Since it has been a few days since the Polling and Political Wrap has crossed your eyes, it seemed like a good idea to do a brief review of some polling data that has come across since the middle of the week, so that you have some political numbers to peruse during the 48-hour Super Bowl pre-game show (what, it hasn't started yet?).

THE POLLS

CO-Sen: (Rasmussen Reports)
Jane Norton (R) 51, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 37
Tom Wiens (R) 45, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 40
Ken Buck (R) 45, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 41
Jane Norton (R) 45, Andrew Romanoff (D) 38
Tom Wiens (R) 42, Andrew Romanoff (D) 40
Ken Buck (R) 45, Andrew Romanoff (D) 41

CT-Gov: (Rasmussen Reports)
Ned Lamont (D) 40, Thomas Foley (R) 37
Ned Lamont (D) 41, Michael Fedele (R) 33
Thomas Foley (R) 37, Dan Malloy (D) 36
Dan Malloy (D) 36, Michael Fedele (R) 35

CT-Sen: (Rasmussen Reports)
CT Atty Gen. Richard Blumenthal (D) 54, Rob Simmons (R) 35
CT Atty Gen. Richard Blumenthal (D) 56, Linda McMahon (R) 36

IL-Sen: (Rasmussen Reports)
Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 46, IL Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40

KY-Sen: (Rasmussen Reports)
Rand Paul (R) 47, KY Atty Gen. Jack Conway (D) 39
Rand Paul (R) 48, KY Lt. Gov Dan Mongiardo (D) 37
KY Sec of State Trey Grayson (R) 44, KY Atty Gen. Jack Conway (D) 40
KY Sec of State Trey Grayson (R) 49, KY Lt. Gov Dan Mongiardo (D) 35

NV-Sen: (Rasmussen Reports)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 47, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 39
Sue Lowden (R) 45, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 39
Sharron Angle (R) 44, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 40
Lt. Gov Brian Krolicki (R) 44, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 41

THE ANALYSIS

Welcome to the latest incarnation of Ras-a-Palooza. The ridiculously prolific pollster goes into the field in several states, and get a few incredibly interesting conclusions.

Let's start in Colorado (where Ras, sadly, has so far left us wanting on results from that hot governor's race). This is the first poll I have seen in Colorado that seems to suggest that Bennett's primary opponent, former state house Speaker Andrew Romanoff, is actually more bankable in the general election than the incumbent. Of course, this is not the first time we have seen Ras out on an island, so take it for what it is worth.

Connecticut still continues to look very good for the Democrats, where Rasmussen even concedes a narrow lead for the Democrats in the competitive open-seat gubernatorial elections.

Illinois, meanwhile, is a bit of a strange one. Kirk's six point lead, given the national climate, seems only a little off-kilter, but one really has to wonder about the 54/45 Obama approval spread in this poll of his home state. A similarly mediocre Obama approval came out of that Kirk internal poll midweek that had him up double digits. Tom Jensen at PPP is, to put it mildly, skeptical of that internal poll.

Another "Rasmussen" first, at least in scope, comes from Kentucky. This is one of the first polls I have seen that shows a visible difference in viability between Democratic contenders Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo. This was especially true if Trey Grayson somehow survives the GOP primary (which, to be fair, is looking a bit more remote).

Finally, in Nevada, we see what has to be described (and that alone is a statement) as improving numbers for Senator Harry Reid. The widest lead is eight points, which is a step up for a guy that was down double digits earlier in the cycle. Even more intriguing: the guy that was supposed to be the Republican savior in the race, Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki, actually polls the worst of the Republicans. Perhaps his recent brush with indictment (which was tossed aside in December) has tainted him in spite of the favorable outcome of that matter.

Splitters!

In a bid to advance the tea party movement from holding rallies to holding office, the leaders of the anti-establishment groups announced a new political organization Friday that they say will “endorse, support and elect” conservatives across the country.

