I Called It

Last Wednesday, I wrote a post about the latest poll in Iowa, where I said...

Things aren't going well for the McCain campaign. His fundraising was disapointing in the first quarter, he skips out on his duties in the Senate, he is behind with his fundraising numbers in the second quarter, and now he is tumbling in the polls. I am predicting McCain will drop out of the race by the time the Iowa caucuses roll around.

Today, there is a story on Political Wire that backs this up...

John McCain "may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders," the Sunday Times of London reports.

The story is based almost entirely on buzz that McCain's fundraising for the second quarter will fall short. However, McCain's campaign "vigorously denied" the speculation.

New Iowa Poll

There is a new Mason-Dixon poll in Iowa that shows Hillary Clinton slightly leading John Edwards 22% to 21%. Obama comes in at 18%, followed by Richardson (6%) and Biden (4%). The most surprising thing with this poll is 27% of the people said they were undecided. In past polls, there has been less undecideds. Bleeding Heartland has more coverage of the Democratic side.

The big news on the Republican side isn't that Mitt Romney leads or that Fred Thompson is in 2nd without even campaigning here yet. The big news is that the assumed national front runner, John McCain is tied for 5th place with Sam Brownback with just 6%. Things aren't going well for the McCain campaign. His fundraising was disapointing in the first quarter, he skips out on his duties in the Senate, he is behind with his fundraising numbers in the second quarter, and now he is tumbling in the polls. I am predicting McCain will drop out of the race by the time the Iowa caucuses roll around.

Obama Tells McCain What it Really Means to Support Our Troops

One of the most impressive things with Barack Obama is that he isn't afraid to fight back when people question his character.

He first did it when Fox News ran the bogus madrassa story and then Obama said he would no longer grant them interviews. Then it was Obama fighting back after Austrailian Prime Minister John Howard attacked his stance on Iraq. Yesterday, in a speech in Chicago, Obama responds to John McCain after McCain questioned him about supporting the troops.

Grandpa Goes Off the Wall

In the past day, Political Wire has posted 2 crazy quotes from John McCain that deserved to be noticed.

First, McCain said this to Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) defending himself over having missed many of the negotiation sessions on the recent immigration bill.

Fuck you! I know more about this than anyone else in the room.

Then McCain had this comment about Mitt Romney...

Maybe Mitt should get out his small varmint gun and chase those Guatemalans off his yard.

McCain is starting to get angry. Not raising enough money, dropping in the polls? There will surely be more of this to come later on the campaign trail.

Latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll: A Look at the Republicans

Yesterday, I took a look at the latest poll in Iowa from Des Moines Register on the Democratic side. Today, it is the Republicans turn.

After looking at the poll numbers, there are 3 surprises. First, is Mitt Romney's jump in the polls to 1st place with 30%. Romney has failed to get above 20% in any other polls.

The second surprise was brought to my attention by Chris at MyDD. It seems that McCain and Rudy are stuck around 17-18% in the polls. Some of these polls have Gingrich and Fred Thompson, or just one of those, or neither of them and McCain and Rudy still get about 17-18%.

The differing results for Romney seem to be entirely based on the varying options presented to the apparently large Anyone But McCain and Giuliani vote among Iowa Republicans. Without Gingrich and F. Thompson, and thus fewer options to split that vote, Romney pulls in an impressive 30%.

As for the second tier candidates, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, and Tom Tancredo all polled between 7% and 4%. Thompson has put the most effort out of that group and he has the slight lead. I fully expect one of these 4 to make a move to the top tier, unless another candidate jumps in the race and steals their thunder. Tancredo might make a jump if their is strong opposition to the Immigration Bill not being strict enough.

Finally, the Register asked what candidates caucus goers would like to see enter the race. Three Republicans received more than 45% on this question, which shows that the Republicans aren't satisfied with their candidates. Condileeza Rice got 50%, Newt Gingrich got 48%, and Fred Thompson got 45%. I don't think these are perfect candidates for Republicans either.

McCain's Straight Talk Express Missing From the Senate

Sen. John McCain is running for president, but has seemed to forget his day job. Political Wire posted that McCain has gone 5 weeks without voting in the Senate, including yesterday's key votes on Iraq.

I know on the Democratic side, Senator Joe Biden has had to cancel a couple of trips to Iowa because he didn't want to miss votes in the Senate.

Maybe for someone like McCain, who is trying to run away from his voting record in the Senate, it doesn't make sense to be making more votes. Why produce more evidence that you lack the credentials to make it through a Conservative primary?

Thoughts on the Republican Debate

Tonights Republican debate was a lot better than the last one. The questions were better and the crowd was more involved.

Here are some thoughts I jotted down during the debate...

• Everytime I see Mike Huckabee, I wonder why he isn't gaining any traction. His counter to Rudy on abortion was clear and a lot better than Brownback's simplistic attempt.
  
