverage or buy cheaper plans, the company argued to Sebelius, who had demanded an explanation this week for the company's decision to raise premiums by as much as 39 percent. As a result of losing those customers and holding on to sicker ones, the insurer said, its individual business in California operated at a loss during 2009 and an increase in rates would cover the anticipated shortfall this year.

"While this dynamic always exists, in a challenging economy it becomes more prevalent as individuals who are paying for coverage without a government or employer subsidy must choose to continue coverage or use the money for other necessities," wrote Brian A. Sassi, president and CEO of the consumer business unit at WellPoint, Anthem's parent company.

Precisely why healthcare reform has to happen--insurers will continue to claim that market forces will force them to price their product out of the reach of the people who need it most. There just aren't the profits, they argue, in the market of healthier people. It would seem that the option of being in the business of creating more affordable plans for everyone--including the healthy customers they say they are losing, isn't profit-maximizing enough.

How much profit does Wellpoint (Anthem's parent company) need? As Sebelius pointed out in her response to the letter, their profit is already obscene.

"It remains difficult to understand how a company that made $2.7 billion in the last quarter of 2009 alone can justify massive increases that will leave consumers with nothing but bad options: pay more for coverage, cut back on benefits or join the ranks of the uninsured. High health care costs alone cannot account for a premium increase that is 10 times higher than national health spending growth," she said in a statement.

"Without comprehensive reform, fewer people will be able to afford health insurance and Anthem's decision to raise their rates only demonstrates the urgent need for real reforms that fix our broken health insurance system. Reform will end the worst insurance company practices and put doctors and patients — not insurance companies — in charge of medical decisions. If we fail to implement reform, insurance companies will continue to prosper while families will continue to struggle."

As if it wasn't all galling enough, Wellpoint CEO Angela Braly told the WSJ, with crocodile tears following, that there just wouldn't be any choice but to start over with reform.

The tragedy, as she sees it, is what "a wasted opportunity" it all turned out to be. "Health-care reform" soon became "health-insurance reform" exclusively. "It was a pivot that was—unfortunate," she says, "because it is not going to solve the longer-term problem."

It's hard to see how WellPoint could be to blame for surging health spending, Mrs. Braly says, when 85 cents out of every premium dollar or more "is paid out in the actual cost of care, doctors, hospitals, suppliers, drugs, devices." Confiscating the 2009 profits of the entire insurance industry would pay for two days of U.S. health care.

That, after the industry fought tooth and nail over the proposal that would have made this health care reform rather than insurance reform--the element that actually had the chance to create an alternative, public-based system. The bills as they exist without the public option, but particularly the House bill with its national exchange, would at least curb some of the worst abuses of insurers. Given their attitude toward their customers and toward the reform process, the least Congress should do is pass the House's reconciliation fix, then pass the Senate bill.

Update: A reader sends this e-mail, which was sent to the LA Times in response to their story on the rate increase. It reads in part:

On February 4, you reported on Athem's rate increase:

"Anthem Blue Cross dramatically raising rates for Californians with individual health policies"

As a result of this news, perhaps from you, the White House opened an investigation into the hike.

I want to report a 20% rate hike from my health insurer, HealthNet, Woodland Hills, CA. My premium increases $85 to $511.68, effective March 1. The announcement letter reads: "The same percentage increase applies to all members on the plan."

In February of 2009, my premium was $389.38. (They increased the premium again in July 2010 in honor of my birthday.) The newest rate represents a 31.4% increase since February a year ago. (If my math is correct.)

This policy has a $4800 deductible. I am self-employed, so must seek health insurance on my own.

I suppose 20% doesn't seem shocking to those who got a 39% increase, but it sure is shocking to me. Especially since I never use the insurance due to the high deductible. They won't even allow me to remove the maternity benefit from my policy (I'm over 50) to achieve a lower rate without going back to underwriting. My agent says I wouldn't get a new policy without paying an even higher premium.

Bet you never saw this one coming:

The Massachusetts man charged this week with stockpiling weapons after saying he feared an imminent "Armageddon" appears to have been active in the Tea Party movement, and saw Sarah Palin, who he said is on a "righteous 'Mission from God,'" as the only figure capable of averting the destruction of society.