Mark Skoda, chairman of The Memphis TEA Party, made the announcement at a news conference in the middle of the National Tea Party Convention in Nashville. Though he said the group -- Ensuring Liberty Corporation and an affiliated political action committee -- is "distinct and separate" from other parts of the tea party movement, including convention organizer Tea Party Nation, the announcement was the closest thing so far to a national organizing strategy for the upcoming 2010 midterm elections.

The Ensuring Liberty Corporation^TM [insert hearty guffaws here] will support candidates who stand for "fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, less government, states' rights and national security" as well as the Republican National Committee platform.

The teabaggers call this platform the "First Principles," and are committed to voting for candidates who share their values, regardless of party. Unless, of course, they're talking about actually voting for candidates. And then it's principles schminciples.

Of the nearly two-dozen I spoke with, all of them praised Scott Brown's election to the Senate, even when it went against their own beliefs. "It was wonderful, wonderful that he won," says Debi Keatts, who works with a pro-life group in Danville, Virginia. When asked about Brown's pro-choice stance, she shrugs, "We had to bite a bitter pill but it was worth it if it helps stops this unilateral liberal agenda."

Stay posted for news of the Teabagging People's Front...

According to Swing State Project, Congresswoman Diane Watson in my home district of CA-33 will not seek re-election:

Just left a CA delegation meeting with Cong. Diane Watson was quietly telling Members that she will not be running for re-election.

Word is that Former CA Assembly Speaker Karen Bass will immediately enter the race following Watson's announcement.  Further proof of this plan --- Bass is scheduled to be in DC next week for a series of meet and greet events with potential financial supporters.

While this will be included in the number of Democratic retirements that so many pundits like to use as evidence of which Party is worse off in November, this isn't a major loss or a major surprise. First, the district is in the urban center of Los Angeles and is ridiculously Democratic. Second, Rep. Watson is currently 76 years old, so her retirement was a question of when, not if. Third, former Speaker of the California State Assembly Karen Bass will be a reliably progressive vote in Congress.

What's coming up on Sunday Kos ....

• With regard to Ben McGrath's recent New Yorker article The Movement, Laura Clawson will note that there are journalistic decisions to explain your subjects on their own terms, and then there's repeating their fabrications as truth. What's going on in this article and how did the New Yorker's famed fact-checkers let one thing in particular slip by?
• Angry Mouse will explain why feminists are to blame for everything. No, really.
• DarkSyde will follow the surprising connections between primitive rockets and the technology at the heart of modern civilization in "Smoke and Guns."
• exmearden will offer thoughts on branding, bridges, and the old New Deal. It's about how structure and image coalesce to form a lasting legacy, and jobs, jobs, jobs.
• In an interview with Her Majesty Queen Noor of Jordan, Plutonium Page will explore the Global Zero group, its summit this past week, and the growing worldwide support for the elimination of nuclear weapons.
• Dante Atkins will explore why Republicans are so appalled at their own success.

(There's a great deal of mystery about how polling is conducted, so I asked Del Ali, president of Research 2000, to discuss the mechanics of the polling process. Hopefully, this is not just educational, but helps squash some of the more ridiculous assertions made by critics of our commissioned polling -- kos)

HOW A POLL IS CONDUCTED  
By Del Ali, Research 2000

So, how is a poll conducted? We will go over step by step precisely how R2K conducts a poll:

1) Questionnaire or survey instrument: This is the list of questions that will be asked in the poll.

First of all, it is vital to ask the question as fairly and objectively as possible. The exact wording of the questions and their order in the questionnaire are obviously important, as this can be the most controversial part of any poll. To provide full transparency, we publish the exact questions we ask, in the order asked.

In addition, R2K and our clients make a point of releasing the full results of every poll conducted, instead of publishing just the positive results and hiding less favorable numbers. I am critical of candidate polls--for both Democrats and Republican--that only release the horserace results, but refuse to release either the rest of the results, or even the order in which the questions were asked.

What must be emphasized is that it is important to be objective and have the facts straight when asking any issue question. Adjectives cannot be used in asking such questions, period. A question about the death penalty, for example, needs to be asked fairly and straightforwardly, with no embellishment: "Do you favor or oppose the death penalty?"