• I think Rudy Giuliani won because of him interjecting on Paul's comment, even though I think Paul had an important point.
• Tancredo did pretty well. His line about people should have conversions on the road to Damascus and not on the road to Des Moines got a loud ovation and was a clear shot at McCain, Rudy, and multiple choice Mitt.
• I think Gilmore, Brownback, Tommy Thompson, and Hunter should drop out. Hunter might have some credibility on immigration, but is overshadowed by Tancredo.

I am getting just as much info from the interviews afterwards than I did from the debate. Here some interesting things from the interviews afterwards with Hannity and Colmes.

• Minutes after the debate, Carl Cameron says some South Carolina Republicans think some of the 2nd tier candidates should drop out. He then mentions Huckabee, Paul, and someone else that I don't remember.
• In the 20 minutes following the debate the Fox News reporters attack Paul for being anti-war 3 times.
• McCain did horrible in the interview when he said they will follow us here because they are evil and do evil things. I know 3 year old that show better reasoning. McCain finishes by saying he will be the last man standing in Iraq.
  
• Tancredo was interviewed and he seems to have a very similar stance on Iraq as many Democrats. Tancredo wants to disengage our military (i.e. redeploy our troops, but still go after al Queda).
• When asked how he will move out of the 2nd tier, Tancredo says he needs to do well in the Iowa Straw Poll by getting in the top 5.
• Sean Hannity and Ron Paul are tearing each other a part about being anti-war in the interview afterward. Hannity's being his usually self and not letting Paul respond. Colmes steps in and makes the point that Paul was trying to make and then Colmes cuts to the commercial.
• I think Gilmore, Brownback, Tommy Thompson, and Hunter should drop out. Hunter might have some credibility on immigration, but is overshadowed by Tancredo.

Bomb Iran? McCain Thinks it is a Joking Matter

McCain responds to a question about bombing Iran by joking about the Beach Boy song Barbara Ann by singing "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran."



McCain isn't do himself any favors. If he isn't off pandering to the religous right then he is trying to sound more macho when it comes to war. All McCain is doing is digging himself into a deeper hole. Rudy has surpassed him in the polls. His fundraising numbers were lower than expected, and he spent a lot of money already. Should we be taking bets to see if McCain even makes it to the Iowa Caucuses?

McCain's Falling, Will He be Able to Get Back Up?

I wrote about McCain's gaffe's and obvious pandering last week at campaign stops in Iowa. Today, I found this story about McCain not hitting his fundraising goals and Mitt Romney raising more money than McCain. From Political Wire...

"Some Republicans estimate that Romney, whose network of friends, business contacts and party donors is expansive, could accumulate more than $30 or even $35 million this quarter. McCain is not likely to raise in excess of $30M, according to Republicans outside his campaign who have been given the unofficial estimate." The deadline for campaigns to report their earnings to the FEC is March 31.

There was also news this week that Rudy Giuliani gaining on and expanding his leads on McCain all over the nation, including closing the gap in McCain's home state of Arizona. A poll of Democratic insiders done this week also saw the number of people who thought McCain was the strongest candidate fall from 73% to 17% in just 3 months.

McCain's campaign is falling. Will he be able to get back up?

Hop on Board the Straight Talk Express

This is pretty amazing that a person running for President would give this bad of answer to a question. Here is an exchange that took place this week at an event in Iowa. From DailyKos...

In yet another example of straight talk from John McCain, here's his take on contraceptives and HIV/AIDS prevention:

Q: "What about grants for sex education in the United States? Should they include instructions about using contraceptives? Or should it be Bush’s policy, which is just abstinence?"

Mr. McCain: (Long pause) "Ahhh. I think I support the president’s policy."

Q: "So no contraception, no counseling on contraception. Just abstinence. Do you think contraceptives help stop the spread of HIV?"

Mr. McCain: (Long pause) "You’ve stumped me."

Q: "I mean, I think you’d probably agree it probably does help stop it?"

Mr. McCain: (Laughs) "Are we on the Straight Talk express? I’m not informed enough on it. Let me find out. You know, I’m sure I’ve taken a position on it on the past. I have to find out what my position was. Brian, would you find out what my position is on contraception – I’m sure I’m opposed to government spending on it, I’m sure I support the president’s policies on it."

Q: "But you would agree that condoms do stop the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Would you say: ‘No, we’re not going to distribute them,’ knowing that?"

Mr. McCain: (Twelve-second pause) "Get me Coburn’s thing, ask Weaver to get me Coburn’s paper that he just gave me in the last couple of days. I’ve never gotten into these issues before."

He's not sure if condoms can stop the spread of sexually transmitted diseases? Is he really that stupid or just willing to look that way in his ongoing effort to pander to the Republican base?

Add this questions to his tar baby comment and it is easy to tell why McCain is falling in the polls.

McCain is torn between doing what he has done his entire career and pandering to the right-wing fringe that holds the noose around the Republican Party's neck. It has gotten so bad, the old man doesn't know what he thinks anymore.