... found with a stash of military grade weapons, explosive devices including tear gas and pepper ball canisters, camouflage clothing, knives, handcuffs, bulletproof vests and helmets, and night vision goggles, say police.  [...]

But it appears that Girard had lately found a community with which to share some of his growing fears. A "Greg Girard," listing his location as Manchester, Mass., has a personal page on the "Patriots of America" online network, a popular site affiliated with the Tea Party movement.

So, what prompted Girard to stock up (and advise his wife to shoot "traitors" in the head)? He was afraid President Obama was coming for his guns.

Of course no one could have anticipated that anyone would try to act on the unfounded fears the conservative media whips up about the President.

• Nick Beres provides a media example of how lynch mobs get started in his fear-mongering piece on WTVF-TV speculating with zero evidence that a Muslim community in Tennessee is a possible terrorist training operation. The local sheriff told him nothing is going on. And Beres got a tour of the place in which he turned up nothing. But that didn’t stop his hysterical piece from airing.
• Sebastian Jones gives us the lowdown on The Lobbying-Media Complex. A four-month investigation by The Nation has found:

  Since 2007 at least seventy-five registered lobbyists, public relations representatives and corporate officials--people paid by companies and trade groups to manage their public image and promote their financial and political interests--have appeared on MSNBC, Fox News, CNN, CNBC and Fox Business Network with no disclosure of the corporate interests that had paid them. Many have been regulars on more than one of the cable networks, turning in dozens--and in some cases hundreds--of appearances.  

  For lobbyists, PR firms and corporate officials, going on cable television is a chance to promote clients and their interests on the most widely cited source of news in the United States. These appearances also generate good will and access to major players inside the Democratic and Republican parties. For their part, the cable networks, eager to fill time and afraid of upsetting the political elite, have often looked the other way. At times, the networks have even disregarded their own written ethics guidelines.

• Architect Jason McClennan, CEO of the Cascadia Green Building Council, ponders The Righteous Small House: Challenging House Size and the Irresponsible American Dream.
• This is not an Onion item: Kristin Davis, the madam who supplied prostitutes for former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, is planning her own run for governor of New York as a Libertarian. And rap superstar 50 Cent is apparently supporting her. -- Steve Singiser
• Newt Gingrich has been touting the idea of what amounts to an act of war, sabotaging Iran’s oil infrastructure, for at least eight months. So you would think, by now, he would know something about it. He doesn’t seem to. In an interview, he says  "...if you simply blockade Iran’s flow of gasoline, you can bring the country to a halt in 60 to 90 days, since they only have one refinery." Iran has nine refineries, including one new one that came on line 11 months ago. These produce about 62% of the country’s daily gasoline needs.
• One thing the media can expect from a Palin Presidency: No more stinking press conferences.
• IOKIYAJL. During the Cheney-Bush years, Sen. Joe Lieberman said on at least four occasions that critics of the administration’s policies on terrorism were helping al-Qaeda and harming America. Now, in response to commentary by senior counterterrorism adviser John Brennan, Joe is saying that administration critics should not be viewed as "somehow giving aid and comfort to al-Qaeda." One thing Joe is consistent about: sticking up for Republicans.
• Gina Welch points out that at At Conference on Gays, No Gays, Naturally:

  down in little Lynchburg, VA, the Liberty Counsel is getting ready to fete true romance with a conference on the "consequences of same-sex attraction." That’s amore!

  Now, now. Order in the court, order in the court. Let’s give the agenda a chance. Maybe there’ll be a multiplicity of viewpoints on the issue. Laypeople are welcome, so let’s head on down. First up, an address by Alan Chambers, president of Exodus International, the group involved in the Uganda conference that led to a bill threatening to imprison and kill gays there. Hm. Maybe I’ll clean out my purse in the lobby and wait for the next panel.

• The Sunlight Foundation has a new report out on The Legacy of Billy Tauzin: The White House-PhRMA Deal. Marcy Wheeler has an analysis here.
• The original resolution proposed by Rep. Kerry Gibson in the Utah state legislature had called global warming a "well organized and ongoing effort to manipulate and incorporate ‘tricks’ related to global temperature data in order to produce a global warming outcome." Those pushing for action to ameliorate climate change would "ultimately lock billions of human beings into long-term poverty." But by the time the final version passed, the term "climate data conspiracy" and some other inflammatory language had been removed.  The call for an end to any action regulating carbon dioxide remained, pending an "independent investigation."
• Matt Yglesias explores The Military’s Reach.