2) Finding the respondents: After our survey instrument is ready to commence, we then CATI  the survey. This means simply that we put this into our Computer-Assisted-Telephone-Interview system.

Those interviewed are selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers, whether this is a national poll, statewide, congressional district, etc. A cross-section of exchanges are utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the area being polled. People often note that they've never been polled. Well, the first law of polling is that every single individual in a designated population must have an equal chance of being selected as part of the polling sample. In other words, if one was conducting a poll among likely voters in the United States, the validity of the poll comes into question unless every single adult 18 years or older has an equal chance of being called randomly.

3) Asking the questions: First we screen respondents depending on the criteria the client requires. So if we need to zone in on likely voters, we screen for likely voters (more on how we do that below). Then we ask three demographic questions. The first is the gender of the respondent. The second is political party identification, which is simply, "Politically, do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or of another party?" (Keep in mind that there are many states in our nation that do not have party registration.) The third question we ask is the age of the respondent.

Then we go directly to our name recognition question(s). This is a two-part question in which we ask the respondent over the telephone if they recognize a name being polled, say, "Markos Moulitsas".

If they say do not recognize Markos, we go on to the next name on the list. If they do recognize Markos, we than ask the respondent if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. If they respond they have no opinion of him or if they respond favorable or unfavorable, we either move on to the next name or we measure the intensity of that answer by asking the respondent if that is very favorable or very unfavorable.

After we go through all the names on the list, we then go to the horserace question. That is simply asked: "If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama , the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?" After the horse race question, we then move on to other issues, such as asking job approval of the President, the Democrats in Congress, the Republican in Congress, or any of the national leadership figures commonly polled.  

If we were conducting a statewide poll, we could do job approvals among the Governor, both U.S. Senators and the Legislature of the state. After this, we could ask several issue questions that pertain to both state and national issues.

Finally we ask additional demographic questions. Keep in mind we already asked three of them -- sex, party affiliation, and age. We now ask the rest, such as geography and race.

4) Determining likely voters: How do pollsters define "likely voter" and how are they selected?

This is a major source of controversy when it comes to the accuracy of polls. We will simply say this: we use several screeners in determining how the likely voter is selected. We already shared one of the most important screeners -- party identification. While we will not share the actual wording of our screeners because they are proprietary and they are what make us successful, we will share two examples of those screeners:

SCREENER: Which of the following best describes what you will do next Tuesday when it comes to the November election:  

I will definitely vote-PROCEED
I am pretty certain I will vote-PROCEED
I am not sure if I will vote-TERMNATE
I will not vote-TERMINATE
I am not sure-TERMINATE

SCREENER: How often do you vote when there is a statewide election?  

I vote always-PROCEED
I vote almost always or most of the time-PROCEED
I vote some of the time-TERMNATE
I rarely vote-TERMINATE
I don't vote-TERMINATE

5) Additional information on poll of Republicans. We need to address a few items pertaining to the recent national poll we just completed for the Daily Kos among 2,000-plus self-identified Republicans nationally.

We started with a screener that was, quite simply, "Politically, do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or of another party?" In other words, if they stated they were a Democrat, an Independent, something else or told us to go to hell, they were not part of this 2,000+ sample. It looked like this:

Politically, do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or of another party?

    DEM                 1-TERMINATE  
    REP                 2-PROCEED            
    IND                 3-TERMINATE  
    OTHER               4-TERMINATE
    DK                  5-TERMINATE

After these self-identified Republicans were selected, we then asked them: "In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?" As was reported, 8% of this sample stated that they are not likely to vote, 5% stated they definitely will not vote and 4% were not sure if they would vote, while 83% stated that they would definitely vote or vote.

The purpose of the poll, as clearly stated, was to interview self-identified Republicans on various issues. Each of the questions asked on the poll have been released via Daily Kos, as well as the order in which the questions were asked and the demographic information collected. These were straightforward and objective "favor or oppose" or "yes/no" questions, such as "Do you favor or oppose the death penalty?" and "Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?"

