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January 05, 2009

What are they smoking?

Leon Panetta is Obama's choice for DCI? Call me old fashioned, but a person leading the Central Intelligence Agency should have some intelligence background, even a little, no? I can think of a good 10 people who should have gotten the nomination and been confirmed long before Panetta's name was even an afterthought. Especially after the Bush-Cheney years of off-book operations. I want someone in there who is going to ask the right questions and has a good grasp on intelligence issues.

The 2008 Weblog Awards - Vote for Us!

Wafinalist2008200x130fj2 Hey all, at-Largely has been nominated in the category of Best Mid-size Blog in the 2008 Weblog Awards.

If you want to vote for us (and I hope you do) then use the button to the top-right in the middle column, or click here. Thanks for your support:)

John Bolton continues to have no clue but plenty of propaganda...

John Bolton, who likes to fashion himself an expert on Middle East affairs, illustrated quite the opposite during his tenure as US Ambassador to the United Nations. Despite having the rest of the world laughing at us, and despite being wrong on every thing he ever said with regard to the Middle East (bomb, bomb, bomb Iran), he still get his opinions printed.

Here is his rather (paid for?) odd description of the Gaza conflict:

War in the Gaza Strip demonstrates yet again that the current governance paradigm for the Palestinian people has failed. Terrorists financed and supplied by Iran control Gaza; the Palestinian Authority is broken, probably irretrievably; and economic development is stalled in Gaza and the West Bank. Palestinians are suffering the consequences of regional power struggles played out through them as surrogates.

Yes, Hamas is a terrorist group. And yes, we all have problems with their rise to  power in legitimate government. But did they just suddenly appear and claim seats in government or was there a cause?

What the above Bolton garbage demonstrates is that the Bush administration continues to attempt a re-write of history and to save a legacy that has already long been damned as the worst foreign policy set of blunders ever.

Let's recall why Hamas came to power as part of the legitimate government. You might remember that Bush's foreign policy was to recreate American democracy in the Middle East. Despite the reality and history of the region, Bush and his experts were going to bring democracy to a region that did not ask for it and did not want it. We, in America see democracy as the obvious choice of governance.
But our way of life is vastly different.

No matter, Bush and the cabal abandoned the Palestine people to the corrupt PLO leaders and cut funding. Hamas, on the other hand,  spent its time winning supporters by actually feeding the poor, helping the Palestinians, and doing what no terrorist organization should be given the power to do: convince a nation to elect them and in large numbers. Still, the Bush administration did not really bother to care or notice as Hamas was building its support. Why would Bush care, none of his corporate backers had contracts there. And you can likely imagine their surprise at what came next, because "no one could have imagined" happened, despite what the Bush administration claims. Hamas swept into legitimate governance, while Condi, Bush and the rest of the gang looked confused.

So, leaving another ground zero as part of his legacy, how did Bush respond when his administration's abandonment of the Palestine people resulting in the democratic election of Hamas to government? Did he decide to rethink his foolish and dangerous policies?

No.

Did he decide to perhaps counter Hamas with a humanitarian approach that might wing supports in Palestine to the Western position?

Nope.

Bush did what he has always done. He buried his head in the sand and declared that he will cut humanitarian support to the Palestinian people as punishment for their expression of democracy during their elections. How dare they choose something we don't like? The reality is, Palestinians did not have much of a choice, since the only people offering them any help happened to be terrorists. America was far too busy with an illegal war in Iraq - yet another place where democracy has done wonders.

Moreover, Bush moved to try to overthrow Hamas, while all the time publicly continuing to proclaim a vision of democracy in the Middle East. So much for US credibility.

Mr. Bolton was a champion of this idiocy at every step of the way and he emerges now to proclaim that the Palestian governance paradigm has failed.