  Defense industry advertising is critical to the finances of a lot of Beltway-focused publications about politics. Defense contractors are the biggest advertising on Metro. Defense contractors are leading sponsors of DC-area sports franchises and leading contributors to DC-area charities. Defense contractors donate to DC think tanks. Every social group of college-educated Washingtonians includes people who work directly or indirectly for the military or for defense contractors. Of course nobody says "I’m going to vote in favor of invading Iraq because I saw a Northrup Grumman ad at the Verizon Center." But all this spending does, I think, have an impact. To be a fan of large and growing defense budgets is, in the context of Washington DC, to be a respected pillar of the community. To be an advocate of reduced military spending is to be a hippie freak.

Yesterday, Dianne Feinstein and Patrick Leahy bravely bucked the scaremongering by Republicans and too many of their own Dems to strongly back the use of civilian trials for 9/11 suspects. The Intelligence and Judiciary chairs wrote to the president to "express full support for civilian trials for terrorists."

And they’re also trying to forestall any effort by congressional Republicans to compel trials in military commissions. "Congress should not tie the hands of our national security and law enforcement agencies, but should instead ensure they have the flexibility to use every means available," Feinstein and Leahy wrote. "Congress should be working with you in a shared mission to most effectively protect our national security and to ensure that just convictions, once obtained, will be sustained and upheld."

The president and his Attorney General, Eric Holder, need to heed the advice of these Senators. In an interview with WaPo today, Holder indicated he might be leaning toward giving up on civilian trials.

"At the end of the day, wherever this case is tried, in whatever forum, what we have to ensure is that it’s done as transparently as possible and with adherence to all the rules," Holder said. "If we do that, I’m not sure the location or even the forum is as important as what the world sees in that proceeding."

What the world should see is the vaunted system of American justice at work--that system that has already secured the convictions of hundreds of terrorists and the few convictions through military commissions have been relative failures, as Daphne Eviatar argued in a diary here yesterday.

[T]he federal courts are no bed of roses for terrorists. They have convicted many more terrorists than military commissions have. And following the only contested military commission trial since the start of the "war on terror," Osama bin Laden's driver, who the government claimed was a key player in the global jihadist's murderous efforts, was sentenced to only five and a half years in prison - just six months more than the time he'd already served....

Back then, the National Review's Andy McCarthy, the former prosecutor who now argues for military interrogation, trial and detention for all terrorism suspects, wrote a piece titled: "Disgraceful Hamdan Sentence Calls Military Commissions Into Question."

That was 2008.

Just last week, McCarthy wrote that "Like most Americans, I think it is a terrible idea to give alien enemy combatants civilian trials." Our usual procedures for handling criminal terrorism cases no longer need to be followed, because now we are at war, he says, so anything goes. Although the same critics making this argument today never pressed that position during the Bush administration, it's now become accepted wisdom among those eager both to discredit the Obama administration and to appear tough on terror that terrorism suspects belong nowhere near the civilian justice system.

It's an odd position for these critics to take, given the track record of the military commissions. Military commissions have convicted only three terrorists since they were created. Two of them have already been released from prison. The other didn't even present a defense at his trial.

What's more, in a military commission, conviction on charges like "conspiracy" and "material support for terrorism," the most common charges against suspects who haven't personally launched an attack, could be reversed on appeal, since those haven't traditionally been considered war crimes. Or, as in the Hamdan case, they might just draw a far lighter sentence. Even the administration's own lawyers have expressed doubts about the validity of such charges in military commissions. In federal court, such charges are routine - and frequently the way prosecutors win convictions.

Tom Malinowski, Washington director of Human Rights Watch, has more at Foreign Policy

As the U.S. Congress threatens to block funds for Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's (KSM's) civilian trial, critics of President Barack Obama's approach to prosecuting terrorism have a common refrain: KSM is a combatant, not a criminal. As Sen. John Barrasso recently put it, "These people are at war against the United States and our values. They deserve a military judge and jury."