Margin of Error

The most common complaint we hear from the public is: “Nobody has ever polled me.” For millions of people, that will be true throughout their lives. However, these individuals, while they may never be interviewed by R2K or any other firm, have an equal chance of being selected as the lucky respondent who ends up qualifying to participate in the poll. The beauty of polling is that one does not have to contact and interview every single likely voter in the United States to see where the 2008 Presidential election stands a week before the election. In fact, we only have to interview 400 likely voters to get an accurate refection of where the race stands. However, if we want to learn where the race stands among the various subgroups within the poll (for example, 18-29 year olds or Latinos), a larger overall sample is recommended because the sub-group of the 18-29 year old and Latino voter in a 400-voter sample would be very low. So, the higher the overall sample, and the higher the subgroup overall numbers, the lower the margin of error. The MOE is as follows for each sample size:

Using the MOE of 5% in our 400 sample size, this means if Barack Obama yielded 50% as his level of support in the poll, his actual level of support will not be higher than 55% or lower than 45% if every single likely voter in the nation had actually been interviewed. That 95% confidence level simply means that we are 95% certain that this principle is true.

When NPR went looking for someone to speak out in favor of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," thy could not have found a better representative of thinking on that side of the aisle than Duncan Hunter.  Wait a sec... did I say thinking because that clearly not a problem that afflicts Congressman Hunter.

Duncan Hunter: the military is not civilian life. In think the folks that have been in the military... that have been in these very close situations with each other, there has to be a special bond there. But that bond is broken if you open up the military to transgenders to hermaphrodites to gays and lesbians.

NPR: Trangenders and hermaphrodites?

Duncan Hunter: Yeah, that's gonna be... uh, uh, uh... part of this whole thing. It's not just gays and lesbians. It's the whole gay lesbian transgender bisexual community. If you're going to let anybody in no matter what sexual preference that they have, that means the military's going to let everybody in.

I can't tell what's stranger: that Duncan Hunter is in a rash about hermaphrodites invading the US military, or that he thinks being a hermaphrodite is a sexual preference.

Of course, that's not the end of the brilliance he displays in this interview.

Duncan Hunter: It would make everyone uneasy.  How you go into combat... the bathroom situation, the shower situation... the very mundane details, the fact that we have men and women separated, you know, because we don't want to have that sexual distraction. That exists for the homosexual aspect of things too.

NPR: But Congressman Hunter, wouldn't you agree there are gays and lesbians serving in the military right now? They just are not open about their orientation, so the problems that you raise would presumably be problems already. They're in the barracks already. They're in the showers.

Duncan Hunter: But they're not open about it. It's like you said. It's like if you go to work for NPR, you probably don't say on day one 'Hey I want everyone to know that I'm gay.' You probably don't care one way or the other as long as they get their particular job done. That's why don't ask don't tell works.

And I'm sure no one at NPR ever puts a picture of their spouse in their cubicle, or talks about their families. Honestly, getting Hunter to do the "Nay" negates the need for someone to do the "Aye."

Ultimately Rep. Hunter falls back on the demand that there be a poll of some portion of the military, which will prove that they don't like gays.  Because, of course, that's exactly how civil rights works -- you only get them if the majority says you can have them.

Now that Operation Rescue has succeeded in its years-long mission to shut down Dr. George Tiller's clinic, it is launching a new campaign:

Operation Rescue's Abortion Whistleblowers Campaign, which is offering a $10,000 reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of abortionists who are breaking the law, is in full swing and taking to the radio waves, the Internet, and direct mail to advertize the project.

...

"We are also looking into other violations that directly endanger the lives of women, including sex crimes, the concealment of child sex abuse, unlicensed workers, improper handling of controlled substances, chemical impairment, illegal abortions, falsification of medical records, and other abuses," said [Operation Rescue President Troy] Newman.

We saw how this strategy played out in Kansas, with tragic consequences. Operation Rescue collects "evidence" of wrongdoing by abortion providers. It then lobbies law enforcement to investigate the "evidence." In the case of Dr. Tiller, the organization found its ally in Phill Kline, now under investigation for ethics violations, who spent years investigating and intimidating Dr. Tiller and his clinic. Dr. Tiller was tried and acquitted of all charges, but that didn't stop Operation Rescue from continuing to claim that Dr. Tiller had performed illegal abortions.