Which paradigm would that be Mr. Bolton? The one called democracy that you and the Bush administration did so much lip service to, but no actual overtures toward? Or perhaps the reason that Hamas came to power in the first place was your crazed version of reality in which you abandon a suffering people and call it democracy? Or perhaps the failure comes from the US position on forcing its will through coups and other empire-building/corporate-driven policies by any means necessary? The people of Palestine are suffering because you, Mr. Bolton, and others like you have long demanded that our country show off its military muscle and curb its humanitarian activities. First with Iraq, then Iran, and so forth.

Bolton then goes on to play propagandist for several more paragraphs with total amnesia of his own role in all of this.  But he then asks the following question:

Given this landscape, we should ask why we still advocate the "two-state solution," with Israel and "Palestine" living side by side in peace, as the mantra goes. We are obviously not progressing, and are probably going backward. We continue poring over the Middle East "road map" because that is all we have, faute de mieux, as they say in Foggy Bottom.

Sorry? I misunderstood him I think. Who is generalized "we"  advocating a two-state solution? If I recall correctly, the "we" is non other than Bolton and Bush who continue to push the same policies, but are now publicly blackmailing the Palestinian people into doing our bidding. The above comment by him reads to me as a threat. It is as though he is saying "because of this" we will have to do "something" to you for the election that brought Hamas into office. Does anyone else read it that way?

More importantly, do we have the right to advocate anything relating to governance in a country that is not our own? Albert Einstein defined insanity as: "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

We have done this game in nearly every country in Central America (Contras ring a bell?), in South America (Pinochet ring a bell?), and in the Middle East (Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, etc.).

Yet the same people who have always advocated for this insanity continue to advocate for more. Mr. Bolton has no business expressing his opinion until he admits tot his own role in the current Middle East crisis. Anyone giving him space to write his propaganda, should at the very least either write a factual analysis of it and run both at the same time, or at least allow a reality-based human to issue a response.

But to simply run his rhetoric because the Bush administration gave him more credibility than he is worth, is total idiocy. Fox News gives him a platform. Let him continue there, along with the rest of the discredited, dishonest, and even criminal cast of the Bush years.

US Inaugurates New Baghdad Embassy

Posted By Cernig

The new US embassy in Iraq is a fitting symbol of Dubya's legacy. It's a $700 million white elephant built with corruption, graft and dodgy construction practises. Heavily fortified to show "how much Iraq has changed" (TM), it's ten times larger than any other American embassy in the world and six times larger than the UN complex in New York - fitting the lack of attention Bush aid to the rest of the world throughout the last eight years. It will persist as a massive reminder of an illegal invasion and occupation, even once that occupation is relabelled as a training mission.

Explaining the opening of such a large embassy three years before the U.S. must finish withdrawing its 146,000 troops from Iraq, Crocker told The Associated Press that it is vital for the U.S. to remain involved in nonmilitary ways.

"I think we have seen a tremendous amount of progress," Crocker said before the ceremony, "but the development of this new Iraq is going to be a very long time in the making, and we need to be engaged here."

And to add Iraqi insult to injury, prime minister Maliki couldn't be at the official opening - he was in Iran with his real friends

January 04, 2009

Israelis, like Americans, disagree with their own government's policies

Israeli protesters against the Gaza war.

Gaza

January 03, 2009

Russia - Ukraine Gas Dispute: Follow The Money

Posted By Cernig

As Ukraine warns that its dispute with Russia over gas pricing may affect Europe's energy supplies, the prevailing narrative in the US and UK media is of Russian "energy imperialism" since 2006 as a serious threat to both Ukraine and Europe. But the tale is far more complex and nuanced. I recommend two excellent articles today. The first from our friend Jerome Guillet at The Oil Drum:

The reality is that the Soviet gas industry was born in Ukraine in the 1930s, and the infrastructure was built from there and Ukraine is still a central part of the gas pipeline network even as the focus of activity moved to Western Siberia. Splitting the Soviet Union along Republic borders made for an often unworkable allocation of physical assets, and nowhere was this more true than for gas. The consequence is that vital assets for Gazprom are located in Ukraine and thus no longer under its direct control.