But does KSM really "deserve" the honor of a military trial? That is a privilege normally reserved for defendants entitled to call themselves warriors....

It makes sense that a man who plotted the murder of innocent people from a refuge thousands of miles away would want to be seen as a soldier in a war. But why would politicians who claim to be tough on terrorism want to give him that status, as many Republicans do today? Why on earth do they think that facing justice in a civilian court, where the United States prosecutes murderers, rapists, drug dealers, pimps, and yes, terrorists (over 300 during George W. Bush's presidency), would be some sort of privilege?

This is the most destructive of political games--the deliberate undermining of the American system of justice to score political points over the administration in the effort to keep the "weak on terror" meme going. Civilian courts are more than capable of trying these cases. What's more, putting and keeping these cases in the civilian court system forces our intelligence and defense services to follow the rule of law--building a case that will hold up in the courts means no torture, no coercion, no forced confessions. No wonder the civilian courts are Cheney's biggest nightmare.

It seems that a group that is laughingly described as "more than 80 prominent conservative thinkers," is set to unveil the latest manifesto from the right, titled, "the Mount Vernon Statement."

A partial list of the "thinkers":

The big names attached to it include former Attorney General Ed Meese, Heritage Foundation President Edwin Feulner, Family Research Council head Tony Perkins, Media Research Center leader Brent Bozell, Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist and David Keene, head of the American Conservative Union, which is putting on CPAC, among others.

A veritable who's who of angry old white men.

In other words, the Republican Party.

The filibuster reform fight is getting more interesting. This morning, David wrote about the burgeoning effort among Senate Dems to prime the procedural pump to be ready at the beginning of the next Congress to change the filibuster rule, and the current Majority Leader, Harry Reid's opposition to doing that just now.

The way things have gone with this magical window of opportunity in the past -- at least, when it's been used successfully -- is that once the process is thrown wide open and Senators can see the writing on the wall, people begin looking for compromise. A successful invocation of this beginning-of-a-new-Congress procedure leaves the Senate staring into the abyss. The filibuster can be eliminated entirely, or the Senate can agree by simple majority vote to some alternative cloture procedure. First they agreed to adopt the basic cloture procedure (requiring a 2/3 vote at the time). Later, they agreed to lower that threshold to 3/5. The next time, it could perhaps be a proposal like that from Sens. Harkin and Shaheen that becomes the compromise. Or, or course, it could end up being something else. But if Senators know this day is coming and come to believe the necessary votes are there, they're going to want to have alternatives to the current Rule XXII available, and the ones that get the widest play before game day just might stand the best chance of becoming the new standard. So that's why the Harkin-Shaheen proposal matters, even if it can't pass now....

Come January, it's not likely that Harry Reid's personal opinion will be driving things. The vote count alone will set the pace. And if cloture reform is something you want to see happen, it'll be your job between now and then to make sure your Senators -- whomever they may be in January 2011 -- know that in no uncertain terms.

It would seem that Dick Durbin has all of that in mind. Greg Sargent:

Senator  Dick Durbin is now throwing his weight behind a new effort to reform the filibuster, a move that could give it a boost, given Durbin’s clout as a senior member of the Dem leadership.

Durbin spokesman Joe Shoemaker confirms to me that the Senator supports the new effort, which was unveiled yesterday by Senators Tom Harkin and Jeanne Shaheen.

The Harkin proposal would officially amend the process by which a filibuster is broken, allowing a four-step process that could eventually allow it to be broken by a majority vote. The first vote would require 60 votes to break the filibuster, followed by motions requiring 57, 54, and finally, 51 votes.

The key is that Durbin is apparently playing an active role in backing the Harkin effort. A senior leadership aide tells me Durbin is "in talks with a number of other Democratic senators regarding possible changes to Senate rules."

It's also possible that Durbin is using this to position himself as a real reformer in the potential leadership fight he'll have with Chuck Schumer if Harry Reid doesn't come back to Congress next January. Either way, Durbin's support for this reform is significant, making it just a little bit likelier that there will be filibuster reform in the next Congress.