When the law fails to hold abortion providers accountable for performing a legal medical procedure, Operation Rescue supplies information to an extremist who appears willing to take the law into his own hands, as Scott Roeder did.

In his murder trial, Dr. Tiller's assassin, Scott Roeder, claimed that his decision to murder Dr. Tiller was, in part, a result of the unsuccessful prosecution of Dr. Tiller.

Roeder testified he was "very frustrated" by Tiller's acquittal, saying it "seemed like that was the last attempt by the state of Kansas to find if there was anything at all going on illegally in George Tiller's clinic."

...

Roeder said that through the anti-abortion group Operation Rescue he learned that Tiller took measures to protect himself -- traveling in an armored car, using a security escort, wearing a bulletproof vest and living in a gated community.

But of course, when the next vigilante terrorist takes the law into his own hands, Operation Rescue will surely claim shock that its extremism could lead to tragedy.

Keep it classy, "lifers."

• Both houses of Congress have re-introduced the International Violence Against Women Act (IVAWA).

  IVAWA will support innovative programs that challenge public attitudes and cultural practices that perpetuate and condone violence against women and girls...training for police and judicial officials on countering violence against women and respecting the rights of victims...long-term prevention efforts such as increasing women’s economic security, expanding access to jobs and education, and engaging men to change behaviors and attitudes.

  And believe it or not, it has bipartisan support. For now.

• Just in time for Valentine's Day, Miley Cyrus's 9-year-old sister is launching a line of lingerie for children.
• Sarah Palin thinks calling people retarded is wrong, unless, of course, she's the one doing it. Sure, it's a case of Sarah versus Levi, but really, who has more credibility?
• Michele Bachmann is still crazy.
• Iowa Republicans have introduced legislation to exclude LGBT students from the 2007 Iowa Safe Schools Law that protects students from school bullies. Won't someone please think of the children straight children?

  Meanwhile, Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), plans to introduce a federal safe schools bill that would include LGBT students. The bill already has 60 co-sponsors and support from the White House. Take that, Iowa Republicans.

• The New York Times helps moms learn how to speak to their nannies.
• Vanity Fair's "New Hollywood" reminds us, once again, that beautiful means white, anorexic, and airbrushed.
• You have not seen the last of Demon Sheep--or something even more horrendous. --Dante Atkins
• This is weird: The world we know may be nothing other than a giant hologram. The Matrix may have us yet. --Dante Atkins
• The California Republican Party is in shambles after the Chairman was accused of severely beating a "romantic partner" and then intimidating said partner into keeping quiet. In all fairness, I think he was just trying to preserve Bill O'Reilly's longed-for white Christian male power structure. --Dante Atkins
• The Hunger in America 2010 study, commissioned by Feeding America, reports that there has been a 46% increase in the number of Americans who receive food from food banks since the last report was released in 2006. That's more than 37 million, or 1 in 8 Americans.

  This news follows on the heels of the latest government enrollment figures on food stamp recipients for January - over 37 million. --exmearden

• Meanwhile, Goldman top execs are only getting $9 million in stock bonuses this year. --exmearden

Below the fold.

Ahem... speaker Steven Millroy at the Tea Party convention:

President Obama is not a U.S. socialist. He's an international socialist. He envisions one world government. That's what his whole plan is.

Speaker and former House member Tom Tancredo, also at the convention:

[America] put a committed socialist ideologue in the White House ... Barack Hussein Obama.

Our Daily Kos poll of self-identified Republicans:

Do you think Barack Obama is a socialist?

Yes 63
No 21
Not Sure 16

Also speaking at the convention, longtime crazy person Joseph Farah:

WorldNetDaily Editor-in-Chief Joseph Farah gave a 40-minute dinner speech to the National Tea Party Convention and spent at least 10 minutes of it on jokes and meandering observations about the citizenship of President Barack Obama. [...] Then Farah shared his ambition to make sure that "signs saying 'Where's the Birth Certificate'" appear at every Obama campaign stop in 2012.