The ties between the industry in the two countries are thus massive, impossible to unwind, and highly constraining. Effectively, as soon as there is a conflict between the two countries, the temptation to use the "gas weapon" (ie to hurt the other by, in the case of Russia, withholding gas or, in the case of Ukraine, withholding export infrastructure) is large - and it has happened repeatedly, until, each time, cooler heads prevail.

So you could go back and look into Ukrainian and Russian papers from any date over the past 17 years and find that they have articles about unpaid Ukrainian debts for gas (which, since 1992, have for some reason always been in the $1.5-2 billion range) and bilateral brinkmanship. Yet somehow the gas continues to flow every year.

... such a juicy business attracts others keen to get in on the action. In Ukraine, political infighting can largely be understood, in my view, by the fight over who will be the Ukrainian counterparty to that Trade. (It's no coincidence that Yulia Timoschenko made her fortune in gas trading in the 90s, and that Yanukovich represents some of the largest gas-users from heavy-industry in Eastern Ukraine). In Russia, similarly, one has to go beyond the image of a monolithic Kremlin with its faithful Gazprom arm - both are rife with infighting and coalitions within both centers of power that come and go (as an example, just look how the 50% of Gazprom formally owned by the Russian State is split between at least two public bodies controlled by different senior Kremlin insiders).

So while the world is focused on the predictable public brinkmanship between Ukraine and Russia (Russia threatens, Ukraine appears to cave in at the last minute, but really doesn't, Russia cuts gas, Ukraine siphons gas, Russian is indignant, both sides make their case to Europe, Russia restores gas supplies, another meaningless agreement is announced), the real fight over the loot is taking place more discreetly between a few oligarchs in Moscow and Kiev. But nobody is talking about that. Which is the whole purpose of the theater show we are "offered."

Worries about Russia or Gazprom using the "gas weapon" against Europe are misplaced. In their official capacity, both are keenly aware of their absolute dependency on exports to Europe for a huge chunk of the country's income, and on the need for stable, reliable long term relationships to finance the investments needed in gas infrastructure (and they know their clients share that need). They are happy to play power politics with the West's worries as this goes down well with their own domestic audiences, but fundamentally they will not rock the gas boat.

Now, what is a lot more worrisome is that governments in Ukraine and Russia can tolerate--and indeed encourage--such blatant breaches of their authority and such large scale theft of what are effectively public resources. That the highest levels of government in both countries, and major bits of their infrastructure can be instrumentalised in what are disputes between unknown oligarchs only shows how little rule of law and accountability there is in these countries, and how powerless Putin really is when dealing with competing power factions.

Continue reading "Russia - Ukraine Gas Dispute: Follow The Money" »

January 02, 2009

Israel Claims Success In War Spin

Posted by Cernig

Apparently the PR offensive has been just as long in planning as the bombing campaign.

Fewer military officers; more women; tightly controlled messages; and ministers kept on a short leash. This was Israel’s new media game-plan in Operation Cast Lead.

The Gaza attack is the first major demonstration of Israel’s total overhaul of its ‘hasbara’ operation following the Second Lebanon War. While the military aspects of the operation were meticulously planned, a new forum of press advisers was also established which has been working for the past six months on a PR strategy specifically geared to dealing with the media during warfare in Gaza.

“Whenever Israel is bombing, it is hard to explain our position to the world,” said Avi Pazner, Israel’s former ambassador to Italy and France, and one of the officials drafted in to present Israel’s case to the world media. “But at least this time everything was ready and in place.”

One of the decisions taken following Israel’s failure to explain its case during the Lebanon War was the formation of a National Information Directorate within the Prime Minister’s Office, tasked with coordinating the efforts of the press bureaus in the various government departments.

The Directorate, which has been up and running for eight months, began planning six months ago for a Gaza operation. A forum with representatives of the press offices of the Foreign and Defence ministries, the IDF Spokesman Unit and other agencies held numerous meetings to decide on the message.

And if that doesn't make you question Israel's good faith in negotiations with the Palestinians, nothing will. According to polls, American opinion is split down the middle even as Congress keeps its lockstep opinion of "Israel, right or wrong".

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