Oh brother:

As a part of its ongoing effort to retain exclusive brand licensing rights to a word that's been a part of the English language since the early seventeenth century, Politico has ordered a British website called Tory Politico to stop using the word "politico," because -- who knows? Maybe you might accidentally end up at the latter site and become confused as to why your favorite Beltway press-release mill has suddenly become obsessed with Parliament and Gordon Brown and Torchwood or something?

Of course given the word's origin:

politician

1588, from politics (q.v.). Colloquial abbreviated form pol is attested from 1942. Alternate form politico (usually in a derogatory sense) is attested from 1630 ...

... you can understand why Politico would assume they own it.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/8/2010-2/11/2010. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

Defining the movement in this week's Daily Kos State of the Nation tracking poll is a tricky task. The GOP continues to give back its recent gains, with all the players on the red team either holding steady or losing ground. What was once a seven-point gap in net favorabilities between the Democratic Party and the GOP has doubled in recent weeks, and now stands at a fourteen-point split.

President Obama continues his post-SOTU recovery on the favorability issue, with his current +15 split (56/41) among his best showings in recent months. It has not, it is worth noting, translated to higher job approval scores in other polls. Remember that favorability numbers, which we use in the tracking poll, usually trend a few points higher than job approval. Indeed, the current Pollster averages mark an almost eleven-point difference between favorabilities (where the Pollster average stands at +11) and job approval (where the Pollster average stands at +0.6)

Despite declining numbers for the GOP and incrementally improving numbers for the President, there are also some indicators that should give Democrats pause, as well. Both Congressional leaders take a two-point dive this week, with Harry Reid continuing a sharp and unabated dive that began with his unfortunate "negro dialect" comment several weeks ago. It is also worth noting that there has been no tangible improvement on the voter intensity front. Just 52% of Democrats are either certain or likely to vote, which is what it has basically been since the start of the year. Also, Democrats continue to have just a one-point lead on our variation of the general election ballot, as well (39-38).

Judd Gregg has an idea for a bipartisan HCR deal, but given his history with the administration--accepting and then rejecting the Commerce Secretary post, then trashing the administration regularly on budget issues--is it one Dems should even consider?

In a letter to Obama released late Tuesday, Gregg welcomed the meeting as a chance for “constructive dialogue” and is promoting his own lower-cost approach focused on preventive care and guaranteed catastrophic coverage for all families.

His letter warns the president that the House- and Senate-passed health care bills can’t be the sole basis for the discussions. But in a series of interviews with POLITICO, Gregg has been open to specific deficit-reduction and cost-containment steps that could be taken to win Republicans’ support for health reform....

Gregg has yet to reduce his ideas to formal legislation but bundles them under the catchy title CPR: coverage, prevention and reform.

The centerpiece is his plan to begin reform by first guaranteeing access to a low-premium policy that protects against catastrophic costs but also expressly allows preventive benefits and disease management under the deductible. He would modify the existing Health Insurance Portability and Accessibility Act to allow employers greater freedom to reward workers who participate in wellness programs, such as giving up smoking or losing weight. And given his New Hampshire roots, he subscribes to a host of the so-called Dartmouth reforms to promote accountable care organizations and incentivize “shared decision making” between physicians and elderly patients about treatment options.

His approach is sure to face criticism for being too late and too small bore. But Gregg’s already shown a willingness to work with Democrats on a compromise related to the HIPAA changes he wants. Having a true catastrophic, major medical option for people being mandated to buy insurance fits his mode of “middle working out.”

“We can all agree that no American should lose their life savings or their home because of illness or injury and that the rising cost of health care severely burdens individuals, families and businesses,” Gregg wrote in his letter to Obama this week. “Report after report also confirms that health care costs are a systemic risk to the long-term fiscal health of our nation.”

The theory is that because he's retiring, he wants to burnish his legacy. The big question is whether any other Republican would be willing to help with his legacy when the orders from leadership are to obstruct. And, of course, if Democrats who have spent the last year sweating to make this effort meaningful would be willing to throw it out the window for such a scaled-down approach. The House already finds the scope and lack of affordability in the Senate bill unacceptable. How would this get through?

Accepting this proposal would basically be what Obama has ruled out, starting over from scratch. His "CPR" elements are already in the plan. What's missing, in this summary anyway, is access--how to make it affordable through Medicaid expansion or subsidies.