From our Daily Kos poll:

Do you believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, or not?

Yes 42
No 36
Not Sure 22

Cue another round of Bill O'Reilly and Karl Rove wimpering about how unfair and outrageous it is to say that Republicans believe such kooky things, right? Liberal fraud! Unfair! Death Pa-- I mean, Daily Kos is mean!

As Americans, we make our own destiny.  We forge our own path.  And I am confident that if we come together and put aside the politics that keeps holding us back, we can do that again.  We can rebuild this economy on a new, stronger foundation that leads to more jobs and greater prosperity.
 
I believe a key part of that foundation is America’s small businesses – the places where most new jobs begin.

These companies represent the essence of the American spirit – the promise that anyone can succeed in this country if you have a good idea and the determination to see it through.  And every once in awhile, these ideas don’t just lead to a new business and new jobs, but a new American product that forever changes the world.  After all, Hewlett Packard began in a garage.  Google began as a simple research project. 

Help is on the way for America's small businesses, President Obama told listeners this morning in his weekly address, in the form of  "more access to credit, more incentives to hire, and more opportunities to grow and sell products all over the world." In a set of remarks sure to warm the heart of Main Street businesses anywhere, the President held up the entrepreneurial American spirit as the soul of the nation; more specifically, he discussed his specific proposals for encouraging small business growth in the current challenging economic climate:

• $30 billion will move from TARP funds targeting Wall Street to a Small Business Lending Fund for community banks;
• Fee waivers, increased guarantees and expanded SBA-backed loans for small business;
• Tax credits for new job creation and wage raises;
• Identify innovative businesses and offer targeted financing;
• Help small businesses with refinancing of mortgages.

Many of these proposals, the President said, will be presented to Congress next week, and he urged quick and decisive action … with a dollop of typically understated presidential warning:

I urge members of both parties:  do not oppose good ideas just because it’s good politics to do so.  The proposals I’ve outlined are not Democratic or Republican; liberal or conservative.  They are pro-business, they are pro-growth, and they are pro-job.

The full transcript can be found at the White House website and beneath the fold.

Not that there was ever any doubt this was going to happen, but as expected Michael Mann was exonerated in the very investigation the fossil fuel industry apologists demanded:

"Three of the four allegations have been dismissed completely," [Mann] wrote. "Even though no evidence to substantiate the fourth allegation was found, the University administrators thought it best to convene a separate committee of distinguished scientists to resolve any remaining questions about academic procedures. This is very much the vindication I expected since I am confident I have done nothing wrong."

Maybe we could now investigate the motives of over paid shills like Tom Borrelli. In the meantime, how long before some wingnut starts whining that it was whitewashed or downplays it ...

• Several articles have reported on 'new pictures of Pluto' which aren't really that new, are interesting if you haven't seen them, and won't hold a candle to the images NASA's New Horizons should be able to provide of the distant dwarf planet in a few short years.
• Haha! From a prolific female science blogger at Seed:

  I live with five males, ranging from 39 to 4. ... I try gamely to fit in, but find myself ... inadequately equipped for things like appreciating how cool it is to write in the snow with your penis.

   

• One of the landmark events in evolution, the rise of complex eukaryotic cells like the ones in our bodies, may have occurred much earlier in earth's natural history than once thought.
• The Space Shuttle may have turned out in hindsight to have irreducible inherent drawbacks, but I make the case here that the actual performance characteristics are one hell of a tribute to the designers. Update: Speaking of which, the opening kick off in the Superbowl tomorrow will be decided with a space coin. HT Jwin in comments.

Saturday round-up, and if you're in DC, stay safe and dig out when the blizzard's over. Don't try in the middle. This weather tip is brought to you by the state of Connecticut.

Gail Collins:

Washington was immobilized by snow on Friday. This is highly unusual. Normally, Washington is immobilized by senators.

Dana Milbank:

I miss John McCain.

I miss the McCain I sat with on a flight from San Diego to Phoenix back in 1999, when he defended his oft-ridiculed belief that campaign finance was the most important issue in America: because the corrupting influence of money in politics was preventing all other issues -- taxes, abortion, you name it -- from being solved.

"Until I draw my last breath, I will fight for it," he liked to say back then.

A couple of weeks ago, the Supreme Court issued a ruling that gutted the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance legislation, essentially destroying the cause that had been so dear to McCain.

His response: Whatever.

God forbid you should admit to yourself and the public you write for that he was always a genuine war hero but a phony politician (not just since the nomination), fighting for things that made him look good when it didn't matter. But then again, you're his base.

Charles Blow:

Since the State of the Union address, the president has been bounding about, displaying a new sense of vigor and confidence and a fighter’s spirit. He almost looks like the president people thought that he would be — a paladin, not a pacifist.

Why? Simple. Doing it Rahm's way didn't work, so now he's doing it his way.

Bob Herbert:

We don’t hear a lot that is serious about the sorry state of the nation’s infrastructure or the trade policies that crippled so many American industries or our inability (or unwillingness) to compete effectively with China when it comes to the new world of energy for the 21st century or our abject failure to provide a quality public education for the next generation of American workers, scientists, artists and entrepreneurs.

WaPo:

The 600 delegates at the National Tea Party Convention feel taxed to death, ignored by their elected representatives and the media, and appalled at the federal government's spending -- and there are millions of Americans just like them. Their anger has helped claim some political scalps, and they vow to "take back America." What is unclear to them, and to the political establishment watching warily, is how they might do this.

There are millions more appalled at the tea party's open racism and ignorance, even while being sympathetic to the idea that the government is dysfunctional (thank you, Senate.) Tom Tancredo? Sarah Palin? Hey, I know! Let's ask Joe Lieberman what he thinks (on record)! Where's Dana Milbank?

Gerard Alexander:

Why are liberals so condescending?...

But, if conservative leaders are crass manipulators, then the rank-and-file Americans who support them must be manipulated at best, or stupid at worst. This is the second variety of liberal condescension, exemplified in Thomas Frank's best-selling 2004 book, "What's the Matter With Kansas?" Frank argued that working-class voters were so distracted by issues such as abortion that they were induced into voting against their own economic interests. Then-Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, later chairman of the Democratic National Committee, echoed that theme in his 2004 presidential run, when he said Republicans had succeeded in getting Southern whites to focus on "guns, God and gays" instead of economic redistribution.

NY Times: Here's your uber tea party populist railing at the elite from the comforts of her living room on behalf of "the people":

Without leaving home, Sarah Palin will be able to reach much of her political base, courtesy of a soon-to-be-built television studio in her living room paid for by her newest media patron, Fox News. From her house in Wasilla, Alaska, Ms. Palin also sends missives to 1.3 million Facebook "fans," writes newspaper columns, Tweets and signs copies of her book for donors.

Hey, Dana were you also a Palinite?

On Thursday, the progressive VoteVets organization launched a $2 million ad campaign in seven states and District of Columbia focused on support for "a comprehensive energy bill that will cut our dependence on oil, and calling out those who are putting contributions from oil interests above America's interest." The ads use local veterans to press the organization's point of view in Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, South Dakota and Wyoming.

VoteVets began four years ago with the express purpose of putting Iraq and Afghanistan veterans critical of U.S. defense policy into Congress. Beginning in 2006, it has endorsed, contributed money to or run advertising favoring more than a dozen candidates, including several who won their elections, such as Patrick Murphy, Joe Sestak, Tim Walz, and Chris Carney. A little more than two years ago, the group started VetVoice, a blog for veterans of the two ongoing wars and their families, friends and supporters.

Here is the ad for Kentucky.

The campaign was launched days after the oil industry revealed that it spent $154 million lobbying Congress in 2009-much of it in opposition to comprehensive energy legislation.

"The fight to get off Middle East oil is a matter of life and death for those of us who serve this country," said Jon Soltz, Iraq War Veteran and Chairman of VoteVets.org.  "Every day Congress delays action is another day they are siding with oil companies and against our veterans," continued Soltz.

The ads use the so-called "Christmas Bomber," Umar Abdulmutallab, as a reminder that terrorists continue to target America, and that every day we continue our dependence on Middle East Oil, we continue to send money to nations with ties to terror. Yet many in Congress seem more interested in taking oil money from companies that do business in countries with ties to terror than they are in support a bipartisan effort to cut our dependence on oil and reduce pollution.

All the ads can be viewed here.

This evening's performance of Diary Rescue was made possible by the generosity of such Rescue Rangers as vcmvo2, grog, srkp23, Alfonso Nevarez, YatPundit, your local organic farm, Quisp Cereal^TM and allegedly dadanation. For the record, dadanation claims to have also been the editor.

The rescued Diaries

• Where else but here at Teh Orange can you find an essay about Three Philosophers, Three Powers: A Basis for A United World? Writers like Troubadour make it happen and enlighten us in the process. (grog)
• FrankCornish brings us up-to-date on events in Iran: Collision Course. (vcmvo2)
• Join blklikeme in a thought-provoking piece of life in moon. (vcmvo2)
• Sarahkatheryn discusses the electoral importance of youth outreach in Oregon Special Kills Mass in Youth Turnout. (srkp23)
• Gorette observes a disturbing pattern in the national media's narrative regarding the Deficit, like Iraq WMDs, GOP/media fearmonger. (Alfonso Nevarez)
• Like the President in a room full of House Republicans, Amit Mistry disposes of GOP Health Care Ideas via RedState.com. (Alfonso Nevarez)
• The People Speak Out in Favor of Stronger Smog Standards, and the Obama Administration responds, according to Bruce Nilles. (Alfonso Nevarez)
• The Media Consortium covers a lot of ground with Weekly Mulch: What's Missing from the New Clean Energy Agenda? (Alfonso Nevarez)
• DaNang65 offers up a fantastic tale of domestic duty-free shopping in A Run for the Border. (YatPundit)
• The title of the diary from National Gay and Lesbian Task Force says it all: Task Force Executive Director Rea Carey presents State of the Movement address. Simply one exquisite manifesto. (dadanation)

The usual Extras

jotter brings us High Impact Diaries: February 4, 2010.

asimbagirl has tonight's Top Comments: Held Hostage by the Repair Appointment.

The obligatory Closing

Please use this as an Open Thread as well as your chance to promote your favorite diaries of the day. Respectful engagement is most welcome here. Please keep in mind that each Diary Rescue's daily purview extends from 3pm PST yesterday to 3pm PST today. Shamelessly self-promote or pimp for a friend in this Open Thread!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/1/2010-2/4/2010. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

When the tracking poll was released last Friday, it was necessary to add a caveat that most of the surveys were completed before the President's State of the Union Address. After all, the poll is conducted from Monday through Thursday, and so somewhere between 60-75% of the surveys were already in the books before the President stood before the joint session.

Therefore, any "bounce" would have been hard to divine last week.

This week, however, we see the effects of the news cycles after the State Of The Union Address. As most expected, the movement is fairly modest. The Democrats (with the notable exception of Harry Reid) pick up a point or two, while the Republicans all dip a point or two.

A complete reversal of fortune it is not. But, with the prevailing political winds in your face, any week where the bleeding gets staunched has to be classified as a good one.

The most notable statistic that Democrats will like in this week's tracking poll is a noticeable move on our variation of the generic ballot test. After a multi-week dive, the Democrats pick up three points this week, and reclaim the most infinitesimal of leads on the ballot:

The most notable statistic that Democrats will not like is the basic absence of movement on the voter intensity question. Last week, the spread for Democrats on the voter intensity question was 52/46 (in other words, 52% either certain or likely to vote, while 46% either unlikely to vote or certain not to vote). This week, the spread for Democrats on the voter intensity question was 52/43.

People might feel incrementally better about Democrats this week than they did last week. But, as of yet, there seems to be a pretty big disconnect between relative satisfaction and active inspiration. Democrats, at least in sufficient numbers, are not feeling the absolute need to vote. Until they do, Democratic officeholders are bound to remain pretty apprehensive about the electoral road map for 2010.